@frontiere.bsky.social
My own Walter Sobchak sense is tingling right now. Too early for the seasonal shitco run on the calendar.
gonna make the Walter Sobchak smashing Larry's car meme just in case
December 3, 2025 at 7:19 PM
My own Walter Sobchak sense is tingling right now. Too early for the seasonal shitco run on the calendar.
free alpha reminder that US equity vol VIX VX clusters ie upside in
long VX1 if VX1>VX2 w 2-day lag
and
short VX1 if VX1
h/t @moontower.bsky.social + Ceph + RobotJames x.com/krisabdelmes...
As of this post Nov>Dec but settles in am tmrw and Dec
![]()
long VX1 if VX1>VX2 w 2-day lag
and
short VX1 if VX1
h/t @moontower.bsky.social + Ceph + RobotJames x.com/krisabdelmes...
As of this post Nov>Dec but settles in am tmrw and Dec
November 19, 2025 at 12:36 AM
free alpha reminder that US equity vol VIX VX clusters ie upside in
long VX1 if VX1>VX2 w 2-day lag
and
short VX1 if VX1
h/t @moontower.bsky.social + Ceph + RobotJames x.com/krisabdelmes...
As of this post Nov>Dec but settles in am tmrw and Dec
long VX1 if VX1>VX2 w 2-day lag
and
short VX1 if VX1
h/t @moontower.bsky.social + Ceph + RobotJames x.com/krisabdelmes...
As of this post Nov>Dec but settles in am tmrw and Dec
This 👇 + my serious theory is that a certain sitting Pres liked the voting outcome that followed his “ear shot” theatrics and is now orchestrated today’s event as casus belli for his further implementation of Project2025 etc
September 10, 2025 at 7:52 PM
This 👇 + my serious theory is that a certain sitting Pres liked the voting outcome that followed his “ear shot” theatrics and is now orchestrated today’s event as casus belli for his further implementation of Project2025 etc
I love history fractals in mkts
From Richard Russell’s charts. 1979.
‘Madness to buy collectibles’
‘Madness to buy collectibles’
September 10, 2025 at 6:57 PM
I love history fractals in mkts
Reposted
I'm also not sure why outlets aren't publishing the "five myths about genAI for enterprise," which run contrary to any assertion of any "learning gap" with users. You can read the report! It says all of this!
August 21, 2025 at 8:12 PM
I'm also not sure why outlets aren't publishing the "five myths about genAI for enterprise," which run contrary to any assertion of any "learning gap" with users. You can read the report! It says all of this!
🎯 … 🤯 at the legit macro voices praising US / DJT for the EU deal… same as JP and whatnot -
"Fugayzi, fugazi. It's a whazy. It's a woozie. It's fairy dust. It doesn't exist. It's never landed. It is no matter. It's not on the elemental chart. It's not fucking real.”
Great 🧵 x.com/jorgeliborei...
"Fugayzi, fugazi. It's a whazy. It's a woozie. It's fairy dust. It doesn't exist. It's never landed. It is no matter. It's not on the elemental chart. It's not fucking real.”
Great 🧵 x.com/jorgeliborei...
July 29, 2025 at 10:29 AM
🎯 … 🤯 at the legit macro voices praising US / DJT for the EU deal… same as JP and whatnot -
"Fugayzi, fugazi. It's a whazy. It's a woozie. It's fairy dust. It doesn't exist. It's never landed. It is no matter. It's not on the elemental chart. It's not fucking real.”
Great 🧵 x.com/jorgeliborei...
"Fugayzi, fugazi. It's a whazy. It's a woozie. It's fairy dust. It doesn't exist. It's never landed. It is no matter. It's not on the elemental chart. It's not fucking real.”
Great 🧵 x.com/jorgeliborei...
Tend to agree w this Glonzo theory.
