Bill Connelly
@espnbillc.bsky.social
ESPN writer, professional nerd. SP+. Author of three books (Study Hall, 50 Best* and Forward Progress). College football, soccer, tennis. Puma addiction.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1BKvo23DyGppxvRifqFgwkUoflPLQX5wabjUDIV4qUZA/edit?usp=sharing
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1BKvo23DyGppxvRifqFgwkUoflPLQX5wabjUDIV4qUZA/edit?usp=sharing
Pinned
Bill Connelly
@espnbillc.bsky.social
· Sep 2
Forward Progress: The Definitive Guide to the Future of College Football
Amazon.com: Forward Progress: The Definitive Guide to the Future of College Football: 9781637278703: Connelly, Bill: Books
www.amazon.com
Hello, friends. It's FORWARD PROGRESS DAY.
"A cinematic celebration of college football’s exploding influence and a rigorous look at how and why the sport may look totally new once again," according to whoever wrote the summary blurb on Amazon.
www.amazon.com/Forward-Prog...
"A cinematic celebration of college football’s exploding influence and a rigorous look at how and why the sport may look totally new once again," according to whoever wrote the summary blurb on Amazon.
www.amazon.com/Forward-Prog...
SEMIFINAL POSTGAME WIN EXPECTANCIES:
Miami > Ole Miss 48.6% (adj. margin: -0.3)
Indiana > Oregon 100.0% (adj. margin: +28.2)
TITLE GAME SP+ PROJECTION:
Indiana 30.4, Miami 19.3
Full PGWE list: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Miami > Ole Miss 48.6% (adj. margin: -0.3)
Indiana > Oregon 100.0% (adj. margin: +28.2)
TITLE GAME SP+ PROJECTION:
Indiana 30.4, Miami 19.3
Full PGWE list: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
2025 SP+
docs.google.com
January 10, 2026 at 2:07 PM
SEMIFINAL POSTGAME WIN EXPECTANCIES:
Miami > Ole Miss 48.6% (adj. margin: -0.3)
Indiana > Oregon 100.0% (adj. margin: +28.2)
TITLE GAME SP+ PROJECTION:
Indiana 30.4, Miami 19.3
Full PGWE list: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Miami > Ole Miss 48.6% (adj. margin: -0.3)
Indiana > Oregon 100.0% (adj. margin: +28.2)
TITLE GAME SP+ PROJECTION:
Indiana 30.4, Miami 19.3
Full PGWE list: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Reposted by Bill Connelly
Indiana bowl wins in 139 years:
Pre-Cignetti: 3
This season: 2
Pre-Cignetti: 3
This season: 2
January 10, 2026 at 5:48 AM
Indiana bowl wins in 139 years:
Pre-Cignetti: 3
This season: 2
Pre-Cignetti: 3
This season: 2
Reposted by Bill Connelly
I started this brand because Indiana lost the Pinstripe Bowl.
Indiana Football is going to the National Championship.
Indiana Football is going to the National Championship.
January 10, 2026 at 3:55 AM
I started this brand because Indiana lost the Pinstripe Bowl.
Indiana Football is going to the National Championship.
Indiana Football is going to the National Championship.
* Indiana just beat Bama and Oregon by 69 combined pts. (Nice.)
* Dan Lanning's going to lose sleep over those first-half TOs.
* Miami's big Beck investment paid off.
* Hell of a run, Rebs.
* Indiana's the best team, Miami's the destiny team.
CFP SEMIFINAL TAKEAWAYS: www.espn.com/college-foot...
* Dan Lanning's going to lose sleep over those first-half TOs.
* Miami's big Beck investment paid off.
* Hell of a run, Rebs.
* Indiana's the best team, Miami's the destiny team.
CFP SEMIFINAL TAKEAWAYS: www.espn.com/college-foot...
