Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social
Strategist, Leader & Author | Retd Army Major General | Senior Fellow in Military Studies @LowyInstitute | @CSIS | Modern & Future war studies | Futura Doctrina substack | #BannedInRussia
Pinned
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social
· Nov 23
The War for Ukraine: Strategy and Adaptation Under Fire
Amazon.com: The War for Ukraine: Strategy and Adaptation Under Fire (Audible Audio Edition): Mick Ryan, Grant Cartwright, Tantor Media: Books
www.amazon.com
The audiobook book for “The War for Ukraine” is now available. It explores Ukrainian, Russian & western #strategy & #adaptation since Feb 2022. www.amazon.com/War-Ukraine-...
There reasons why the U.S. administration might seek to rush along peace talks. But there are major risks with a rushed peace process, and these significantly outweigh any benefits of such a deal. As the saying goes, "if you want it bad, you get it bad."
mickryan.substack.com/p/rushing-to...
mickryan.substack.com/p/rushing-to...
Rushing to Failure with Current Peace Talks? The Big Five, 8 February edition
There many reasons why the U.S. administration might seek to rush along peace talks. But there are a variety of major risks involved in a rushed peace process, and these significantly outweigh any be...
mickryan.substack.com
February 8, 2026 at 5:49 AM
There reasons why the U.S. administration might seek to rush along peace talks. But there are major risks with a rushed peace process, and these significantly outweigh any benefits of such a deal. As the saying goes, "if you want it bad, you get it bad."
mickryan.substack.com/p/rushing-to...
mickryan.substack.com/p/rushing-to...
“As the first strategy of its kind, it will ensure that future arms sales prioritize American interests by using foreign purchases and capital to build American production and capacity.” The new U.S. arms transfer strategy has just been released.
www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
Establishing an America First Arms Transfer Strategy
By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered: Section 1.
www.whitehouse.gov
February 7, 2026 at 1:31 AM
“As the first strategy of its kind, it will ensure that future arms sales prioritize American interests by using foreign purchases and capital to build American production and capacity.” The new U.S. arms transfer strategy has just been released.
www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
A short-term peace agreement in the coming months only gets in the way of Putin’s strategy. Putin is only using them as a tool to buy time to implement his strategy & convince the Trump administration the only direction for the war is negative for Ukraine.
mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraine-pe...
mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraine-pe...
Ukraine Peace Negotiations: Road to Nowhere
The current peace negotiations are a road to nowhere. Putin is only using them to buy time and convince the Trump administration that the sole direction for the war is negative for Ukraine.
mickryan.substack.com
February 6, 2026 at 1:17 AM
A short-term peace agreement in the coming months only gets in the way of Putin’s strategy. Putin is only using them as a tool to buy time to implement his strategy & convince the Trump administration the only direction for the war is negative for Ukraine.
mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraine-pe...
mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraine-pe...
My discussion with Nataliia Lutsenko about the currect direction of the war in Ukraine, on War & Politics 24. www.youtube.com/watch?v=wh6W...
⚡️Putin’s regime is collapsing! A grim outlook for Kremlin. Russians are losing the front
YouTube video by War & Politics 24
www.youtube.com
February 4, 2026 at 8:50 AM
My discussion with Nataliia Lutsenko about the currect direction of the war in Ukraine, on War & Politics 24. www.youtube.com/watch?v=wh6W...
“The familiar old world order is disappearing. But no cohesive new global operating system has emerged to replace it. Nations now exist in an interregnum as they attempt to navigate the roiling and dangerous seas of a post–Pax Americana world.” My latest. www.cfr.org/councilofcou...
The World Reorders: The Complications of a Return to Spheres of Influence | Council of Councils
www.cfr.org
February 3, 2026 at 6:01 AM
“The familiar old world order is disappearing. But no cohesive new global operating system has emerged to replace it. Nations now exist in an interregnum as they attempt to navigate the roiling and dangerous seas of a post–Pax Americana world.” My latest. www.cfr.org/councilofcou...
Another terrific article from @mollymckew.bsky.social
A year ago, two dams were opened as propaganda, spilling vital water resources into a void.
Now, it seems America is also spilling out into a void, evaporating away for absolutely no reason and nothing at all.
But we have a choice: say no to the lie.
I say no.
www.greatpower.us/p/2026-nonse...
Now, it seems America is also spilling out into a void, evaporating away for absolutely no reason and nothing at all.
But we have a choice: say no to the lie.
I say no.
www.greatpower.us/p/2026-nonse...
