Gabriel Steinsbekk
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gsteinsbekk.bsky.social
Gabriel Steinsbekk
@gsteinsbekk.bsky.social
230 followers 560 following 120 posts
Fire up the turbo-chargers and set phasers to equality.
Posts Replies Media Videos
Reposted by Gabriel Steinsbekk
johnholbein1.bsky.social
This is wild!

Seven-day-ahead weather forecasts in high-income countries are more accurate than one-day-ahead weather forecasts in low-income countries.
November 25, 2025 at 9:07 PM
Reposted by Gabriel Steinsbekk
joshmccrain.bsky.social
new paper by Sean Westwood:

With current technology, it is impossible to tell whether survey respondents are real or bots. Among other things, makes it easy for bad actors to manipulate outcomes. No good news here for the future of online-based survey research
November 18, 2025 at 7:16 PM
Reposted by Gabriel Steinsbekk
4hundredblows.bsky.social
I haven’t seen corners this dangerous since I binge watched The Wire
October 22, 2025 at 7:46 PM
Reposted by Gabriel Steinsbekk
chrnum.bsky.social
Hans Jørgen Lysglimt

Snakker tydelig om rasehygiene der de andre vakler. Blir litt borte i debatten om skattetrykk, men ellers trygg og god. Det merkes at selvtilliten er på plass. Svarer godt for seg på spørsmål om jødeproblemet

VGs dom: Terningkast 5
August 20, 2025 at 7:23 AM
Reposted by Gabriel Steinsbekk
banalplay.bsky.social
People are lonelier than ever, so here is a robot you can talk to. It won't make you less lonely but it will drive you insane. That will be five thousand dollars.
August 14, 2025 at 4:17 PM
Reposted by Gabriel Steinsbekk
gregk.co.uk
Did anybody even *try* showing Goebbels the actual crime stats?
August 13, 2025 at 7:38 AM
gsteinsbekk.bsky.social
Det ble avgitt 42 758 forhåndsstemmer i hele Norge i går, opp fra 27 671 på den første forhåndsstemmedagen i 2021. Dersom vi antar ca. 3 090 000 stemmer totalt ved årets valg vil det si at 1,54 % av stemmene allerede er inne.
August 12, 2025 at 11:29 AM
gsteinsbekk.bsky.social
Det ble avgitt 9 459 forhåndsstemmer i Oslo i går, mot 6 461 første dag i forhåndsstemmeperioden i 2021.
August 12, 2025 at 9:51 AM
gsteinsbekk.bsky.social
Det ble avgitt 9 279 tidligstemmer i år. Det er en økning fra 8 469 i 2021. Dersom vi antar at det vil bli avgitt ca. 3 090 000 stemmer ved valget så øker andelen tidligstemmer minimalt fra 0,28 i 2021 til 0,30 i 2025.
August 12, 2025 at 8:16 AM
gsteinsbekk.bsky.social
Snitt fire første målinger i august (endring fra de samme målingene i juni):
Ap: 27,6 (-1,1)
H: 15,4 (-1,2)
Frp: 21,5 (+0,9)
Sp: 6,2 (+0,5)
SV: 6,6 (+0,4)
KrF: 4,0 (+0,2)
V: 4,6 (+0,2)
MDG: 3,4 (-0,3)
R: 6,1 (-0,1)

Mandatfordeling: 85 mot 84 i rødgrønn favør.
August 11, 2025 at 11:13 AM
gsteinsbekk.bsky.social
Dersom MDG settes til 3,9 %, altså under sperregrensen, på dagens måling i Klassekampen og Nationen går rødgrønn side bare ned fra 91 til 90 mandater. Dersom KrF i tillegg settes til 4,0 % så er det fortsatt rødgrønt flertall med 87 mandater. klassekampen.no/artikkel/202...
Rødgrønt flertall med MDG på vippen
Hvis KrF kommer over sperregrensa, kan flertallet snu fra rødt til blått.
klassekampen.no
August 9, 2025 at 7:23 AM
gsteinsbekk.bsky.social
Snitt av de to første målingene i august (endring fra de samme målingene i juni, altså ikke inkl. Norfakta i juli):

