Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social
Strategist, Leader & Author | Retd Army Major General | Senior Fellow in Military Studies @LowyInstitute | @CSIS | Modern & Future war studies | Futura Doctrina substack | #BannedInRussia
Pinned
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social
· Nov 23
The War for Ukraine: Strategy and Adaptation Under Fire
Amazon.com: The War for Ukraine: Strategy and Adaptation Under Fire (Audible Audio Edition): Mick Ryan, Grant Cartwright, Tantor Media: Books
www.amazon.com
The audiobook book for “The War for Ukraine” is now available. It explores Ukrainian, Russian & western #strategy & #adaptation since Feb 2022. www.amazon.com/War-Ukraine-...
An initial analysis of the Trump-class battleships from @MarkCancian at @CSIS.
www.csis.org/analysis/gol...
www.csis.org/analysis/gol...
The Golden Fleet’s Battleship Will Never Sail
The recently announced “Trump” class of battleships is cast as the world’s largest and most powerful ships. But these ships will take years to design, cost $9 billion each, and run counter to the Navy...
www.csis.org
December 24, 2025 at 2:47 AM
An initial analysis of the Trump-class battleships from @MarkCancian at @CSIS.
www.csis.org/analysis/gol...
www.csis.org/analysis/gol...
“Russia remains fully committed to achieving peace in Ukraine.” U.S. Special Envoy Witkoff, 22 December 2025.
Ukraine tonight sees Putin’s commitment to achieving peace.
Ukraine tonight sees Putin’s commitment to achieving peace.
December 23, 2025 at 11:00 AM
“Russia remains fully committed to achieving peace in Ukraine.” U.S. Special Envoy Witkoff, 22 December 2025.
Ukraine tonight sees Putin’s commitment to achieving peace.
Ukraine tonight sees Putin’s commitment to achieving peace.
I have written a lot about military innovation and adaptation in #Ukraine. Both Ukraine and Russia have demonstrated #adaptation and the ability to 'learn how to learn' better. This is NOT one of those situations. It is military incompetence and bad #leadership. www.kyivpost.com/post/66754
Russian Soldiers on Horseback Attempted Cavalry Assault on Ukrainian Positions (VIDEO)
Desperately short of vehicles and equipment, Russian soldiers were caught on video resorting to quixotic solutions during their suicide assaults on Ukrainian UAV-protected positions.
www.kyivpost.com
December 22, 2025 at 11:20 PM
I have written a lot about military innovation and adaptation in #Ukraine. Both Ukraine and Russia have demonstrated #adaptation and the ability to 'learn how to learn' better. This is NOT one of those situations. It is military incompetence and bad #leadership. www.kyivpost.com/post/66754
A good argument for careful implementation of AI in military institutions. However, I fear we may have already passed the point where this is possible.
The AI debate inside the Pentagon is often framed as evolution or revolution. Is the military focused on being ready, or just on being early?
The Case for Caution: Why the U.S. Military Shouldn't Organize Around AI… Yet
Editor’s Note: This is the fourth in a series exploring key AI policy choices faced by the Department of Defense and Congress. Please also read the first,
warontherocks.com
December 22, 2025 at 11:20 PM
A good argument for careful implementation of AI in military institutions. However, I fear we may have already passed the point where this is possible.
I have just released my regular update on war and great power competition. This week: Jewish Australians massacred, Putin wants to keep fighting despite his failures on the ground, Japan's resilience, the NDAA and the Pacific, and my Big Five recommended reads.
mickryan.substack.com/p/leadership...
mickryan.substack.com/p/leadership...
Leadership Failure in Oz, Putin Rebuffs Peace, the NDAA & the Pacific, Japan & Nukes: The Big Five, 22 December edition
My long update on war and great power competition. This week: Jewish Australians massacred, Putin wants to keep fighting, Japan's resilience, NDAA and the Pacific, & my Big Five recommended readings.
mickryan.substack.com
December 22, 2025 at 4:58 AM
I have just released my regular update on war and great power competition. This week: Jewish Australians massacred, Putin wants to keep fighting despite his failures on the ground, Japan's resilience, the NDAA and the Pacific, and my Big Five recommended reads.
mickryan.substack.com/p/leadership...
mickryan.substack.com/p/leadership...
My new article explores failure in war, and how military fiction can help build a better understanding of war, military failure and strategic tragedy. It also includes a preview of the sequel to my 2023 novel, White Sun War. mickryan.substack.com/p/failing-to...
Failing to Imagine War and Tragedy in the Pacific
Failure in war, how fiction can help build a better understanding of military failure and strategic tragedy, and a preview of the sequel to my 2023 novel, White Sun War.
mickryan.substack.com
December 19, 2025 at 10:12 PM
My new article explores failure in war, and how military fiction can help build a better understanding of war, military failure and strategic tragedy. It also includes a preview of the sequel to my 2023 novel, White Sun War. mickryan.substack.com/p/failing-to...
