Jon Shepherd
@grizzah.bsky.social
I used to write for ESPN, Baseball Prospectus, others. Founded the now defunct Camden Depot. Am really a toxicologist/epidemiologist.
This feels like a slight overpay, but it may simply be where the market is. Going an extra 2 or 3 million per year isnt the end of the world.
Not sure where this leaves the Orioles.
Not sure where this leaves the Orioles.
BREAKING: The New York Post has learned Dylan Cease to Blue Jays. $210M, 7 years
November 27, 2025 at 12:00 AM
This feels like a slight overpay, but it may simply be where the market is. Going an extra 2 or 3 million per year isnt the end of the world.
Not sure where this leaves the Orioles.
Not sure where this leaves the Orioles.
Kenta Maeda's MLB journey looks complete. For some reason, he has always struck me as undervalued. When he signed, I pegged him for 16.8 WAR based on my conversion CRAP model...he landed on 15.0. Although I think his ability was somewhat questioned, the health angle was a bit louder.
November 26, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Kenta Maeda's MLB journey looks complete. For some reason, he has always struck me as undervalued. When he signed, I pegged him for 16.8 WAR based on my conversion CRAP model...he landed on 15.0. Although I think his ability was somewhat questioned, the health angle was a bit louder.
Being a youth coach can be a repeated lesson in the whole ridiculousness of it all.
So I am coaching a 12yo who is raw, but has it as a pitcher. Mid 60s, good not great control, one of the better guys in the area. Who knows what the teen years will do.
He made a decision to go all in on soccer.
So I am coaching a 12yo who is raw, but has it as a pitcher. Mid 60s, good not great control, one of the better guys in the area. Who knows what the teen years will do.
He made a decision to go all in on soccer.
November 24, 2025 at 12:47 PM
Being a youth coach can be a repeated lesson in the whole ridiculousness of it all.
So I am coaching a 12yo who is raw, but has it as a pitcher. Mid 60s, good not great control, one of the better guys in the area. Who knows what the teen years will do.
He made a decision to go all in on soccer.
So I am coaching a 12yo who is raw, but has it as a pitcher. Mid 60s, good not great control, one of the better guys in the area. Who knows what the teen years will do.
He made a decision to go all in on soccer.
When Suzuki made his way through Baltimore, Brady was a jack of all trades. He loved dressing up and throwing to hitters in the cage, helping as a hitting consultant.
It was somewhat controversial.
It was somewhat controversial.
The Angels hired Brady Anderson as hitting coach AND John Mabry as assistant hitting coach.
Great day to @remembersomeguys.bsky.social
Great day to @remembersomeguys.bsky.social
November 21, 2025 at 10:04 PM
When Suzuki made his way through Baltimore, Brady was a jack of all trades. He loved dressing up and throwing to hitters in the cage, helping as a hitting consultant.
It was somewhat controversial.
It was somewhat controversial.
Also, if Grayson throws 25 starts this year with a sub 4.50 ERA, that will be baseball malpractice by the Orioles.
November 19, 2025 at 10:22 PM
Also, if Grayson throws 25 starts this year with a sub 4.50 ERA, that will be baseball malpractice by the Orioles.
So one thing to keep in mind, I think there is a good chance that the total value GRod has is greater than what Ward has. However, I am sadly aware that the average value per year is not greater and is probably able to be acquired somewhat easily in the future market.
November 19, 2025 at 7:04 PM
So one thing to keep in mind, I think there is a good chance that the total value GRod has is greater than what Ward has. However, I am sadly aware that the average value per year is not greater and is probably able to be acquired somewhat easily in the future market.
In the weeds thought today. MLB free agency should be at 25yo for HS draftees, 26yo for sophomore or freshman draftees, and 27 yo for college draftees. For 4 years after being drafted, they should be immune from 40 man roster placement.
November 19, 2025 at 5:08 PM
In the weeds thought today. MLB free agency should be at 25yo for HS draftees, 26yo for sophomore or freshman draftees, and 27 yo for college draftees. For 4 years after being drafted, they should be immune from 40 man roster placement.
One of the issues creeping up last year was that we had a Wizard of Os situation where maybe what looked intimidating and powerful appears less so once the curtain is drawn back.
November 19, 2025 at 1:31 PM
One of the issues creeping up last year was that we had a Wizard of Os situation where maybe what looked intimidating and powerful appears less so once the curtain is drawn back.
Perhaps a bit blunt, but this is a succinct way to put it.
This front office, which is full of value maximizing nerds, gave up four years of control of Rodriguez for one year of control of Ward. Think about what that says about what they think of Rodriguez's health.
November 19, 2025 at 11:18 AM
Perhaps a bit blunt, but this is a succinct way to put it.
Waking up to the Ward-GRod deal...looks like the Orioles are prioritizing the 2026 season and have free agency confidence.
November 19, 2025 at 10:29 AM
Waking up to the Ward-GRod deal...looks like the Orioles are prioritizing the 2026 season and have free agency confidence.
I think a major reason why the late 80s and early 90s were such an awesome time to grow up was because video games were much worse, television wasnt catering to me, and I was vaguely unaware that terrible things were happening.
Basically, being 10 and having no major cares in the world is great.
Basically, being 10 and having no major cares in the world is great.
November 12, 2025 at 10:16 PM
I think a major reason why the late 80s and early 90s were such an awesome time to grow up was because video games were much worse, television wasnt catering to me, and I was vaguely unaware that terrible things were happening.
Basically, being 10 and having no major cares in the world is great.
Basically, being 10 and having no major cares in the world is great.
Revenue sharing is kind of a fools errand without a salary cap. So maybe the solution is more about killing protected territory for teams.
