Bill Connelly
@espnbillc.bsky.social
ESPN writer, professional nerd. SP+. Author of three books (Study Hall, 50 Best* and Forward Progress). College football, soccer, tennis. Puma addiction.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1BKvo23DyGppxvRifqFgwkUoflPLQX5wabjUDIV4qUZA/edit?usp=sharing
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1BKvo23DyGppxvRifqFgwkUoflPLQX5wabjUDIV4qUZA/edit?usp=sharing
Pinned
Bill Connelly
@espnbillc.bsky.social
· Sep 2
Forward Progress: The Definitive Guide to the Future of College Football
Amazon.com: Forward Progress: The Definitive Guide to the Future of College Football: 9781637278703: Connelly, Bill: Books
www.amazon.com
Hello, friends. It's FORWARD PROGRESS DAY.
"A cinematic celebration of college football’s exploding influence and a rigorous look at how and why the sport may look totally new once again," according to whoever wrote the summary blurb on Amazon.
www.amazon.com/Forward-Prog...
"A cinematic celebration of college football’s exploding influence and a rigorous look at how and why the sport may look totally new once again," according to whoever wrote the summary blurb on Amazon.
www.amazon.com/Forward-Prog...
Alright, looks like there were some issues with calculating records in here, and it missed a few, so deleting. Let's try something different instead...
November 15, 2025 at 7:17 PM
Alright, looks like there were some issues with calculating records in here, and it missed a few, so deleting. Let's try something different instead...
Many of the best teams in the country looking awful at the moment. A&M ... Indiana ... Pitt ... Harvard ...
November 15, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Many of the best teams in the country looking awful at the moment. A&M ... Indiana ... Pitt ... Harvard ...
Reposted by Bill Connelly
* Remember: Most teams will lose another game
* New SEC vs. old bosses
* It's been a while since Pitt ruined a season (besides its own)
* 9-4 Duke, ACC champ: still on the table
* USC-Iowa could be REALLY good
* Superfecta! Playlist! CIAA CHAMPIONSHIP!
WEEK 12 PREVIEW: www.espn.com/college-foot...
* New SEC vs. old bosses
* It's been a while since Pitt ruined a season (besides its own)
* 9-4 Duke, ACC champ: still on the table
* USC-Iowa could be REALLY good
* Superfecta! Playlist! CIAA CHAMPIONSHIP!
WEEK 12 PREVIEW: www.espn.com/college-foot...
Old SEC vs. new SEC, Notre Dame's last test and more ACC chaos ahead in Week 12
Texas-Georgia, Oklahoma-Bama and Notre Dame-Pitt highlight another weekend of high-stakes matchups.
www.espn.com
November 14, 2025 at 1:31 PM
* Remember: Most teams will lose another game
* New SEC vs. old bosses
* It's been a while since Pitt ruined a season (besides its own)
* 9-4 Duke, ACC champ: still on the table
* USC-Iowa could be REALLY good
* Superfecta! Playlist! CIAA CHAMPIONSHIP!
WEEK 12 PREVIEW: www.espn.com/college-foot...
* New SEC vs. old bosses
* It's been a while since Pitt ruined a season (besides its own)
* 9-4 Duke, ACC champ: still on the table
* USC-Iowa could be REALLY good
* Superfecta! Playlist! CIAA CHAMPIONSHIP!
WEEK 12 PREVIEW: www.espn.com/college-foot...
* Remember: Most teams will lose another game
* New SEC vs. old bosses
* It's been a while since Pitt ruined a season (besides its own)
* 9-4 Duke, ACC champ: still on the table
* USC-Iowa could be REALLY good
* Superfecta! Playlist! CIAA CHAMPIONSHIP!
WEEK 12 PREVIEW: www.espn.com/college-foot...
* New SEC vs. old bosses
* It's been a while since Pitt ruined a season (besides its own)
* 9-4 Duke, ACC champ: still on the table
* USC-Iowa could be REALLY good
* Superfecta! Playlist! CIAA CHAMPIONSHIP!
WEEK 12 PREVIEW: www.espn.com/college-foot...
Old SEC vs. new SEC, Notre Dame's last test and more ACC chaos ahead in Week 12
Texas-Georgia, Oklahoma-Bama and Notre Dame-Pitt highlight another weekend of high-stakes matchups.
www.espn.com
November 14, 2025 at 1:31 PM
* Remember: Most teams will lose another game
* New SEC vs. old bosses
* It's been a while since Pitt ruined a season (besides its own)
* 9-4 Duke, ACC champ: still on the table
* USC-Iowa could be REALLY good
* Superfecta! Playlist! CIAA CHAMPIONSHIP!
