Ed Z
@edzarenski.bsky.social
Construction Economic Analyst/Author, 30yr construction cost estimating/system developer, past runner, dogdad, granddad. PSU. Teach astronomy. Speaker. Construction Analytics Blog http://edzarenski.com
Pinned
Ed Z
@edzarenski.bsky.social
· Nov 27
The Manufacturing Spending Taper
My construction spending forecast for 2025 Nonresidential Bldgs is down 1.5%. But this decline is driven by projects ending in Manufacturing. In the last 3 yrs, there were $230bil Mnfg new starts, …
edzarenski.com
The Manufacturing Spending Taper
Real Mnfg starts over last 3yrs is just over $600bil, whereas normal starts without any influx of government investment would be about $300bil/3yrs. Now some are ending.
edzarenski.com/2024/11/21/t...
Real Mnfg starts over last 3yrs is just over $600bil, whereas normal starts without any influx of government investment would be about $300bil/3yrs. Now some are ending.
edzarenski.com/2024/11/21/t...
Pretty remarkable that construction inputs inflation for the last 36 months is only 3%, but look at the 24 months prior (Sep'22/Sep'20) and that 24mo period was 37%.
November 26, 2025 at 3:02 PM
Pretty remarkable that construction inputs inflation for the last 36 months is only 3%, but look at the 24 months prior (Sep'22/Sep'20) and that 24mo period was 37%.
We will wait a little longer before we see any meaningful changes in construction materials costs. September data reported here. Also remember, PPI does not track imports, only domestic producers. INPUTS thru Sept up ~2% from avg2024.
November 26, 2025 at 1:28 PM
We will wait a little longer before we see any meaningful changes in construction materials costs. September data reported here. Also remember, PPI does not track imports, only domestic producers. INPUTS thru Sept up ~2% from avg2024.
Reposted by Ed Z
Art. I of the Constitution gives Congress the power to make rules and regulations for the armed forces — including codes of discipline and strictures against following illegal orders. You can’t punish members of Congress for articulating those rules. Also protected by Speech and Debate Clause.
November 25, 2025 at 9:53 AM
Art. I of the Constitution gives Congress the power to make rules and regulations for the armed forces — including codes of discipline and strictures against following illegal orders. You can’t punish members of Congress for articulating those rules. Also protected by Speech and Debate Clause.
Construction Briefs NOV 2025
Environment for construction jobs looking difficult. Volume of work (spending minus inflation) available is declining all through 2026. Biggest declines by far, Manufacturing and SF Rsdn.
edzarenski.com/2025/11/25/c...
Environment for construction jobs looking difficult. Volume of work (spending minus inflation) available is declining all through 2026. Biggest declines by far, Manufacturing and SF Rsdn.
edzarenski.com/2025/11/25/c...
Construction Briefs NOV 2025
After some delayed data released recently, we now have August Construction Spending and Sept Jobs. In the past 12mo, Rsdn construction jobs fell 46k (-1.4%). Nonres Bldgs jobs increased 59k (+1.6%)…
edzarenski.com
November 25, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Construction Briefs NOV 2025
Environment for construction jobs looking difficult. Volume of work (spending minus inflation) available is declining all through 2026. Biggest declines by far, Manufacturing and SF Rsdn.
edzarenski.com/2025/11/25/c...
Environment for construction jobs looking difficult. Volume of work (spending minus inflation) available is declining all through 2026. Biggest declines by far, Manufacturing and SF Rsdn.
edzarenski.com/2025/11/25/c...
Reposted by Ed Z
“.. Durable goods prices in particular are behaving very differently in 2025 year-to-date than in 2023 or 2024.”
#Liberated 🇺🇸
- @ernietedeschi.bsky.social
#Liberated 🇺🇸
- @ernietedeschi.bsky.social
November 23, 2025 at 9:01 PM
“.. Durable goods prices in particular are behaving very differently in 2025 year-to-date than in 2023 or 2024.”
#Liberated 🇺🇸
- @ernietedeschi.bsky.social
#Liberated 🇺🇸
- @ernietedeschi.bsky.social
In the past 12mo,
Rsdn construction jobs fell 46k (-1.4%).
Nonres Bldgs jobs increased 59k (+1.6%) and
Nonbldg jobs increased 24k (+2.1%).
Rsdn spending is down 5% (-$39bil)
Nonres Bldgs is down 3.4% (-$25bil)
Nonbldg is up 3.1% (+$15bil)
Expect total spending in 2025 down 2.1%, jobs UP 1%
Rsdn construction jobs fell 46k (-1.4%).
Nonres Bldgs jobs increased 59k (+1.6%) and
Nonbldg jobs increased 24k (+2.1%).
Rsdn spending is down 5% (-$39bil)
Nonres Bldgs is down 3.4% (-$25bil)
Nonbldg is up 3.1% (+$15bil)
Expect total spending in 2025 down 2.1%, jobs UP 1%
November 21, 2025 at 4:32 PM
In the past 12mo,
Rsdn construction jobs fell 46k (-1.4%).
