The problem with diagnosing "the electorate have unreasonable expectations around tax and spend" is that those expectations did not develop in a vacuum. They are the product of decades of politicians and the media telling them they can have x services with y tax levels, or not contradicting it.

This is a crucial reminder from @drjennings.bsky.social that the information we consume directly shapes our perceptions of what is considered acceptable.

Our recent research highlights how the consumption of media and information is changing. In our poll of UK adults...
⭐74% think the information they consume online is not accurate
⭐64% think mainstream news media is biased
⭐51% think mainstream news outlets are primarily driven by profit

There's no sugarcoating these figures for Labour. In a Holyrood election that is about holding their 2024 coalition together, they can't afford to break even on job performance among their own voters.

Sarwar's numbers are slightly better than Starmer's, but not good enough to carry his party:

Reform's lead over Labour clearly continuing to tick up. The combined vote share for Cons and Labour still below 40% - well down on 57% at the General Election, which was the lowest since 1922 when Labour emerged as the main challenger to the Tories.

But equally they have done a series of things people like (am like a broken record on this) but haven’t had the cut through. As we set out in our new report on Labour 1 year in with @uclpolicylab.bsky.social there are things that could turn it around. Report worth a read

bsky.app/profile/luke...

Immigration now surpasses the economy as the biggest issue facing the country for voters in YouGov's latest tracker

Our latest polling focuses on three critical themes facing the workplace in 2025.

🌀Leading through transformation: Only 8% of employees strongly agree that their AI strategy has been clearly communicated.

This raises the question of whether support for Reform has reached its ceiling

Our new research explores attitudes to net zero, and shows the extent to which communication and language impacts attitudes.

fgsglobal.com/insights/the...

Great threat from Rob Ford highlighting the importance of thinking beyond the polls, and remembering to expect the unexpected

In today’s @financialtimes.com a nice use of our MRP to show Reform gains in areas with high child poverty. Explains both Reform’s pivot on the two child cap & why (leaving aside a moral case) Labour have an electoral imperative to make progress on tackling child poverty on.ft.com/4mQKjJZ

While Reform finished in 3rd place in today’s Holyrood by-election, the result signals its emergence as a serious force in Scottish politics. Reform secured 26% of the vote placing them less than 6 percentage points behind Labour’s winning vote share of 31.6%.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c1...

South Korea gender divide update 😲

Young men lean right by 50 points
(74% conservative vs 24% centre-left)

Young women lean left by 22 points
(58% centre-left vs 36% cons)

NEW: Who are the voters Labour risks losing to Reform?

How might Lab unite them with the rest of its election winning coalition? How might Reform win them over?

Some big new research out today with @persuasionuk.bsky.social as featured by @greenmirandahere.bsky.social in today's FT 🧵👇

How has partisan opinion shifted in the eight months since the election?

Most notable is Reform's surge, which is actually quite flat in regional terms, with the most notable core differentiator being age - with Reform gaining more among older Britons, contrary to some assumptions.

⚡UK public sentiment snippets

1️⃣Starmer's approval
2️⃣Farage's relationship with Trump
3️⃣Scottish Labour favourability