Bill Connelly
@espnbillc.bsky.social
ESPN writer, professional nerd. SP+. Author of three books (Study Hall, 50 Best* and Forward Progress). College football, soccer, tennis. Puma addiction.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1BKvo23DyGppxvRifqFgwkUoflPLQX5wabjUDIV4qUZA/edit?usp=sharing
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1BKvo23DyGppxvRifqFgwkUoflPLQX5wabjUDIV4qUZA/edit?usp=sharing
Personal update: We’re a Mail-Order Beans family now.
November 12, 2025 at 11:37 PM
Personal update: We’re a Mail-Order Beans family now.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL SP+ TOP 766, WEEK 12
* Harvard -2 Michigan State
* Harding -1 Oklahoma State
* Buffalo -98 Buffalo State
* Oberlin's still clinging to a slight lead for 766th! Down to the wire!
Almost forgot to post this week! My bad!
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
* Harvard -2 Michigan State
* Harding -1 Oklahoma State
* Buffalo -98 Buffalo State
* Oberlin's still clinging to a slight lead for 766th! Down to the wire!
Almost forgot to post this week! My bad!
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
November 12, 2025 at 5:50 PM
COLLEGE FOOTBALL SP+ TOP 766, WEEK 12
* Harvard -2 Michigan State
* Harding -1 Oklahoma State
* Buffalo -98 Buffalo State
* Oberlin's still clinging to a slight lead for 766th! Down to the wire!
Almost forgot to post this week! My bad!
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
* Harvard -2 Michigan State
* Harding -1 Oklahoma State
* Buffalo -98 Buffalo State
* Oberlin's still clinging to a slight lead for 766th! Down to the wire!
Almost forgot to post this week! My bad!
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Gotta say, if I had a Heisman vote, I'd be going with the guy who simply torched Penn State from the beginning, not the guy who needed the late heroics (and the best catch of the year).
November 10, 2025 at 2:28 PM
Gotta say, if I had a Heisman vote, I'd be going with the guy who simply torched Penn State from the beginning, not the guy who needed the late heroics (and the best catch of the year).
WEEK 12 SP+ PICKS
Bama 25, OU 24 😬
Georgia 27, Texas 23
ND 32, Pitt 24
Duke 30, UVA 28
USC 29, Iowa 24
Utah 35, Baylor 22
Louisville 29, Clemson 23
Rebs 35, Gators 17
BYU 30, TCU 23
Full list: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Bama 25, OU 24 😬
Georgia 27, Texas 23
ND 32, Pitt 24
Duke 30, UVA 28
USC 29, Iowa 24
Utah 35, Baylor 22
Louisville 29, Clemson 23
Rebs 35, Gators 17
BYU 30, TCU 23
Full list: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
November 9, 2025 at 11:39 PM
WEEK 12 SP+ PICKS
Bama 25, OU 24 😬
Georgia 27, Texas 23
ND 32, Pitt 24
Duke 30, UVA 28
USC 29, Iowa 24
Utah 35, Baylor 22
Louisville 29, Clemson 23
Rebs 35, Gators 17
BYU 30, TCU 23
Full list: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Bama 25, OU 24 😬
Georgia 27, Texas 23
ND 32, Pitt 24
Duke 30, UVA 28
USC 29, Iowa 24
Utah 35, Baylor 22
Louisville 29, Clemson 23
Rebs 35, Gators 17
BYU 30, TCU 23
Full list: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Playing with Statsbomb/Hudl data for the Friday preview, and ... kind of in love with the Iowa run game? They attack every gap almost an equal amount, and they're at least decent in every gap.
Very predictable re: run vs. pass but completely unpredictable in how/where they run.
Very predictable re: run vs. pass but completely unpredictable in how/where they run.
November 5, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Playing with Statsbomb/Hudl data for the Friday preview, and ... kind of in love with the Iowa run game? They attack every gap almost an equal amount, and they're at least decent in every gap.
Very predictable re: run vs. pass but completely unpredictable in how/where they run.
Very predictable re: run vs. pass but completely unpredictable in how/where they run.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL SP+ TOP 766, WEEK 11
* Texas Tech -99 East Texas Baptist
* Harvard -10 BC
* Yale -1 Stanford
* The race for No. 766 is coming down to the wire!
* SMOKING HOT SWOSU'S MOVED INTO COLUMN 6 🥹🥹🥹
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
* Texas Tech -99 East Texas Baptist
* Harvard -10 BC
* Yale -1 Stanford
* The race for No. 766 is coming down to the wire!
* SMOKING HOT SWOSU'S MOVED INTO COLUMN 6 🥹🥹🥹
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
November 3, 2025 at 3:14 PM
COLLEGE FOOTBALL SP+ TOP 766, WEEK 11
* Texas Tech -99 East Texas Baptist
* Harvard -10 BC
* Yale -1 Stanford
* The race for No. 766 is coming down to the wire!
* SMOKING HOT SWOSU'S MOVED INTO COLUMN 6 🥹🥹🥹
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
* Texas Tech -99 East Texas Baptist
* Harvard -10 BC
* Yale -1 Stanford
* The race for No. 766 is coming down to the wire!
* SMOKING HOT SWOSU'S MOVED INTO COLUMN 6 🥹🥹🥹
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
WEEK 11 SP+ PICKS
Texas Tech 31, BYU 22
Oregon 28, Iowa 20
A&M 28, Mizzou 27 (no Pribula adjustment)
Bama 30, LSU 21
Memphis 37, Tulane 24
UGA 32, Miss St 25
FSU 29, Clemson 26
Ohio St 40, Purdue 11
ND 39, Navy 21
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Texas Tech 31, BYU 22
Oregon 28, Iowa 20
A&M 28, Mizzou 27 (no Pribula adjustment)
Bama 30, LSU 21
Memphis 37, Tulane 24
UGA 32, Miss St 25
FSU 29, Clemson 26
Ohio St 40, Purdue 11
ND 39, Navy 21
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
November 3, 2025 at 12:28 AM
WEEK 11 SP+ PICKS
Texas Tech 31, BYU 22
Oregon 28, Iowa 20
A&M 28, Mizzou 27 (no Pribula adjustment)
Bama 30, LSU 21
Memphis 37, Tulane 24
UGA 32, Miss St 25
FSU 29, Clemson 26
Ohio St 40, Purdue 11
ND 39, Navy 21
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Texas Tech 31, BYU 22
Oregon 28, Iowa 20
A&M 28, Mizzou 27 (no Pribula adjustment)
Bama 30, LSU 21
Memphis 37, Tulane 24
UGA 32, Miss St 25
FSU 29, Clemson 26
Ohio St 40, Purdue 11
ND 39, Navy 21
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
oh my GOD (and they're WINNING)
November 1, 2025 at 11:26 PM
oh my GOD (and they're WINNING)
Preaching to the choir, but it really is fun to think about pro/rel cleaning things up.
B1G expands again? Split into 2 tiers and eliminate the "contenders don't play each other" thing!
There's a 156-spot diff between top/bottom in the MAC and 318-spot diff in MVFC? Merge and split into tiers!
B1G expands again? Split into 2 tiers and eliminate the "contenders don't play each other" thing!
There's a 156-spot diff between top/bottom in the MAC and 318-spot diff in MVFC? Merge and split into tiers!
October 27, 2025 at 6:18 PM
Preaching to the choir, but it really is fun to think about pro/rel cleaning things up.
B1G expands again? Split into 2 tiers and eliminate the "contenders don't play each other" thing!
There's a 156-spot diff between top/bottom in the MAC and 318-spot diff in MVFC? Merge and split into tiers!
B1G expands again? Split into 2 tiers and eliminate the "contenders don't play each other" thing!
There's a 156-spot diff between top/bottom in the MAC and 318-spot diff in MVFC? Merge and split into tiers!
COLLEGE FOOTBALL SP+ TOP 766, WEEK 10
Indiana -150 Oberlin
Bama -102 Sewanee
Arkansas State -5 Harding
Ferris State -1 EMU
UMass PK North Central
SWOSU: red hot and 3 points from moving into Column 6!!!!
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Indiana -150 Oberlin
Bama -102 Sewanee
Arkansas State -5 Harding
Ferris State -1 EMU
UMass PK North Central
SWOSU: red hot and 3 points from moving into Column 6!!!!
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
October 27, 2025 at 5:49 PM
COLLEGE FOOTBALL SP+ TOP 766, WEEK 10
Indiana -150 Oberlin
Bama -102 Sewanee
Arkansas State -5 Harding
Ferris State -1 EMU
UMass PK North Central
SWOSU: red hot and 3 points from moving into Column 6!!!!