Vax chips, gas oven bans, trans in sports, millions of illegals gangsters, anti-Christian and anti-whites persecution,
and many more imagined issues met with imagined solutions by T / MAGA while the left+center politics mumbles and fumbles :(
Populism wins…
Vax chips, gas oven bans, trans in sports, millions of illegals gangsters, anti-Christian and anti-whites persecution,
and many more imagined issues met with imagined solutions by T / MAGA while the left+center politics mumbles and fumbles :(
Populism wins…
I think @opinionhaver.bsky.social's theory of glonzo kinda explains why Trump thrives in the internet era. People are constantly creating imaginary issues, and Trump has this magic ability to completely go along with it, rather than treating them with the contempt they deserves.
June 23, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Tend to agree w this Glonzo theory.
Vax chips, gas oven bans, trans in sports, millions of illegals gangsters, anti-Christian and anti-whites persecution,
and many more imagined issues met with imagined solutions by T / MAGA while the left+center politics mumbles and fumbles :(
Populism wins…
Vax chips, gas oven bans, trans in sports, millions of illegals gangsters, anti-Christian and anti-whites persecution,
and many more imagined issues met with imagined solutions by T / MAGA while the left+center politics mumbles and fumbles :(
Populism wins…
Handy fact-checking 🧵 on vaccines / RFK 👇🏾
RFK Jr. spouted dangerous vaccine falsehoods on national TV. As a parent and infectious diseases doctor, I couldn't stay silent. Here's what the data actually shows. 🧵
RFK Jr is on Fox News going full anti-vax
June 13, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Handy fact-checking 🧵 on vaccines / RFK 👇🏾
Unsurprising 🧵 on crypto hypocrisies.
Societal Amnesia. Goldfish memory and no concept permanence. Peak nihilism.
It is what it is. We are here not to be right but to make $$.
Flatten brain folds. Dumb it down. This is the majority electorate and marginal price-setter.
Societal Amnesia. Goldfish memory and no concept permanence. Peak nihilism.
It is what it is. We are here not to be right but to make $$.
Flatten brain folds. Dumb it down. This is the majority electorate and marginal price-setter.
Some of my favorite crypto hypocrisies from when I was at the SEC:
1. Lawmakers yelled at us for not suing Binance fast enough and have since gone absolutely silent since Trump got in business with CZ
1. Lawmakers yelled at us for not suing Binance fast enough and have since gone absolutely silent since Trump got in business with CZ
May 26, 2025 at 8:56 AM
Unsurprising 🧵 on crypto hypocrisies.
Societal Amnesia. Goldfish memory and no concept permanence. Peak nihilism.
It is what it is. We are here not to be right but to make $$.
Flatten brain folds. Dumb it down. This is the majority electorate and marginal price-setter.
Societal Amnesia. Goldfish memory and no concept permanence. Peak nihilism.
It is what it is. We are here not to be right but to make $$.
Flatten brain folds. Dumb it down. This is the majority electorate and marginal price-setter.
What if the next VIX spike + risk off comes not from the too obvious events 👇🏾 listed, but from Miller / DJT going to war against SCOTUS?
last few days SCOTUS showed spine & air is full of “suspend habeas corpus” and “ignore the courts as they’ve been hijacked” from the MAGA led by DJT rants
last few days SCOTUS showed spine & air is full of “suspend habeas corpus” and “ignore the courts as they’ve been hijacked” from the MAGA led by DJT rants
May 16, 2025 at 8:58 PM
What if the next VIX spike + risk off comes not from the too obvious events 👇🏾 listed, but from Miller / DJT going to war against SCOTUS?
last few days SCOTUS showed spine & air is full of “suspend habeas corpus” and “ignore the courts as they’ve been hijacked” from the MAGA led by DJT rants
last few days SCOTUS showed spine & air is full of “suspend habeas corpus” and “ignore the courts as they’ve been hijacked” from the MAGA led by DJT rants
macro trade Econ slowdown basket:
+ Bot VX Jun and Aug (VIX futs) ~22.3 here.
+ Short biggish ES (SPX futs) from 5730, small RTY 2042.
+ Long Fed SOFR Dec25 from 96.35, +Jun26 96.76 (too early), Sep28 96.52.
+ Short HYG (or HYB futs, HY corp debt) from 78.66.
NB this is overlay/hedge vs core book.
+ Bot VX Jun and Aug (VIX futs) ~22.3 here.
+ Short biggish ES (SPX futs) from 5730, small RTY 2042.
