Drew Bailey
@drewhalbailey.bsky.social
education, developmental psychology, research methods at UC Irvine
Reposted by Drew Bailey
Interested in models used to estimate lagged effects in panel data? We (@rebiweidmann.bsky.social, Hyewon Yang) have a new paper looking at patterns of stability and their implications for bias and model choice: osf.io/preprints/ps... [1/x]
OSF
osf.io
September 19, 2025 at 1:22 PM
Interested in models used to estimate lagged effects in panel data? We (@rebiweidmann.bsky.social, Hyewon Yang) have a new paper looking at patterns of stability and their implications for bias and model choice: osf.io/preprints/ps... [1/x]
Collider effect in the real world!
Protip: If you go to an Indian restaurant in America, and it's all aloo gobi this and tikka masala that, but there's a dish or two that you don't recognize - get it. There's a very good chance it's a regional specialty from where the owners grew up and it will be delicious
August 25, 2025 at 5:06 PM
Collider effect in the real world!
About 2/3 of the posts on this platform linking to the recent NYT article on null findings from Baby’s First Years have this reaction. You can search the headline and verify yourself!
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/28/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/28/u...
August 18, 2025 at 8:54 PM
About 2/3 of the posts on this platform linking to the recent NYT article on null findings from Baby’s First Years have this reaction. You can search the headline and verify yourself!
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/28/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/28/u...
I used Paige’s first book in a class students with a wide range of previous exposure to and attitudes about behavior genetics, and they all seem to find it very interesting. Will probably try this one too!
August 9, 2025 at 10:01 PM
I used Paige’s first book in a class students with a wide range of previous exposure to and attitudes about behavior genetics, and they all seem to find it very interesting. Will probably try this one too!
Random Intercepts and Slopes in Longitudinal Models: When Are They "Good" and "Bad" Controls?
or
Illusory Traits 2: Revenge of the Slopes
Led by Siling Guo, with Nicolas Hübner, Steffen Zitzmann, Martin Hecht, and Kou Murayama.
Comments welcome!
osf.io/preprints/ps...
or
Illusory Traits 2: Revenge of the Slopes
Led by Siling Guo, with Nicolas Hübner, Steffen Zitzmann, Martin Hecht, and Kou Murayama.
Comments welcome!
osf.io/preprints/ps...
OSF
osf.io
July 25, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Random Intercepts and Slopes in Longitudinal Models: When Are They "Good" and "Bad" Controls?
or
Illusory Traits 2: Revenge of the Slopes
Led by Siling Guo, with Nicolas Hübner, Steffen Zitzmann, Martin Hecht, and Kou Murayama.
Comments welcome!
osf.io/preprints/ps...
or
Illusory Traits 2: Revenge of the Slopes
Led by Siling Guo, with Nicolas Hübner, Steffen Zitzmann, Martin Hecht, and Kou Murayama.
Comments welcome!
osf.io/preprints/ps...
Reposted by Drew Bailey
New blog post! Let's say you've measured two variables repeatedly and want to investigate how one affects the other over time. Here are some recommendations for how to do that well.
www.the100.ci/2025/06/25/r...
www.the100.ci/2025/06/25/r...
Reviewer notes: So you’re interested in “lagged effects.”
In some fields, researchers who end up with time series of two variables of interest (X and Y) like to analyze (reciprocal) lagged effects between them. Does X affect Y at a later point in time, and d...
www.the100.ci
June 25, 2025 at 12:27 PM
New blog post! Let's say you've measured two variables repeatedly and want to investigate how one affects the other over time. Here are some recommendations for how to do that well.
www.the100.ci/2025/06/25/r...
www.the100.ci/2025/06/25/r...
Reposted by Drew Bailey
6) LCGAs never replicate across datasets or in the same dataset. They usually just produce the salsa pattern (Hi/med/low) or the cats cradle (Hi/low/increasing/decreasing).
This has misled entire fields (see all of George Bonnano's work on resilience, for example).
psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/201...
This has misled entire fields (see all of George Bonnano's work on resilience, for example).
psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/201...
APA PsycNet
psycnet.apa.org
June 20, 2025 at 7:05 PM
6) LCGAs never replicate across datasets or in the same dataset. They usually just produce the salsa pattern (Hi/med/low) or the cats cradle (Hi/low/increasing/decreasing).
This has misled entire fields (see all of George Bonnano's work on resilience, for example).
psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/201...
This has misled entire fields (see all of George Bonnano's work on resilience, for example).
psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/201...
Reposted by Drew Bailey
Our paper "A fragmented field" has just been accepted at AMPPS. We find it's not just you, psychology is really getting more confusing (construct and measure fragmentation is rising).