CFP semifinal takeaways: Utter dominance has become the norm for Indiana
The Hoosiers (somehow) keep getting better. How can Miami slow them down?
www.espn.com
January 10, 2026 at 5:04 AM
* Indiana just beat Bama and Oregon by 69 combined pts. (Nice.)
* Dan Lanning's going to lose sleep over those first-half TOs.
* Miami's big Beck investment paid off.
* Hell of a run, Rebs.
* Indiana's the best team, Miami's the destiny team.
CFP SEMIFINAL TAKEAWAYS: www.espn.com/college-foot...
* Dan Lanning's going to lose sleep over those first-half TOs.
* Miami's big Beck investment paid off.
* Hell of a run, Rebs.
* Indiana's the best team, Miami's the destiny team.
CFP SEMIFINAL TAKEAWAYS: www.espn.com/college-foot...
They just played part of "Mony Mony" at the IU-Oregon game, and I almost reflexively started chanting "Eat shit, Grizz-lies, Go Cats Go." You did this to me, @bigskyconf.bsky.social.
January 10, 2026 at 3:44 AM
They just played part of "Mony Mony" at the IU-Oregon game, and I almost reflexively started chanting "Eat shit, Grizz-lies, Go Cats Go." You did this to me, @bigskyconf.bsky.social.
I liked Tevin Coleman so much.
Let's remember some Indiana football guys. Antwaan Randle El. James Brewer. Cody Latimer.
January 10, 2026 at 2:36 AM
I liked Tevin Coleman so much.
Can report that the red-to-green ratio in downtown Atlanta right now is about 4-to-1.
January 9, 2026 at 8:25 PM
Can report that the red-to-green ratio in downtown Atlanta right now is about 4-to-1.
Even now, the NCAA refuses to take easy wins. Guy has played 2.5 seasons of college ball.
NEWS: The NCAA has denied Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss a sixth year of eligibility.
January 9, 2026 at 6:50 PM
Even now, the NCAA refuses to take easy wins. Guy has played 2.5 seasons of college ball.
Piecing this year's Top 100 Games list, and ... man ... when A&M-South Carolina isn't even in the top 5 and Georgia-Tennessee and Indiana-Ohio State aren't even in the top 10, you had a HELL of a season...
January 9, 2026 at 2:57 PM
Piecing this year's Top 100 Games list, and ... man ... when A&M-South Carolina isn't even in the top 5 and Georgia-Tennessee and Indiana-Ohio State aren't even in the top 10, you had a HELL of a season...
Pretty sure this is gonna be one of those games where Ole Miss is superior on a per-play basis, and their postgame win expectancy is MUCH higher than anyone's prepared for, and I get yelled at.
January 9, 2026 at 3:30 AM
Pretty sure this is gonna be one of those games where Ole Miss is superior on a per-play basis, and their postgame win expectancy is MUCH higher than anyone's prepared for, and I get yelled at.
Reposted by Bill Connelly
Thanks to @espnbillc.bsky.social for the guest spot here. I honestly can't remember the last time I recorded a football podcast this happy.
Today on Phantom Island for paid subscribers: @stevengodfrey.bsky.social and I compare our experiences at the FCS Championship.
Tomorrow on Phantom Island, also for paid subs: ROSE BOWL REVIEW
You can get access to both of those and much much more when you go to phantomisland.show today!
Tomorrow on Phantom Island, also for paid subs: ROSE BOWL REVIEW
You can get access to both of those and much much more when you go to phantomisland.show today!
The FCS Championship Finishes Its First Nashville Year (PREVIEW)
Podcast Episode · Phantom Island · 01/08/2026 · 9m
podcasts.apple.com
January 8, 2026 at 4:02 PM
Thanks to @espnbillc.bsky.social for the guest spot here. I honestly can't remember the last time I recorded a football podcast this happy.
Reposted by Bill Connelly
* The 20 best players of the CFP thus far
* Bain chasing Chambliss: 🍿🍿🍿
* Who has a bigger game, Fletcher or Lacy?
