Antonio Barroso
@geoecon.bsky.social
Senior Geoeconomics Analyst @Bloomberg. Adjunct professor @sciencespo. PhD @LSEnews. Algecireño in Geneva. Views my own.
This looks to me as the first real attempt to put all the stated goals of Trump's tariffs into some sort of framework: www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st...
CEA Chairman Steve Miran Hudson Institute Event Remarks
Today I’d like to discuss the United States’ provision of what economists call “global public goods,” for the entire world. First, the United States
www.whitehouse.gov
April 8, 2025 at 8:02 AM
This looks to me as the first real attempt to put all the stated goals of Trump's tariffs into some sort of framework: www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st...
Brilliant idea!
The EU and US should totally negotiate something like, I don’t know, a ‘Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership.’
Wonder is someone has tried that before…🤔
The EU and US should totally negotiate something like, I don’t know, a ‘Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership.’
Wonder is someone has tried that before…🤔
Elon Musk has spoken in favour of a tariff-free trans-Atlantic free trade area, hours after President Donald Trump's new sweeping global tariffs came into effect.
Musk speaks out in favour of trans-Atlantic free trade ｜ DPA
US presidential adviser Elon Musk has spoken in favour of a tariff-free trans-Atlantic free trade area, hours after President Donald Trump's new sweeping global tariffs came into effect. Speaking via…
nordot.app
April 6, 2025 at 8:37 AM
Brilliant idea!
The EU and US should totally negotiate something like, I don’t know, a ‘Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership.’
Wonder is someone has tried that before…🤔
The EU and US should totally negotiate something like, I don’t know, a ‘Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership.’
Wonder is someone has tried that before…🤔
The US's tariff plan tastes like Brexit on steroids with a dash of autarky
April 3, 2025 at 1:34 PM
The US's tariff plan tastes like Brexit on steroids with a dash of autarky
The US slaps tariffs on the EU. Naturally, the Hungarian government blames… the EU.
April 3, 2025 at 6:31 AM
The US slaps tariffs on the EU. Naturally, the Hungarian government blames… the EU.
Still unclear whether the US is using tariffs to raise revenue or as a negotiation tactic.
The result: more policy uncertainty ahead.
The result: more policy uncertainty ahead.
April 3, 2025 at 6:03 AM
Still unclear whether the US is using tariffs to raise revenue or as a negotiation tactic.
The result: more policy uncertainty ahead.
The result: more policy uncertainty ahead.
Watching the hegemon attempt geopolitical suicide in real time is wild
April 2, 2025 at 9:10 PM
Watching the hegemon attempt geopolitical suicide in real time is wild
The US embassy in Paris has reportedly sent letters to several French firms asking them to confirm they don’t have DEI policies in place (implying they could lose access to US government contracts if they do).
www.lesechos.fr/industrie-se...
www.lesechos.fr/industrie-se...
www.lesechos.fr
March 29, 2025 at 10:52 AM
The US embassy in Paris has reportedly sent letters to several French firms asking them to confirm they don’t have DEI policies in place (implying they could lose access to US government contracts if they do).
www.lesechos.fr/industrie-se...
www.lesechos.fr/industrie-se...
Eurozone crisis veterans cannot believe their eyes right now
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Germany Urges EU to Ease Fiscal Rules to Boost Defense Funds
Germany called for the European Union to reform its fiscal rules to allow countries to make bigger defense expenditures, a massive shift for a country known for its spending restraint.
www.bloomberg.com
March 5, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Eurozone crisis veterans cannot believe their eyes right now
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Antonio Barroso
Since Feb 2024 there has been a 16pt drop in the British public's willingness to aid the USA in the event of an attack, while attitudes towards other countries remain unchanged
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
February 24, 2025 at 10:19 AM
Since Feb 2024 there has been a 16pt drop in the British public's willingness to aid the USA in the event of an attack, while attitudes towards other countries remain unchanged
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
Reposted by Antonio Barroso
First an SPD chancellor who completely clung to US leadership and refused to do anything to support Ukraine without the US. Now a (likely) CDU chancellor who says Europe needs to decouple from the US.
What a time to be alive
What a time to be alive
Merz just said on German TV that the primary priority of his government will be to ensure that Europe can achieve full strategic independence from the United States in the defence against Russia.
Merz was once a die hard Atlanicist. Now, after Trump he is a Gaullist.
Extraordinary.
Merz was once a die hard Atlanicist. Now, after Trump he is a Gaullist.
Extraordinary.
February 23, 2025 at 8:27 PM
First an SPD chancellor who completely clung to US leadership and refused to do anything to support Ukraine without the US. Now a (likely) CDU chancellor who says Europe needs to decouple from the US.
What a time to be alive
What a time to be alive
So far not looking great for the prospects of debt brake reform. CDU/CSU + SPD + Greens might be some seats short of the 2/3rds majority needed for constitutional revision
2. 🏛️ # parties in the Bundestag: the more parties, the more likely the election winner might need + than one coalition partner.
