Guillermo Íñiguez
@guilleiniguez.bsky.social
EU Law at University of Oxford, now at Spanish MFA. EU governance, European politics, democratic backsliding. All views my own.
Escribo sobre Europa en El Correo, El País, Política & Prosa, etc.
Escribo sobre Europa en El Correo, El País, Política & Prosa, etc.
One of the keys (perhaps *the* key) to today's election will be whether 5 or 6/7 parties enter the Bundestag.
If 5 get in (CDU, SPD, Greens, Linke and AfD), a new Grand Coalition is likely.
If 6/7 (FDP and/or BSW) get in, a 3-party deal will be necessary - and things will get messier.
If 5 get in (CDU, SPD, Greens, Linke and AfD), a new Grand Coalition is likely.
If 6/7 (FDP and/or BSW) get in, a 3-party deal will be necessary - and things will get messier.
February 23, 2025 at 8:53 AM
One of the keys (perhaps *the* key) to today's election will be whether 5 or 6/7 parties enter the Bundestag.
If 5 get in (CDU, SPD, Greens, Linke and AfD), a new Grand Coalition is likely.
If 6/7 (FDP and/or BSW) get in, a 3-party deal will be necessary - and things will get messier.
If 5 get in (CDU, SPD, Greens, Linke and AfD), a new Grand Coalition is likely.
If 6/7 (FDP and/or BSW) get in, a 3-party deal will be necessary - and things will get messier.
Una de las claves (quizás *la* clave) en las elecciones de hoy será si entran 5 o 6/7 partidos en el Bundestag.
Si entran 5 (CDU, SPD, Verdes, Izquierda y AfD), lo probable será una nueva Gran Coalición.
Si entran 6/7 (FDP y/o BSW), hará falta un tripartito y todo se complicará.
Si entran 5 (CDU, SPD, Verdes, Izquierda y AfD), lo probable será una nueva Gran Coalición.
Si entran 6/7 (FDP y/o BSW), hará falta un tripartito y todo se complicará.
Alemania frente al espejo.
La clave estará en que el nuevo gobierno federal, previsiblemente encabezado por Friedrich Merz, logre salir de la crisis estructural que atraviesa el país.
Por @guilleiniguez.bsky.social.
politicaprosa.com/es/alemania-...
La clave estará en que el nuevo gobierno federal, previsiblemente encabezado por Friedrich Merz, logre salir de la crisis estructural que atraviesa el país.
Por @guilleiniguez.bsky.social.
politicaprosa.com/es/alemania-...
Alemania frente al espejo | política&prosa
El pasado 6 de noviembre, pocas horas después de la victoria de Donald Trump, el Gobierno alemán colapsó. Hacía meses que sus propios integrantes advertían de su fragilidad. La coalición «semáforo»…
politicaprosa.com
February 23, 2025 at 8:48 AM
Una de las claves (quizás *la* clave) en las elecciones de hoy será si entran 5 o 6/7 partidos en el Bundestag.
Si entran 5 (CDU, SPD, Verdes, Izquierda y AfD), lo probable será una nueva Gran Coalición.
Si entran 6/7 (FDP y/o BSW), hará falta un tripartito y todo se complicará.
Si entran 5 (CDU, SPD, Verdes, Izquierda y AfD), lo probable será una nueva Gran Coalición.
Si entran 6/7 (FDP y/o BSW), hará falta un tripartito y todo se complicará.
I agree: this is probably the best (realistic) scenario we can hope for today.
My *hope* today (but pragmatic, so actually possible), as a Grüne voter (and member) is this:
5 parties get into the Bundestag (Linke get in)
CDU-SPD get enough seats to form a coalition, and they do it
Grüne and Linke play a role as a solid opposition
5 parties get into the Bundestag (Linke get in)
CDU-SPD get enough seats to form a coalition, and they do it
Grüne and Linke play a role as a solid opposition
February 23, 2025 at 8:45 AM
I agree: this is probably the best (realistic) scenario we can hope for today.
Reposted by Guillermo Íñiguez
Alemania frente al espejo.