* Dante Moore *really* needs a good game
* IU's old-man 3rd-down monopoly is almost unbreakable
CFP SEMIFINAL MEGAPREVIEW: www.espn.com/college-foot...
* Bain chasing Chambliss: 🍿🍿🍿
* Who has a bigger game, Fletcher or Lacy?
* Dante Moore *really* needs a good game
* IU's old-man 3rd-down monopoly is almost unbreakable
CFP SEMIFINAL MEGAPREVIEW: www.espn.com/college-foot...
Connelly breaks down Miami-Ole Miss, Oregon-Indiana
Our deep dive into the semifinals dissects the matchups that will determine who moves on to the title game.
www.espn.com
January 7, 2026 at 1:56 PM
* The 20 best players of the CFP thus far
* Bain chasing Chambliss: 🍿🍿🍿
* Who has a bigger game, Fletcher or Lacy?
* Dante Moore *really* needs a good game
* IU's old-man 3rd-down monopoly is almost unbreakable
CFP SEMIFINAL MEGAPREVIEW: www.espn.com/college-foot...
* Bain chasing Chambliss: 🍿🍿🍿
* Who has a bigger game, Fletcher or Lacy?
* Dante Moore *really* needs a good game
* IU's old-man 3rd-down monopoly is almost unbreakable
CFP SEMIFINAL MEGAPREVIEW: www.espn.com/college-foot...
* The 20 best players of the CFP thus far
* Bain chasing Chambliss: 🍿🍿🍿
* Who has a bigger game, Fletcher or Lacy?
* Dante Moore *really* needs a good game
* IU's old-man 3rd-down monopoly is almost unbreakable
CFP SEMIFINAL MEGAPREVIEW: www.espn.com/college-foot...
* Bain chasing Chambliss: 🍿🍿🍿
* Who has a bigger game, Fletcher or Lacy?
* Dante Moore *really* needs a good game
* IU's old-man 3rd-down monopoly is almost unbreakable
CFP SEMIFINAL MEGAPREVIEW: www.espn.com/college-foot...
Connelly breaks down Miami-Ole Miss, Oregon-Indiana
Our deep dive into the semifinals dissects the matchups that will determine who moves on to the title game.
www.espn.com
January 7, 2026 at 1:56 PM
* The 20 best players of the CFP thus far
* Bain chasing Chambliss: 🍿🍿🍿
* Who has a bigger game, Fletcher or Lacy?
* Dante Moore *really* needs a good game
* IU's old-man 3rd-down monopoly is almost unbreakable
CFP SEMIFINAL MEGAPREVIEW: www.espn.com/college-foot...
* Bain chasing Chambliss: 🍿🍿🍿
* Who has a bigger game, Fletcher or Lacy?
* Dante Moore *really* needs a good game
* IU's old-man 3rd-down monopoly is almost unbreakable
CFP SEMIFINAL MEGAPREVIEW: www.espn.com/college-foot...
No.
January 7, 2026 at 3:22 AM
No.
The East Nashville food scene remains wonderful.
This place needs some Innocuous Discourse pronto. Quote this with a take that’s not political or aggressive
January 6, 2026 at 5:09 PM
The East Nashville food scene remains wonderful.
Crashing title hopes … unfulfilled rebounds … full-fledged year zeroes … complete and utter collapses … there are lots of ways to have a disappointing season. I looked at the biggest disappointments of 2025.
www.espn.com/college-foot...
www.espn.com/college-foot...
From No. 1 to nowhere: Ranking the biggest disasters of the 2025 season
From Clemson and Colorado to UCLA and UMass, these teams are happy to put 2025 behind them.
www.espn.com
January 6, 2026 at 3:53 PM
Crashing title hopes … unfulfilled rebounds … full-fledged year zeroes … complete and utter collapses … there are lots of ways to have a disappointing season. I looked at the biggest disappointments of 2025.
www.espn.com/college-foot...
www.espn.com/college-foot...