Another thing to watch is whether CDU/SPD/Greens will have the necessary 2/3 majority to reform debt brake.
Another thing to watch is whether CDU/SPD/Greens will have the necessary 2/3 majority to reform debt brake.
February 23, 2025 at 8:41 PM
So far not looking great for the prospects of debt brake reform. CDU/CSU + SPD + Greens might be some seats short of the 2/3rds majority needed for constitutional revision
Reposted by Antonio Barroso
What could success of Die Linke mean for security policy? Key points from their manifesto👇:
- Disarm 🇩🇪🇪🇺
- Build security architecture with 🇨🇳🇮🇳🇷🇺
- End 🇩🇪 military missions
- 🇩🇪 Military should be uncapable of attack
- No 🇩🇪🇪🇺 nuclear weapons/participation
- Fewer weapons for 🇺🇦, negotiations instead
- Disarm 🇩🇪🇪🇺
- Build security architecture with 🇨🇳🇮🇳🇷🇺
- End 🇩🇪 military missions
- 🇩🇪 Military should be uncapable of attack
- No 🇩🇪🇪🇺 nuclear weapons/participation
- Fewer weapons for 🇺🇦, negotiations instead
February 23, 2025 at 8:28 PM
What could success of Die Linke mean for security policy? Key points from their manifesto👇:
- Disarm 🇩🇪🇪🇺
- Build security architecture with 🇨🇳🇮🇳🇷🇺
- End 🇩🇪 military missions
- 🇩🇪 Military should be uncapable of attack
- No 🇩🇪🇪🇺 nuclear weapons/participation
- Fewer weapons for 🇺🇦, negotiations instead
- Disarm 🇩🇪🇪🇺
- Build security architecture with 🇨🇳🇮🇳🇷🇺
- End 🇩🇪 military missions
- 🇩🇪 Military should be uncapable of attack
- No 🇩🇪🇪🇺 nuclear weapons/participation
- Fewer weapons for 🇺🇦, negotiations instead
Three issues we will be watching when polls close in 🇩🇪 at 6pm local time.
1. 🎯 Accuracy of opinion polls: German pollsters were relatively accurate in the last election. Will there be any surprises this time?
1. 🎯 Accuracy of opinion polls: German pollsters were relatively accurate in the last election. Will there be any surprises this time?
February 23, 2025 at 4:45 PM
Three issues we will be watching when polls close in 🇩🇪 at 6pm local time.
1. 🎯 Accuracy of opinion polls: German pollsters were relatively accurate in the last election. Will there be any surprises this time?
1. 🎯 Accuracy of opinion polls: German pollsters were relatively accurate in the last election. Will there be any surprises this time?
In this bonus episode of Trumponomics, recorded at the Munich Security Conference, @albertonardelli.bsky.social and I talk to Stephanie Flanders about Trump’s pivot on Ukraine, Europe’s response, and what it all means for transatlantic relations.
open.spotify.com/episode/6NWW...
open.spotify.com/episode/6NWW...
Live From Munich: Trump Hands Europe the Bill for Ukraine
Trumponomics · Episode
open.spotify.com
February 15, 2025 at 6:51 AM
In this bonus episode of Trumponomics, recorded at the Munich Security Conference, @albertonardelli.bsky.social and I talk to Stephanie Flanders about Trump’s pivot on Ukraine, Europe’s response, and what it all means for transatlantic relations.
open.spotify.com/episode/6NWW...
open.spotify.com/episode/6NWW...
US swing states: from battlegrounds for votes to frontlines of a trade war
Canada & Mexico could—and probably will—try to target economically & politically sensitive US industries in the hope of making the cost higher for Trump
oil, exports from swing states, key intermediate goods, banning Twitter (frankly, welfare-increasing at this point), etc. 4/x
oil, exports from swing states, key intermediate goods, banning Twitter (frankly, welfare-increasing at this point), etc. 4/x
February 3, 2025 at 11:46 AM
US swing states: from battlegrounds for votes to frontlines of a trade war
The Conservative Party is certainly reaping the benefits of Brexit, like polling third behind the party that truly wanted Brexit.
🚨 NEW: Britain has ‘reaped the benefits’ of Brexit, Conservative Party declares on fifth anniversary
“But this govt, driven by socialist ideology and blind to the will of the people, is determined to… drag us back into the EU’s grasp”, Patel said
Full story ⤵️
www.politics.co.uk/news/2025/01...
“But this govt, driven by socialist ideology and blind to the will of the people, is determined to… drag us back into the EU’s grasp”, Patel said
Full story ⤵️
www.politics.co.uk/news/2025/01...
Britain has ‘reaped the benefits’ of Brexit, Conservative Party declares on fifth anniversary - Politics.co.uk
Britain has “reaped the benefits” of Brexit, shadow foreign secretary Priti Patel has said as the nation marks five years since withdrawing from the European Union (EU). The Conservative Party is look...
www.politics.co.uk
January 31, 2025 at 12:14 PM
The Conservative Party is certainly reaping the benefits of Brexit, like polling third behind the party that truly wanted Brexit.
