‘China’s export boom can hardly be called protectionist’.
Wonder whether @michaelpettis.bsky.social would agree with this description in this weekend’s FT leader
Wonder whether @michaelpettis.bsky.social would agree with this description in this weekend’s FT leader
April 28, 2024 at 8:55 AM
‘China’s export boom can hardly be called protectionist’.
Wonder whether @michaelpettis.bsky.social would agree with this description in this weekend’s FT leader
Wonder whether @michaelpettis.bsky.social would agree with this description in this weekend’s FT leader
This pic from Obstfeld's recent NBER paper captures what I meant about the impact of savings policy on the current account deficit @curr.bsky.social (also of interest @johnspringford.bsky.social). If shift the savings schedule out in 'home', r drops, CA imbalance disappears
April 3, 2024 at 1:58 PM
This pic from Obstfeld's recent NBER paper captures what I meant about the impact of savings policy on the current account deficit @curr.bsky.social (also of interest @johnspringford.bsky.social). If shift the savings schedule out in 'home', r drops, CA imbalance disappears
I'm sure it need fixing, but this housing story would be much less exciting if it mentioned the actual rate of household growth this century (c.150k/yr) and ONS projections of 160k/yr
At roughly 220k/yr, net additions have far exceeded those rates over the past decade
www.ft.com/content/1977...
At roughly 220k/yr, net additions have far exceeded those rates over the past decade
www.ft.com/content/1977...
January 3, 2024 at 12:29 PM
I'm sure it need fixing, but this housing story would be much less exciting if it mentioned the actual rate of household growth this century (c.150k/yr) and ONS projections of 160k/yr
At roughly 220k/yr, net additions have far exceeded those rates over the past decade
www.ft.com/content/1977...
At roughly 220k/yr, net additions have far exceeded those rates over the past decade
www.ft.com/content/1977...
The chancellor's boost to LHA offers only a temporary reprieve on rent affordability.
Here's the summary and report:
www.generationrent.org/2023/12/08/t...
Here's the summary and report:
www.generationrent.org/2023/12/08/t...
December 8, 2023 at 2:21 PM
The chancellor's boost to LHA offers only a temporary reprieve on rent affordability.
Here's the summary and report:
www.generationrent.org/2023/12/08/t...
Here's the summary and report:
www.generationrent.org/2023/12/08/t...
NEW: Generation Rent's new rent forecast is just out on ITV news
We show that rents are likely to rise more than 14% above next April's Local Housing Allowance levels within just 18 months, taking affordability back to current unsustainable levels
www.itv.com/news/2023-12...
We show that rents are likely to rise more than 14% above next April's Local Housing Allowance levels within just 18 months, taking affordability back to current unsustainable levels
www.itv.com/news/2023-12...
December 8, 2023 at 2:19 PM
NEW: Generation Rent's new rent forecast is just out on ITV news
We show that rents are likely to rise more than 14% above next April's Local Housing Allowance levels within just 18 months, taking affordability back to current unsustainable levels
www.itv.com/news/2023-12...
We show that rents are likely to rise more than 14% above next April's Local Housing Allowance levels within just 18 months, taking affordability back to current unsustainable levels
www.itv.com/news/2023-12...
There's big politics here. If the OBR were to downgrade potential output growth by 0.1% from the current 1.6% that would take about £10bn off the chancellor's fiscal headroom.
If they were to split the difference with the Bank's view of 0.7-0.8%, the Budget would be *very* difficult
If they were to split the difference with the Bank's view of 0.7-0.8%, the Budget would be *very* difficult
December 2, 2023 at 2:46 PM
There's big politics here. If the OBR were to downgrade potential output growth by 0.1% from the current 1.6% that would take about £10bn off the chancellor's fiscal headroom.
If they were to split the difference with the Bank's view of 0.7-0.8%, the Budget would be *very* difficult
If they were to split the difference with the Bank's view of 0.7-0.8%, the Budget would be *very* difficult
Did you see the latest rent data? On dwelling stock, London is not an outlier from rest of England- stock grew faster than households
December 2, 2023 at 1:47 PM
Did you see the latest rent data? On dwelling stock, London is not an outlier from rest of England- stock grew faster than households
Hard to see what would have changed in the real world over October to alter size of the 'higher borrowing' bars substantially here.