Nonres Bldgs jobs increased 59k (+1.6%) and
Nonbldg jobs increased 24k (+2.1%).
Rsdn spending is down 5% (-$39bil)
Nonres Bldgs is down 3.4% (-$25bil)
Nonbldg is up 3.1% (+$15bil)
Expect total spending in 2025 down 2.1%, jobs UP 1%
Rsdn construction jobs fell 46k (-1.4%).
Nonres Bldgs jobs increased 59k (+1.6%) and
Nonbldg jobs increased 24k (+2.1%).
Rsdn spending is down 5% (-$39bil)
Nonres Bldgs is down 3.4% (-$25bil)
Nonbldg is up 3.1% (+$15bil)
Expect total spending in 2025 down 2.1%, jobs UP 1%
Construction Spending Forecast
Total spending varies less than 1% from current through 2026
Jobs YTD up 16k. Only times job growth that slow was 2020 or recessions.
2011 through 2024, even with losses in 2020, avg jobs growth was 200k/yr.
Don't expect job openings (see JOLTS) in near future.
Total spending varies less than 1% from current through 2026
Jobs YTD up 16k. Only times job growth that slow was 2020 or recessions.
2011 through 2024, even with losses in 2020, avg jobs growth was 200k/yr.
Don't expect job openings (see JOLTS) in near future.
November 21, 2025 at 1:05 PM
Construction Spending Forecast
Total spending varies less than 1% from current through 2026
Jobs YTD up 16k. Only times job growth that slow was 2020 or recessions.
2011 through 2024, even with losses in 2020, avg jobs growth was 200k/yr.
Don't expect job openings (see JOLTS) in near future.
Total spending varies less than 1% from current through 2026
Jobs YTD up 16k. Only times job growth that slow was 2020 or recessions.
2011 through 2024, even with losses in 2020, avg jobs growth was 200k/yr.
Don't expect job openings (see JOLTS) in near future.
Reposted by Ed Z
Over 700,000 TPS recipients lose legal status by the end of 2025, including 550,000 who are legally working. TPS recipients contribute over $36B in annual GDP. Withdrawing their work authorization could add to labor shortages in construction, cleaning, and hospitality, especially in FL, TX, NY
550,000 Workers Lose Status by End of 2025: Potential Impact by State and Industry — Penn Wharton Budget Model
Over 700,000 Temporary Protected Status (TPS) recipients lose legal status by the end of 2025, including 550,000 who are legally working. We estimate that TPS recipients contribute over $36 billion in...
budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu
November 19, 2025 at 8:50 PM
Over 700,000 TPS recipients lose legal status by the end of 2025, including 550,000 who are legally working. TPS recipients contribute over $36B in annual GDP. Withdrawing their work authorization could add to labor shortages in construction, cleaning, and hospitality, especially in FL, TX, NY
Reposted by Ed Z
Fox News credulously reports that "the Saudis now say their investment pledge in the US will be increased to $1 trillion." THE ENTIRE GDP OF SAUDI ARABIA IS $1.1 TRILLION, so this is total nonsense.
November 18, 2025 at 7:21 PM
Fox News credulously reports that "the Saudis now say their investment pledge in the US will be increased to $1 trillion." THE ENTIRE GDP OF SAUDI ARABIA IS $1.1 TRILLION, so this is total nonsense.
a broad overview of productivity in construction
November 17, 2025 at 10:32 PM
a broad overview of productivity in construction
Reposted by Ed Z
It's Liberation Day for the homebuilder supply chain -- they're being liberated of their profits and gross margins:
November 17, 2025 at 7:12 PM
It's Liberation Day for the homebuilder supply chain -- they're being liberated of their profits and gross margins:
Reposted by Ed Z
Extremely clear pattern emerging in the ojonc.org map with federal law enforcement targeting heavily Latino areas in their terror campaign.
November 17, 2025 at 6:42 PM
Extremely clear pattern emerging in the ojonc.org map with federal law enforcement targeting heavily Latino areas in their terror campaign.
Reposted by Ed Z
Robin Snyder unmasks the insanity of the GOP lines:
November 15, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Robin Snyder unmasks the insanity of the GOP lines:
Environment for construction jobs looking difficult. Volume of work (spending minus inflation) available is declining all through 2026. Biggest declines by far, Manufacturing and SF Rsdn.
November 14, 2025 at 12:37 PM
Environment for construction jobs looking difficult. Volume of work (spending minus inflation) available is declining all through 2026. Biggest declines by far, Manufacturing and SF Rsdn.
Construction Inflation 2025 Update Nov.
a forecast, filling in the gaps, given the available data is as of July or August.
edzarenski.com/2025/11/13/c...
a forecast, filling in the gaps, given the available data is as of July or August.
edzarenski.com/2025/11/13/c...
November 13, 2025 at 2:59 PM
Construction Inflation 2025 Update Nov.
a forecast, filling in the gaps, given the available data is as of July or August.
edzarenski.com/2025/11/13/c...
a forecast, filling in the gaps, given the available data is as of July or August.
edzarenski.com/2025/11/13/c...
"Drivers need to stop depending on traffic lights. They need to suck it up and go with their gut feelings."
