@hannibalrex.bsky.social
Being vindicated is the pessimist's consolation prize for not being surprised.
Valuing privacy over networking, for the time being.
Valuing privacy over networking, for the time being.
Reposted
Some 100K Karabakh Armenians left when Baku regained the territory in 2023. In Armenia today, their aid is shrinking & Yerevan is focused on peace talks & elections. On the new @crisisgroup.org War & Peace podcast, Alissa de Carbonnel & I discuss the implications with @joshuakucera.bsky.social
Karabakh Refugees in Armenia | International Crisis Group
This week on War & Peace, Olga and Alissa speak with Crisis Group expert Joshua Kucera about the challenges facing refugees who fled Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia after Azerbaijan regained the territory...
www.crisisgroup.org
December 16, 2025 at 5:52 PM
Some 100K Karabakh Armenians left when Baku regained the territory in 2023. In Armenia today, their aid is shrinking & Yerevan is focused on peace talks & elections. On the new @crisisgroup.org War & Peace podcast, Alissa de Carbonnel & I discuss the implications with @joshuakucera.bsky.social
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I assumed the NSS would just ignore/deprioritize Europe (It did that on defense/NATO).
But the actual message was: Europe matters to us, we must save it from itself, the EU and its wokeness. Thus, the USG is going all in on foreign interference to help the far-right win a civilizational war.
But the actual message was: Europe matters to us, we must save it from itself, the EU and its wokeness. Thus, the USG is going all in on foreign interference to help the far-right win a civilizational war.
a man with a mustache is wearing a white shirt and a blue sweater .
ALT: a man with a mustache is wearing a white shirt and a blue sweater .
media.tenor.com
December 5, 2025 at 4:34 PM
I assumed the NSS would just ignore/deprioritize Europe (It did that on defense/NATO).
But the actual message was: Europe matters to us, we must save it from itself, the EU and its wokeness. Thus, the USG is going all in on foreign interference to help the far-right win a civilizational war.
But the actual message was: Europe matters to us, we must save it from itself, the EU and its wokeness. Thus, the USG is going all in on foreign interference to help the far-right win a civilizational war.
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A scenario where no one trusts any statistical data produced by the US government will do remarkable things to the US government's position on global bond markets
August 1, 2025 at 10:55 PM
A scenario where no one trusts any statistical data produced by the US government will do remarkable things to the US government's position on global bond markets
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Neuer Podcast: Ich habe mit @aphclarkson.bsky.social über die Ukraine gesprochen. Die Zeit danach, die sich nun definiert wie auch die Probleme der wenig beachteten Innenpolitik und Europas langsamer Weg in gen Hilfe foreigntimes.de/2025/07/28/f...
ForeignTimes086 mit Alexander Clarkson über die Schwierigkeiten der Ukraine
Alexander Clarkson und Marco Herack fragen sich, ob Europa endlich umsetzt was seit 3 Jahren sichtbar ist sowie den fehlenden Blick auf die Innenpolitik der Ukraine.
foreigntimes.de
July 28, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Neuer Podcast: Ich habe mit @aphclarkson.bsky.social über die Ukraine gesprochen. Die Zeit danach, die sich nun definiert wie auch die Probleme der wenig beachteten Innenpolitik und Europas langsamer Weg in gen Hilfe foreigntimes.de/2025/07/28/f...
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The newsletter's back -- with a dive into the tortured psyches of Sergei Karaganov, Konstantin Malofeev and Russia's surprisingly anxious and fractured conservatives.
tldrussia.substack.com/p/tldrussia-...
tldrussia.substack.com/p/tldrussia-...
TL;DRussia Weekly Roundup
15 July 2025: En garde, plus texts and tunes
tldrussia.substack.com
July 15, 2025 at 1:11 PM
The newsletter's back -- with a dive into the tortured psyches of Sergei Karaganov, Konstantin Malofeev and Russia's surprisingly anxious and fractured conservatives.
tldrussia.substack.com/p/tldrussia-...
tldrussia.substack.com/p/tldrussia-...
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Do domestic politics in Russia matter for Moscow's foreign policy, and if so, when and how? Excited to take part in this conversation with Alexander Baunov of @carnegieendowment.org in Brussels next Thursday. If you're also in Brussels next Thursday, join us in person! If you're not, join us online
Russia’s Internal Front: Perspectives Beyond the Kremlin Line
More than three years into the war, Russian society reveals a complex mix of voices beneath the Kremlin’s tight control. These internal dynamics are also shaping Moscow’s stance in peace negotiations ...
carnegieendowment.org
June 20, 2025 at 3:17 PM
Do domestic politics in Russia matter for Moscow's foreign policy, and if so, when and how? Excited to take part in this conversation with Alexander Baunov of @carnegieendowment.org in Brussels next Thursday. If you're also in Brussels next Thursday, join us in person! If you're not, join us online
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On @crisisgroup.org Hold Your Fire podcast, @stevepomper.bsky.social & I join Richard Atwood to talk Ukraine's negotiations with Americans, American negotiations with Russians, European leverage, & all the rest of it.
