Eric Robinson
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ericrobinson.bsky.social
Eric Robinson
@ericrobinson.bsky.social
1.5K followers 1.5K following 39 posts
associate director @ RAND | defense strategy | data science | special operations | former OSD policy | usual caveats
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ericrobinson.bsky.social
SOF’s main contributions are therefore to create time, space, and opportunities for other elements of national power – diplomatic, informational, military, and economic – to achieve friendly strategic objectives, and not necessarily to deliver strategic effects themselves.
December 6, 2023 at 8:11 PM
ericrobinson.bsky.social
We find that strategic disruption campaigns primarily seek to disrupt an adversary’s preferred approach, forcing them onto suboptimal strategies or activities that create openings for friendly strategic gains.
December 6, 2023 at 8:11 PM
ericrobinson.bsky.social
We explore 50+ historical cases of disruptive campaigns by SOF and similar forces across five pillars of capability for strategic disruption – resist, support, influence, understand, and target.
1. The resist pillar involves efforts to enable a resistance or insurgency to coerce, dis-rupt, or overthrow a government or occupying power or deter an occupation. 2.Thesupport pillar involves efforts to build the capacity of foreign security forces and enable their own efforts to defend against internal or external threats to their security. 3.Theinfluence pillar involves efforts to inform and shape the attitudes, behavior, and decisions of foreign actors in support of U.S. interests. 4.Theunderstand pillar involves efforts to extract strategically relevant information from politically sensitive, contested, or denied environments. 5.Thetarget pillar involves efforts to seize, destroy, disrupt, or secure key personnel, equipment, or infrastructure in politically sensitive, contested, or denied environ-ments.
December 6, 2023 at 8:10 PM
ericrobinson.bsky.social
Finally - the biggest threat to U.S. competitiveness in the next decade of BRI may come from the systemic risks BRI has introduced in developing countries - placing greater demand on U.S. resources to help countries reduce this fragility.
Text drawn from the report that says "As an extreme example, Chinese lending terms can include unusual confidentiality clauses and provisions to make the Chinese debt effectively senior to other bilateral debt. Such terms often look to omit these loans from the usual restructuring that bilateral donors undertake when a recipient country faces repayment problems.130 In countries where it is active, China does not usually liaise with other bilateral providers of aid or development finance.131 These risks could increase broader demands on international organizations (such as the International Monetary Fund) to aid in bailouts of developing countries or prevent external actors from judging risk properly in making their own decisions. Without complete and accurate information on potential recipients’ existing obligations, the United States’ ability to scale up its own development financing efforts in a responsible manner could be affected."
November 6, 2023 at 4:31 PM
ericrobinson.bsky.social
Finally - the biggest threat to U.S. competitiveness in the next decade of BRI may come from the systemic risks BRI has introduced in developing countries - placing greater demand on U.S. resources to help countries reduce this fragility.
Text drawn from the report discussing Chinese lending and confidentiality practices.
November 6, 2023 at 4:28 PM
ericrobinson.bsky.social
Third, while much of the public consciousness about BRI focuses on roads, trains, bridges, and ports - the data suggest that China's real focus has been on energy. This is where the U.S. remains radically out-spent and out-competed.
A figure drawn from the report comparing U.S. and Chinese investments in different types of infrastructure, including energy, hard infrastructure, financial support, and agriculture.
November 6, 2023 at 4:26 PM
ericrobinson.bsky.social
Second, while China's approach may be better suited towards accruing influence in the short term, China is beginning to acknowledge that its approach isn't sustainable over the long run.
Text drawn from the report that says "These criticisms demonstrate a more general problem that researchers have noted: The short-term appeal of China’s approach to developing countries does not necessarily generate longer-term positive perceptions of China, at least not more so than the United States’ more diffuse assistance. One study of public opinion polling in Africa, for example, found that U.S. development programs are just as closely correlated with friendly perceptions among local populations compared with China’s more expansive efforts, in part because public attitudes are less driven by individual project–level spending than they are by broader perceptions of donor nation’s goals in supporting a given country.115 Already, Chinese political and financial leaders appear to be reevaluating the political and financial returns on their" Text drawn from the report that says "investments.116 For example, some Chinese banking executives—looking to limit their accountability in the event of a default—have threatened to stop financing projects likely to be unprofitable absent clear direction that such loans serve some broader policy objective for China.117 Senior Chinese government officials also have begun to push for greater risk controls in China’s lending practices and to reduce lending perceived to be reckless.118 With the majority of China’s overseas loans held by countries in financial distress, Chinese banks have also been forced to begin accepting losses when creditors fail to repay loans on time—rather than simply extending the maturity of such loans as they have done in the past—in some cases even working with such international institutions as the Paris Club to negotiate debt relief.119 Overall, this suggests that U.S. concerns over China’s transactional influence gained through major infrastructure lending..."
November 6, 2023 at 4:25 PM
ericrobinson.bsky.social
This bias leads to an over-reliance on U.S. aid agencies in response, and an undercounting of the competitive benefits accrued to the U.S. from our own private sector, non-profit, diplomatic, and military engagement in these same countries.
A figure drawn from the report comparing U.S. and Chinese foreign direct investment figures.
November 6, 2023 at 4:24 PM
ericrobinson.bsky.social
First, while we largely conceive of BRI as a development challenge, China treats BRI as so much more - a jobs program, an outlet for excess capital, a resource pipeline, and a venue for cooperation with the global south.

To them, it's a comprehensive economic statecraft program.
Text from the RAND report that reads: "Chinese financing and loans to the developing world are more than just a tool for cooperation with the Global South; they also help fuel economic activity and growth at home that undergirds China’s political system. Chinese leaders face significant economic challenges arising from overcapacity within Chinese labor and manufacturing sectors. As a result, Chinese officials have historically embraced development efforts abroad to create outlets for excess Chinese financing and industrial products."
November 6, 2023 at 4:23 PM