La clave estará en que el nuevo gobierno federal, previsiblemente encabezado por Friedrich Merz, logre salir de la crisis estructural que atraviesa el país.
Por @guilleiniguez.bsky.social.
politicaprosa.com/es/alemania-...
La clave estará en que el nuevo gobierno federal, previsiblemente encabezado por Friedrich Merz, logre salir de la crisis estructural que atraviesa el país.
Por @guilleiniguez.bsky.social.
politicaprosa.com/es/alemania-...
Alemania frente al espejo | política&prosa
El pasado 6 de noviembre, pocas horas después de la victoria de Donald Trump, el Gobierno alemán colapsó. Hacía meses que sus propios integrantes advertían de su fragilidad. La coalición «semáforo»…
politicaprosa.com
February 23, 2025 at 7:10 AM
Alemania frente al espejo.
La clave estará en que el nuevo gobierno federal, previsiblemente encabezado por Friedrich Merz, logre salir de la crisis estructural que atraviesa el país.
Por @guilleiniguez.bsky.social.
politicaprosa.com/es/alemania-...
La clave estará en que el nuevo gobierno federal, previsiblemente encabezado por Friedrich Merz, logre salir de la crisis estructural que atraviesa el país.
Por @guilleiniguez.bsky.social.
politicaprosa.com/es/alemania-...
For those of you interested in rule of law backsliding, judicial reforms, and EU competition law, my recently published piece in the CYELS uses this as case study from which to explore the metastatic-like consequences of democratic backsliding.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Competition in Times of Democratic Crisis: Domestic Judicial Reforms and the Effectiveness of EU Competition Law | Cambridge Yearbook of European Legal Studies | Cambridge Core
Competition in Times of Democratic Crisis: Domestic Judicial Reforms and the Effectiveness of EU Competition Law
www.cambridge.org
January 28, 2025 at 8:18 AM
For those of you interested in rule of law backsliding, judicial reforms, and EU competition law, my recently published piece in the CYELS uses this as case study from which to explore the metastatic-like consequences of democratic backsliding.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Reposted by Guillermo Íñiguez
Del escándalo y el victimismo a convertirse en una fuerza política y electoral respetable para millones de franceses. Escribo en @elpais.com sobre lo que la extrema derecha internacional le debe a Jean-Marie Le Pen.
Españoles, Le Pen ha muerto - elpais.com/opinion/2025...
Españoles, Le Pen ha muerto - elpais.com/opinion/2025...
Españoles, Le Pen ha muerto
Sin el fundador del Frente Nacional francés no se entiende a la hidra reaccionaria internacional que hoy suma adeptos
elpais.com
January 14, 2025 at 8:33 AM
Del escándalo y el victimismo a convertirse en una fuerza política y electoral respetable para millones de franceses. Escribo en @elpais.com sobre lo que la extrema derecha internacional le debe a Jean-Marie Le Pen.
Españoles, Le Pen ha muerto - elpais.com/opinion/2025...
Españoles, Le Pen ha muerto - elpais.com/opinion/2025...
Mis libros favoritos de 2024:
December 23, 2024 at 6:17 PM
Mis libros favoritos de 2024:
Escribo en @politicaprosa.bsky.social sobre las elecciones alemanas, el fin del "milagro alemán" y la profunda crisis estructural a la cual se enfrentará el próximo gobierno federal.
Tres dels pilars del «miracle alemany» —la indústria automobilística, el lliure comerç i l’OTAN— travessen crisis profundes. Més enllà de qui s’imposi en els comicis, l’economia podria veure’s davant d’una llarga travessia pel desert.
Per @guilleiniguez.bsky.social
politicaprosa.com/alemanya-dav...
Per @guilleiniguez.bsky.social
politicaprosa.com/alemanya-dav...
Alemanya davant del mirall | política&prosa
El passat 6 de novembre, poques hores després de la victòria de Donald Trump, el govern alemany va col·lapsar. Feia mesos que els seus integrants n’advertien la fragilitat. La coalició «semàfor», form...
politicaprosa.com
December 18, 2024 at 4:34 PM
Escribo en @politicaprosa.bsky.social sobre las elecciones alemanas, el fin del "milagro alemán" y la profunda crisis estructural a la cual se enfrentará el próximo gobierno federal.