What Hope Do the Ceasefire Proposal and Minerals Deal Offer Ukraine? | Crisis Group
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Olga Oliker and Stephen Pomper about Donald Trump’s ceasefire proposal for Ukraine, Kyiv’s and Europe’s response, the U.S.-Ukrain...
www.crisisgroup.org
May 3, 2025 at 11:52 AM
On @crisisgroup.org Hold Your Fire podcast, @stevepomper.bsky.social & I join Richard Atwood to talk Ukraine's negotiations with Americans, American negotiations with Russians, European leverage, & all the rest of it.
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The longer we delay this debate—particularly in Berlin—the more apparent it becomes that either Germany does not view Ukraine as crucial to Europe’s security architecture as its rhetoric suggests,...
February 17, 2025 at 6:52 PM
The longer we delay this debate—particularly in Berlin—the more apparent it becomes that either Germany does not view Ukraine as crucial to Europe’s security architecture as its rhetoric suggests,...
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1/ Es geht wahrscheinlich in der Trump-Sause unter, aber diese Woche scheiterten auch die Koalitionsverhandlungen zwischen #FPO und #OVP.
Einige Details sind durchaus Interessant, gerade für die 🇩🇪 Diskussion, die 🇦🇹 mal als Vorbild mal als Schreckgespenst sieht, ohne auf die Details zu achten.
Einige Details sind durchaus Interessant, gerade für die 🇩🇪 Diskussion, die 🇦🇹 mal als Vorbild mal als Schreckgespenst sieht, ohne auf die Details zu achten.
February 14, 2025 at 10:06 AM
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My latest piece for Foreign Policy, adapted from my book, argues that by avoiding any semblance of preparation for the eventuality of war, Germany has stripped itself of the ability to deter one. This makes war in Europe more likely, not less. foreignpolicy.com/2025/01/24/g...
Don’t Talk About the War
The German political establishment has no idea what war looks like today—and doesn’t want to know.
foreignpolicy.com
January 27, 2025 at 6:01 AM
My latest piece for Foreign Policy, adapted from my book, argues that by avoiding any semblance of preparation for the eventuality of war, Germany has stripped itself of the ability to deter one. This makes war in Europe more likely, not less. foreignpolicy.com/2025/01/24/g...
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*MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA..* The New Year’s tumult continues. The People’s Party (ÖVP) has lifted its embargo on the prospect of a coalition with the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) that will see party leader Herbert Kickl become chancellor. How did we get here and what is the outlook? 1/
January 6, 2025 at 10:36 AM
*MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA..* The New Year’s tumult continues. The People’s Party (ÖVP) has lifted its embargo on the prospect of a coalition with the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) that will see party leader Herbert Kickl become chancellor. How did we get here and what is the outlook? 1/
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Very interesting post on the (ignored) importance of masculinity and male flight in the discussion about college enrollment. Highly recommended reading. 👇
Why aren't we talking about the real reason male college enrollment is dropping?
We would rather talk about literally everything else.
celestemdavis.substack.com
January 1, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Very interesting post on the (ignored) importance of masculinity and male flight in the discussion about college enrollment. Highly recommended reading. 👇
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Le livre de Paul d'Anieri est pour moi LE livre à lire pour comprendre les origines du conflit Russo-Ukrainien.
Près de 30 d'une relation complexe, déchirée entre le désir d'indépendance de l'un et la volonté de garder son statut de puissance mondiale pour l'autre.
Près de 30 d'une relation complexe, déchirée entre le désir d'indépendance de l'un et la volonté de garder son statut de puissance mondiale pour l'autre.
December 11, 2024 at 2:31 PM
Le livre de Paul d'Anieri est pour moi LE livre à lire pour comprendre les origines du conflit Russo-Ukrainien.
Près de 30 d'une relation complexe, déchirée entre le désir d'indépendance de l'un et la volonté de garder son statut de puissance mondiale pour l'autre.
Près de 30 d'une relation complexe, déchirée entre le désir d'indépendance de l'un et la volonté de garder son statut de puissance mondiale pour l'autre.
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Folks I have some extremely important news: guess what is on Prime
November 27, 2024 at 10:25 AM
Folks I have some extremely important news: guess what is on Prime
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A special year end episode of @crisisgroup.org War & Peace! It's @luciankim.bsky.social on his new book, Putin's Revenge: Why Russia Invaded Ukraine. Come for the Orange revolution & Donbas on the eve of war in 2014, first-hand. Stay for Lucian on researching & writing a book!
Lucian Kim on Russia, Ukraine and His New Book “Putin’s Revenge” | Crisis Group
This week on War & Peace, Olga talks with Crisis Group’s senior Ukraine analyst Lucian Kim about his new book “Putin’s Revenge: Why Russia Invaded Ukraine” and his experience as a journalist covering key events in Russia and Ukraine in the lead-up to full-scale war in 2022.
www.crisisgroup.org
December 17, 2024 at 7:16 PM
A special year end episode of @crisisgroup.org War & Peace! It's @luciankim.bsky.social on his new book, Putin's Revenge: Why Russia Invaded Ukraine. Come for the Orange revolution & Donbas on the eve of war in 2014, first-hand. Stay for Lucian on researching & writing a book!