November 10, 2025 at 8:31 PM
Revenue sharing is kind of a fools errand without a salary cap. So maybe the solution is more about killing protected territory for teams.
So Leody Tavares supposedly gets 2 million. What do I think that means?
Bradfield is staying in the minors. That the Orioles were highly frustrated in defensive abilities coming from Norfolk. And that they didn't want to get bogged down with an outfielder contract.
Also...
Bradfield is staying in the minors. That the Orioles were highly frustrated in defensive abilities coming from Norfolk. And that they didn't want to get bogged down with an outfielder contract.
Also...
November 6, 2025 at 1:11 PM
So Leody Tavares supposedly gets 2 million. What do I think that means?
Bradfield is staying in the minors. That the Orioles were highly frustrated in defensive abilities coming from Norfolk. And that they didn't want to get bogged down with an outfielder contract.
Also...
Bradfield is staying in the minors. That the Orioles were highly frustrated in defensive abilities coming from Norfolk. And that they didn't want to get bogged down with an outfielder contract.
Also...
Caleb Joseph can be a difference maker as an analyst, but you have to limit him to 60 or 70 games or else he wears down.
November 2, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Caleb Joseph can be a difference maker as an analyst, but you have to limit him to 60 or 70 games or else he wears down.
When we looking at managerial hiring, sportswriters should probably take a deep dive in concepts around how religion, fundamentalism in particular, has a deep history in clubhouse. How it is used sometimes as a proxy for leadership and how it sometimes becomes a driving factor in how $ is spent.
October 16, 2025 at 11:17 AM
When we looking at managerial hiring, sportswriters should probably take a deep dive in concepts around how religion, fundamentalism in particular, has a deep history in clubhouse. How it is used sometimes as a proxy for leadership and how it sometimes becomes a driving factor in how $ is spent.
I think Albert Pujols would be a mess as a manager. Maybe he has transformed in retirement.
October 15, 2025 at 11:08 PM
I think Albert Pujols would be a mess as a manager. Maybe he has transformed in retirement.
I was thinking more Lex Luther's Ultraman clone of Jake Gyllenhaal.
this is the most like a mike tyson's punch out guy i have ever seen anyone look
October 14, 2025 at 11:28 PM
I was thinking more Lex Luther's Ultraman clone of Jake Gyllenhaal.
I mean, I would probably hire Bob Melvin to lead the Orioles.
October 5, 2025 at 5:55 PM
I mean, I would probably hire Bob Melvin to lead the Orioles.
I think my most unpopular sports opinion is that I think there should not be extra innings or overtime.
I am fine with ties/draws.
I am fine with ties/draws.
September 29, 2025 at 2:19 PM
I think my most unpopular sports opinion is that I think there should not be extra innings or overtime.
I am fine with ties/draws.
I am fine with ties/draws.
Juan Soto has played in 14.5% of his total career games this year. He has stolen 40% of his career stolen bases this year.
September 27, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Juan Soto has played in 14.5% of his total career games this year. He has stolen 40% of his career stolen bases this year.
I think the Orioles underperformed so massively this year that I am kind of unsure what to think outside of Gunnar. I dont think they have an internal playoff window. I think they will need to supplement with free agency and I wonder if the attendance marks impact how willing the owner is to spend.
September 27, 2025 at 12:02 AM
I think the Orioles underperformed so massively this year that I am kind of unsure what to think outside of Gunnar. I dont think they have an internal playoff window. I think they will need to supplement with free agency and I wonder if the attendance marks impact how willing the owner is to spend.
If memory serves me correct, the last time a full season Orioles team leader in home runs had fewer than 20, it was 2001 with Jay Gibbons and Chris Ritchards tying.
Fun fact: Cedric Mullins, who is no longer a member of the Orioles, has any many home runs this season as the current O's team leader (Jackson Holliday, 17)
September 19, 2025 at 1:08 PM
If memory serves me correct, the last time a full season Orioles team leader in home runs had fewer than 20, it was 2001 with Jay Gibbons and Chris Ritchards tying.
Hahaha. My 9yo likes the Savannah Bananas. So far we lost out on two lotteries. We got in a lottery draw, but tickets were sold out by the time we were permitted access. And so now I offered to buy K club membership to get early access, which was just now refused to be granted.
I am done with it.
I am done with it.
September 17, 2025 at 7:06 PM
Hahaha. My 9yo likes the Savannah Bananas. So far we lost out on two lotteries. We got in a lottery draw, but tickets were sold out by the time we were permitted access. And so now I offered to buy K club membership to get early access, which was just now refused to be granted.
I am done with it.
I am done with it.
I have such great memories of the Adventures of Brisco County Jr.
Everyone has a 1-2 season TV show they sorely miss and not enough people knew about that you are always praising the heavens about.
What's yours?
What's yours?
September 13, 2025 at 12:22 AM
I have such great memories of the Adventures of Brisco County Jr.
I do a lot of admin work for our local youth baseball league. What is the absolute worst issue we have for the 8-10 age divisions?
Walk up music.
Only a few teams do it, but they do not have good control of the speakers, they pick inappropriate songs, and they go absolutely helicopter parent nuts.
Walk up music.
Only a few teams do it, but they do not have good control of the speakers, they pick inappropriate songs, and they go absolutely helicopter parent nuts.
September 11, 2025 at 6:21 PM
I do a lot of admin work for our local youth baseball league. What is the absolute worst issue we have for the 8-10 age divisions?
Walk up music.
Only a few teams do it, but they do not have good control of the speakers, they pick inappropriate songs, and they go absolutely helicopter parent nuts.
Walk up music.
Only a few teams do it, but they do not have good control of the speakers, they pick inappropriate songs, and they go absolutely helicopter parent nuts.