Reposted by Guillermo Íñiguez
We are asking Ukrainians to defeat the armies of Putin and Kim Jong Un. In their efforts to do so, Ukrainians helped bring down Assad. Ukrainian resistance is one of the most stunning military achievements in modern history.
December 16, 2024 at 7:25 PM
We are asking Ukrainians to defeat the armies of Putin and Kim Jong Un. In their efforts to do so, Ukrainians helped bring down Assad. Ukrainian resistance is one of the most stunning military achievements in modern history.
Reposted by Guillermo Íñiguez
In essence, the #euro crisis only got better once all 3 German dogmas went out the window. 1) That the ECB was no lender of last resort, 2) that austerity was the way to fiscal health, and 3) that banking supervision and clean-up should remain national responsibility.
a man in a suit and tie is smiling with a building in the background
Alt: Mario Draghi saying No
media.tenor.com
December 12, 2024 at 9:50 AM
In essence, the #euro crisis only got better once all 3 German dogmas went out the window. 1) That the ECB was no lender of last resort, 2) that austerity was the way to fiscal health, and 3) that banking supervision and clean-up should remain national responsibility.
Reposted by Guillermo Íñiguez
New paper published @ajpseditor.bsky.social
Showing that reduced access to public services fuelled far right support in 🇮🇹
Existing work on far right highlights globalization & migration grievances, what about people’s experiences with the state?
We use 🇮🇹 reform to find out
shorturl.at/zQ8bJ
Showing that reduced access to public services fuelled far right support in 🇮🇹
Existing work on far right highlights globalization & migration grievances, what about people’s experiences with the state?
We use 🇮🇹 reform to find out
shorturl.at/zQ8bJ
December 5, 2024 at 5:22 PM
New paper published @ajpseditor.bsky.social
Showing that reduced access to public services fuelled far right support in 🇮🇹
Existing work on far right highlights globalization & migration grievances, what about people’s experiences with the state?
We use 🇮🇹 reform to find out
shorturl.at/zQ8bJ
Showing that reduced access to public services fuelled far right support in 🇮🇹
Existing work on far right highlights globalization & migration grievances, what about people’s experiences with the state?
We use 🇮🇹 reform to find out
shorturl.at/zQ8bJ
"Madrid no será una gran región metropolitana sin sus universidades públicas. Su presidenta nunca cumplirá ese programa si su forma de relacionarse con la enseñanza superior es ideológica."
@ubeda1955.bsky.social en @elpais.com.
elpais.com/opinion/2024...
@ubeda1955.bsky.social en @elpais.com.
elpais.com/opinion/2024...
Díaz Ayuso, fuera de la ley
Madrid no será una gran región metropolitana sin sus universidades públicas. Su presidenta nunca cumplirá ese programa si su forma de relacionarse con la enseñanza superior es ideológica
elpais.com
December 4, 2024 at 9:46 AM
"Madrid no será una gran región metropolitana sin sus universidades públicas. Su presidenta nunca cumplirá ese programa si su forma de relacionarse con la enseñanza superior es ideológica."
@ubeda1955.bsky.social en @elpais.com.
elpais.com/opinion/2024...
@ubeda1955.bsky.social en @elpais.com.
elpais.com/opinion/2024...
Reposted by Guillermo Íñiguez
Carl Schmitt you fucking hack. You didn’t even consider that Parliament could just vote no to the Sovereign
December 3, 2024 at 6:19 PM
Carl Schmitt you fucking hack. You didn’t even consider that Parliament could just vote no to the Sovereign
Reposted by Guillermo Íñiguez
Today, in fun things to do that just take a moment of your time: trying to get paid a modest speaker's fee from a university. As a bureaucratic project, it's up there with obtaining a visa for North Korea and getting the BBC to pay VAT.
December 3, 2024 at 9:57 AM
Today, in fun things to do that just take a moment of your time: trying to get paid a modest speaker's fee from a university. As a bureaucratic project, it's up there with obtaining a visa for North Korea and getting the BBC to pay VAT.
