Eric Robinson
@ericrobinson.bsky.social
associate director @ RAND | defense strategy | data science | special operations | former OSD policy | usual caveats
Conventional strength fundamentally cannot deter hybrid threats, because it's the reason RUS/Iran employ hybrid approaches in the first place.
If we're not comfortable eating the cost of these attacks (a big if), the *only* response is also hybrid. Great to see this argument laid out effectively.
If we're not comfortable eating the cost of these attacks (a big if), the *only* response is also hybrid. Great to see this argument laid out effectively.
“If we’re waiting for the ‘real’ war per our past time’s definition, we may not recognize the enemy is fighting war against us now.” A good piece on responding to Russian, Chinese and Iranian hybrid warfare from @maxboot.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Opinion | How to respond to Russia’s hybrid war on the West? Hybrid counterattack.
Russia is suspected in a wide range of indirect attacks in Europe, including cutting undersea cables.
www.washingtonpost.com
January 5, 2025 at 9:23 AM
Conventional strength fundamentally cannot deter hybrid threats, because it's the reason RUS/Iran employ hybrid approaches in the first place.
If we're not comfortable eating the cost of these attacks (a big if), the *only* response is also hybrid. Great to see this argument laid out effectively.
If we're not comfortable eating the cost of these attacks (a big if), the *only* response is also hybrid. Great to see this argument laid out effectively.
Reposted by Eric Robinson
Interesting paper on Russia using the gig economy for sabotage ops.
“Available evidence suggests that Moscow has expanded its recruitment of agents-saboteurs online to go beyond the usual suspects. …Russia’s new model of sabotage appears to more closely resemble the key tenets of the ‘gig economy”
“Available evidence suggests that Moscow has expanded its recruitment of agents-saboteurs online to go beyond the usual suspects. …Russia’s new model of sabotage appears to more closely resemble the key tenets of the ‘gig economy”
Russian Sabotage in the Gig-Economy Era
The West is experiencing the most intense era of sabotage since the Second World War. Russian operations have now reached unprecedented levels. It seems that the main aim of this latest wave is to ...
www.tandfonline.com
January 1, 2025 at 7:03 AM
Interesting paper on Russia using the gig economy for sabotage ops.
“Available evidence suggests that Moscow has expanded its recruitment of agents-saboteurs online to go beyond the usual suspects. …Russia’s new model of sabotage appears to more closely resemble the key tenets of the ‘gig economy”
“Available evidence suggests that Moscow has expanded its recruitment of agents-saboteurs online to go beyond the usual suspects. …Russia’s new model of sabotage appears to more closely resemble the key tenets of the ‘gig economy”
Reposted by Eric Robinson
For folks not following closely, may not realize the key lever the SDF has is its control over these prisons, which Ankara has said it will handle if the SDF is routed—a willingness and capacity which people are skeptical about
Commander of the Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria tells me his forces are stretched thin because of Turkish threats, leaving dozens of camps and prisons holding former ISIS members and their families vulnerable to ISIS attacks. @theworld.org
theworld.org/stories/2024...
theworld.org/stories/2024...
Exclusive: A conversation with the commander of the US-backed Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces - The World from PRX
The World's Shirin Jaafari speaks with Syrian Democratic Forces commander General Mazloum Abdi in an exclusive interview about what's next for the Kurdish group as Syria transitions into post-Assad ru...
theworld.org
December 18, 2024 at 8:18 PM
For folks not following closely, may not realize the key lever the SDF has is its control over these prisons, which Ankara has said it will handle if the SDF is routed—a willingness and capacity which people are skeptical about
Reposted by Eric Robinson
I really hope that Austin Tice is found and released quickly for the sake of his family, ending their 12 year nightmare.
December 8, 2024 at 8:43 AM
I really hope that Austin Tice is found and released quickly for the sake of his family, ending their 12 year nightmare.
External combat power is not a substitute for internal popular will to fight - as true for Russia/Iran in Syria as it was for the US in Afghanistan.
It can keep the dam from breaking for awhile, but a resilient state it does not create.
It can keep the dam from breaking for awhile, but a resilient state it does not create.
Seeing Damascus, Thinking Kabul: Surreal to watch another insurgent army shift from slow, grinding, insurgency seemingly overnight to speed run along highways to the capital and topple a shaky regime once the external patron(s) withdrew support
December 8, 2024 at 8:59 AM
External combat power is not a substitute for internal popular will to fight - as true for Russia/Iran in Syria as it was for the US in Afghanistan.
It can keep the dam from breaking for awhile, but a resilient state it does not create.
It can keep the dam from breaking for awhile, but a resilient state it does not create.