WEEK 12 PREVIEW: www.espn.com/college-foot...
* New SEC vs. old bosses
* It's been a while since Pitt ruined a season (besides its own)
* 9-4 Duke, ACC champ: still on the table
* USC-Iowa could be REALLY good
* Superfecta! Playlist! CIAA CHAMPIONSHIP!
WEEK 12 PREVIEW: www.espn.com/college-foot...
Reposted by Bill Connelly
UMass radio: “This one is for the die hards. This one is for the degenerates. This is for the Sickos.”
November 12, 2025 at 11:58 PM
UMass radio: “This one is for the die hards. This one is for the degenerates. This is for the Sickos.”
Personal update: We’re a Mail-Order Beans family now.
November 12, 2025 at 11:37 PM
Personal update: We’re a Mail-Order Beans family now.
Reposted by Bill Connelly
At the start of October, I ranked how every P4 quarterback had performed to date. You hated it so much that I had no choice but to do it again.
📈 Julian Sayin, Haynes King, Gunner Stockton
📉 Dante Moore, Carson Beck, John Mateer
RANKING QBs: www.espn.com/college-foot...
📈 Julian Sayin, Haynes King, Gunner Stockton
📉 Dante Moore, Carson Beck, John Mateer
RANKING QBs: www.espn.com/college-foot...
Reranking all 68 Power 4 QBs: Who rose and who fell after two months
What have we learned about the quarterbacks as we race to the end of the season?
www.espn.com
November 12, 2025 at 1:27 PM
At the start of October, I ranked how every P4 quarterback had performed to date. You hated it so much that I had no choice but to do it again.
📈 Julian Sayin, Haynes King, Gunner Stockton
📉 Dante Moore, Carson Beck, John Mateer
RANKING QBs: www.espn.com/college-foot...
📈 Julian Sayin, Haynes King, Gunner Stockton
📉 Dante Moore, Carson Beck, John Mateer
RANKING QBs: www.espn.com/college-foot...
Second-most underrated (and maybe second-best?) PJ album behind Yield. Save You, Love Boat Captain, I Am Mine, Thumbing My Way and 1/2 Full are all on my top-20 list.
November 12, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Second-most underrated (and maybe second-best?) PJ album behind Yield. Save You, Love Boat Captain, I Am Mine, Thumbing My Way and 1/2 Full are all on my top-20 list.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL SP+ TOP 766, WEEK 12
* Harvard -2 Michigan State
* Harding -1 Oklahoma State
* Buffalo -98 Buffalo State
* Oberlin's still clinging to a slight lead for 766th! Down to the wire!
Almost forgot to post this week! My bad!
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
* Harvard -2 Michigan State
* Harding -1 Oklahoma State
* Buffalo -98 Buffalo State
* Oberlin's still clinging to a slight lead for 766th! Down to the wire!
Almost forgot to post this week! My bad!
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
November 12, 2025 at 5:50 PM
COLLEGE FOOTBALL SP+ TOP 766, WEEK 12
* Harvard -2 Michigan State
* Harding -1 Oklahoma State
* Buffalo -98 Buffalo State
* Oberlin's still clinging to a slight lead for 766th! Down to the wire!
Almost forgot to post this week! My bad!
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
* Harvard -2 Michigan State
* Harding -1 Oklahoma State
* Buffalo -98 Buffalo State
* Oberlin's still clinging to a slight lead for 766th! Down to the wire!
Almost forgot to post this week! My bad!
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Hell yeah, good to see someone else catching WIAC Fever...
Wisconsin-River Falls has the most prolific offense in the country, nearly 600 yards per game. They beat powerhouse Wisconsin-Whitewater 52-14, for the first time since 2001.
Meet 32-yr-old OC Joe Matheson and his Top Gun offense, one of CFB's best stories.
www.nytimes.com/athletic/679...
Meet 32-yr-old OC Joe Matheson and his Top Gun offense, one of CFB's best stories.
www.nytimes.com/athletic/679...
November 12, 2025 at 5:16 PM
Hell yeah, good to see someone else catching WIAC Fever...
This ruled. Mikel Merino: stud pass rusher.
I watch a lot of ⚽
I watch a lot of 🏈
And honestly, I sometimes feel like I'm watching one become the other. A piece on that for @espn.com:
I watch a lot of 🏈
And honestly, I sometimes feel like I'm watching one become the other. A piece on that for @espn.com:
How Premier League teams are borrowing NFL plays for set piece success
Set piece mania has taken over the Premier League but it seems that teams are taking plays from the NFL. Here's what they have learned.
www.espn.com
November 12, 2025 at 2:02 PM
This ruled. Mikel Merino: stud pass rusher.