+ Long Fed SOFR Dec25 from 96.35, +Jun26 96.76 (too early), Sep28 96.52.
+ Short HYG (or HYB futs, HY corp debt) from 78.66.
NB this is overlay/hedge vs core book.
✅ exit half VX May 28.25. Will see if > havoc ahead. Could happen given weekend and hard lines on tariffs.
For VX futures, long term beta between 30 DTE constant maturity and SPX is .8v rise for a 1% drop in s&p — ie today rise in VIX VX is pretty high and maybe compensates for recent complacency.
For VX futures, long term beta between 30 DTE constant maturity and SPX is .8v rise for a 1% drop in s&p — ie today rise in VIX VX is pretty high and maybe compensates for recent complacency.
May 8, 2025 at 5:55 PM
macro trade Econ slowdown basket:
+ Bot VX Jun and Aug (VIX futs) ~22.3 here.
+ Short biggish ES (SPX futs) from 5730, small RTY 2042.
+ Long Fed SOFR Dec25 from 96.35, +Jun26 96.76 (too early), Sep28 96.52.
+ Short HYG (or HYB futs, HY corp debt) from 78.66.
NB this is overlay/hedge vs core book.
+ Bot VX Jun and Aug (VIX futs) ~22.3 here.
+ Short biggish ES (SPX futs) from 5730, small RTY 2042.
+ Long Fed SOFR Dec25 from 96.35, +Jun26 96.76 (too early), Sep28 96.52.
+ Short HYG (or HYB futs, HY corp debt) from 78.66.
NB this is overlay/hedge vs core book.
Trader’s paradise #macro
No tariffs. Tariffs. Trade war good. Trade war bad. Up down. Banning all vaccines. We love biotech. We want growth and oil drilling. Good for energy. Now bad for energy because low prices. We want a deal with China. No we don't. This guy is fired. No this gal is hired. No stocks are up. Dollar down.
April 22, 2025 at 5:27 PM
Trader’s paradise #macro
Who listens to Dr Hussman’s market views after decades of public underperformance? HSFGX et al
April 15, 2025 at 2:22 PM
Who listens to Dr Hussman’s market views after decades of public underperformance? HSFGX et al
Reposted
Look how that Overton window just sliiiiiides
First it was "illegal" immigrants criminals
Then it was it was simply immigrants
Then it's lawful us residents/green card holders
Now it's criminal us citizens
GUESS WHO'S NEXT
First it was "illegal" immigrants criminals
Then it was it was simply immigrants
Then it's lawful us residents/green card holders
Now it's criminal us citizens
GUESS WHO'S NEXT
Leavitt confirmed that the WH is working on deporting US citizens to El Salvador
April 8, 2025 at 7:32 PM
Look how that Overton window just sliiiiiides
First it was "illegal" immigrants criminals
Then it was it was simply immigrants
Then it's lawful us residents/green card holders
Now it's criminal us citizens
GUESS WHO'S NEXT
First it was "illegal" immigrants criminals
Then it was it was simply immigrants
Then it's lawful us residents/green card holders
Now it's criminal us citizens
GUESS WHO'S NEXT
VX VIX note by Dean Curnutt @ Alpha Exch:
SPX 4% down days since 1990, sorted from lowest to highest VIX on that day...Today's is second lowest VIX of this sample... Could be that incoming vol positioning was not all that vulnerable... Could be that there's more to come.
SPX 4% down days since 1990, sorted from lowest to highest VIX on that day...Today's is second lowest VIX of this sample... Could be that incoming vol positioning was not all that vulnerable... Could be that there's more to come.
April 3, 2025 at 6:49 PM
VX VIX note by Dean Curnutt @ Alpha Exch:
SPX 4% down days since 1990, sorted from lowest to highest VIX on that day...Today's is second lowest VIX of this sample... Could be that incoming vol positioning was not all that vulnerable... Could be that there's more to come.
SPX 4% down days since 1990, sorted from lowest to highest VIX on that day...Today's is second lowest VIX of this sample... Could be that incoming vol positioning was not all that vulnerable... Could be that there's more to come.