BREAKING FOX NEWS: Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy goes on the record: "Pilots need to stop depending on air traffic controllers. They need to suck it up and go with their gut feelings."
November 9, 2025 at 1:46 PM
"Drivers need to stop depending on traffic lights. They need to suck it up and go with their gut feelings."
Where we should now stand re construction spending
if we look at forecast for Aug and Sep data
Nonres Bldgs down ytd -2,2%
Nonbldg up +2.2%
Residential down -4.5%
Total all spending thru Sep should now be down -2.2%
Take out about 3.5% inflation and real spending is that much lower.
if we look at forecast for Aug and Sep data
Nonres Bldgs down ytd -2,2%
Nonbldg up +2.2%
Residential down -4.5%
Total all spending thru Sep should now be down -2.2%
Take out about 3.5% inflation and real spending is that much lower.
November 5, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Where we should now stand re construction spending
if we look at forecast for Aug and Sep data
Nonres Bldgs down ytd -2,2%
Nonbldg up +2.2%
Residential down -4.5%
Total all spending thru Sep should now be down -2.2%
Take out about 3.5% inflation and real spending is that much lower.
if we look at forecast for Aug and Sep data
Nonres Bldgs down ytd -2,2%
Nonbldg up +2.2%
Residential down -4.5%
Total all spending thru Sep should now be down -2.2%
Take out about 3.5% inflation and real spending is that much lower.
this
An estimated 15.7 million workers use SNAP. It’s a lifeline for those in low-wage jobs.
Meanwhile, CEOs are paid 280x as much as the typical worker.
Don’t be angry at workers for using food stamps.
Be angry at the corporations paying them so little that they need them.
Meanwhile, CEOs are paid 280x as much as the typical worker.
Don’t be angry at workers for using food stamps.
Be angry at the corporations paying them so little that they need them.
October 31, 2025 at 1:55 PM
this
When (construction) spending is up a little it looks like progress. But we always fight inflation. If spending is up by 3% but inflation is 4%, then real business volume declined by 1%. If spending is down 5%, with 3% to 4% inflation, business volume is down 8% to 9%.
edzarenski.com/2025/09/04/c...
edzarenski.com/2025/09/04/c...
Construction Briefs Sept 2025
The headline construction data is the year-to-date (ytd) comparison. Through July data, ytd2025 is -2.2% compared to ytd2024. But where is it headed. Watch for this. Last year spending was increasi…
edzarenski.com
October 29, 2025 at 8:48 PM
When (construction) spending is up a little it looks like progress. But we always fight inflation. If spending is up by 3% but inflation is 4%, then real business volume declined by 1%. If spending is down 5%, with 3% to 4% inflation, business volume is down 8% to 9%.
edzarenski.com/2025/09/04/c...
edzarenski.com/2025/09/04/c...
Reposted by Ed Z
October 28, 2025 at 7:02 PM
Reposted by Ed Z
Today for some reason I'm reminded of the Carlton Tavern in Kilburn. The only building in its street to survive the Blitz, it was illegally demolished in 2015 by a developer without planning permission. Westminster City Council ordered it to be rebuilt, exactly as it was, and it reopened in 2021.
October 22, 2025 at 9:35 AM
Today for some reason I'm reminded of the Carlton Tavern in Kilburn. The only building in its street to survive the Blitz, it was illegally demolished in 2015 by a developer without planning permission. Westminster City Council ordered it to be rebuilt, exactly as it was, and it reopened in 2021.
Reposted by Ed Z
Breaking: Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes has just filed a lawsuit to try to force Mike Johnson to swear in Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva.
October 21, 2025 at 11:40 PM
Breaking: Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes has just filed a lawsuit to try to force Mike Johnson to swear in Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva.
Is there no historical buildings commission through which all building renovations plans must be approved before destroying history.
October 21, 2025 at 11:47 AM
Is there no historical buildings commission through which all building renovations plans must be approved before destroying history.
Reposted by Ed Z
Here are photos of this afternoon's "No Kings" protest in Providence at the State House.
Read more on the demonstrations in Rhode Island and Southeastern Massachusetts:
https://www.wpri.com/news/politics/where-are-no-kings-protests-happening-in-ri-se-mass/
Read more on the demonstrations in Rhode Island and Southeastern Massachusetts:
https://www.wpri.com/news/politics/where-are-no-kings-protests-happening-in-ri-se-mass/
October 18, 2025 at 7:59 PM
Here are photos of this afternoon's "No Kings" protest in Providence at the State House.
Read more on the demonstrations in Rhode Island and Southeastern Massachusetts:
https://www.wpri.com/news/politics/where-are-no-kings-protests-happening-in-ri-se-mass/
Read more on the demonstrations in Rhode Island and Southeastern Massachusetts:
https://www.wpri.com/news/politics/where-are-no-kings-protests-happening-in-ri-se-mass/
Reposted by Ed Z
MSNBC captured the crowd from the Boston "No Kings" rally:
October 18, 2025 at 6:49 PM
MSNBC captured the crowd from the Boston "No Kings" rally: