Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social
Strategist, Leader & Author | Retd Army Major General | Senior Fellow in Military Studies @LowyInstitute | @CSIS | Modern & Future war studies | Futura Doctrina substack | #BannedInRussia
Pinned
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social
· Nov 23
The War for Ukraine: Strategy and Adaptation Under Fire
Amazon.com: The War for Ukraine: Strategy and Adaptation Under Fire (Audible Audio Edition): Mick Ryan, Grant Cartwright, Tantor Media: Books
www.amazon.com
The audiobook book for “The War for Ukraine” is now available. It explores Ukrainian, Russian & western #strategy & #adaptation since Feb 2022. www.amazon.com/War-Ukraine-...
Today on #RemembranceDay, I am thinking about the amazing soldiers I had the privilege to serve with over 35 years in the Army. I am also thinking about the previous generations who served, suffered and sacrificed so much for our freedoms. Lest we forget.
November 11, 2025 at 1:05 AM
Today on #RemembranceDay, I am thinking about the amazing soldiers I had the privilege to serve with over 35 years in the Army. I am also thinking about the previous generations who served, suffered and sacrificed so much for our freedoms. Lest we forget.
“The Fourth Plenum of the Twentieth Central Committee marked more than a routine leadership meeting…The result is a model of strategic endurance—a self-contained system able to sustain rivalry with the United States.” jamestown.org/program/a-fi...
A Five-Year Plan for Managed Confrontation
Executive Summary: Economic planning for systemic rivalry: The Fourth Plenum ratified the culmination of a decade-long project to fuse national planning, security strategy, and technological control u...
jamestown.org
November 9, 2025 at 8:42 PM
“The Fourth Plenum of the Twentieth Central Committee marked more than a routine leadership meeting…The result is a model of strategic endurance—a self-contained system able to sustain rivalry with the United States.” jamestown.org/program/a-fi...
This is good news, and great U.S. -Australia collaboration.
www.defenceconnect.com.au/joint-capabi...
www.defenceconnect.com.au/joint-capabi...
Aussie research sees breakthrough as Raytheon, Northrop prepare to deliver first HACM
The US Air Force has picked Raytheon Missiles & Defense and Northrop Grumman to build the Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile (HACM), developed alongside the Southern Cross Integrated Flight Research...
www.defenceconnect.com.au
November 9, 2025 at 8:33 PM
This is good news, and great U.S. -Australia collaboration.
www.defenceconnect.com.au/joint-capabi...
www.defenceconnect.com.au/joint-capabi...
I have just published my weekly update on modern war and strategic competition. This week: the Battle of Pokrovsk, Russian casualties, deep-strike campaigns, China's 3rd aircraft carrier commissions, as well as my recommended war and national security reads.
mickryan.substack.com/p/russian-ca...
mickryan.substack.com/p/russian-ca...
Russian Casualties Rise, Ukraine Strikes Russian Power Facilities and the Battle of Pokrovsk Continues - The Big Five, 9 November edition
My regular update on global conflict. This week: the Battle of Pokrovsk, Russian casualties and China's 3rd aircraft carrier commissions, as well as my recommended war and national security reads
mickryan.substack.com
November 8, 2025 at 11:49 PM
I have just published my weekly update on modern war and strategic competition. This week: the Battle of Pokrovsk, Russian casualties, deep-strike campaigns, China's 3rd aircraft carrier commissions, as well as my recommended war and national security reads.
mickryan.substack.com/p/russian-ca...
mickryan.substack.com/p/russian-ca...
Autonomous Systems: Learning the Right Lessons from Ukraine for Down Under. My testimony about the lessons of Ukraine and the future of autonomous systems in war for an Australian parliamentary committee hearing this week.
mickryan.substack.com/p/autonomous...
mickryan.substack.com/p/autonomous...
Autonomous Systems: Learning the Right Lessons from Ukraine for Down Under
My testimony about the lessons of Ukraine and the future of autonomous systems in war for an Australian parliamentary committee hearing this week.
mickryan.substack.com
November 7, 2025 at 5:21 AM
Autonomous Systems: Learning the Right Lessons from Ukraine for Down Under. My testimony about the lessons of Ukraine and the future of autonomous systems in war for an Australian parliamentary committee hearing this week.
mickryan.substack.com/p/autonomous...
mickryan.substack.com/p/autonomous...