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Absolutely Mike. I remember the same divide over Bosnia in early 90s, and emergence of the term 'compassion fatigue.'
DEFINITION: Compassion fatigue is the exhaustion and disconnection that result from prolonged exposure to other people's trauma.
DEFINITION: Compassion fatigue is the exhaustion and disconnection that result from prolonged exposure to other people's trauma.
December 6, 2024 at 3:52 PM
Absolutely Mike. I remember the same divide over Bosnia in early 90s, and emergence of the term 'compassion fatigue.'
DEFINITION: Compassion fatigue is the exhaustion and disconnection that result from prolonged exposure to other people's trauma.
DEFINITION: Compassion fatigue is the exhaustion and disconnection that result from prolonged exposure to other people's trauma.
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This coup could have been an email
December 3, 2024 at 9:29 PM
This coup could have been an email
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While this may well reflect the mood in the Kremlin, it’s worth remembering that nobody speaks for Putin but Putin. And even Putin doesn’t always speak for Putin.
Trump’s pledge to end Russia’s war in Ukraine is doomed if he doesn't involve broader talks on Moscow’s security concerns, Russian tycoon Malofeyev tells @maxseddon.bsky.social. “[Keith] Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and then tell him to screw himself."
www.ft.com/content/ac39...
www.ft.com/content/ac39...
Vladimir Putin to reject Donald Trump’s opening peace offer, says Russian tycoon
Konstantin Malofeyev says Russian president to engage in talks only if they include broader conflicts
www.ft.com
December 3, 2024 at 10:28 AM
While this may well reflect the mood in the Kremlin, it’s worth remembering that nobody speaks for Putin but Putin. And even Putin doesn’t always speak for Putin.
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Short but important mini-thread:
People often ask me for book recommendations on the history of the Donbas, mostly in the post-Soviet/Independent UA era but also in general. Problem with this is most of the literature isnt translated to English. EXCEPT FOR TWO GREAT BOOKS THAT YOU ALL SHOULD READ:
People often ask me for book recommendations on the history of the Donbas, mostly in the post-Soviet/Independent UA era but also in general. Problem with this is most of the literature isnt translated to English. EXCEPT FOR TWO GREAT BOOKS THAT YOU ALL SHOULD READ:
November 27, 2024 at 9:30 AM
Short but important mini-thread:
People often ask me for book recommendations on the history of the Donbas, mostly in the post-Soviet/Independent UA era but also in general. Problem with this is most of the literature isnt translated to English. EXCEPT FOR TWO GREAT BOOKS THAT YOU ALL SHOULD READ:
People often ask me for book recommendations on the history of the Donbas, mostly in the post-Soviet/Independent UA era but also in general. Problem with this is most of the literature isnt translated to English. EXCEPT FOR TWO GREAT BOOKS THAT YOU ALL SHOULD READ:
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As previously promised, some thoughts on Russia's new nuclear doctrine, RS-26, & the Russo-Ukrainian war. A 🧵
1) on doctrine, @shakirov2036.bsky.social's thread of 19 Nov does a great side-by-side of what's changed. I won't recreate it. I'll just highlight what I think matters most
1/15
1) on doctrine, @shakirov2036.bsky.social's thread of 19 Nov does a great side-by-side of what's changed. I won't recreate it. I'll just highlight what I think matters most
1/15
November 24, 2024 at 10:47 PM
As previously promised, some thoughts on Russia's new nuclear doctrine, RS-26, & the Russo-Ukrainian war. A 🧵
1) on doctrine, @shakirov2036.bsky.social's thread of 19 Nov does a great side-by-side of what's changed. I won't recreate it. I'll just highlight what I think matters most
1/15
1) on doctrine, @shakirov2036.bsky.social's thread of 19 Nov does a great side-by-side of what's changed. I won't recreate it. I'll just highlight what I think matters most
1/15
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The ICC arrest warrants for Netanyahu & Gallant is a moment of clarity in world politics.
It sorts out those who oppose war criminality of any type from those who oppose only the war criminality of enemy states.
Quo vadis Euro-Atlanticism?
It sorts out those who oppose war criminality of any type from those who oppose only the war criminality of enemy states.
Quo vadis Euro-Atlanticism?
November 21, 2024 at 6:44 PM
The ICC arrest warrants for Netanyahu & Gallant is a moment of clarity in world politics.
It sorts out those who oppose war criminality of any type from those who oppose only the war criminality of enemy states.
Quo vadis Euro-Atlanticism?
It sorts out those who oppose war criminality of any type from those who oppose only the war criminality of enemy states.
Quo vadis Euro-Atlanticism?