At the start of October, I ranked how every P4 quarterback had performed to date. You hated it so much that I had no choice but to do it again.
📈 Julian Sayin, Haynes King, Gunner Stockton
📉 Dante Moore, Carson Beck, John Mateer
RANKING QBs: www.espn.com/college-foot...
📈 Julian Sayin, Haynes King, Gunner Stockton
📉 Dante Moore, Carson Beck, John Mateer
RANKING QBs: www.espn.com/college-foot...
Reranking all 68 Power 4 QBs: Who rose and who fell after two months
What have we learned about the quarterbacks as we race to the end of the season?
www.espn.com
November 12, 2025 at 1:27 PM
At the start of October, I ranked how every P4 quarterback had performed to date. You hated it so much that I had no choice but to do it again.
📈 Julian Sayin, Haynes King, Gunner Stockton
📉 Dante Moore, Carson Beck, John Mateer
RANKING QBs: www.espn.com/college-foot...
📈 Julian Sayin, Haynes King, Gunner Stockton
📉 Dante Moore, Carson Beck, John Mateer
RANKING QBs: www.espn.com/college-foot...
Akron kicked a FG and has just recovered a fumble. Meanwhile, Ohio-WMU (an actual IMPORTANT MAC game) is within 4 points. The MACtion has been *dynamite* tonight.
November 12, 2025 at 3:43 AM
Akron kicked a FG and has just recovered a fumble. Meanwhile, Ohio-WMU (an actual IMPORTANT MAC game) is within 4 points. The MACtion has been *dynamite* tonight.
Reposted by Bill Connelly
If Duke beats UVA this week and a "deciding between 9-4 Duke and 12-1 JMU" scenario becomes more realistic, look out...
bsky.app/profile/jeff...
bsky.app/profile/jeff...
How close are we to the ACC being left out of the playoff?
November 10, 2025 at 4:20 PM
If Duke beats UVA this week and a "deciding between 9-4 Duke and 12-1 JMU" scenario becomes more realistic, look out...
bsky.app/profile/jeff...
bsky.app/profile/jeff...
Reposted by Bill Connelly
Ohio State's run game's pretty meh (and Bama's stinks). A&M's run D is dicey. IU gives up big plays. Behren Morton makes me nervous. I worked through FATAL FLAWS for the remaining CFP contenders.
Also: SP+ movers! Heisman of the week! Favorite games!
WEEK 11 RECAP: www.espn.com/college-foot...
Also: SP+ movers! Heisman of the week! Favorite games!
WEEK 11 RECAP: www.espn.com/college-foot...
Potential fatal flaws that could sink 26 playoff contenders
Can Ohio State run enough? Will Georgia's D show up? What could trip up Indiana? We look at the best teams' weak spots.
www.espn.com
November 9, 2025 at 11:12 PM
Ohio State's run game's pretty meh (and Bama's stinks). A&M's run D is dicey. IU gives up big plays. Behren Morton makes me nervous. I worked through FATAL FLAWS for the remaining CFP contenders.
Also: SP+ movers! Heisman of the week! Favorite games!
WEEK 11 RECAP: www.espn.com/college-foot...
Also: SP+ movers! Heisman of the week! Favorite games!
WEEK 11 RECAP: www.espn.com/college-foot...
WEEK 12 SP+ PICKS
Bama 25, OU 24 😬
Georgia 27, Texas 23
ND 32, Pitt 24
Duke 30, UVA 28
USC 29, Iowa 24
Utah 35, Baylor 22
Louisville 29, Clemson 23
Rebs 35, Gators 17
BYU 30, TCU 23
Full list: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Bama 25, OU 24 😬
Georgia 27, Texas 23
ND 32, Pitt 24
Duke 30, UVA 28
USC 29, Iowa 24
Utah 35, Baylor 22
Louisville 29, Clemson 23
Rebs 35, Gators 17
BYU 30, TCU 23
Full list: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
November 9, 2025 at 11:39 PM
WEEK 12 SP+ PICKS
Bama 25, OU 24 😬
Georgia 27, Texas 23
ND 32, Pitt 24
Duke 30, UVA 28
USC 29, Iowa 24
Utah 35, Baylor 22
Louisville 29, Clemson 23
Rebs 35, Gators 17
BYU 30, TCU 23
Full list: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Bama 25, OU 24 😬
Georgia 27, Texas 23
ND 32, Pitt 24
Duke 30, UVA 28
USC 29, Iowa 24
Utah 35, Baylor 22
Louisville 29, Clemson 23
Rebs 35, Gators 17
BYU 30, TCU 23
Full list: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Ohio State's run game's pretty meh (and Bama's stinks). A&M's run D is dicey. IU gives up big plays. Behren Morton makes me nervous. I worked through FATAL FLAWS for the remaining CFP contenders.
