Johannes Fischer
@fischerj.bsky.social
build software and poll for democrats. views mine. Mostly formerly https://twitter.com/johannes_ff
https://letterboxd.com/fischerj/
https://letterboxd.com/fischerj/
wild to watch twitter melt people's brains, I say to myself, smugly, scrolling twitter (genuinely is sad to see a bunch of polling analysts get vulgar and petty the minute there's money to be made)
November 16, 2025 at 8:20 PM
wild to watch twitter melt people's brains, I say to myself, smugly, scrolling twitter (genuinely is sad to see a bunch of polling analysts get vulgar and petty the minute there's money to be made)
Reposted by Johannes Fischer
"When electoral gains from moderation have been exhausted—when Democrats are running moderates in every competitive district and still losing—the task isn’t to moderate harder. It’s to give voters reason to believe politics can deliver real change." data4democracy.substack.com/p/the-new-yo...
The New York Times Argues “Moving to the Center Is the Way to Win.” But the Data Shows the Strategy Is Tapped Out.
Democrats already run moderates in nearly every swing district. It's not enough. A data-driven response to the case for centrism as a core electoral strategy.
data4democracy.substack.com
October 20, 2025 at 10:24 PM
"When electoral gains from moderation have been exhausted—when Democrats are running moderates in every competitive district and still losing—the task isn’t to moderate harder. It’s to give voters reason to believe politics can deliver real change." data4democracy.substack.com/p/the-new-yo...
nytimes editorial board dedicating itself to providing some of the dumbest ideas possible: www.nytimes.com/2025/10/20/o...
Opinion | America Still Has a Political Center, and It’s the Key to Winning
www.nytimes.com
October 20, 2025 at 2:00 PM
nytimes editorial board dedicating itself to providing some of the dumbest ideas possible: www.nytimes.com/2025/10/20/o...
Reposted by Johannes Fischer
"There’s a false choice to say we either talk about how expensive things are under Trump, but we can only talk about that and we can’t talk about these assaults on our freedoms. And for a while that was the common wisdom among pollsters," says @vanhollen.senate.gov. newrepublic.com/article/2013...
Chris Van Hollen Is Angry—at Trump, and at His Party’s Lame Pollsters
Senator Chris Van Hollen explains why he went to El Salvador earlier this year, while the rest of the party tried to downplay immigration issues, and his decision to go to Iowa and flirt with a 2028 p...
newrepublic.com
October 3, 2025 at 2:21 PM
"There’s a false choice to say we either talk about how expensive things are under Trump, but we can only talk about that and we can’t talk about these assaults on our freedoms. And for a while that was the common wisdom among pollsters," says @vanhollen.senate.gov. newrepublic.com/article/2013...
Reposted by Johannes Fischer
Wait, Tyler Cowen has been writing about how to find virgins since 2009 while he was a professor at George Mason University
October 2, 2025 at 9:04 PM
Wait, Tyler Cowen has been writing about how to find virgins since 2009 while he was a professor at George Mason University
Reposted by Johannes Fischer
democrats can now reach young men by telling them that trump wants to take away their naruto and their one piece
September 29, 2025 at 2:55 PM
democrats can now reach young men by telling them that trump wants to take away their naruto and their one piece
I wish Ezra had engaged with this idea during their interview, given multiple chances to
September 29, 2025 at 1:50 AM
I wish Ezra had engaged with this idea during their interview, given multiple chances to
This is what politics is, so many have forgotten
one way you could describe lincoln's approach is of never getting ahead of the public on its attitudes, but holding an immovable set of principles on where the country ought to be and where he hopes to lead it
September 28, 2025 at 7:00 PM
This is what politics is, so many have forgotten
Reposted by Johannes Fischer
The following is a statement from the WGA on ABC’s decision to pull ‘Jimmy Kimmel Live!’
September 18, 2025 at 2:41 AM
The following is a statement from the WGA on ABC’s decision to pull ‘Jimmy Kimmel Live!’
Reposted by Johannes Fischer
Good morning. Here is my reply to Matt Yglesias' "reply" to my article on moderates. This is a comprehensive accounting of my and other evidence, with some clarifications of findings and my position. I hope you will read and share.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data-over-...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data-over-...
August 19, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Good morning. Here is my reply to Matt Yglesias' "reply" to my article on moderates. This is a comprehensive accounting of my and other evidence, with some clarifications of findings and my position. I hope you will read and share.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data-over-...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data-over-...
Reposted by Johannes Fischer
OK here's the blog post.
1) Split Ticket's WAR model is biased in favor of moderates
2) We create our own WAR measure w/ stronger model; correlates w/ @gelliottmorris.com's
3) Correlation ≠ causation. Diff-in-diffs & RDDs show no moderation effects
data4democracy.substack.com/p/do-moderat...
1) Split Ticket's WAR model is biased in favor of moderates
2) We create our own WAR measure w/ stronger model; correlates w/ @gelliottmorris.com's
3) Correlation ≠ causation. Diff-in-diffs & RDDs show no moderation effects
data4democracy.substack.com/p/do-moderat...
August 14, 2025 at 8:08 PM
OK here's the blog post.
1) Split Ticket's WAR model is biased in favor of moderates
2) We create our own WAR measure w/ stronger model; correlates w/ @gelliottmorris.com's
3) Correlation ≠ causation. Diff-in-diffs & RDDs show no moderation effects
data4democracy.substack.com/p/do-moderat...
1) Split Ticket's WAR model is biased in favor of moderates
2) We create our own WAR measure w/ stronger model; correlates w/ @gelliottmorris.com's
3) Correlation ≠ causation. Diff-in-diffs & RDDs show no moderation effects
data4democracy.substack.com/p/do-moderat...