Reposted by Guillermo Íñiguez
Con tal de afianzarse en el 4% de intención de voto, hay una izquierda que tira por tierra sus propios logros en el Gobierno. La concienciación en torno al sector de reparto en plataformas digitales, su traducción en procesos legales y codificación vía Ley Rider derivan de cuando UP tenía ministros.
December 2, 2024 at 11:22 AM
Con tal de afianzarse en el 4% de intención de voto, hay una izquierda que tira por tierra sus propios logros en el Gobierno. La concienciación en torno al sector de reparto en plataformas digitales, su traducción en procesos legales y codificación vía Ley Rider derivan de cuando UP tenía ministros.
Reposted by Guillermo Íñiguez
El 23F hay elecciones en Alemania y todas las miradas están puestas en un nombre: Friedrich Merz. Este perfil del más-que-probable próximo canciller alemán es perfecto para conocer a la persona detrás del político o al político detrás de la persona. legrandcontinent.eu/es/2024/11/3...
Friedrich Merz: el canciller que viene - El Grand Continent
Desde los tranquilos salones de BlackRock hasta el estudio de Anselm Kiefer, el líder de la CDU que podría convertirse en el décimo canciller alemán de la posguerra es un conservador químicamente puro...
legrandcontinent.eu
December 2, 2024 at 9:37 AM
El 23F hay elecciones en Alemania y todas las miradas están puestas en un nombre: Friedrich Merz. Este perfil del más-que-probable próximo canciller alemán es perfecto para conocer a la persona detrás del político o al político detrás de la persona. legrandcontinent.eu/es/2024/11/3...
"Hace falta que la política muestre lo que es capaz de hacer ejecutando presupuestariamente, más en un momento en que el Legislativo avanza con dificultades al depender de los votos de Junts."
El análisis de @danielbernabe.bsky.social del Congreso Federal.
www.infolibre.es/opinion/colu...
El análisis de @danielbernabe.bsky.social del Congreso Federal.
www.infolibre.es/opinion/colu...
Congreso del PSOE en la España de bloques
La arquitectura efímera es la base de cualquier evento importante. Vale para distribuir de manera eficiente al público, para trasladar una imagen
www.infolibre.es
December 2, 2024 at 10:15 AM
"Hace falta que la política muestre lo que es capaz de hacer ejecutando presupuestariamente, más en un momento en que el Legislativo avanza con dificultades al depender de los votos de Junts."
El análisis de @danielbernabe.bsky.social del Congreso Federal.
www.infolibre.es/opinion/colu...
El análisis de @danielbernabe.bsky.social del Congreso Federal.
www.infolibre.es/opinion/colu...
Reposted by Guillermo Íñiguez
NEW
An argument about Assisting Dying
Matters of life and death need to be properly regulated by law, and not by official discretion
By me
emptycity.substack.com/p/an-argumen...
(substack)
davidallengreen.com/2024/11/an-a...
(personal blog)
An argument about Assisting Dying
Matters of life and death need to be properly regulated by law, and not by official discretion
By me
emptycity.substack.com/p/an-argumen...
(substack)
davidallengreen.com/2024/11/an-a...
(personal blog)
An argument about Assisting Dying
Matters of life and death need to be properly regulated by law, and not by official discretion
emptycity.substack.com
November 28, 2024 at 12:16 PM
NEW
An argument about Assisting Dying
Matters of life and death need to be properly regulated by law, and not by official discretion
By me
emptycity.substack.com/p/an-argumen...
(substack)
davidallengreen.com/2024/11/an-a...
(personal blog)
An argument about Assisting Dying
Matters of life and death need to be properly regulated by law, and not by official discretion
By me
emptycity.substack.com/p/an-argumen...
(substack)
davidallengreen.com/2024/11/an-a...
(personal blog)
Reposted by Guillermo Íñiguez
Lo del desmantelamiento de la universidad pública por Isabel Díaz Ayuso parece la motosierra de Milei por lo bajini. Me parece ciencia ficción. Pero está pasando. 👇
elpais.com/educacion/20...
elpais.com/educacion/20...
