Bill Connelly
@espnbillc.bsky.social
ESPN writer, professional nerd. SP+. Author of three books (Study Hall, 50 Best* and Forward Progress). College football, soccer, tennis. Puma addiction.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1BKvo23DyGppxvRifqFgwkUoflPLQX5wabjUDIV4qUZA/edit?usp=sharing
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1BKvo23DyGppxvRifqFgwkUoflPLQX5wabjUDIV4qUZA/edit?usp=sharing
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Bill Connelly
@espnbillc.bsky.social
· Sep 2
Forward Progress: The Definitive Guide to the Future of College Football
Amazon.com: Forward Progress: The Definitive Guide to the Future of College Football: 9781637278703: Connelly, Bill: Books
www.amazon.com
Hello, friends. It's FORWARD PROGRESS DAY.
"A cinematic celebration of college football’s exploding influence and a rigorous look at how and why the sport may look totally new once again," according to whoever wrote the summary blurb on Amazon.
www.amazon.com/Forward-Prog...
"A cinematic celebration of college football’s exploding influence and a rigorous look at how and why the sport may look totally new once again," according to whoever wrote the summary blurb on Amazon.
www.amazon.com/Forward-Prog...
Watching Face/Off for the first time in 25 years. My favorite part is where Nic Cage yells “DIIIIIIIIEEEEEEEEEE” and John Travolta dies.
January 4, 2026 at 4:34 AM
Watching Face/Off for the first time in 25 years. My favorite part is where Nic Cage yells “DIIIIIIIIEEEEEEEEEE” and John Travolta dies.
Mayo Bowl doing all it can to angle for a top-10 spot on my Best Games of the Season list…
January 3, 2026 at 4:34 AM
Mayo Bowl doing all it can to angle for a top-10 spot on my Best Games of the Season list…
SP+ is updated! We live in Hoosierland, all the semifinalists moved up as you'd expect, and Alabama fell *HOW FAR*???
www.espn.com/college-foot...
www.espn.com/college-foot...
Updated SP+ rankings for all 136 FBS teams
The latest SP+ rankings, plus strength of schedule and résumé SP+, following this week's results.
www.espn.com
January 2, 2026 at 7:19 PM
SP+ is updated! We live in Hoosierland, all the semifinalists moved up as you'd expect, and Alabama fell *HOW FAR*???
www.espn.com/college-foot...
www.espn.com/college-foot...
* Team of destiny vs. team of destiny
* It took a few weeks, but MSU hit fifth gear and stayed there
* ISU's defense was just ... suddenly awesome
* Caden Dowler's injury vs. time
* ISU had a 0.3% chance of getting here (never tell ISU the odds)
FCS TITLE GAME PREVIEW: www.espn.com/college-foot...
* It took a few weeks, but MSU hit fifth gear and stayed there
* ISU's defense was just ... suddenly awesome
* Caden Dowler's injury vs. time
* ISU had a 0.3% chance of getting here (never tell ISU the odds)
FCS TITLE GAME PREVIEW: www.espn.com/college-foot...
FCS national championship preview: Illinois State, Montana State starving for title
Will the Bobcats break through or can the Redbirds cap their amazing run in style?
www.espn.com
January 2, 2026 at 6:49 PM
* Team of destiny vs. team of destiny
* It took a few weeks, but MSU hit fifth gear and stayed there
* ISU's defense was just ... suddenly awesome
* Caden Dowler's injury vs. time
* ISU had a 0.3% chance of getting here (never tell ISU the odds)
FCS TITLE GAME PREVIEW: www.espn.com/college-foot...
* It took a few weeks, but MSU hit fifth gear and stayed there
* ISU's defense was just ... suddenly awesome
* Caden Dowler's injury vs. time
* ISU had a 0.3% chance of getting here (never tell ISU the odds)
FCS TITLE GAME PREVIEW: www.espn.com/college-foot...