Also: SP+ movers! Heisman of the week! Favorite games!
WEEK 11 RECAP: www.espn.com/college-foot...
Also: SP+ movers! Heisman of the week! Favorite games!
WEEK 11 RECAP: www.espn.com/college-foot...
Potential fatal flaws that could sink 26 playoff contenders
Can Ohio State run enough? Will Georgia's D show up? What could trip up Indiana? We look at the best teams' weak spots.
www.espn.com
November 9, 2025 at 11:12 PM
Ohio State's run game's pretty meh (and Bama's stinks). A&M's run D is dicey. IU gives up big plays. Behren Morton makes me nervous. I worked through FATAL FLAWS for the remaining CFP contenders.
Also: SP+ movers! Heisman of the week! Favorite games!
WEEK 11 RECAP: www.espn.com/college-foot...
Also: SP+ movers! Heisman of the week! Favorite games!
WEEK 11 RECAP: www.espn.com/college-foot...
SP+ is updated!
Ohio State is pulling away, Hawaii (!) is surging, BYU's offensive ratings take a hit, and the ACC's closer to the American than the B1G.
www.espn.com/college-foot...
Ohio State is pulling away, Hawaii (!) is surging, BYU's offensive ratings take a hit, and the ACC's closer to the American than the B1G.
www.espn.com/college-foot...
Updated SP+ rankings for all 136 FBS teams
The latest SP+ rankings, plus strength of schedule and résumé SP+, following this weekend's results.
www.espn.com
November 9, 2025 at 3:32 PM
SP+ is updated!
Ohio State is pulling away, Hawaii (!) is surging, BYU's offensive ratings take a hit, and the ACC's closer to the American than the B1G.
www.espn.com/college-foot...
Ohio State is pulling away, Hawaii (!) is surging, BYU's offensive ratings take a hit, and the ACC's closer to the American than the B1G.
www.espn.com/college-foot...
LOWEST POSTGAME WIN EXPECTANCY IN A WIN, WEEK 11:
UL > TXST 2.1%
AFA > SJSU 2.2%
SHSU > Ore St 4.5%
Army > Temple 9.3%
Wisc > Wash 19.4%
Wake > UVA 19.5%
Rice > UAB 21.0%
Ball St > Kent St 37.1%
UNC > Stanford 38.3%
ISU > TCU 47.4%
Funkiest week by far! Full list:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
UL > TXST 2.1%
AFA > SJSU 2.2%
SHSU > Ore St 4.5%
Army > Temple 9.3%
Wisc > Wash 19.4%
Wake > UVA 19.5%
Rice > UAB 21.0%
Ball St > Kent St 37.1%
UNC > Stanford 38.3%
ISU > TCU 47.4%
Funkiest week by far! Full list:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
2025 SP+
docs.google.com
November 9, 2025 at 1:17 PM
LOWEST POSTGAME WIN EXPECTANCY IN A WIN, WEEK 11:
UL > TXST 2.1%
AFA > SJSU 2.2%
SHSU > Ore St 4.5%
Army > Temple 9.3%
Wisc > Wash 19.4%
Wake > UVA 19.5%
Rice > UAB 21.0%
Ball St > Kent St 37.1%
UNC > Stanford 38.3%
ISU > TCU 47.4%
Funkiest week by far! Full list:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
UL > TXST 2.1%
AFA > SJSU 2.2%
SHSU > Ore St 4.5%
Army > Temple 9.3%
Wisc > Wash 19.4%
Wake > UVA 19.5%
Rice > UAB 21.0%
Ball St > Kent St 37.1%
UNC > Stanford 38.3%
ISU > TCU 47.4%
Funkiest week by far! Full list:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Reposted by Bill Connelly
* Biggest game in Lubbock since '08
* Rain and running in Iowa City
* No pressure, Matt Zollers
* How does the ACC get even messier this week?
* Tulane-Memphis! Chaos Superfecta! Playlist! BISON-FIGHTING HAWKS FOR THE NICKEL TROPHY!
The stakes are set. Week 11 preview: www.espn.com/college-foot...
* Rain and running in Iowa City
* No pressure, Matt Zollers
* How does the ACC get even messier this week?
* Tulane-Memphis! Chaos Superfecta! Playlist! BISON-FIGHTING HAWKS FOR THE NICKEL TROPHY!