Tame uptick in GDPnow by Atlanta Fed on Gold adjustment last week - let’s see what tmrw brings . Not bullish US risk.
Global Econ fears up too. #macro
Global Econ fears up too. #macro
March 27, 2025 at 10:32 AM
Tame uptick in GDPnow by Atlanta Fed on Gold adjustment last week - let’s see what tmrw brings . Not bullish US risk.
Global Econ fears up too. #macro
Global Econ fears up too. #macro
🤡 it’s not #politics to say “read this article and MAX SELL USD”
From Hillary’s private email servers to boxes in Mar-A-Lago to now this… I’m reading Russian media and most popular pro-terrorist blogs and they are happy about this US Admin… Kakistocracy…
From Hillary’s private email servers to boxes in Mar-A-Lago to now this… I’m reading Russian media and most popular pro-terrorist blogs and they are happy about this US Admin… Kakistocracy…
March 24, 2025 at 6:09 PM
🤡 it’s not #politics to say “read this article and MAX SELL USD”
From Hillary’s private email servers to boxes in Mar-A-Lago to now this… I’m reading Russian media and most popular pro-terrorist blogs and they are happy about this US Admin… Kakistocracy…
From Hillary’s private email servers to boxes in Mar-A-Lago to now this… I’m reading Russian media and most popular pro-terrorist blogs and they are happy about this US Admin… Kakistocracy…
#macro pstns:
✅ short NQ exit today as shifting from delta1 to more convex put spreads
🤔 VX futs cal switched to +Apr-May as Mar went front (large decay on any reversal). It’s working. Tgt= inversion.
✅Rec UST STIR is working great, starting to leg into -ZB (pay 30Y) today
✅ short NQ exit today as shifting from delta1 to more convex put spreads
🤔 VX futs cal switched to +Apr-May as Mar went front (large decay on any reversal). It’s working. Tgt= inversion.
✅Rec UST STIR is working great, starting to leg into -ZB (pay 30Y) today
Pepperidge Farm remembers.
Delayed mkt reactions happen all the time.
Discl: long starter size VX calendar Mar/Apr paid -50 aiming at contango.
Eyeing short $NQ esp for $NVDA news Feb 26th.
Long (receiving) UST esp front end, as the eqs crash/ decline will price in cuts & STIR is very cheap here
Delayed mkt reactions happen all the time.
Discl: long starter size VX calendar Mar/Apr paid -50 aiming at contango.
Eyeing short $NQ esp for $NVDA news Feb 26th.
Long (receiving) UST esp front end, as the eqs crash/ decline will price in cuts & STIR is very cheap here
February 25, 2025 at 5:10 PM
#macro pstns:
✅ short NQ exit today as shifting from delta1 to more convex put spreads
🤔 VX futs cal switched to +Apr-May as Mar went front (large decay on any reversal). It’s working. Tgt= inversion.
✅Rec UST STIR is working great, starting to leg into -ZB (pay 30Y) today
✅ short NQ exit today as shifting from delta1 to more convex put spreads
🤔 VX futs cal switched to +Apr-May as Mar went front (large decay on any reversal). It’s working. Tgt= inversion.
✅Rec UST STIR is working great, starting to leg into -ZB (pay 30Y) today
Breaking Bad s5e6 “Buyout” is so real for full time mkt pros.
Jesse asks Walter “And when it comes down to it, are we in the meth business? Or the money business?“🧠
The next day Walter gives the empire business speech youtu.be/c18_Thy6kJo
🧠Realized PnL (risk adj or not)>ego,vibes,AUM,media attn.
Jesse asks Walter “And when it comes down to it, are we in the meth business? Or the money business?“🧠
The next day Walter gives the empire business speech youtu.be/c18_Thy6kJo
🧠Realized PnL (risk adj or not)>ego,vibes,AUM,media attn.
December 17, 2024 at 9:23 AM
Breaking Bad s5e6 “Buyout” is so real for full time mkt pros.
Jesse asks Walter “And when it comes down to it, are we in the meth business? Or the money business?“🧠
The next day Walter gives the empire business speech youtu.be/c18_Thy6kJo
🧠Realized PnL (risk adj or not)>ego,vibes,AUM,media attn.