Me, walking into a meeting with literally anyone in the USG: hello
Literally anyone in the USG: saw what you posted on Twitter last night
Me:
Literally anyone in the USG: saw what you posted on Twitter last night
Me:
December 7, 2024 at 8:32 AM
Me, walking into a meeting with literally anyone in the USG: hello
Literally anyone in the USG: saw what you posted on Twitter last night
Me:
Literally anyone in the USG: saw what you posted on Twitter last night
Me:
Questions so far in Syrian rebel offensive, with lots to unpack:
1) Syrian Kurd internal dynamics with Arab SDF elements, and cooperation with non-SDF Arab rebels
2) Impact of Ukraine on Russian munitions, ISR, and general readiness to suppress an offensive
3) Centrality of HTS to Aleppo operations
1) Syrian Kurd internal dynamics with Arab SDF elements, and cooperation with non-SDF Arab rebels
2) Impact of Ukraine on Russian munitions, ISR, and general readiness to suppress an offensive
3) Centrality of HTS to Aleppo operations
November 30, 2024 at 10:35 PM
Questions so far in Syrian rebel offensive, with lots to unpack:
1) Syrian Kurd internal dynamics with Arab SDF elements, and cooperation with non-SDF Arab rebels
2) Impact of Ukraine on Russian munitions, ISR, and general readiness to suppress an offensive
3) Centrality of HTS to Aleppo operations
1) Syrian Kurd internal dynamics with Arab SDF elements, and cooperation with non-SDF Arab rebels
2) Impact of Ukraine on Russian munitions, ISR, and general readiness to suppress an offensive
3) Centrality of HTS to Aleppo operations
Been a minute since I had to pull out the [checks notes] *Syrian* @liveuamap.com
November 30, 2024 at 4:41 AM
Been a minute since I had to pull out the [checks notes] *Syrian* @liveuamap.com
Reposted by Eric Robinson
The increase use of #remotesensing is providing much needed details on the wider impact of war on #foodsecurity and #environment in #Ukraine. New research uses satellite imagery to show mass crop losses from affected and abandoned agricultural land www.science.org/content/arti...
Satellite images reveal massive crop losses in war-torn Ukraine
As Russia’s invasion creeps inward, farmers are abandoning millions of hectares of farmland
www.science.org
November 18, 2024 at 1:03 PM
The increase use of #remotesensing is providing much needed details on the wider impact of war on #foodsecurity and #environment in #Ukraine. New research uses satellite imagery to show mass crop losses from affected and abandoned agricultural land www.science.org/content/arti...
For new folks out there, I’m a researcher and data scientist @rand.org focused on conflict studies, coercion, SOF, and defense strategy. Some work on developing economies, GIS, and labor markets too.
Excited to connect with what already feels like a stronger network here than I ever had on Twitter.
Excited to connect with what already feels like a stronger network here than I ever had on Twitter.
November 13, 2024 at 8:07 AM
For new folks out there, I’m a researcher and data scientist @rand.org focused on conflict studies, coercion, SOF, and defense strategy. Some work on developing economies, GIS, and labor markets too.
Excited to connect with what already feels like a stronger network here than I ever had on Twitter.
Excited to connect with what already feels like a stronger network here than I ever had on Twitter.
Excited to have joined @warontherocks.bsky.social's members-only 'In Brief' newsletter this week to discuss how the U.S. is balancing trying to de-escalate tensions with China, while preparing for war all the same: warontherocks.com/2024/09/in-b...
In Brief: Is the United States Preparing for War with China? - War on the Rocks
A lot happens every day. Alliances shift, leaders change, and conflicts erupt. With In Brief, we’ll help you make sense of it all. Each week, experts will
warontherocks.com
September 6, 2024 at 12:12 PM
Excited to have joined @warontherocks.bsky.social's members-only 'In Brief' newsletter this week to discuss how the U.S. is balancing trying to de-escalate tensions with China, while preparing for war all the same: warontherocks.com/2024/09/in-b...
Reposted by Eric Robinson
We're launching a new Master of National Security Policy degree at Pardee RAND.
The program focuses on the tools of defense policy analysis, taught by RAND policy experts.
Applications are now open for fall 2024. Learn more. ⬇️
www.pardeerand.edu/programs/mas...
The program focuses on the tools of defense policy analysis, taught by RAND policy experts.
Applications are now open for fall 2024. Learn more. ⬇️
www.pardeerand.edu/programs/mas...