So the action was presumably coming from the 'lower borrowing' bars. But £50bn of action??
So the action was presumably coming from the 'lower borrowing' bars. But £50bn of action??
November 30, 2023 at 8:43 AM
Hard to see what would have changed in the real world over October to alter size of the 'higher borrowing' bars substantially here.
So the action was presumably coming from the 'lower borrowing' bars. But £50bn of action??
So the action was presumably coming from the 'lower borrowing' bars. But £50bn of action??
Autumn Statement press reports told us headroom increased from 1st to final versions of the forecast from roughly -£20bn to +£30bn
What caused the shift? Gilt yields fairly steady since late summer. Was it upward revisions to the inflation forecast? Something else?
What caused the shift? Gilt yields fairly steady since late summer. Was it upward revisions to the inflation forecast? Something else?
November 30, 2023 at 8:42 AM
Autumn Statement press reports told us headroom increased from 1st to final versions of the forecast from roughly -£20bn to +£30bn
What caused the shift? Gilt yields fairly steady since late summer. Was it upward revisions to the inflation forecast? Something else?
What caused the shift? Gilt yields fairly steady since late summer. Was it upward revisions to the inflation forecast? Something else?
Great stuff from @rafaelbehr.bsky.social
Big picture is that 13 years’ economic stagnation has destroyed the centre right. Now set for a fight between radical econ liberals, nativists and fatalists
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Big picture is that 13 years’ economic stagnation has destroyed the centre right. Now set for a fight between radical econ liberals, nativists and fatalists
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
November 29, 2023 at 5:32 PM
Great stuff from @rafaelbehr.bsky.social
Big picture is that 13 years’ economic stagnation has destroyed the centre right. Now set for a fight between radical econ liberals, nativists and fatalists
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Big picture is that 13 years’ economic stagnation has destroyed the centre right. Now set for a fight between radical econ liberals, nativists and fatalists
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Sources and broad method description here
November 23, 2023 at 10:49 PM
Sources and broad method description here
This is a standard finding. DLUHC previously said the sensitivity between households and prices (different but v similar) is 1 to 2 vs New Zealand's 1 to 1.5
And @OxfordEconomics study for Redfern Review (which I led) found 1 to 1.7 on hholds to rent assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5ad0a7...
And @OxfordEconomics study for Redfern Review (which I led) found 1 to 1.7 on hholds to rent assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5ad0a7...
November 23, 2023 at 10:47 PM
This is a standard finding. DLUHC previously said the sensitivity between households and prices (different but v similar) is 1 to 2 vs New Zealand's 1 to 1.5
And @OxfordEconomics study for Redfern Review (which I led) found 1 to 1.7 on hholds to rent assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5ad0a7...
And @OxfordEconomics study for Redfern Review (which I led) found 1 to 1.7 on hholds to rent assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5ad0a7...
It finds that a 1% increase in people per dwelling pushes up rent by 1.5%
November 23, 2023 at 10:46 PM
It finds that a 1% increase in people per dwelling pushes up rent by 1.5%
Today's immigration numbers were well above the ones in the ONS population projections, so that's caused pop per dwelling to rise in 2022-23 (blue line), but not by much.
And experts see these numbers dropping back to previous projections (method/sources at the end)
And experts see these numbers dropping back to previous projections (method/sources at the end)
November 23, 2023 at 10:44 PM
Today's immigration numbers were well above the ones in the ONS population projections, so that's caused pop per dwelling to rise in 2022-23 (blue line), but not by much.