"The key responsibility of governments in Australia now, beyond ensuring the safety of all citizens, is challenging the existing ideas or conceptzia about our domestic & national notions of resilience, cohesion, prosperity & security." My latest at Lowy.
www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...
www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...
The element of surprise: Bondi and the Australian "conceptzia"
Surprise remains a central feature of Australia's security environment.
www.lowyinstitute.org
December 18, 2025 at 11:21 PM
"The key responsibility of governments in Australia now, beyond ensuring the safety of all citizens, is challenging the existing ideas or conceptzia about our domestic & national notions of resilience, cohesion, prosperity & security." My latest at Lowy.
www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...
www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...
The latest edition of Parameters has just been released. This is one of the best military journals out there, and a must read for military and NatSec professionals.
press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/
press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/
The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters | Parameters and Associated Collections | US Army War College
<p><i>Parameters</i> is a refereed journal of ideas and issues. It provides a forum for mature thought on the art and science of land warfare, joint and combined matters, national and international se...
press.armywarcollege.edu
December 18, 2025 at 11:08 PM
The latest edition of Parameters has just been released. This is one of the best military journals out there, and a must read for military and NatSec professionals.
press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/
press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/
"Ukraine’s allies on Wednesday agreed to transfer more than $45 billion’ worth of critical weapons and military material during 2026, setting a new record for a single commitment of support by the international community for defense against the Russian invasion."
www.kyivpost.com/post/66517
www.kyivpost.com/post/66517
Ramstein Conference Delivers Record Foreign Military Support Commitment to Ukraine
Ukraine’s allies just agreed to donate over $45 billion worth of new arms and military material to Kyiv, at the 32nd Ramstein group meeting. But, under Trump’s control, the US contributed a goose egg.
www.kyivpost.com
December 18, 2025 at 10:58 PM
"Ukraine’s allies on Wednesday agreed to transfer more than $45 billion’ worth of critical weapons and military material during 2026, setting a new record for a single commitment of support by the international community for defense against the Russian invasion."
www.kyivpost.com/post/66517
www.kyivpost.com/post/66517
My new article is now available. It explores failure in war, and how military fiction can help build a better understanding of military failure and strategic tragedy. It also includes a preview of the sequel to my 2023 novel, White Sun War.
mickryan.substack.com/p/failing-to...
mickryan.substack.com/p/failing-to...
Failing to Imagine War and Tragedy in the Pacific
Failure in war, how fiction can help build a better understanding of military failure and strategic tragedy, and a preview of the sequel to my 2023 novel, White Sun War.
mickryan.substack.com
December 18, 2025 at 9:56 AM
My new article is now available. It explores failure in war, and how military fiction can help build a better understanding of military failure and strategic tragedy. It also includes a preview of the sequel to my 2023 novel, White Sun War.
mickryan.substack.com/p/failing-to...
mickryan.substack.com/p/failing-to...
“The Winner is Not the One Who Invented the Technology, But the One Who Scales and Applies It in the Long Run”. A good piece from @militarnyi about developments in UGVs and land operations.
militarnyi.com/en/articles/...
militarnyi.com/en/articles/...
“The Winner is Not the One Who Invented the Technology, But the One Who Scales and Applies It in the Long Run” - Interview with the Commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade's Strike UGV Company - Militarn...
The battlefield is increasingly saturated with ground robotic systems, and over the past year they have actively taken over the logistics of the front line. But these are not all their possible niches...
militarnyi.com
December 15, 2025 at 10:32 PM
“The Winner is Not the One Who Invented the Technology, But the One Who Scales and Applies It in the Long Run”. A good piece from @militarnyi about developments in UGVs and land operations.
militarnyi.com/en/articles/...
militarnyi.com/en/articles/...
In the midst of the darkest of times, a hero stands up for what is right. The brutal, deliberate attack against Jewish Australians celebrating Hanukkah at #Bondi Beach today is an abomination. For those murdered while celebrating the 1st day of the Festival of Lights, may their memory be a blessing.
This guy disarming the terrorist at Bondi Beach, Australia, can only be described as hero.
December 14, 2025 at 10:15 AM
In the midst of the darkest of times, a hero stands up for what is right. The brutal, deliberate attack against Jewish Australians celebrating Hanukkah at #Bondi Beach today is an abomination. For those murdered while celebrating the 1st day of the Festival of Lights, may their memory be a blessing.