2026, nonsense orders, and the flood… (part 2)
No to making America small. No to living in the lie. No to thinking freedom is something only some people can have.
www.greatpower.us
February 3, 2026 at 3:36 AM
Another terrific article from @mollymckew.bsky.social
"For PLA planners, the overarching lesson is an uncomfortable one. It is the realization that space support can no longer be treated as a specialized rear-area function, but must be viewed as a frontline contest." Chinese learning about space ops from the #Ukraine War.
jamestown.org/pla-assessme...
jamestown.org/pla-assessme...
PLA Assessments on the Centrality of Space Power in Ukraine - Jamestown
Executive Summary: Editor’s note: This is the final installment in a four-part series on the lessons that the People’s Republic of China has learned from observing Russia’s war in Ukraine. The first t...
jamestown.org
February 1, 2026 at 11:20 PM
"For PLA planners, the overarching lesson is an uncomfortable one. It is the realization that space support can no longer be treated as a specialized rear-area function, but must be viewed as a frontline contest." Chinese learning about space ops from the #Ukraine War.
jamestown.org/pla-assessme...
jamestown.org/pla-assessme...
Reposted by Mick Ryan
⚡️Update: 'Unprovoked terrorist strike' — Russia attacks bus carrying Ukrainian civilian miners, killing at least 12, injuring 16.
The attack marks "the largest single loss for DTEK since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion," CEO Maksym Timchenko said.
The attack marks "the largest single loss for DTEK since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion," CEO Maksym Timchenko said.
'Unprovoked terrorist strike' — Russia attacks bus carrying Ukrainian civilian miners, killing at least 12, injuring 16
Russia launched a mass attack, targeting mines of DTEK, Ukraine's biggest private energy firm, the company said. One of the strikes hit a service bus in the town of Ternivka, which was transporting mi...
kyivindependent.com
February 1, 2026 at 8:29 PM
⚡️Update: 'Unprovoked terrorist strike' — Russia attacks bus carrying Ukrainian civilian miners, killing at least 12, injuring 16.
The attack marks "the largest single loss for DTEK since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion," CEO Maksym Timchenko said.
The attack marks "the largest single loss for DTEK since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion," CEO Maksym Timchenko said.
"There is one message that we should take away from the current round of talks to end the war in Ukraine: Putin does not want the war to end right now." My latest update on war and strategic competition.
mickryan.substack.com/p/putin-cann...
mickryan.substack.com/p/putin-cann...
Putin Cannot Afford a Peace Deal Now. The Big Five, 1 February edition
My regular update on war and great power competition. This week: Ukraine peace talks continue, why Putin doesn't want peace now, the Taiwan-U.S. Joint Command & my Big Five recommended reads.
mickryan.substack.com
February 1, 2026 at 5:42 AM
"There is one message that we should take away from the current round of talks to end the war in Ukraine: Putin does not want the war to end right now." My latest update on war and strategic competition.
mickryan.substack.com/p/putin-cann...
mickryan.substack.com/p/putin-cann...
“What distinguished this iteration was not just the scale or geometry of the activity, but the depth and coherence of the narrative campaign that unfolded alongside it.” @TaiwanMonitor
tsm.schar.gmu.edu/justice-miss...
tsm.schar.gmu.edu/justice-miss...
Justice Mission–2025: The Narrative Battle Inside China’s Latest Taiwan Exercise - Taiwan Security Monitor
Author: Jonathan Walberg When the People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command launched its Justice Mission–2025 exercises around Taiwan on December 29th, the visible indicators were familiar: j...
tsm.schar.gmu.edu
January 30, 2026 at 2:37 AM
“What distinguished this iteration was not just the scale or geometry of the activity, but the depth and coherence of the narrative campaign that unfolded alongside it.” @TaiwanMonitor
tsm.schar.gmu.edu/justice-miss...
tsm.schar.gmu.edu/justice-miss...
“The 2026 National Defense Strategy appears to have been drafted not by serious people but by Pentagon officials eager to curry favor with an imperious president and terrified of getting their talking points wrong.”
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
Whatever This Is, It Is Not Strategy
Defending the nation will take more than sycophancy, slurs, and slop.
www.theatlantic.com
January 29, 2026 at 8:04 PM
“The 2026 National Defense Strategy appears to have been drafted not by serious people but by Pentagon officials eager to curry favor with an imperious president and terrified of getting their talking points wrong.”
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
“If we continue to show disdain for our allies, if we fail to appreciate their contribution to our national security and greater global stability, we may find ourselves fighting alone someday. And trust me, war is never a contest you want to fight alone.”