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Indiana -150 Oberlin
Bama -102 Sewanee
Arkansas State -5 Harding
Ferris State -1 EMU
UMass PK North Central
SWOSU: red hot and 3 points from moving into Column 6!!!!
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
WEEK 10 SP+ PICKS
Texas 26, Vandy 24
USC 30, Nebraska 28
Oklahoma 28, Tennessee 27
Georgia 31, Florida 21
Miami 31, SMU 23
Utah 31, Cincy 22
Texas Tech 33, K-State 21
North Texas 36, Navy 30
Air Force 29.9, Army 29.7
LOTS of ranked teams on the road...
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Texas 26, Vandy 24
USC 30, Nebraska 28
Oklahoma 28, Tennessee 27
Georgia 31, Florida 21
Miami 31, SMU 23
Utah 31, Cincy 22
Texas Tech 33, K-State 21
North Texas 36, Navy 30
Air Force 29.9, Army 29.7
LOTS of ranked teams on the road...
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
October 26, 2025 at 10:07 PM
WEEK 10 SP+ PICKS
Texas 26, Vandy 24
USC 30, Nebraska 28
Oklahoma 28, Tennessee 27
Georgia 31, Florida 21
Miami 31, SMU 23
Utah 31, Cincy 22
Texas Tech 33, K-State 21
North Texas 36, Navy 30
Air Force 29.9, Army 29.7
LOTS of ranked teams on the road...
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Texas 26, Vandy 24
USC 30, Nebraska 28
Oklahoma 28, Tennessee 27
Georgia 31, Florida 21
Miami 31, SMU 23
Utah 31, Cincy 22
Texas Tech 33, K-State 21
North Texas 36, Navy 30
Air Force 29.9, Army 29.7
LOTS of ranked teams on the road...
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Yeah, we're gonna need to schedule a CFP play-in game between the AAC champ and NDSU. (Or maybe the ACC champ and NDSU.)
October 26, 2025 at 12:54 AM
Yeah, we're gonna need to schedule a CFP play-in game between the AAC champ and NDSU. (Or maybe the ACC champ and NDSU.)
I'll be honest: This is too much Gramatica.
October 25, 2025 at 5:56 PM
I'll be honest: This is too much Gramatica.
October 23, 2025 at 2:27 PM
We got some damn GOALS today.
October 21, 2025 at 8:56 PM
We got some damn GOALS today.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL SP+ TOP 766, WEEK 9
* Texas A&M -114 Texas College
* Oklahoma State -1 Ferris State 😳
* NDSU: No. 1 in the MAC
* SWOSU's risen from 527th to 391st! Can't stop the Bulldogs!!!
This week's 765 vs 766 matchup was ruined. It's only 764 vs 765 :(
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
* Texas A&M -114 Texas College
* Oklahoma State -1 Ferris State 😳
* NDSU: No. 1 in the MAC
* SWOSU's risen from 527th to 391st! Can't stop the Bulldogs!!!
This week's 765 vs 766 matchup was ruined. It's only 764 vs 765 :(
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
October 20, 2025 at 12:54 PM
COLLEGE FOOTBALL SP+ TOP 766, WEEK 9
* Texas A&M -114 Texas College
* Oklahoma State -1 Ferris State 😳
* NDSU: No. 1 in the MAC
* SWOSU's risen from 527th to 391st! Can't stop the Bulldogs!!!
This week's 765 vs 766 matchup was ruined. It's only 764 vs 765 :(
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
* Texas A&M -114 Texas College
* Oklahoma State -1 Ferris State 😳
* NDSU: No. 1 in the MAC
* SWOSU's risen from 527th to 391st! Can't stop the Bulldogs!!!
This week's 765 vs 766 matchup was ruined. It's only 764 vs 765 :(
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Prepping tomorrow's Top 766, and omg omg omg omg omg
October 20, 2025 at 1:19 AM
Prepping tomorrow's Top 766, and omg omg omg omg omg
WEEK 9 SP+ PICKS
OU 28, Ole Miss 23
A&M 26, LSU 25
Vandy 28.3, Mizzou 28.1
Auburn 28.4, Arkansas 28.1
KU 32, K-State 26
USF 33, Memphis 28
Indiana 40, UCLA 13
Horns 27, #Clanga 20
ASU 25.5, Houston 24.5
Smallest avg SP+ vs spread diff since Wk1.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
OU 28, Ole Miss 23
A&M 26, LSU 25
Vandy 28.3, Mizzou 28.1
Auburn 28.4, Arkansas 28.1
KU 32, K-State 26
USF 33, Memphis 28
Indiana 40, UCLA 13
Horns 27, #Clanga 20
ASU 25.5, Houston 24.5
Smallest avg SP+ vs spread diff since Wk1.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
October 19, 2025 at 10:41 PM
WEEK 9 SP+ PICKS
OU 28, Ole Miss 23
A&M 26, LSU 25
Vandy 28.3, Mizzou 28.1
Auburn 28.4, Arkansas 28.1
KU 32, K-State 26
USF 33, Memphis 28
Indiana 40, UCLA 13
Horns 27, #Clanga 20
ASU 25.5, Houston 24.5
Smallest avg SP+ vs spread diff since Wk1.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
OU 28, Ole Miss 23
A&M 26, LSU 25
Vandy 28.3, Mizzou 28.1
Auburn 28.4, Arkansas 28.1
KU 32, K-State 26
USF 33, Memphis 28
Indiana 40, UCLA 13
Horns 27, #Clanga 20
ASU 25.5, Houston 24.5
Smallest avg SP+ vs spread diff since Wk1.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Texas State plays in only the most entertaining losses imaginable.
October 18, 2025 at 11:26 PM
Texas State plays in only the most entertaining losses imaginable.
DeBoer's Alabama is looking more like DeBoer's Washington every week, which is both great (clutchitude!) and not great (the magic could run out before you want it to). And if the Tide lose to Tennessee this week, the SEC goes from messy to SPECTACULARLY messy.
October 17, 2025 at 1:32 PM
DeBoer's Alabama is looking more like DeBoer's Washington every week, which is both great (clutchitude!) and not great (the magic could run out before you want it to). And if the Tide lose to Tennessee this week, the SEC goes from messy to SPECTACULARLY messy.
Reading an old soccer book from the 1950s ("Soccer Revolution" by Willy Meisl), and ... haha ... can you imagine a sport leaning on an obsolete and fictional definition of amateurism that was kept artificially alive for too long? Can you *imagine* what that might be like??
October 16, 2025 at 10:26 PM
Reading an old soccer book from the 1950s ("Soccer Revolution" by Willy Meisl), and ... haha ... can you imagine a sport leaning on an obsolete and fictional definition of amateurism that was kept artificially alive for too long? Can you *imagine* what that might be like??
First absolute WTF game of the week, and it’s not even Wednesday yet.
October 15, 2025 at 2:58 AM
First absolute WTF game of the week, and it’s not even Wednesday yet.
Friday Preview sneak preview:
October 15, 2025 at 1:00 AM
Friday Preview sneak preview:
The SP+ top 40 if there were no priors involved. All hail our Red Raider and Hoosier overlords (and LSU's top-ranked defense)!
October 13, 2025 at 6:13 PM
The SP+ top 40 if there were no priors involved. All hail our Red Raider and Hoosier overlords (and LSU's top-ranked defense)!
COLLEGE FOOTBALL SP+ TOP 766, WEEK 8
* Lehigh PK BC!
* Slippery Rock -1 UMass!
* The MAC's avg rating is only 2.6 pts higher than the MVFC's
We're *12 DAYS* from No. 765 vs. No. 766. Will I mention that in my Friday preview? I think you know the answer.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
* Lehigh PK BC!
* Slippery Rock -1 UMass!
* The MAC's avg rating is only 2.6 pts higher than the MVFC's
We're *12 DAYS* from No. 765 vs. No. 766. Will I mention that in my Friday preview? I think you know the answer.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
October 13, 2025 at 3:57 PM
COLLEGE FOOTBALL SP+ TOP 766, WEEK 8
* Lehigh PK BC!
* Slippery Rock -1 UMass!
* The MAC's avg rating is only 2.6 pts higher than the MVFC's
We're *12 DAYS* from No. 765 vs. No. 766. Will I mention that in my Friday preview? I think you know the answer.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
* Lehigh PK BC!
* Slippery Rock -1 UMass!
* The MAC's avg rating is only 2.6 pts higher than the MVFC's
We're *12 DAYS* from No. 765 vs. No. 766. Will I mention that in my Friday preview? I think you know the answer.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...