Jesse asks Walter “And when it comes down to it, are we in the meth business? Or the money business?“🧠
The next day Walter gives the empire business speech youtu.be/c18_Thy6kJo
🧠Realized PnL (risk adj or not)>ego,vibes,AUM,media attn.
h/t 🔒 acc:
New normal in ‘Murica . Bet MAGA won’t peep about mUh BuRiSmA now…
The sweet irony of the hoopla around Hunter this week while Don Jr clandestinely joins two microcap boards in one week…
$UMAC $PSQH
qz.com/donald-trump...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
New normal in ‘Murica . Bet MAGA won’t peep about mUh BuRiSmA now…
The sweet irony of the hoopla around Hunter this week while Don Jr clandestinely joins two microcap boards in one week…
$UMAC $PSQH
qz.com/donald-trump...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Donald Trump Jr. joins a drone maker's board — and the stock soars 90%
The president-elect's son will help advise Unusual Machines on domestic production of drones
qz.com
December 3, 2024 at 1:53 PM
h/t 🔒 acc:
New normal in ‘Murica . Bet MAGA won’t peep about mUh BuRiSmA now…
The sweet irony of the hoopla around Hunter this week while Don Jr clandestinely joins two microcap boards in one week…
$UMAC $PSQH
qz.com/donald-trump...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
New normal in ‘Murica . Bet MAGA won’t peep about mUh BuRiSmA now…
The sweet irony of the hoopla around Hunter this week while Don Jr clandestinely joins two microcap boards in one week…
$UMAC $PSQH
qz.com/donald-trump...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Don’t if it’s the real PTJ — gonna flw him here because my X macro feed is dominated by right or libertarian-leaning bigwigs.
For a starting context PTJ latest 2024-10-22 intv youtu.be/uUzG1Arzb9M . Longterm short bonds?
For a starting context PTJ latest 2024-10-22 intv youtu.be/uUzG1Arzb9M . Longterm short bonds?
December 1, 2024 at 1:36 PM
Don’t if it’s the real PTJ — gonna flw him here because my X macro feed is dominated by right or libertarian-leaning bigwigs.
For a starting context PTJ latest 2024-10-22 intv youtu.be/uUzG1Arzb9M . Longterm short bonds?
For a starting context PTJ latest 2024-10-22 intv youtu.be/uUzG1Arzb9M . Longterm short bonds?
"The loser bemoans mankind’s flaws and irrationality instead of exploiting them for fun and profit."
—N.N.Taleb
“Some people get rich studying artificial intelligence. Me, I make money studying natural stupidity.”
—Carl Icahn
—N.N.Taleb
“Some people get rich studying artificial intelligence. Me, I make money studying natural stupidity.”
—Carl Icahn
November 30, 2024 at 6:38 AM
"The loser bemoans mankind’s flaws and irrationality instead of exploiting them for fun and profit."
—N.N.Taleb
“Some people get rich studying artificial intelligence. Me, I make money studying natural stupidity.”
—Carl Icahn
—N.N.Taleb
“Some people get rich studying artificial intelligence. Me, I make money studying natural stupidity.”
—Carl Icahn
👋 finally signed up here to fllw @sellingtheta.bsky.social + @dow.bsky.social + @nopeitslily.bsky.social + @goodetrades.com — 🍻 THX to each of U for sharing ur unique views!
Me:
L/S prop (FO) book of <=SMID cap biotech / pharma + opportunistically equity indices / rates when they are stretched.
Me:
L/S prop (FO) book of <=SMID cap biotech / pharma + opportunistically equity indices / rates when they are stretched.
November 27, 2024 at 7:04 AM
👋 finally signed up here to fllw @sellingtheta.bsky.social + @dow.bsky.social + @nopeitslily.bsky.social + @goodetrades.com — 🍻 THX to each of U for sharing ur unique views!
Me:
L/S prop (FO) book of <=SMID cap biotech / pharma + opportunistically equity indices / rates when they are stretched.
Me:
L/S prop (FO) book of <=SMID cap biotech / pharma + opportunistically equity indices / rates when they are stretched.
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