Ap: 26,8 (-2,3)
H: 15,1 (-1,0)
Frp: 22,3 (+1,7)
Sp: 6,5 (+1,2)
SV: 6,5 (+1,0)
KrF: 3,5 (-0,6)
V: 4,5 (-0,5)
MDG: 3,7 (-0,1)
R: 6,1 (+0,1)
August 9, 2025 at 7:09 AM
Reposted by Gabriel Steinsbekk
lwestheuser.bsky.social
Proper thread after the summer break– but if you were looking for a beach read about political reasoning in today's working class, look no further: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
August 4, 2025 at 9:53 AM
gsteinsbekk.bsky.social
Ferien er over.
August 4, 2025 at 6:27 AM
gsteinsbekk.bsky.social
August 3, 2025 at 6:54 PM
gsteinsbekk.bsky.social
Erna Solbergs valgkrets er den eneste som har svingt mer i rødgrønn retning siden 2021. Fire valgkretser har svingt fra rødgrønt til borgerlig flertall. www.pollofpolls.no?cmd=Kommenta... pollofpolls.no - «Sving» i valgkretsene 2021–2025
«Sving» i valgkretsene 2021–2025
1) «Sving» = endringene i avstanden mellom blokkene fra stortingsvalget i 2021 til siste måling i 2025. Svingen for de nitten valgkretsene er angitt i pkt. 6. 2) Svingen i landet som helhet på snittet...
www.pollofpolls.no
August 3, 2025 at 9:20 AM
gsteinsbekk.bsky.social
Frp var større enn Høyre+Venstre+KrF til sammen i både juli og juni.
August 2, 2025 at 1:42 PM
gsteinsbekk.bsky.social
Adressa har klart å pikselere det lille bildet til venstre, men ikke det store bildet, så nå kan alle som leser avisen ringe på til folk i Kolstadflaten borettslag.
July 31, 2025 at 8:48 AM
Reposted by Gabriel Steinsbekk
mosheroperandi.bsky.social
I think it's now possible to make a poli-sci course that equips one for modern political analysis better than most classic theory and has a syllabus sourced entirely from random internet posts.

Text 1. Wilhoit's Law, born as part of a 2018 blog comment
crookedtimber.org/2018/03/21/l...
There is no such thing as liberalism — or progressivism, etc. There is only conservatism. No other political philosophy actually exists; by the political analogue of Gresham’s Law, conservatism has driven every other idea out of circulation. There might be, and should be, anti-conservatism; but it does not yet exist. What would it be? In order to answer that question, it is necessary and sufficient to characterize conservatism. Fortunately, this can be done very concisely. Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protectes but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect. There is nothing more or else to it, and there never has been, in any place or time. For millenia, conservatism had no name, because no other model of polity had ever been proposed. “The king can do no wrong.” In practice, this immunity was always extended to the king’s friends, however fungible a group they might have been. Today, we still have the king’s friends even where there is no king (dictator, etc.). Another way to look at this is that the king is a faction, rather than an individual. As the core proposition of conservatism is indefensible if stated baldly, it has always been surrounded by an elaborate backwash of pseudophilosophy, amounting over time to millions of pages. All such is axiomatically dishonest and undeserving of serious scrutiny. Today, the accelerating de-education of humanity has reached a point where the market for pseudophilosophy is vanishing; it is, as The Kids Say These Days, tl;dr . All that is left is the core proposition itself — backed up, no longer by misdirection and sophistry, but by violence. So this tells us what anti-conservatism must be: the proposition that the law cannot protect anyone unless it binds everyone, and cannot bind anyone unless it protects everyone. Then the appearance arises that the task is to map “liberalism”, or “progressivism”, or “socialism”, or whateverthefuckkindofstupidnoise-ism, onto the core proposition of anti-conservatism. No, it a’n’t. The task is to throw all those things on the exact same burn pile as the collected works of all the apologists for conservatism, and start fresh. The core proposition of anti-conservatism requires no supplementation and no exegesis. It is as sufficient as it is necessary. What you see is what you get: The law cannot protect anyone unless it binds everyone; and it cannot bind anyone unless it protects everyone.
July 13, 2025 at 1:07 AM
Reposted by Gabriel Steinsbekk
vestenet.bsky.social
have basically been thinking about this tweet all year, and i finally found it again
tweet from 8/20/22 by joe kerr (@societylivr1984), accompanied by a picture of george w bush: There's an old saying in Schelling—I know it's in Hegel, probably in Schelling—that all great world-historic facts and personages appear, so to speak, twice. He forgot to add: the first time as... as... tragedy... the second time as... as... it's funny if it happens again
June 22, 2025 at 2:07 AM
gsteinsbekk.bsky.social
Fra et snitt på 13,6 % i juni 2009 økte Høyre oppslutningen med 3,6 prosentpoeng fram til valgdagen i september.
June 5, 2025 at 6:44 AM
gsteinsbekk.bsky.social
Snitt tre målinger så langt i juni (endring fra de samme tre i mai):

Ap: 29,7 (+1,4)
H: 16,1 (-2,3)
Frp: 19,9 (-1,5)
Sp: 5,5 (-0,2)
SV: 6,4 (-0,6)
KrF: 4,2 (+0,5)
V: 4,2 (+0,3)
MDG: 3,3 (+0,7)
R: 6,1 (+0,8)

Blokkene: +5,1 rødgrønn favør
June 5, 2025 at 5:41 AM
Reposted by Gabriel Steinsbekk
adamjschwarz.bsky.social
Exit polls suggest the Democratic Party's Lee Jae-myung has won the South Korean presidential election with 51.7% of votes.

You may recall him scaling the walls of the National Assembly last year to bypass a military siege and vote against President Yoon's coup attempt.
adamjschwarz.bsky.social Adam Schwarz @adamjschwarz.bsky.social · Dec 3
Lee Jae-myung, Leader of South Korea's Democratic Party, live-streamed himself scaling the walls of the National Assembly to bypass military barricades so that he could vote to overturn the President's martial law.
June 3, 2025 at 11:40 AM
Reposted by Gabriel Steinsbekk
tef.bsky.social
you know who else came from chicago and was on "a mission from god"
May 8, 2025 at 5:29 PM