Ed Z
@edzarenski.bsky.social
Construction Economic Analyst/Author, 30yr construction cost estimating/system developer, past runner, dogdad, granddad. PSU. Teach astronomy. Speaker. Construction Analytics Blog http://edzarenski.com
Sweet potatoes. Dad's recipe.
Parboil potatoes. Peel off rind.
Slice about 1/2" thick.
Fry on med in butter.
Drizzle maple syrup onto while frying.
Best when a little blackening occurs.
Parboil potatoes. Peel off rind.
Slice about 1/2" thick.
Fry on med in butter.
Drizzle maple syrup onto while frying.
Best when a little blackening occurs.
November 27, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Sweet potatoes. Dad's recipe.
Parboil potatoes. Peel off rind.
Slice about 1/2" thick.
Fry on med in butter.
Drizzle maple syrup onto while frying.
Best when a little blackening occurs.
Parboil potatoes. Peel off rind.
Slice about 1/2" thick.
Fry on med in butter.
Drizzle maple syrup onto while frying.
Best when a little blackening occurs.
We will wait a little longer before we see any meaningful changes in construction materials costs. September data reported here. Also remember, PPI does not track imports, only domestic producers. INPUTS thru Sept up ~2% from avg2024.
November 26, 2025 at 1:28 PM
We will wait a little longer before we see any meaningful changes in construction materials costs. September data reported here. Also remember, PPI does not track imports, only domestic producers. INPUTS thru Sept up ~2% from avg2024.
a broad overview of productivity in construction
November 17, 2025 at 10:32 PM
a broad overview of productivity in construction
Environment for construction jobs looking difficult. Volume of work (spending minus inflation) available is declining all through 2026. Biggest declines by far, Manufacturing and SF Rsdn.
November 14, 2025 at 12:37 PM
Environment for construction jobs looking difficult. Volume of work (spending minus inflation) available is declining all through 2026. Biggest declines by far, Manufacturing and SF Rsdn.
I wrote this article about Construction JOLTS 7 yrs ago. Some of the recent numbers have changed but really nothing else has changed. That's why I do not reference JOLTS for construction to anticipate need for jobs. See plot.
October 9, 2025 at 3:58 PM
I wrote this article about Construction JOLTS 7 yrs ago. Some of the recent numbers have changed but really nothing else has changed. That's why I do not reference JOLTS for construction to anticipate need for jobs. See plot.
However, PPI Final Demand shows no such outsized gains.
September 12, 2025 at 6:04 PM
However, PPI Final Demand shows no such outsized gains.
While many of the construction cost items in the PPI are tame so far, there are a few that have outsized gains. PPI thru August.
YTD thru Aug (8mo) vs the 2024 avg
Concrete Pipe +6.2%
Lumber/Plywd +4.4%
Fab Str Steel +3.5%
Nonferrous wire +7.2%
Aluminum Shapes +12%
Diesel -10.3%
YTD thru Aug (8mo) vs the 2024 avg
Concrete Pipe +6.2%
Lumber/Plywd +4.4%
Fab Str Steel +3.5%
Nonferrous wire +7.2%
Aluminum Shapes +12%
Diesel -10.3%
September 12, 2025 at 6:01 PM
While many of the construction cost items in the PPI are tame so far, there are a few that have outsized gains. PPI thru August.
YTD thru Aug (8mo) vs the 2024 avg
Concrete Pipe +6.2%
Lumber/Plywd +4.4%
Fab Str Steel +3.5%
Nonferrous wire +7.2%
Aluminum Shapes +12%
Diesel -10.3%
YTD thru Aug (8mo) vs the 2024 avg
Concrete Pipe +6.2%
Lumber/Plywd +4.4%
Fab Str Steel +3.5%
Nonferrous wire +7.2%
Aluminum Shapes +12%
Diesel -10.3%
Final product. Out with 30yo carpet and dingy paint. New paint all around, new floor, new cabinet. Still need blinds, area rugs, sofa, but it's like living in a new house.
September 12, 2025 at 12:30 PM
Final product. Out with 30yo carpet and dingy paint. New paint all around, new floor, new cabinet. Still need blinds, area rugs, sofa, but it's like living in a new house.
Less posting recently. More brush strokes. Coming along nicely. Hardwoods in two. Weeks. Removed the picture frame from upper walls. Opened up the walls.
July 15, 2025 at 12:06 PM
Less posting recently. More brush strokes. Coming along nicely. Hardwoods in two. Weeks. Removed the picture frame from upper walls. Opened up the walls.
Cats aren't the only ones that like to curl up in containers
June 30, 2025 at 5:25 PM
Cats aren't the only ones that like to curl up in containers
Construction Jobs
Total hours worked peaked in March, now down 0.4%.
Jobs increased by 4,000 (<0.01%), but unemployment dropped from 5.6% to 3.5% (175,000). That would mean that 171,000 workers dropped out of the workforce.
Total hours worked peaked in March, now down 0.4%.
Jobs increased by 4,000 (<0.01%), but unemployment dropped from 5.6% to 3.5% (175,000). That would mean that 171,000 workers dropped out of the workforce.
June 6, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Construction Jobs
Total hours worked peaked in March, now down 0.4%.
Jobs increased by 4,000 (<0.01%), but unemployment dropped from 5.6% to 3.5% (175,000). That would mean that 171,000 workers dropped out of the workforce.
Total hours worked peaked in March, now down 0.4%.
Jobs increased by 4,000 (<0.01%), but unemployment dropped from 5.6% to 3.5% (175,000). That would mean that 171,000 workers dropped out of the workforce.
google tells me trump is 6'3" and bondi is 5'4". What's up? 5" heels?
May 6, 2025 at 12:30 PM
google tells me trump is 6'3" and bondi is 5'4". What's up? 5" heels?
[How much can construction's declining #productivity account for the trend?]
Constr labor is ~35% of total construction cost. So a 10% drop in productivity over 10 yrs accounts for a 3.5% increase in building cost inflation.
Here's a table of my construction inflation values.
Constr labor is ~35% of total construction cost. So a 10% drop in productivity over 10 yrs accounts for a 3.5% increase in building cost inflation.
Here's a table of my construction inflation values.
April 3, 2025 at 1:04 PM
[How much can construction's declining #productivity account for the trend?]
Constr labor is ~35% of total construction cost. So a 10% drop in productivity over 10 yrs accounts for a 3.5% increase in building cost inflation.
Here's a table of my construction inflation values.
Constr labor is ~35% of total construction cost. So a 10% drop in productivity over 10 yrs accounts for a 3.5% increase in building cost inflation.
Here's a table of my construction inflation values.
Tariff actions not yet reflected in Feb PPI Inputs or PPI Final Demand index. Still early. Also remember, PPI does not include imports or tariffs on imports. When we do see movement in the PPI, it reflects domestic pricing decisions following on tariffs.
March 13, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Tariff actions not yet reflected in Feb PPI Inputs or PPI Final Demand index. Still early. Also remember, PPI does not include imports or tariffs on imports. When we do see movement in the PPI, it reflects domestic pricing decisions following on tariffs.
Construction Analytics Outlook Feb 2025
In the report I said, "Don’t be surprised if 2025 construction jobs growth slows a bit. Jobs are slightly ahead of volume
growth, particularly in the Non-building Infrastructure sector.
edzarenski.com/2025/02/05/c...
In the report I said, "Don’t be surprised if 2025 construction jobs growth slows a bit. Jobs are slightly ahead of volume
growth, particularly in the Non-building Infrastructure sector.
edzarenski.com/2025/02/05/c...
March 7, 2025 at 7:20 PM
Construction Analytics Outlook Feb 2025
In the report I said, "Don’t be surprised if 2025 construction jobs growth slows a bit. Jobs are slightly ahead of volume
growth, particularly in the Non-building Infrastructure sector.
edzarenski.com/2025/02/05/c...
In the report I said, "Don’t be surprised if 2025 construction jobs growth slows a bit. Jobs are slightly ahead of volume
growth, particularly in the Non-building Infrastructure sector.
edzarenski.com/2025/02/05/c...
Could the question be, are we really in a labor shortage?
March 7, 2025 at 2:28 PM
Could the question be, are we really in a labor shortage?
After inflation growth way below the spending plots
Construction spending Total, in constant $, has increased only 6% since 2020.
Construction spending Total, in constant $, has increased only 6% since 2020.
March 4, 2025 at 1:13 PM
After inflation growth way below the spending plots
Construction spending Total, in constant $, has increased only 6% since 2020.