Reposted by Antonio Barroso
Take away from the first two hour of Trump 2.0: Grievance and culture wars > Trade Wars.
Not sure if that will last.
Not sure if that will last.
January 20, 2025 at 6:47 PM
Take away from the first two hour of Trump 2.0: Grievance and culture wars > Trade Wars.
Not sure if that will last.
Not sure if that will last.
If that happens, I can’t think of a clearer case for the EU to use its anti-coercion instrument www.bbc.com/news/article...
Trump threatens Denmark with economic retaliation on Greenland
In a rambling news conference, the president-elect also repeated the idea of the US taking over Canada and the Panama Canal.
www.bbc.com
January 7, 2025 at 7:37 PM
If that happens, I can’t think of a clearer case for the EU to use its anti-coercion instrument www.bbc.com/news/article...
Le Pen and Melenchon seem determined to put as much pressure as possible on Macron to resign.
For them, 2027 feels too far away. Time is running out politically—and, in Le Pen’s case, potentially legally.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
For them, 2027 feels too far away. Time is running out politically—and, in Le Pen’s case, potentially legally.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Barnier Risks Government Collapse With French Budget Gambit
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier used a constitutional tool to push through parts of his unpopular budget bill without a parliamentary vote, raising the prospect lawmakers could dissolve his gover...
www.bloomberg.com
December 2, 2024 at 4:55 PM
Le Pen and Melenchon seem determined to put as much pressure as possible on Macron to resign.
For them, 2027 feels too far away. Time is running out politically—and, in Le Pen’s case, potentially legally.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
For them, 2027 feels too far away. Time is running out politically—and, in Le Pen’s case, potentially legally.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Repeat again and again: if you try to copy the original, people will prefer the original to the copy👇
2) More anti-immigrant positions do not weaken the radical right
Our research shows that when established parties move to the right on immigration this does not weaken the radical right but if anything strengthens them. It contributes to their normalization and legitimation
doi.org/10.1017/psrm...
Our research shows that when established parties move to the right on immigration this does not weaken the radical right but if anything strengthens them. It contributes to their normalization and legitimation
doi.org/10.1017/psrm...
December 2, 2024 at 2:43 PM
Repeat again and again: if you try to copy the original, people will prefer the original to the copy👇
Reposted by Antonio Barroso
Some important context: 1) this is a draft; 2) of course Hungary wants to weaken screening; 3) sectoral list provides minimum baseline, does not prevent member states from stricter standards; 4) let’s learn what the bigger members with more advanced tech think.
This would be a mistake if confirmed: EU member states reducing the scope of technologies that would be subject to FDI screening
www.politico.eu/article/eu-c...
www.politico.eu/article/eu-c...
EU capitals try to gut investment screening rules aimed at keeping China out
Compromise text deletes list of critical technologies where foreign investment deals would have to be notified to the EU executive and other member countries.
www.politico.eu
November 26, 2024 at 12:09 PM
Some important context: 1) this is a draft; 2) of course Hungary wants to weaken screening; 3) sectoral list provides minimum baseline, does not prevent member states from stricter standards; 4) let’s learn what the bigger members with more advanced tech think.
This would be a mistake if confirmed: EU member states reducing the scope of technologies that would be subject to FDI screening
www.politico.eu/article/eu-c...
www.politico.eu/article/eu-c...
EU capitals try to gut investment screening rules aimed at keeping China out
Compromise text deletes list of critical technologies where foreign investment deals would have to be notified to the EU executive and other member countries.
www.politico.eu
November 26, 2024 at 7:17 AM
This would be a mistake if confirmed: EU member states reducing the scope of technologies that would be subject to FDI screening
www.politico.eu/article/eu-c...
www.politico.eu/article/eu-c...
Very cool research!
I wonder whether there is similar data for France, which would help explain farmers' outsized political influence (and politicians' fear of trade agreements)
I wonder whether there is similar data for France, which would help explain farmers' outsized political influence (and politicians' fear of trade agreements)
Farmers are protesting in Westminster, what might the political consequences be?
Our research on farmer protests in 🇳🇱 provides some clues.
osf.io/preprints/os...
Bottom line: due to popularity of farmers + media bias, this likely creates major political headache for Starmer government.
🧵
Our research on farmer protests in 🇳🇱 provides some clues.
osf.io/preprints/os...
Bottom line: due to popularity of farmers + media bias, this likely creates major political headache for Starmer government.
🧵
OSF
osf.io
November 20, 2024 at 11:26 AM
Very cool research!
I wonder whether there is similar data for France, which would help explain farmers' outsized political influence (and politicians' fear of trade agreements)
I wonder whether there is similar data for France, which would help explain farmers' outsized political influence (and politicians' fear of trade agreements)