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
Never Fight Alone
Anyone who would denigrate the service of our NATO allies clearly never spent a day in uniform.
www.theatlantic.com
January 28, 2026 at 10:42 AM
“If we continue to show disdain for our allies, if we fail to appreciate their contribution to our national security and greater global stability, we may find ourselves fighting alone someday. And trust me, war is never a contest you want to fight alone.”
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
If America & Taiwan can build the drone-based Hellscape concept for Taiwan's defence, there is no reason to believe the Chinese have not learned and begun to develop their own oceanic barrier concepts. Oceanic drone barriers may be coming to the Pacific soon. mickryan.substack.com/p/oceanic-ba...
Oceanic Barrier Systems: Barrier Concepts for War and Competition in the Pacific
An examination of how recent massive Chinese fishing vessel concentrations might be a harbinger of future Chinese oceanic barrier systems in the Pacific.
mickryan.substack.com
January 28, 2026 at 5:44 AM
If America & Taiwan can build the drone-based Hellscape concept for Taiwan's defence, there is no reason to believe the Chinese have not learned and begun to develop their own oceanic barrier concepts. Oceanic drone barriers may be coming to the Pacific soon. mickryan.substack.com/p/oceanic-ba...
Reposted by Mick Ryan
Russian drones hit a passenger train in the Kharkiv region and struck Odesa again as Kyiv braces for harsh blackouts in extreme cold. Ukraine answered with air defense interceptions and fresh strikes on Russian systems, while negotiations remain tangled in territorial pressure.
TOP NEWS TODAY 🔝 27 January 2026 — Meanwhile in Ukraine
Post by Meanwhile in Ukraine
buymeacoffee.com
January 28, 2026 at 5:26 AM
Russian drones hit a passenger train in the Kharkiv region and struck Odesa again as Kyiv braces for harsh blackouts in extreme cold. Ukraine answered with air defense interceptions and fresh strikes on Russian systems, while negotiations remain tangled in territorial pressure.
My conversation with @miahhe.bsky.social on how emerging technologies are reshaping war, alliances, and societies at a moment of profound global uncertainty.
ts.transistor.fm/episodes/cha...
ts.transistor.fm/episodes/cha...
Technology and Security | Chaos in the Interregnum: Navigating Australia’s Technology, Strategy and Security Choices with Mick Ryan
In this episode of Technology & Security, Dr Miah Hammond-Errey is joined by Major General Mick Ryan to examine how emerging technologies are reshaping war, alliances, and societies at a moment of ...
ts.transistor.fm
January 27, 2026 at 10:25 PM
My conversation with @miahhe.bsky.social on how emerging technologies are reshaping war, alliances, and societies at a moment of profound global uncertainty.
ts.transistor.fm/episodes/cha...
ts.transistor.fm/episodes/cha...
“The divide between Zhang and Xi no longer centered on debate or planning and instead shifted to execution and direct noncompliance. This problem was clearly visible across the PLA, and it posed a serious threat to Xi’s authority.”
jamestown.org/zhang-youxia...
jamestown.org/zhang-youxia...
Zhang Youxia’s Differences with Xi Jinping Led to His Purge - Jamestown
Executive Summary: At 3:00 p.m. Beijing time on Saturday, January 24, the Ministry of National Defense (MND) announced that Central Military Commission (CMC) Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia (张又侠) and Chief...
jamestown.org
January 26, 2026 at 8:10 PM
“The divide between Zhang and Xi no longer centered on debate or planning and instead shifted to execution and direct noncompliance. This problem was clearly visible across the PLA, and it posed a serious threat to Xi’s authority.”
jamestown.org/zhang-youxia...
jamestown.org/zhang-youxia...
A useful look at different aspects of NATO defence spending from Atlantic Council.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/commentary/t...
www.atlanticcouncil.org/commentary/t...
NATO Defense Spending Tracker
The Transatlantic Security Initiative's NATO defense spending tracker delves into data to analyze current defense spending trends.
www.atlanticcouncil.org
January 26, 2026 at 7:46 PM
A useful look at different aspects of NATO defence spending from Atlantic Council.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/commentary/t...
www.atlanticcouncil.org/commentary/t...
"The current chaos, emblematic of the interregnum between the post World War Two order and a new global order yet to emerge, will probably continue for some time to come."
mickryan.substack.com/p/davos-don-...
mickryan.substack.com/p/davos-don-...