And experts see these numbers dropping back to previous projections (method/sources at the end)
And experts see these numbers dropping back to previous projections (method/sources at the end)
Immigration and housing is political 🧨
There's been some hyperbole about today's +670k immigration and housing costs. But DONT PANIC! Here's why:
1st look at the past 24 years. Generally population has grown slower than housing stock. Houses per person are +2.7% over 2000-22
There's been some hyperbole about today's +670k immigration and housing costs. But DONT PANIC! Here's why:
1st look at the past 24 years. Generally population has grown slower than housing stock. Houses per person are +2.7% over 2000-22
November 23, 2023 at 10:43 PM
Immigration and housing is political 🧨
There's been some hyperbole about today's +670k immigration and housing costs. But DONT PANIC! Here's why:
1st look at the past 24 years. Generally population has grown slower than housing stock. Houses per person are +2.7% over 2000-22
There's been some hyperbole about today's +670k immigration and housing costs. But DONT PANIC! Here's why:
1st look at the past 24 years. Generally population has grown slower than housing stock. Houses per person are +2.7% over 2000-22
3. What are the projections for sickness/disability?
We know there'll be some tough talk about 'lifestyle choices' *sigh*. But big Q is whether OBR/DWP still expect the alarming deterioration in the health of the population forecast back in March
We know there'll be some tough talk about 'lifestyle choices' *sigh*. But big Q is whether OBR/DWP still expect the alarming deterioration in the health of the population forecast back in March
November 22, 2023 at 11:01 AM
3. What are the projections for sickness/disability?
We know there'll be some tough talk about 'lifestyle choices' *sigh*. But big Q is whether OBR/DWP still expect the alarming deterioration in the health of the population forecast back in March
We know there'll be some tough talk about 'lifestyle choices' *sigh*. But big Q is whether OBR/DWP still expect the alarming deterioration in the health of the population forecast back in March
2. What are public services spending plans?
1% real growth in dept spending post 2025 was always undeliverable.
But what matters even more is inflation eroding budgets *before 2025* which form the baseline. This is where headroom shd be spent. Will there be some realism here?
1% real growth in dept spending post 2025 was always undeliverable.
But what matters even more is inflation eroding budgets *before 2025* which form the baseline. This is where headroom shd be spent. Will there be some realism here?
November 22, 2023 at 11:00 AM
2. What are public services spending plans?
1% real growth in dept spending post 2025 was always undeliverable.
But what matters even more is inflation eroding budgets *before 2025* which form the baseline. This is where headroom shd be spent. Will there be some realism here?
1% real growth in dept spending post 2025 was always undeliverable.
But what matters even more is inflation eroding budgets *before 2025* which form the baseline. This is where headroom shd be spent. Will there be some realism here?
1. What does OBR say about the sustainable rate of growth?
Ignore short-term growth forecasts. What matters for our prosperity is 'potential' economic growth. And the OBR has tended to be way too optimistic, much more than the Bank
Will they downgrade that today?
Ignore short-term growth forecasts. What matters for our prosperity is 'potential' economic growth. And the OBR has tended to be way too optimistic, much more than the Bank
Will they downgrade that today?
November 22, 2023 at 10:59 AM
1. What does OBR say about the sustainable rate of growth?
Ignore short-term growth forecasts. What matters for our prosperity is 'potential' economic growth. And the OBR has tended to be way too optimistic, much more than the Bank
Will they downgrade that today?
Ignore short-term growth forecasts. What matters for our prosperity is 'potential' economic growth. And the OBR has tended to be way too optimistic, much more than the Bank
Will they downgrade that today?
Maude's review proposes taking departmental spending control out of the Treasury:
👍if you think HMT control cuts cross-government collaboration, over-centralises or creates excessive risk aversion (eg on preventative spend)
👎if you think it reduces control over spending and hampers coordination
👍if you think HMT control cuts cross-government collaboration, over-centralises or creates excessive risk aversion (eg on preventative spend)
👎if you think it reduces control over spending and hampers coordination
November 15, 2023 at 4:25 PM
Maude's review proposes taking departmental spending control out of the Treasury:
👍if you think HMT control cuts cross-government collaboration, over-centralises or creates excessive risk aversion (eg on preventative spend)
👎if you think it reduces control over spending and hampers coordination
👍if you think HMT control cuts cross-government collaboration, over-centralises or creates excessive risk aversion (eg on preventative spend)
👎if you think it reduces control over spending and hampers coordination
This is a fairly dire picture - wellbeing measures at pandemic lows.