I have just published my regular update on war and strategic competition. This week: Putin's Kupiansk lie, Ukrainian forces advance, the Chinese carrier strike group off Japan, as well as my Big Five recommended readings.
mickryan.substack.com/p/my-zelensk...
mickryan.substack.com/p/my-zelensk...
My Zelenskyy Goes to Kupiansk. Putin Huddles in Moscow. Chinese Carrier Off Japan. The Big Five, 14 December edition.
My regular update on war and strategic competition. This week: Putin's Kupiansk lie, Ukrainian forces advance, the Chinese carrier strike group off Japan, as well as my Big Five recommended readings.
mickryan.substack.com
December 14, 2025 at 3:53 AM
I have just published my regular update on war and strategic competition. This week: Putin's Kupiansk lie, Ukrainian forces advance, the Chinese carrier strike group off Japan, as well as my Big Five recommended readings.
mickryan.substack.com/p/my-zelensk...
mickryan.substack.com/p/my-zelensk...
"I believe that the Ukrainian people will answer this question. Whether in the form of elections or a referendum, the Ukrainian people must have a say."
kyivindependent.com/elections-or...
kyivindependent.com/elections-or...
'Elections or referendum' — Zelensky affirms Ukrainians will decide territorial concessions
"The Russians want the whole of Donbas — we don't accept that," President Volodymyr Zelensky said. "I believe that the Ukrainian people will answer this question," he added.
kyivindependent.com
December 11, 2025 at 9:17 PM
"I believe that the Ukrainian people will answer this question. Whether in the form of elections or a referendum, the Ukrainian people must have a say."
kyivindependent.com/elections-or...
kyivindependent.com/elections-or...
My annual reading list, containing a range of resources (not just books) from the classics of antiquity through to speculation about future conflict, is now available at Futura Doctrina. Happy reading!
mickryan.substack.com/p/the-futura...
mickryan.substack.com/p/the-futura...
The Futura Doctrina 2025 Reading List
My annual reading list that contains a range of resources (not just books) from the classics of antiquity through to speculation about future conflict.
mickryan.substack.com
December 11, 2025 at 4:59 AM
My annual reading list, containing a range of resources (not just books) from the classics of antiquity through to speculation about future conflict, is now available at Futura Doctrina. Happy reading!
mickryan.substack.com/p/the-futura...
mickryan.substack.com/p/the-futura...
“Under our laws, under international law — and under moral law — we have no right to give anything away…That is what we are fighting for.” @ZelenskyyUa
wapo.st/4iFSKpY
wapo.st/4iFSKpY
Zelensky rules out ceding land to Russia, refusing to bow to Putin or Trump
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his country would not give up territory under pressure from Moscow or to satisfy Washington in its push to resolve peace talks.
wapo.st
December 9, 2025 at 10:16 AM
“Under our laws, under international law — and under moral law — we have no right to give anything away…That is what we are fighting for.” @ZelenskyyUa
wapo.st/4iFSKpY
wapo.st/4iFSKpY
“In dealing with Putin, in other words, Trump keeps thinking he’s entering a Manhattan boardroom, when in fact he’s walking into a Leningrad courtyard—and blinking first.” www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
Putin Lives by a Code Trump Doesn’t Understand
Where Trump sees a deal, Putin sees submission.
www.theatlantic.com
December 6, 2025 at 10:00 PM
“In dealing with Putin, in other words, Trump keeps thinking he’s entering a Manhattan boardroom, when in fact he’s walking into a Leningrad courtyard—and blinking first.” www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
The Trump administration's new National Security Strategy (NSS) is out. There is disappointment & despondency in Europe. But, in the Pacific, there is reason for cautious optimism and hope. Unless you are China of course.
My latest assessment:
mickryan.substack.com/p/shell-be-r...
My latest assessment:
mickryan.substack.com/p/shell-be-r...
She’ll Be Right, Mate: The New U.S. National Security Strategy and the Pacific
An examination of the new Trump administration National Security Strategy and the implications for security and prosperity in the Pacific.
mickryan.substack.com
December 6, 2025 at 5:40 AM
The Trump administration's new National Security Strategy (NSS) is out. There is disappointment & despondency in Europe. But, in the Pacific, there is reason for cautious optimism and hope. Unless you are China of course.
My latest assessment:
mickryan.substack.com/p/shell-be-r...
My latest assessment:
mickryan.substack.com/p/shell-be-r...
Reposted by Mick Ryan
⚡️At least 3 injured in Russian missile, drone strikes on Kyiv Oblast.
Three people have been injured in a Russian missile and drone attack on Kyiv Oblast overnight on Dec. 6, local officials reported.
Three people have been injured in a Russian missile and drone attack on Kyiv Oblast overnight on Dec. 6, local officials reported.