Construction spending Total, in constant $, has increased only 6% since 2020.
2025 Construction Spending
Rsdn after 2024 up 6.1%, 2025 forecast up 6%
Nonres Bldgs 2024 up 6.8%, 2025 forecast up 2%
Non-bldg Infra 2024 up 7.2%, 2025 up 7%
Total construction 2024 up 6.6%, 2025 forecast up 5%.
Rsdn after 2024 up 6.1%, 2025 forecast up 6%
Nonres Bldgs 2024 up 6.8%, 2025 forecast up 2%
Non-bldg Infra 2024 up 7.2%, 2025 up 7%
Total construction 2024 up 6.6%, 2025 forecast up 5%.
March 4, 2025 at 1:10 PM
2025 Construction Spending
Rsdn after 2024 up 6.1%, 2025 forecast up 6%
Nonres Bldgs 2024 up 6.8%, 2025 forecast up 2%
Non-bldg Infra 2024 up 7.2%, 2025 up 7%
Total construction 2024 up 6.6%, 2025 forecast up 5%.
Rsdn after 2024 up 6.1%, 2025 forecast up 6%
Nonres Bldgs 2024 up 6.8%, 2025 forecast up 2%
Non-bldg Infra 2024 up 7.2%, 2025 up 7%
Total construction 2024 up 6.6%, 2025 forecast up 5%.
Just to show this forecast isn't crazy, here's the same info, but plotting only Jan 2024 thru Jan 2026. Pretty flat. How you see a forecast depends on the relative time frame.
February 25, 2025 at 1:10 PM
Just to show this forecast isn't crazy, here's the same info, but plotting only Jan 2024 thru Jan 2026. Pretty flat. How you see a forecast depends on the relative time frame.
Is there a construction jobs shortage?
Jobs growth has been consistent over the last 14 years. After the 2020 dip, the slope (annual rate) of jobs growth is about the same as Jan'11-Jan'20. Jobs increase at about 3.5%/yr to 4%/yr., regardless of what volume is doing.
Jobs growth has been consistent over the last 14 years. After the 2020 dip, the slope (annual rate) of jobs growth is about the same as Jan'11-Jan'20. Jobs increase at about 3.5%/yr to 4%/yr., regardless of what volume is doing.
February 22, 2025 at 12:56 PM
Is there a construction jobs shortage?
Jobs growth has been consistent over the last 14 years. After the 2020 dip, the slope (annual rate) of jobs growth is about the same as Jan'11-Jan'20. Jobs increase at about 3.5%/yr to 4%/yr., regardless of what volume is doing.
Jobs growth has been consistent over the last 14 years. After the 2020 dip, the slope (annual rate) of jobs growth is about the same as Jan'11-Jan'20. Jobs increase at about 3.5%/yr to 4%/yr., regardless of what volume is doing.
Good example of reviewing every single last thing before posting. Article is fine, but the pic that gets posted when you direct this post to soc med (which is a step outside the body of the article) was not updated.. Here 's the updated pic.
February 21, 2025 at 11:46 PM
Good example of reviewing every single last thing before posting. Article is fine, but the pic that gets posted when you direct this post to soc med (which is a step outside the body of the article) was not updated.. Here 's the updated pic.
Here's a 6mo old table with nummerous of the indices from BuRrec and NHCCI.It appears the biggest variances between these two occurred in 22-23, when highway spending increased 33%. Margins follow spending up.
February 20, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Here's a 6mo old table with nummerous of the indices from BuRrec and NHCCI.It appears the biggest variances between these two occurred in 22-23, when highway spending increased 33%. Margins follow spending up.
The PPI Final Demand index (for Nonres Bldgs), the all inclusive final cost to owner, January index closes out Q4'24. This index has not increased more than 1%/qtr since Q1'23. Total index growth was 0.4% for 2024.
February 15, 2025 at 4:22 PM
The PPI Final Demand index (for Nonres Bldgs), the all inclusive final cost to owner, January index closes out Q4'24. This index has not increased more than 1%/qtr since Q1'23. Total index growth was 0.4% for 2024.
PPI Inputs to Construction ticked up about 1% in January, but essentially, with little bumps, have been pretty flat for 2 years.
February 15, 2025 at 4:17 PM
PPI Inputs to Construction ticked up about 1% in January, but essentially, with little bumps, have been pretty flat for 2 years.