We updated the preprint with the (substantial) revision, please check it out.
osf.io/preprints/ps...
We updated the preprint with the (substantial) revision, please check it out.
osf.io/preprints/ps...
June 13, 2025 at 10:50 AM
Our paper "A fragmented field" has just been accepted at AMPPS. We find it's not just you, psychology is really getting more confusing (construct and measure fragmentation is rising).
We updated the preprint with the (substantial) revision, please check it out.
osf.io/preprints/ps...
We updated the preprint with the (substantial) revision, please check it out.
osf.io/preprints/ps...
I have seen lots of higher ed talks and papers in the last 10 years convincingly demonstrating that just making some cutoff (getting into a more selective college or major, not taking remedial classes) helps the marginal student. Great to see an emerging consensus. (1/2)
June 11, 2025 at 8:35 PM
I have seen lots of higher ed talks and papers in the last 10 years convincingly demonstrating that just making some cutoff (getting into a more selective college or major, not taking remedial classes) helps the marginal student. Great to see an emerging consensus. (1/2)
For every cause, x, there is some group of people (often disproportionately people who study x) who think the effects of x are way bigger than they are. Therefore, I think we are doomed to read (or worse, make) "Yeah, but the effect of x is small" takes forever.
June 11, 2025 at 8:24 PM
For every cause, x, there is some group of people (often disproportionately people who study x) who think the effects of x are way bigger than they are. Therefore, I think we are doomed to read (or worse, make) "Yeah, but the effect of x is small" takes forever.
Reposted by Drew Bailey
I investigated how often papers' significant (p < .05) results are fragile (.01 ≤ p < .05) p-values. An excess of such p-values suggests low odds of replicability.
From 2004-2024, the rates of fragile p-values have gone down precipitously across every psychology discipline (!)
From 2004-2024, the rates of fragile p-values have gone down precipitously across every psychology discipline (!)
April 9, 2025 at 1:15 PM
I investigated how often papers' significant (p < .05) results are fragile (.01 ≤ p < .05) p-values. An excess of such p-values suggests low odds of replicability.
From 2004-2024, the rates of fragile p-values have gone down precipitously across every psychology discipline (!)
From 2004-2024, the rates of fragile p-values have gone down precipitously across every psychology discipline (!)
Reposted by Drew Bailey
IN MEMORY OF LYNN FUCHS
The field of special education lost a visionary and beloved leader with the passing of Lynn Fuchs on May 7, 2025. Her absence leaves a profound void—not only in our scholarly community, but in the hearts of all who had the privilege of knowing her.
[ click reading below ]
The field of special education lost a visionary and beloved leader with the passing of Lynn Fuchs on May 7, 2025. Her absence leaves a profound void—not only in our scholarly community, but in the hearts of all who had the privilege of knowing her.
[ click reading below ]
In Memory of Lynn Fuchs
Email from CEC Division for Research May 12, 2025 In Memory of Lynn Fuchs The field of special education lost a visionary and beloved leader with the passing of Lynn Fuchs on May 7, 2025. Her absenc
conta.cc
May 12, 2025 at 4:18 PM
IN MEMORY OF LYNN FUCHS
The field of special education lost a visionary and beloved leader with the passing of Lynn Fuchs on May 7, 2025. Her absence leaves a profound void—not only in our scholarly community, but in the hearts of all who had the privilege of knowing her.
[ click reading below ]
The field of special education lost a visionary and beloved leader with the passing of Lynn Fuchs on May 7, 2025. Her absence leaves a profound void—not only in our scholarly community, but in the hearts of all who had the privilege of knowing her.
[ click reading below ]
Reposted by Drew Bailey
Thanks to everybody who chimed in!
I arrived at the conclusion that (1) there's a lot of interesting stuff about interactions and (2) the figure I was looking for does not exist.
So, I made it myself! Here's a simple illustration of how to control for confounding in interactions:>
I arrived at the conclusion that (1) there's a lot of interesting stuff about interactions and (2) the figure I was looking for does not exist.
So, I made it myself! Here's a simple illustration of how to control for confounding in interactions:>
May 11, 2025 at 5:34 AM
Thanks to everybody who chimed in!
I arrived at the conclusion that (1) there's a lot of interesting stuff about interactions and (2) the figure I was looking for does not exist.
So, I made it myself! Here's a simple illustration of how to control for confounding in interactions:>
I arrived at the conclusion that (1) there's a lot of interesting stuff about interactions and (2) the figure I was looking for does not exist.