At least 3 injured in Russian missile, drone strikes on Kyiv Oblast
Three people have been injured in a Russian missile and drone attack on Kyiv Oblast overnight on Dec. 3, local officials reported.
kyivindependent.com
December 6, 2025 at 2:37 AM
⚡️At least 3 injured in Russian missile, drone strikes on Kyiv Oblast.
Three people have been injured in a Russian missile and drone attack on Kyiv Oblast overnight on Dec. 6, local officials reported.
Three people have been injured in a Russian missile and drone attack on Kyiv Oblast overnight on Dec. 6, local officials reported.
An investigation of Ukraine's seven key 2025 strategic endeavours and how successful #Ukraine has been in their execution.
mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraines-2...
mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraines-2...
Ukraine's 2025 Strategic Endeavours
A comprehensive assessment of the seven key strategic endeavours that made up Ukraine's national war fighting effort in 2025, and whether the combination of these has changed Putin's calculus.
mickryan.substack.com
December 4, 2025 at 5:52 AM
An investigation of Ukraine's seven key 2025 strategic endeavours and how successful #Ukraine has been in their execution.
mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraines-2...
mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraines-2...
Reposted by Mick Ryan
NEW: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged that Putin’s theory of victory and negotiating tactics assume that Russia can outlast the West and Ukraine in a war of attrition. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Dec. 3, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar120325
More🧵⬇(1/7)
More🧵⬇(1/7)
December 4, 2025 at 5:02 AM
NEW: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged that Putin’s theory of victory and negotiating tactics assume that Russia can outlast the West and Ukraine in a war of attrition. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Dec. 3, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar120325
More🧵⬇(1/7)
More🧵⬇(1/7)
Back in January, I explored the key strategic endeavours that Ukraine would be investing in throughout the course of 2025. In this piece, I examine these endeavours and assess how successful #Ukraine has been in their execution:
mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraines-2...
mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraines-2...
Ukraine's 2025 Strategic Endeavours
A comprehensive assessment of the seven key strategic endeavours that made up Ukraine's national war fighting effort in 2025, and whether the combination of these has changed Putin's calculus.
mickryan.substack.com
December 3, 2025 at 9:47 AM
Back in January, I explored the key strategic endeavours that Ukraine would be investing in throughout the course of 2025. In this piece, I examine these endeavours and assess how successful #Ukraine has been in their execution:
mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraines-2...
mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraines-2...
“Russian President Vladimir Putin has underlined his true intentions by issuing a presidential decree calling for an escalation in efforts to eradicate all traces of Ukrainian identity from the approximately 20% of Ukraine currently under Kremlin control.”
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrain...
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrain...
While Trump talks peace, Putin is escalating efforts to erase Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued a decree this week calling for an escalation in efforts to erase all traces of Ukrainian identity from the approximately 20 percent of Ukraine currently und...
www.atlanticcouncil.org
December 2, 2025 at 9:13 PM
“Russian President Vladimir Putin has underlined his true intentions by issuing a presidential decree calling for an escalation in efforts to eradicate all traces of Ukrainian identity from the approximately 20% of Ukraine currently under Kremlin control.”
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrain...
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrain...
My latest interview with @Nataly_Lutsenko on the War & Politics 24 channel. We discuss the #Ukraine peace process, Russia’s continued ground and aerial attacks, and foreign support for Ukraine. youtu.be/GkVbEaZ0WGA?...
⚡️Moscow reacted to the US talks! Putin is scared. Kremlin’s army is collapsing
YouTube video by War & Politics 24
youtu.be
December 1, 2025 at 9:03 PM
My latest interview with @Nataly_Lutsenko on the War & Politics 24 channel. We discuss the #Ukraine peace process, Russia’s continued ground and aerial attacks, and foreign support for Ukraine. youtu.be/GkVbEaZ0WGA?...
“The initial peace plan, with its heavy emphasis on Russian demands, is evidence of Mr. Putin’s skill in manipulation. He’ll need it—for on the current trajectory, Russian troops will continue to proceed at a glacial place.” My piece in @wsj.com
www.wsj.com/opinion/vlad...
www.wsj.com/opinion/vlad...
Opinion | Vladimir Putin Won’t Win on the Battlefield
Since January, the Russian military’s territorial gains total nearly 1,900 square miles—or 0.8% of Ukraine, writes Mick Ryan.
www.wsj.com
November 30, 2025 at 8:13 PM
“The initial peace plan, with its heavy emphasis on Russian demands, is evidence of Mr. Putin’s skill in manipulation. He’ll need it—for on the current trajectory, Russian troops will continue to proceed at a glacial place.” My piece in @wsj.com
www.wsj.com/opinion/vlad...
www.wsj.com/opinion/vlad...