Reposted by Bill Connelly
Here for the REAL title game…
January 5, 2026 at 11:25 PM
Here for the REAL title game…
Reposted by Bill Connelly
I wrote about Bill Connelly's excellent, and oddly hopeful, college football book FORWARD PROGRESS for @wsj.com's end of the year book wrapup. www.wsj.com/arts-culture...
Who Read What in 2025
We asked 50 luminaries from the worlds of business, politics, books and the arts about what they read—and what they recommend.
www.wsj.com
January 5, 2026 at 9:48 PM
I wrote about Bill Connelly's excellent, and oddly hopeful, college football book FORWARD PROGRESS for @wsj.com's end of the year book wrapup. www.wsj.com/arts-culture...
Boarding a plane to Nashville shortly. Hell yeah.
* Team of destiny vs. team of destiny
* It took a few weeks, but MSU hit fifth gear and stayed there
* ISU's defense was just ... suddenly awesome
* Caden Dowler's injury vs. time
* ISU had a 0.3% chance of getting here (never tell ISU the odds)
FCS TITLE GAME PREVIEW: www.espn.com/college-foot...
* It took a few weeks, but MSU hit fifth gear and stayed there
* ISU's defense was just ... suddenly awesome
* Caden Dowler's injury vs. time
* ISU had a 0.3% chance of getting here (never tell ISU the odds)
FCS TITLE GAME PREVIEW: www.espn.com/college-foot...
FCS national championship preview: Illinois State, Montana State starving for title
Will the Bobcats break through or can the Redbirds cap their amazing run in style?
www.espn.com
January 5, 2026 at 1:16 PM
Boarding a plane to Nashville shortly. Hell yeah.
Reposted by Bill Connelly
Last night the QB Kaleb Blaha broke Joe Burrow's record for for most total yards (rushing/passing) in single season at any level as UW-River Falls pulled a major upset to win the D3 National Championship — he’s also a bartender.
D3 Football: Your starting QB and WR are also working real jobs. Blaha recruited co-worker Rohrer who was playing for the basketball team to join the football team.
January 5, 2026 at 1:14 PM
Last night the QB Kaleb Blaha broke Joe Burrow's record for for most total yards (rushing/passing) in single season at any level as UW-River Falls pulled a major upset to win the D3 National Championship — he’s also a bartender.
Didn’t want to post anything for fear of jinxing, but RIVVVVVVVER FAAAAAAALLLLLS. Wrote about the WIAC all year in my columns and it’s VICTORY LAP TIME.
January 5, 2026 at 4:01 AM
Didn’t want to post anything for fear of jinxing, but RIVVVVVVVER FAAAAAAALLLLLS. Wrote about the WIAC all year in my columns and it’s VICTORY LAP TIME.
Watching Face/Off for the first time in 25 years. My favorite part is where Nic Cage yells “DIIIIIIIIEEEEEEEEEE” and John Travolta dies.
January 4, 2026 at 4:34 AM
Watching Face/Off for the first time in 25 years. My favorite part is where Nic Cage yells “DIIIIIIIIEEEEEEEEEE” and John Travolta dies.
Mayo Bowl doing all it can to angle for a top-10 spot on my Best Games of the Season list…
January 3, 2026 at 4:34 AM
Mayo Bowl doing all it can to angle for a top-10 spot on my Best Games of the Season list…
SP+ is updated! We live in Hoosierland, all the semifinalists moved up as you'd expect, and Alabama fell *HOW FAR*???
www.espn.com/college-foot...
www.espn.com/college-foot...
Updated SP+ rankings for all 136 FBS teams
The latest SP+ rankings, plus strength of schedule and résumé SP+, following this week's results.
www.espn.com
January 2, 2026 at 7:19 PM
SP+ is updated! We live in Hoosierland, all the semifinalists moved up as you'd expect, and Alabama fell *HOW FAR*???
www.espn.com/college-foot...
www.espn.com/college-foot...