La universidad pública: un pilar invisible que sostiene la democracia se tambalea en Madrid
Si no se habla abiertamente de diagnósticos, objetivos y estrategias es porque existe una directriz inconfesable: la asfixia económica y una campaña sin descanso para desprestigiar la Academia
elpais.com
November 28, 2024 at 3:46 PM
Lo del desmantelamiento de la universidad pública por Isabel Díaz Ayuso parece la motosierra de Milei por lo bajini. Me parece ciencia ficción. Pero está pasando. 👇
elpais.com/educacion/20...
elpais.com/educacion/20...
Reposted by Guillermo Íñiguez
Too much UK analysis of the whole Brexit saga ignores the negotiating dynamics and focuses instead on narrow domestic politics. I hope that won't be repeated for upcoming talks, and that we'll understand that outcomes are shaped very early by constraints on both sides.
November 26, 2024 at 9:36 PM
Too much UK analysis of the whole Brexit saga ignores the negotiating dynamics and focuses instead on narrow domestic politics. I hope that won't be repeated for upcoming talks, and that we'll understand that outcomes are shaped very early by constraints on both sides.
"As the world’s most powerful country, America may feel that appealing to international law and institutions is something that only wimpy Europeans need to do. But even the mighty US needs allies and global rules ... A world without law will be a frightening and dangerous place."
on.ft.com/3B4igUv
on.ft.com/3B4igUv
Israel will split the western alliance
Destroying the International Criminal Court is not in America’s interests
on.ft.com
November 27, 2024 at 9:22 AM
"As the world’s most powerful country, America may feel that appealing to international law and institutions is something that only wimpy Europeans need to do. But even the mighty US needs allies and global rules ... A world without law will be a frightening and dangerous place."
on.ft.com/3B4igUv
on.ft.com/3B4igUv
Reposted by Guillermo Íñiguez
Mexico's hand is considerably stronger against the US than it was during Trump's first term (nearshoring, China-related issues, immigration cooperation) and I think Mexico feels it needs to fight back at least a bit otherwise its going to be the go-to country to flog whenever Trump needs a win.
November 26, 2024 at 6:40 PM
Mexico's hand is considerably stronger against the US than it was during Trump's first term (nearshoring, China-related issues, immigration cooperation) and I think Mexico feels it needs to fight back at least a bit otherwise its going to be the go-to country to flog whenever Trump needs a win.
Este instituto de Benetússer ha perdido todos sus libros. Cualquier ayuda es bienvenida.
November 26, 2024 at 3:42 PM
Este instituto de Benetússer ha perdido todos sus libros. Cualquier ayuda es bienvenida.
China has been a key strategic partner of Hungary's since its post-2010 "Eastern Opening" strategy. As this article explains, it has formed part of HU's attempt to counterbalance its growing dependency on the EU/the West.
However, this strategy has also impacted upon the EU's foreign policy.
1/2
However, this strategy has also impacted upon the EU's foreign policy.
1/2
Orban's Hungary doing its own form of alter globalization.
It's absorbing a quarter of Chinese capital inflows to Europe, Chinese carmakers are building factories expected to account for a third of GDP, and Chinese support vying to replace diminished EU funds.
www.ft.com/content/ca5f...
It's absorbing a quarter of Chinese capital inflows to Europe, Chinese carmakers are building factories expected to account for a third of GDP, and Chinese support vying to replace diminished EU funds.
www.ft.com/content/ca5f...
Orbán turns to China to boost recession-hit economy
Hungary has captured more than a quarter of Chinese capital flowing into Europe since 2022
www.ft.com
November 26, 2024 at 11:46 AM
China has been a key strategic partner of Hungary's since its post-2010 "Eastern Opening" strategy. As this article explains, it has formed part of HU's attempt to counterbalance its growing dependency on the EU/the West.
However, this strategy has also impacted upon the EU's foreign policy.
1/2
However, this strategy has also impacted upon the EU's foreign policy.
1/2