The stakes are set. Week 11 preview: www.espn.com/college-foot...
Sizing up BYU-Texas Tech, A&M-Mizzou, Oregon-Iowa and 25 other key showdowns
A top-10 meeting in Lubbock, an upset bid in Iowa City and a pair of SEC tests headline the weekend slate.
www.espn.com
November 7, 2025 at 12:17 PM
* Biggest game in Lubbock since '08
* Rain and running in Iowa City
* No pressure, Matt Zollers
* How does the ACC get even messier this week?
* Tulane-Memphis! Chaos Superfecta! Playlist! BISON-FIGHTING HAWKS FOR THE NICKEL TROPHY!
The stakes are set. Week 11 preview: www.espn.com/college-foot...
* Rain and running in Iowa City
* No pressure, Matt Zollers
* How does the ACC get even messier this week?
* Tulane-Memphis! Chaos Superfecta! Playlist! BISON-FIGHTING HAWKS FOR THE NICKEL TROPHY!
The stakes are set. Week 11 preview: www.espn.com/college-foot...
* Biggest game in Lubbock since '08
* Rain and running in Iowa City
* No pressure, Matt Zollers
* How does the ACC get even messier this week?
* Tulane-Memphis! Chaos Superfecta! Playlist! BISON-FIGHTING HAWKS FOR THE NICKEL TROPHY!
The stakes are set. Week 11 preview: www.espn.com/college-foot...
* Rain and running in Iowa City
* No pressure, Matt Zollers
* How does the ACC get even messier this week?
* Tulane-Memphis! Chaos Superfecta! Playlist! BISON-FIGHTING HAWKS FOR THE NICKEL TROPHY!
The stakes are set. Week 11 preview: www.espn.com/college-foot...
Sizing up BYU-Texas Tech, A&M-Mizzou, Oregon-Iowa and 25 other key showdowns
A top-10 meeting in Lubbock, an upset bid in Iowa City and a pair of SEC tests headline the weekend slate.
www.espn.com
November 7, 2025 at 12:17 PM
* Biggest game in Lubbock since '08
* Rain and running in Iowa City
* No pressure, Matt Zollers
* How does the ACC get even messier this week?
* Tulane-Memphis! Chaos Superfecta! Playlist! BISON-FIGHTING HAWKS FOR THE NICKEL TROPHY!
The stakes are set. Week 11 preview: www.espn.com/college-foot...
* Rain and running in Iowa City
* No pressure, Matt Zollers
* How does the ACC get even messier this week?
* Tulane-Memphis! Chaos Superfecta! Playlist! BISON-FIGHTING HAWKS FOR THE NICKEL TROPHY!
The stakes are set. Week 11 preview: www.espn.com/college-foot...
I’m of the belief that If you can actually pull off patience (even if it’s kinda forced on you by the market), it pays off more often than not. Maybe it will here. But season ticket sales are going to be a CHORE…
Wisconsin coach Luke Fickell to return in 2026, AD says
Translated: "This coaching market already has too many teams who will be overpaying, so let's just use this money elsewhere for now."
www.espn.com/college-foot...
Translated: "This coaching market already has too many teams who will be overpaying, so let's just use this money elsewhere for now."
www.espn.com/college-foot...
Wisconsin's Fickell to return in 2026, AD says
Wisconsin head coach Luke Fickell will return to coach the Badgers in 2026, athletic director Chris McIntosh told ESPN on Thursday.
www.espn.com
November 6, 2025 at 11:33 PM
I’m of the belief that If you can actually pull off patience (even if it’s kinda forced on you by the market), it pays off more often than not. Maybe it will here. But season ticket sales are going to be a CHORE…
Basically what happened in his second year at Bayern, only with much younger personnel. Even more fun to watch than they were last season.
Barca's offside trap is less effective but way funnier than last year.
November 5, 2025 at 9:27 PM
Basically what happened in his second year at Bayern, only with much younger personnel. Even more fun to watch than they were last season.
Playing with Statsbomb/Hudl data for the Friday preview, and ... kind of in love with the Iowa run game? They attack every gap almost an equal amount, and they're at least decent in every gap.
Very predictable re: run vs. pass but completely unpredictable in how/where they run.
Very predictable re: run vs. pass but completely unpredictable in how/where they run.
November 5, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Playing with Statsbomb/Hudl data for the Friday preview, and ... kind of in love with the Iowa run game? They attack every gap almost an equal amount, and they're at least decent in every gap.
Very predictable re: run vs. pass but completely unpredictable in how/where they run.
Very predictable re: run vs. pass but completely unpredictable in how/where they run.