SP+ SEMIFINAL PROJECTIONS:
Ole Miss by 2.9 (28.1 to 25.2)
Indiana by 3.0 (26.7 to 23.7)
SP+ TITLE ODDS:
Indiana 40.8% (up 15.2% from last week)
Oregon 26.7% (up 18.1%)
Ole Miss 19.6% (up 12.8%)
Miami 12.9% (up 10.6%)
Ole Miss by 2.9 (28.1 to 25.2)
Indiana by 3.0 (26.7 to 23.7)
SP+ TITLE ODDS:
Indiana 40.8% (up 15.2% from last week)
Oregon 26.7% (up 18.1%)
Ole Miss 19.6% (up 12.8%)
Miami 12.9% (up 10.6%)
January 2, 2026 at 2:58 PM
SP+ SEMIFINAL PROJECTIONS:
Ole Miss by 2.9 (28.1 to 25.2)
Indiana by 3.0 (26.7 to 23.7)
SP+ TITLE ODDS:
Indiana 40.8% (up 15.2% from last week)
Oregon 26.7% (up 18.1%)
Ole Miss 19.6% (up 12.8%)
Miami 12.9% (up 10.6%)
Ole Miss by 2.9 (28.1 to 25.2)
Indiana by 3.0 (26.7 to 23.7)
SP+ TITLE ODDS:
Indiana 40.8% (up 15.2% from last week)
Oregon 26.7% (up 18.1%)
Ole Miss 19.6% (up 12.8%)
Miami 12.9% (up 10.6%)
CFP QUARTERFINAL POSTGAME WIN EXPECTANCY:
Miami > Ohio St 30.0%
Oregon > TT 90.2%
Ole Miss > UGA 98.1%
Indiana > Bama 100.0%
Full list: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Miami > Ohio St 30.0%
Oregon > TT 90.2%
Ole Miss > UGA 98.1%
Indiana > Bama 100.0%
Full list: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
2025 SP+
docs.google.com
January 2, 2026 at 1:53 PM
CFP QUARTERFINAL POSTGAME WIN EXPECTANCY:
Miami > Ohio St 30.0%
Oregon > TT 90.2%
Ole Miss > UGA 98.1%
Indiana > Bama 100.0%
Full list: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Miami > Ohio St 30.0%
Oregon > TT 90.2%
Ole Miss > UGA 98.1%
Indiana > Bama 100.0%
Full list: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
* An amazing Sugar Bowl win probability chart
* Hot damn, Trinidad Chambliss
* Bama went 0-for-3 on the upset checklist
* My angry notes about the Tech offense
* Three first-time semifinalists!
UPDATED QUARTERFINAL TAKEAWAYS: www.espn.com/college-foot...
* Hot damn, Trinidad Chambliss
* Bama went 0-for-3 on the upset checklist
* My angry notes about the Tech offense
* Three first-time semifinalists!
UPDATED QUARTERFINAL TAKEAWAYS: www.espn.com/college-foot...
CFP quarterfinal takeaways: Indiana asserts its dominance in rout of Bama
The Hurricanes, Ducks and Hoosiers are off to the semifinals. We're going inside every CFP game.
www.espn.com
January 2, 2026 at 6:10 AM
* An amazing Sugar Bowl win probability chart
* Hot damn, Trinidad Chambliss
* Bama went 0-for-3 on the upset checklist
* My angry notes about the Tech offense
* Three first-time semifinalists!
UPDATED QUARTERFINAL TAKEAWAYS: www.espn.com/college-foot...
* Hot damn, Trinidad Chambliss
* Bama went 0-for-3 on the upset checklist
* My angry notes about the Tech offense
* Three first-time semifinalists!
UPDATED QUARTERFINAL TAKEAWAYS: www.espn.com/college-foot...
3 outta 4. Either Ole Miss or Miami will play for the national title. Maybe against Indiana.
The possibility of an Indiana-Texas Tech and Ole Miss-Miami semifinal round is giving me so, so, so, so, so, so, so much life right now.
January 2, 2026 at 4:49 AM
3 outta 4. Either Ole Miss or Miami will play for the national title. Maybe against Indiana.
Penn State's best 2024 receiver having a great game in the 2025 quarterfinals, just as we all predicted.
January 2, 2026 at 4:06 AM
Penn State's best 2024 receiver having a great game in the 2025 quarterfinals, just as we all predicted.
Indiana has broken Alabama's will in the sport of football.
Just needed to see what that looked like typed out.
Just needed to see what that looked like typed out.
January 1, 2026 at 11:51 PM
Indiana has broken Alabama's will in the sport of football.
Just needed to see what that looked like typed out.
Just needed to see what that looked like typed out.
Reposted by Bill Connelly
This site has the juice
January 1, 2026 at 10:40 PM
This site has the juice
Reposted by Bill Connelly
this camera cut to Cignetti occurred right after I read Amanda's post
January 1, 2026 at 9:58 PM
this camera cut to Cignetti occurred right after I read Amanda's post
Texas Tech's defense on pace for the greatest defensive performance ever in a 28-point loss.
January 1, 2026 at 7:10 PM
Texas Tech's defense on pace for the greatest defensive performance ever in a 28-point loss.
Oregon's on pace for 94 snaps, Tech's on pace for 26. Not great.
January 1, 2026 at 5:40 PM
Oregon's on pace for 94 snaps, Tech's on pace for 26. Not great.
Reposted by Bill Connelly
* Start fast, finish strong, advance to the semis
* Mesidor and Bain were Suh-like in the first half
* Hello again, CharMar Brown
* Jeremiah Smith rules
* First-round bye = terribly slow start
QUARTERFINAL TAKEAWAYS: www.espn.com/college-foot...