Master of National Security Policy
Focused on the tools of defense policy analysis, and taught by RAND policy experts, the Pardee RAND Master of National Security Policy lets you jump-start your career in as little as 9 months.
www.pardeerand.edu
June 10, 2024 at 3:48 PM
We're launching a new Master of National Security Policy degree at Pardee RAND.
The program focuses on the tools of defense policy analysis, taught by RAND policy experts.
Applications are now open for fall 2024. Learn more. ⬇️
www.pardeerand.edu/programs/mas...
The program focuses on the tools of defense policy analysis, taught by RAND policy experts.
Applications are now open for fall 2024. Learn more. ⬇️
www.pardeerand.edu/programs/mas...
New podcast out this week from West Point's Modern War Institute discussing my @rand.org research - I joined Chris Maier, ASD SO/LIC, to discuss SOF's strategic potential to disrupt great powers. irregularwarfare.org/podcasts/str...
April 5, 2024 at 4:57 PM
New podcast out this week from West Point's Modern War Institute discussing my @rand.org research - I joined Chris Maier, ASD SO/LIC, to discuss SOF's strategic potential to disrupt great powers. irregularwarfare.org/podcasts/str...
How can special operations forces disrupt the strategic aims of nation-state competitors short of war?
We present a new concept for 'strategic disruption' by SOF in @rand.org research published this week.
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
We present a new concept for 'strategic disruption' by SOF in @rand.org research published this week.
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
Strategic Disruption by Special Operations Forces
RAND researchers develop a new concept for strategic disruption by special operations forces, exploring how disruptive campaigns can frustrate an adversary’s preferred strategy and enable friendly g...
www.rand.org
December 6, 2023 at 8:09 PM
How can special operations forces disrupt the strategic aims of nation-state competitors short of war?
We present a new concept for 'strategic disruption' by SOF in @rand.org research published this week.
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
We present a new concept for 'strategic disruption' by SOF in @rand.org research published this week.
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
China's Belt and Road Initiative is now 10 years old.
I've largely accepted over the years that BRI delivers competitive advantages to China that the US cannot match.
Our new @rand.org net assessment questions that premise in a few key ways. www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
I've largely accepted over the years that BRI delivers competitive advantages to China that the US cannot match.
Our new @rand.org net assessment questions that premise in a few key ways. www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
Development as a Tool of Economic Statecraft: Assessing U.S. and Chinese Approaches
RAND researchers assessed U.S. and Chinese development assistance and cooperation, identifying strategic asymmetries that may present opportunities for the United States to better compete with China f...
www.rand.org
November 6, 2023 at 4:21 PM
China's Belt and Road Initiative is now 10 years old.
I've largely accepted over the years that BRI delivers competitive advantages to China that the US cannot match.
Our new @rand.org net assessment questions that premise in a few key ways. www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
I've largely accepted over the years that BRI delivers competitive advantages to China that the US cannot match.
Our new @rand.org net assessment questions that premise in a few key ways. www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
Reposted by Eric Robinson
Come work at @randcorporation.bsky.social! We're hiring a China-focused analyst (master's) and researcher (PhD):
China analyst: rand.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/Extern...
China researcher: rand.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/Extern...
I'm not on the search committee, but happy to answer questions!
China analyst: rand.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/Extern...
China researcher: rand.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/Extern...
I'm not on the search committee, but happy to answer questions!
October 11, 2023 at 4:57 PM
Come work at @randcorporation.bsky.social! We're hiring a China-focused analyst (master's) and researcher (PhD):
China analyst: rand.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/Extern...
China researcher: rand.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/Extern...
I'm not on the search committee, but happy to answer questions!
China analyst: rand.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/Extern...
China researcher: rand.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/Extern...
I'm not on the search committee, but happy to answer questions!
"It is September 2020, and you have just taken command of a newly formed HQ in command of all U.S. support to your Ukrainian counterparts."
Some thoughts below on machine learning, Ukraine, and an overall fun report to write, via
@randcorporation.bsky.social www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
Some thoughts below on machine learning, Ukraine, and an overall fun report to write, via
@randcorporation.bsky.social www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
Can Machine Learning Improve Military Decisionmaking?
Machine learning has great potential to enable military decisionmaking at the operational level of war but only when paired with human analysts who possess detailed understanding of the context behind...
www.rand.org
October 2, 2023 at 2:13 PM
"It is September 2020, and you have just taken command of a newly formed HQ in command of all U.S. support to your Ukrainian counterparts."
Some thoughts below on machine learning, Ukraine, and an overall fun report to write, via
@randcorporation.bsky.social www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
Some thoughts below on machine learning, Ukraine, and an overall fun report to write, via
@randcorporation.bsky.social www.rand.org/pubs/researc...