“Avoiding extinction by a race of machines is not much of a strategy. Weapons don’t make wars, and better weapons don’t win better wars. Politics does, because only politics can truly change the game.” An important issue explored in @milstrategymag
www.militarystrategymagazine.com/article/lase...
www.militarystrategymagazine.com/article/lase...
Lasers and the Limits of Strategic Change - Military Strategy Magazine
Lasers may dazzle and impress us, but they will not win wars. This essay shows how faith in “game-changing” technology represents the Red Queen’s race—running faster, only to stay in place—and why tru...
www.militarystrategymagazine.com
November 6, 2025 at 11:03 PM
“Avoiding extinction by a race of machines is not much of a strategy. Weapons don’t make wars, and better weapons don’t win better wars. Politics does, because only politics can truly change the game.” An important issue explored in @milstrategymag
www.militarystrategymagazine.com/article/lase...
www.militarystrategymagazine.com/article/lase...
Reposted by Mick Ryan
I cannot possibly recommend @warinthefuture.bsky.social' s Substack enough. This is another brilliant installment. It calls for better leadership and societal resilience. Democracies must overcome strategic complacency towards authoritarian threats (Russia/China) & rapid tech change.
Confronting Complacency
Confrontation with authoritarians is not new for democracies. But how do we shake our societies out of strategic lethargy and complacency about the nature and scale of the threat?
open.substack.com
November 5, 2025 at 2:33 PM
I cannot possibly recommend @warinthefuture.bsky.social' s Substack enough. This is another brilliant installment. It calls for better leadership and societal resilience. Democracies must overcome strategic complacency towards authoritarian threats (Russia/China) & rapid tech change.
An excellent episode of Shield of the Republic.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/s...
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/s...
America Can't Go It Alone
Podcast Episode · Shield of the Republic · 11/02/2025 · 59m
podcasts.apple.com
November 5, 2025 at 11:12 PM
An excellent episode of Shield of the Republic.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/s...
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/s...
Confrontation with authoritarians is not new for democracies. But how do we shake our societies out of strategic lethargy and complacency about the nature and scale of the threat? My latest at Futura Doctrina.
mickryan.substack.com/p/confrontin...
mickryan.substack.com/p/confrontin...
Confronting Complacency
Confrontation with authoritarians is not new for democracies. But how do we shake our societies out of strategic lethargy and complacency about the nature and scale of the threat?
mickryan.substack.com
November 5, 2025 at 4:03 AM
Confrontation with authoritarians is not new for democracies. But how do we shake our societies out of strategic lethargy and complacency about the nature and scale of the threat? My latest at Futura Doctrina.
mickryan.substack.com/p/confrontin...
mickryan.substack.com/p/confrontin...
Training, & training systems that are responsive to battlefield learning & adaptation, is crucial to building effective & resilient military personnel and teams. I have just published a short article with the Lowy Institute on this vital subject.
www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...
www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...
Military training lessons from Ukraine
Ukraine has transformed its military training regime in the midst of war. There is much to learn from its experiences.
www.lowyinstitute.org
October 29, 2025 at 12:02 PM
Training, & training systems that are responsive to battlefield learning & adaptation, is crucial to building effective & resilient military personnel and teams. I have just published a short article with the Lowy Institute on this vital subject.
www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...
www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...
“Come spring and summer 2026, Russia will almost certainly try to repeat and one-up its initial success in Dobropillia — and by then, will likely have more tactical tricks up its sleeve.” An assessment of #Ukraine frontline operations from @francisjfarrell
kyivindependent.com/analysis-cle...
kyivindependent.com/analysis-cle...
Analysis: Ukraine learns hard lessons from Russia's evolving tactics after clearing Dobropillia 'breakthrough'
After two and a half months of intense fighting, the red rabbit-ear-looking shape on the battlefield map of Donetsk Oblast is gone for good.
With the liberation of two more villages, Sukhetske and Ku...
kyivindependent.com
October 28, 2025 at 1:58 PM
“Come spring and summer 2026, Russia will almost certainly try to repeat and one-up its initial success in Dobropillia — and by then, will likely have more tactical tricks up its sleeve.” An assessment of #Ukraine frontline operations from @francisjfarrell
kyivindependent.com/analysis-cle...
kyivindependent.com/analysis-cle...
My regular update on modern war and strategic competition is now available. This week: Trump-Putin summit delayed, new U.S. sanctions on Russia, Chinese purges as well as my recommended war and national security reads.
mickryan.substack.com/p/summit-no-...
mickryan.substack.com/p/summit-no-...