Reposted by Johannes Fischer
was wondering when someone was gonna say this. ideological moderates do not have systematically higher WAR. i have a piece on this coming out tomorrow
The four highest WAR dem representatives are Jared Golden, Henry Cuellar, Marcy Kaptur and MGP. 3/4 of these are very conservative for Dems and the fourth Marcy Kaptur has a very strange voting history that apparently works well in Ohio (deragatory).
Popularism is mostly true but is hurt by the
Popularism is mostly true but is hurt by the
We hope this new WAR/P will be useful to Congress and elections nerds. We also hope that people will notice the wide confidence intervals on our estimates. Candidate skill is hard to measure and people aggressively using WAR to guide party strategy are probably over-fitting to noise.
August 12, 2025 at 1:42 PM
was wondering when someone was gonna say this. ideological moderates do not have systematically higher WAR. i have a piece on this coming out tomorrow
bao wow
August 5, 2025 at 7:53 PM
bao wow
Reposted by Johannes Fischer
I genuinely cannot believe how many Democrats are spending their energy on destroying Mamdani when the GOP is trying to turn ICE into a full on secret police by drastically raising their budget
June 29, 2025 at 1:06 AM
I genuinely cannot believe how many Democrats are spending their energy on destroying Mamdani when the GOP is trying to turn ICE into a full on secret police by drastically raising their budget
it’s not too late to endorse @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social, final results won’t be in for a while
June 25, 2025 at 3:07 AM
it’s not too late to endorse @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social, final results won’t be in for a while
Reposted by Johannes Fischer
Some very welcome good news! There's never been a better time to support our worker-led local newsroom! 51st.news/we-received-...
We received our 501c3 Status!
A welcome piece of good news and an important time to support our work
51st.news
June 16, 2025 at 7:04 PM
Some very welcome good news! There's never been a better time to support our worker-led local newsroom! 51st.news/we-received-...
anyone doing work on climate geo-engineering risk estimation and management?
June 11, 2025 at 8:49 PM
anyone doing work on climate geo-engineering risk estimation and management?
Reposted by Johannes Fischer
i just watched a clip of stephen miller talking to hannity from a few days ago and my god is that guy a stone cold freak. like, everything about him is profoundly off-putting, like a bug in an eggar suit
June 11, 2025 at 12:26 AM
i just watched a clip of stephen miller talking to hannity from a few days ago and my god is that guy a stone cold freak. like, everything about him is profoundly off-putting, like a bug in an eggar suit
Reposted by Johannes Fischer
if your grand approach to politics is bloodless poll-testing so that you're always aligned with wherever public opinion happens to be, you've already lost
May 25, 2025 at 2:59 PM
if your grand approach to politics is bloodless poll-testing so that you're always aligned with wherever public opinion happens to be, you've already lost
Reposted by Johannes Fischer
This is correct! Here’s why & why it matters: www.bostonglobe.com/2025/05/14/b...
May 19, 2025 at 1:22 PM
This is correct! Here’s why & why it matters: www.bostonglobe.com/2025/05/14/b...
Reposted by Johannes Fischer
"hi propensity voters" are voters who demonstrate high civic engagement because when they see someone they are disproportionately likely to say hello
in this paper I will
in this paper I will
May 15, 2025 at 2:18 PM
"hi propensity voters" are voters who demonstrate high civic engagement because when they see someone they are disproportionately likely to say hello
in this paper I will
in this paper I will
Reposted by Johannes Fischer
It’s really striking how irregular the bands of mostly men conducting federal immigration enforcement are. They seem to have no particular uniform, they wear a variety of different agency initials on their tactical vests, or none at all, they’re inconsistent about displaying a badge…
I know Great Barrington well and it is extremely hard to imagine any scenario on this earth in this small town that would require cops to roll out like they're going to war.
May 11, 2025 at 2:39 AM
It’s really striking how irregular the bands of mostly men conducting federal immigration enforcement are. They seem to have no particular uniform, they wear a variety of different agency initials on their tactical vests, or none at all, they’re inconsistent about displaying a badge…
Reposted by Johannes Fischer
May 9, 2025 at 3:41 PM
I like this a lot! I think it's worth doing is disambiguating between the marginal disengaged voter, likely one more responsive to inflation/economic conditions/immigration and the median/mean disengaged voter. I think we can _much_ more easily observe the marginal voter than we can the median.
New piece: Trump’s approval rating among low-engagement voters has fallen 30 points since Jan, the worst decline for any group. The GOP’s big advantage with hard-to-reach voters has evaporated as economic turmoil & toxic politics turns them away from Trump
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-do-di...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-do-di...
May 6, 2025 at 5:55 PM
I like this a lot! I think it's worth doing is disambiguating between the marginal disengaged voter, likely one more responsive to inflation/economic conditions/immigration and the median/mean disengaged voter. I think we can _much_ more easily observe the marginal voter than we can the median.
Reposted by Johannes Fischer
New piece: Trump’s approval rating among low-engagement voters has fallen 30 points since Jan, the worst decline for any group. The GOP’s big advantage with hard-to-reach voters has evaporated as economic turmoil & toxic politics turns them away from Trump
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-do-di...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-do-di...
May 6, 2025 at 12:09 PM
New piece: Trump’s approval rating among low-engagement voters has fallen 30 points since Jan, the worst decline for any group. The GOP’s big advantage with hard-to-reach voters has evaporated as economic turmoil & toxic politics turns them away from Trump
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-do-di...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-do-di...