* Mesidor and Bain were Suh-like in the first half
* Hello again, CharMar Brown
* Jeremiah Smith rules
* First-round bye = terribly slow start
QUARTERFINAL TAKEAWAYS: www.espn.com/college-foot...
CFP quarterfinal takeaways: Miami's toughness, defense huge in upset of Ohio State
The Canes got the biggest win of the playoff so far. We're going inside every CFP game.
www.espn.com
January 1, 2026 at 5:20 AM
* Start fast, finish strong, advance to the semis
* Mesidor and Bain were Suh-like in the first half
* Hello again, CharMar Brown
* Jeremiah Smith rules
* First-round bye = terribly slow start
QUARTERFINAL TAKEAWAYS: www.espn.com/college-foot...
* Mesidor and Bain were Suh-like in the first half
* Hello again, CharMar Brown
* Jeremiah Smith rules
* First-round bye = terribly slow start
QUARTERFINAL TAKEAWAYS: www.espn.com/college-foot...
The possibility of an Indiana-Texas Tech and Ole Miss-Miami semifinal round is giving me so, so, so, so, so, so, so much life right now.
January 1, 2026 at 3:56 AM
The possibility of an Indiana-Texas Tech and Ole Miss-Miami semifinal round is giving me so, so, so, so, so, so, so much life right now.
Ryan Day the next one to fail this test.
It blows my mind that almost no coach actually understands to use timeouts BEFORE the two-minute timeout. Elko just let 30 seconds run off the clock!
January 1, 2026 at 3:38 AM
Ryan Day the next one to fail this test.
I kinda miss tempo. We're on pace for ~5 total second-half possessions.
January 1, 2026 at 3:06 AM
I kinda miss tempo. We're on pace for ~5 total second-half possessions.
When the 12-team playoff structure was being discussed, every coach I talked to thought the first-round bye was an ENORMOUS advantage, maybe too big an advantage. It ... has not played out that way in the first 5 QF games.
January 1, 2026 at 2:22 AM
When the 12-team playoff structure was being discussed, every coach I talked to thought the first-round bye was an ENORMOUS advantage, maybe too big an advantage. It ... has not played out that way in the first 5 QF games.
Cooked up some fancy Alaskan scallops to eat with our NYE rotel dip and Trader Joe’s hors d’oeurves because we’re fancy.
January 1, 2026 at 12:17 AM
Cooked up some fancy Alaskan scallops to eat with our NYE rotel dip and Trader Joe’s hors d’oeurves because we’re fancy.
So @mrsbillc.bsky.social just sent me a screenshot, and I am honestly impressed with its utterly comprehensive wrongness. (Is this just me trying to play off the fact that she just discovered my double life? Hahaha, I don't know what you're talking about, shut up.)
December 31, 2025 at 11:02 PM
So @mrsbillc.bsky.social just sent me a screenshot, and I am honestly impressed with its utterly comprehensive wrongness. (Is this just me trying to play off the fact that she just discovered my double life? Hahaha, I don't know what you're talking about, shut up.)
When I am named college football's commissioner, every stadium will have a cereal bowl for players to dive into after touchdowns.
December 31, 2025 at 10:58 PM
When I am named college football's commissioner, every stadium will have a cereal bowl for players to dive into after touchdowns.
Reposted by Bill Connelly
* Can Ohio State remove the guardrails?
* Speed vs. havoc in Miami
* Can we trust the Tech offense?
* Typical David (Bama) vs. Goliath (Indiana) stuff
* Things change in rematches
* Whew, the Dawg D got fierce fast
* The books favor familiarity
CFP QUARTERFINAL PREVIEW: www.espn.com/college-foot...
* Speed vs. havoc in Miami
* Can we trust the Tech offense?
* Typical David (Bama) vs. Goliath (Indiana) stuff
* Things change in rematches
* Whew, the Dawg D got fierce fast
* The books favor familiarity
CFP QUARTERFINAL PREVIEW: www.espn.com/college-foot...
CFP quarterfinals mega-preview: Connelly's keys to all four matchups
We break down Ohio State-Miami, Texas Tech-Oregon, Indiana-Alabama and Georgia-Ole Miss.
www.espn.com
December 30, 2025 at 12:51 PM
* Can Ohio State remove the guardrails?
* Speed vs. havoc in Miami
* Can we trust the Tech offense?
* Typical David (Bama) vs. Goliath (Indiana) stuff
* Things change in rematches
* Whew, the Dawg D got fierce fast
* The books favor familiarity
CFP QUARTERFINAL PREVIEW: www.espn.com/college-foot...
* Speed vs. havoc in Miami
* Can we trust the Tech offense?
* Typical David (Bama) vs. Goliath (Indiana) stuff
* Things change in rematches
* Whew, the Dawg D got fierce fast
* The books favor familiarity
CFP QUARTERFINAL PREVIEW: www.espn.com/college-foot...