Summit No More, New U.S. Sanctions and Ukrainian Gripens: The Big Five for 26 October
My regular update on global conflict. This week: Trump-Putin summit delayed, new U.S. sanctions on Russia, Chinese purges as well as my recommended war and national security reads
mickryan.substack.com
October 25, 2025 at 4:51 PM
My regular update on modern war and strategic competition is now available. This week: Trump-Putin summit delayed, new U.S. sanctions on Russia, Chinese purges as well as my recommended war and national security reads.
mickryan.substack.com/p/summit-no-...
mickryan.substack.com/p/summit-no-...
“”Why America Slept.” That might be the title of a future book examining the Trump administration’s shift of national security focus away from a Russian threat against Europe and toward a noxious but relatively impotent network of drug gangs in Venezuela.“ www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Opinion | Trump is ignoring the real threat matrix
A puzzling pivot to the Caribbean increasingly leaves Europe to answer Putin’s aggression on its own.
www.washingtonpost.com
October 25, 2025 at 6:09 AM
“”Why America Slept.” That might be the title of a future book examining the Trump administration’s shift of national security focus away from a Russian threat against Europe and toward a noxious but relatively impotent network of drug gangs in Venezuela.“ www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
“For local residents, Russia’s human safari has made sudden death from above an everyday fact of life. During the first nine months of 2025, more than a hundred people were killed and over one thousand were wounded in drone attacks.”
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrain...
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrain...
Russia’s ‘human safari’ in southern Ukraine is a warning to the world
Russia's escalating campaign of drone attacks on the civilian population of Ukraine's Kherson region highlights the destructive power of modern drone technologies, writes Oleksandr Tolokonnikov.
www.atlanticcouncil.org
October 24, 2025 at 4:49 AM
“For local residents, Russia’s human safari has made sudden death from above an everyday fact of life. During the first nine months of 2025, more than a hundred people were killed and over one thousand were wounded in drone attacks.”
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrain...
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrain...
In my new Ukraine Dispatch, I examine the challenges of ground based air defence in #Ukraine. Based on interviews in country, I examine defending strategic targets as well as defending against aerial threats along the frontline and tactical rear areas. mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraine-di...
Ukraine Dispatch: Ground-Based Air Defence
Another report based on my latest visit to Ukraine, which features information from my interviews with Ukrainian personnel about the challenges of defending Ukrainian skies from Russian aerial threats
mickryan.substack.com
October 23, 2025 at 7:13 AM
In my new Ukraine Dispatch, I examine the challenges of ground based air defence in #Ukraine. Based on interviews in country, I examine defending strategic targets as well as defending against aerial threats along the frontline and tactical rear areas. mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraine-di...
Reposted by Mick Ryan
US Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed: “We are going to either announce after the close this afternoon or first thing tomorrow morning, a substantial pickup in Russia sanctions.”
More pressure is finally coming?
More pressure is finally coming?
The US Treasury has imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, including 34 of their subsidiaries. Shortly after, US President Trump posted the list of sanctioned Russian oil companies on his social platform.
October 23, 2025 at 6:55 AM
US Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed: “We are going to either announce after the close this afternoon or first thing tomorrow morning, a substantial pickup in Russia sanctions.”
More pressure is finally coming?
More pressure is finally coming?
Reposted by Mick Ryan
A series of explosions hit Ryazan overnight, with drones targeting the local oil refinery and Dyagilevo airbase. A massive blaze broke out near the catalytic cracking or hydrocracking unit, part of a refinery producing 12–13M tons annually. Some sources say "Peklo" missile-drones were used.
October 23, 2025 at 6:56 AM
A series of explosions hit Ryazan overnight, with drones targeting the local oil refinery and Dyagilevo airbase. A massive blaze broke out near the catalytic cracking or hydrocracking unit, part of a refinery producing 12–13M tons annually. Some sources say "Peklo" missile-drones were used.
Reposted by Mick Ryan
What started as a limited action could end as a war no one planned.
Why U.S. Strikes Against Drug Boats Matter
On Oct. 14, President Donald Trump announced on social media that the United States had once more attacked an alleged drug smuggling small boat in
warontherocks.com
October 23, 2025 at 7:00 AM
What started as a limited action could end as a war no one planned.