Davos Don Insults Allies, Deterred on Greenland (for now). Ukraine Peace Talks. PLA Purges Persist. The Big Five, 25 January edition
My regular update on war and great power competition. This week: Davos Don, Ukraine peace talks, Fedorov's plan to kill more Russians, PLA purges continue & my Big Five recommended reads.
mickryan.substack.com
January 26, 2026 at 6:11 AM
"The current chaos, emblematic of the interregnum between the post World War Two order and a new global order yet to emerge, will probably continue for some time to come."
mickryan.substack.com/p/davos-don-...
mickryan.substack.com/p/davos-don-...
Happy Australia Day everyone. I am grateful for the many opportunities this amazing country has given me and my family. We are not a perfect country, and have our challenges, but we are always aspiring to get there. It was my privilege to serve it in the Army for so long.
January 25, 2026 at 8:47 PM
Happy Australia Day everyone. I am grateful for the many opportunities this amazing country has given me and my family. We are not a perfect country, and have our challenges, but we are always aspiring to get there. It was my privilege to serve it in the Army for so long.
The past week has seen an array of events that are indicative of the tumultuous, post-Pax Americana era we are living through. The current chaos, emblematic of the interregnum between the post World War Two order and a new global order yet to form, will probably continue for some time to come. 1/5
January 25, 2026 at 5:43 AM
The past week has seen an array of events that are indicative of the tumultuous, post-Pax Americana era we are living through. The current chaos, emblematic of the interregnum between the post World War Two order and a new global order yet to form, will probably continue for some time to come. 1/5
Another terrific episode of the @schoolofwarpod featuring a discussion on America’s defence industrial base. podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/s...
Ep 268: Seth Jones on America’s Defense Industrial Crisis
Podcast Episode · School of War · 23/01/2026 · 49m
podcasts.apple.com
January 25, 2026 at 3:27 AM
Another terrific episode of the @schoolofwarpod featuring a discussion on America’s defence industrial base. podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/s...
“The Chinese view on Taiwan changed significantly in 2025…The fundamental driver of this new assessment is…the perception that President has little interest in defending Taiwan militarily. China sees an opportunity that may not arise again down the road.” www.foreignaffairs.com/china/perfec...
A Perfect Storm for Taiwan in 2026?
How a convergence of factors could tempt Beijing to act.
www.foreignaffairs.com
January 23, 2026 at 8:13 PM
“The Chinese view on Taiwan changed significantly in 2025…The fundamental driver of this new assessment is…the perception that President has little interest in defending Taiwan militarily. China sees an opportunity that may not arise again down the road.” www.foreignaffairs.com/china/perfec...
"It has become clear in the past year that our pleasant post-WW2 existence, and network of relationships, has been winding down. The 1st step in addressing this situation is having the intellectual honesty & moral courage to correctly diagnose the situation."
mickryan.substack.com/p/the-transi...
mickryan.substack.com/p/the-transi...
The Transition from a Defunct Global Order
“You cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration when integration becomes the source of your subordination.” The Canadian PM’s speech at Davos describes the world as it is.
mickryan.substack.com
January 20, 2026 at 9:20 PM
"It has become clear in the past year that our pleasant post-WW2 existence, and network of relationships, has been winding down. The 1st step in addressing this situation is having the intellectual honesty & moral courage to correctly diagnose the situation."
mickryan.substack.com/p/the-transi...
mickryan.substack.com/p/the-transi...
“We are taking the sign out of the window. The old order is not coming back. We should not mourn it. Nostalgia is not a strategy. But from the fracture, we can build something better, stronger, and more just. This is the task of the middle powers.”
globalnews.ca/news/1162087...
globalnews.ca/news/1162087...
Read the full transcript of Carney’s speech to World Economic Forum - National | Globalnews.ca
Prime Minister Mark Carney gave a forceful speech in Davos, Switzerland, on the 'new world order' and how middle powers like Canada can benefit by working together.
globalnews.ca
January 20, 2026 at 7:50 PM
“We are taking the sign out of the window. The old order is not coming back. We should not mourn it. Nostalgia is not a strategy. But from the fracture, we can build something better, stronger, and more just. This is the task of the middle powers.”
globalnews.ca/news/1162087...
globalnews.ca/news/1162087...
“Trump’s domestic political gift is the feral instinct for weakness that characterizes most authoritarians. That instinct is shakier in international affairs, but it shapes the way in which he views the world.”
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
How to Understand Trump’s Obsession With Greenland
Erratic though the president may sound, the Trumpian worldview is comprehensible.
www.theatlantic.com
January 19, 2026 at 7:15 PM
“Trump’s domestic political gift is the feral instinct for weakness that characterizes most authoritarians. That instinct is shakier in international affairs, but it shapes the way in which he views the world.”
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...