There's been a 5.5% increase in number of adults reporting medium/high anxiety since before the pandemic. That's about 2.9 million more people
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
There's been a 5.5% increase in number of adults reporting medium/high anxiety since before the pandemic. That's about 2.9 million more people
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
November 7, 2023 at 10:38 AM
This is a fairly dire picture - wellbeing measures at pandemic lows.
There's been a 5.5% increase in number of adults reporting medium/high anxiety since before the pandemic. That's about 2.9 million more people
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
There's been a 5.5% increase in number of adults reporting medium/high anxiety since before the pandemic. That's about 2.9 million more people
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
Increasingly clear we've unbalanced the politics of public spending
Pre-2010, govs could make spend plans look viable by massaging economic forecasts. Now the OBR stops that, so fantasy spending plans make the numbers stack up. More politically potent
Needs an institutional fix to rebalance it
Pre-2010, govs could make spend plans look viable by massaging economic forecasts. Now the OBR stops that, so fantasy spending plans make the numbers stack up. More politically potent
Needs an institutional fix to rebalance it
November 6, 2023 at 10:08 AM
Increasingly clear we've unbalanced the politics of public spending
Pre-2010, govs could make spend plans look viable by massaging economic forecasts. Now the OBR stops that, so fantasy spending plans make the numbers stack up. More politically potent
Needs an institutional fix to rebalance it
Pre-2010, govs could make spend plans look viable by massaging economic forecasts. Now the OBR stops that, so fantasy spending plans make the numbers stack up. More politically potent
Needs an institutional fix to rebalance it
Great piece. Obvs long-term real gilt yields have moved a lot more than this estimated r* change
So say you have long-term real gilt yields at -2%, policy rate at -1% and model tells you r* is 0%, is policy tight or loose?
So say you have long-term real gilt yields at -2%, policy rate at -1% and model tells you r* is 0%, is policy tight or loose?
November 2, 2023 at 11:04 PM
Great piece. Obvs long-term real gilt yields have moved a lot more than this estimated r* change
So say you have long-term real gilt yields at -2%, policy rate at -1% and model tells you r* is 0%, is policy tight or loose?
So say you have long-term real gilt yields at -2%, policy rate at -1% and model tells you r* is 0%, is policy tight or loose?
Missed this at the time, but 'ONS merch' and tote bags to get people to respond to surveys?!
I mean I'd love an ONS tote bag but suspect I'm in a minority... Surely we can do better than this to get households to respond?
I mean I'd love an ONS tote bag but suspect I'm in a minority... Surely we can do better than this to get households to respond?
November 2, 2023 at 3:46 PM
Missed this at the time, but 'ONS merch' and tote bags to get people to respond to surveys?!
I mean I'd love an ONS tote bag but suspect I'm in a minority... Surely we can do better than this to get households to respond?
I mean I'd love an ONS tote bag but suspect I'm in a minority... Surely we can do better than this to get households to respond?
Sobering picture from the Bank. Look at that projection for household consumption! It makes the 2010s look like a land of milk and honey
Also concerning given our investment needs as a country: if investment is to rise household consumption will probably end up even lower. Let's hope it's wrong
Also concerning given our investment needs as a country: if investment is to rise household consumption will probably end up even lower. Let's hope it's wrong
November 2, 2023 at 1:46 PM
Sobering picture from the Bank. Look at that projection for household consumption! It makes the 2010s look like a land of milk and honey
Also concerning given our investment needs as a country: if investment is to rise household consumption will probably end up even lower. Let's hope it's wrong
Also concerning given our investment needs as a country: if investment is to rise household consumption will probably end up even lower. Let's hope it's wrong
Full report is available here, where you can find out why it is that the *least* wealthy nations/regions have seen the *biggest* wealth shock since interest rates started to rise… 🤯
www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/...
www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/...
October 30, 2023 at 5:23 PM
Full report is available here, where you can find out why it is that the *least* wealthy nations/regions have seen the *biggest* wealth shock since interest rates started to rise… 🤯
www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/...
www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/...