In my latest Ukraine Dispatch, I examine ground based air defence. Based on interviews conducted in country, this explores defending strategic targets as well as defending against aerial threats along the frontline. You can read my full report here. mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraine-di...
Ukraine Dispatch: Ground-Based Air Defence
Another report based on my latest visit to Ukraine, which features information from my interviews with Ukrainian personnel about the challenges of defending Ukrainian skies from Russian aerial threats
mickryan.substack.com
October 22, 2025 at 4:22 PM
In my latest Ukraine Dispatch, I examine ground based air defence. Based on interviews conducted in country, this explores defending strategic targets as well as defending against aerial threats along the frontline. You can read my full report here. mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraine-di...
Reposted by Mick Ryan
A massive Russian attack pummeled Ukraine’s energy and port infrastructure on Oct. 22.
Emergency power outages were implemented in most regions of the country throughout the day as energy workers battled to repair damaged infrastructure, in some cases while still under bombardment.
Emergency power outages were implemented in most regions of the country throughout the day as energy workers battled to repair damaged infrastructure, in some cases while still under bombardment.
Russian assault on Ukraine's power grid leaves over 100,000 without power in north, east
A massive Russian attack pummeled Ukraine’s energy and port infrastructure on Oct. 22 as Moscow shows no sign of slowing down its plan to freeze out Ukrainians as winter draws closer.
Emergency power...
kyivindependent.com
October 22, 2025 at 4:11 PM
A massive Russian attack pummeled Ukraine’s energy and port infrastructure on Oct. 22.
Emergency power outages were implemented in most regions of the country throughout the day as energy workers battled to repair damaged infrastructure, in some cases while still under bombardment.
Emergency power outages were implemented in most regions of the country throughout the day as energy workers battled to repair damaged infrastructure, in some cases while still under bombardment.
Reposted by Mick Ryan
Plain terrorism, nothing else. Footage has emerged of the Russian drone strike hitting a private kindergarten in Kharkiv, Ukraine. Children were inside when the strike landed.
October 22, 2025 at 4:13 PM
Plain terrorism, nothing else. Footage has emerged of the Russian drone strike hitting a private kindergarten in Kharkiv, Ukraine. Children were inside when the strike landed.
In my new #Ukraine Dispatch, I cover my recent visit to the new Directorate of Assault Units, my discussion with its founding commander, as well as its learning and adaptation under fire.
mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraine-di...
mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraine-di...
Ukraine Dispatch 5: Ukraine’s New Directorate of Assault Units – Adaptation Under Fire
My visit to the new Ukrainian Directorate of Assault Units and discussion with its commander about its concept of operations, learning and adaptation.
mickryan.substack.com
October 20, 2025 at 5:26 PM
In my new #Ukraine Dispatch, I cover my recent visit to the new Directorate of Assault Units, my discussion with its founding commander, as well as its learning and adaptation under fire.
mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraine-di...
mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraine-di...
Reposted by Mick Ryan
What reason is there to think that the Budapest summit will be any more successful than the one in Alaska?
There is no indication that Putin is willing to make any new concessions, yet Trump just can’t say no to his Russian counterpart. wapo.st/49eip6r
There is no indication that Putin is willing to make any new concessions, yet Trump just can’t say no to his Russian counterpart. wapo.st/49eip6r
Opinion | Trump keeps getting played by Putin. Will Budapest be different?
A Russia-Ukraine ceasefire might be possible if only Trump would apply more pressure on Putin.
wapo.st
October 20, 2025 at 12:05 PM
What reason is there to think that the Budapest summit will be any more successful than the one in Alaska?
There is no indication that Putin is willing to make any new concessions, yet Trump just can’t say no to his Russian counterpart. wapo.st/49eip6r
There is no indication that Putin is willing to make any new concessions, yet Trump just can’t say no to his Russian counterpart. wapo.st/49eip6r
Ukraine has been at the frontline of learning about modern war in the past 3 years. But more crucially, they have learned much in their dealings with Trump about America’s new global security posture. Perhaps this is the most important lesson for us to learn. www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...
Last week was a disaster for Ukraine – and America’s allies
The mood in Kyiv is fatalistic, despondent about Western illusions yet resolved to learn and fight.
www.lowyinstitute.org
October 20, 2025 at 4:38 AM
Ukraine has been at the frontline of learning about modern war in the past 3 years. But more crucially, they have learned much in their dealings with Trump about America’s new global security posture. Perhaps this is the most important lesson for us to learn. www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...