So, I made it myself! Here's a simple illustration of how to control for confounding in interactions:>
Is there a name for the fallacy that, because things are different from each other, one cannot compare them? (If not, I propose the “apples and oranges fallacy”)
@stefanschubert.bsky.social
@stefanschubert.bsky.social
May 3, 2025 at 6:57 PM
Is there a name for the fallacy that, because things are different from each other, one cannot compare them? (If not, I propose the “apples and oranges fallacy”)
@stefanschubert.bsky.social
@stefanschubert.bsky.social
Reposted by Drew Bailey
Starting to feel like "don't look at the coefficients, just calculate whatever metric is relevant to your research question" is a highly underappreciated stats hack and also I may have to get myself a marginaleffects T-shirt.
April 29, 2025 at 12:28 PM
Starting to feel like "don't look at the coefficients, just calculate whatever metric is relevant to your research question" is a highly underappreciated stats hack and also I may have to get myself a marginaleffects T-shirt.
Reposted by Drew Bailey
Incredibly excited to have this finally come out! Model evaluation should be about comparisons, so we have a metric that puts comparisons in predictive performance on a common scale. I can’t make a thread about this better than @crahal.com, so I’ll let him take it away.
1/5 📄✨ITS FINALLY HERE!📄✨. After _five_ years, our new model evaluation metric — The InterModel Vigorish (IMV) — is now published (@plosone.org).
Paper: bit.ly/3RlqrQH
Preprint: bit.ly/41LzGjm
Code: github.com/intermodelvigorish
‘What’s the vig on this action?’ (bit.ly/4hPoZ3Z). ⬇️⬇️⬇️
Paper: bit.ly/3RlqrQH
Preprint: bit.ly/41LzGjm
Code: github.com/intermodelvigorish
‘What’s the vig on this action?’ (bit.ly/4hPoZ3Z). ⬇️⬇️⬇️
March 28, 2025 at 3:43 AM
Incredibly excited to have this finally come out! Model evaluation should be about comparisons, so we have a metric that puts comparisons in predictive performance on a common scale. I can’t make a thread about this better than @crahal.com, so I’ll let him take it away.
Reposted by Drew Bailey
Surreal read of the day: a paper using USAID-funded and now terminated Demographic & Health Surveys to count the huge number of lives saved by the now frozen US PEPFAR program to fight HIV, co-authored by current US admin’s nominee to lead cuts in health research
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
HIV Development Assistance and Adult Mortality in Africa
To determine the effects of the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), Bendavid and coauthors conducted analyses of adult mortality using person-level data from the Demographic and He...
jamanetwork.com
February 26, 2025 at 5:33 PM
Surreal read of the day: a paper using USAID-funded and now terminated Demographic & Health Surveys to count the huge number of lives saved by the now frozen US PEPFAR program to fight HIV, co-authored by current US admin’s nominee to lead cuts in health research
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
Reposted by Drew Bailey
After a long wait, the working paper for the Many-Economists Project: The Sources of Researcher Variation in Economics. We had 146 teams perform the same research three times, each time with less freedom. What source of freedom leads to different choices and results? papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
The Sources of Researcher Variation in Economics
We use a rigorous three-stage many-analysts design to assess how different researcher decisions—specifically data cleaning, research design, and the interpretat
papers.ssrn.com
February 25, 2025 at 7:17 PM
After a long wait, the working paper for the Many-Economists Project: The Sources of Researcher Variation in Economics. We had 146 teams perform the same research three times, each time with less freedom. What source of freedom leads to different choices and results? papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
A clear and compelling read on IES. I hope policymakers pay attention to this. There is a very strong bipartisan case to be made for continuing to fund the development, evaluation, and syntheses of evaluations of educational programs.
How IES Helps Students and Educators. theconversation.com/helping-teac...
Helping teachers learn what works in the classroom − and what doesn’t − will get a lot harder without the Department of Education’s Institute of Education Sciences
The nonpartisan arm of the Education Department supports research and shares data on student progress. It identifies what works and what doesn’t.
theconversation.com
February 12, 2025 at 10:27 PM
A clear and compelling read on IES. I hope policymakers pay attention to this. There is a very strong bipartisan case to be made for continuing to fund the development, evaluation, and syntheses of evaluations of educational programs.
Reposted by Drew Bailey
Check out my amazing colleague, collaborator and leader of the Playful Learning Landscapes work in Orange County: news.uci.edu/2025/02/07/u...
UCI Podcast: Bringing the classroom into the community
Andres Bustamante is transforming common spaces into places of learning
news.uci.edu
February 10, 2025 at 10:18 PM
Check out my amazing colleague, collaborator and leader of the Playful Learning Landscapes work in Orange County: news.uci.edu/2025/02/07/u...
Reposted by Drew Bailey
New essay on NIH and indirect costs:
goodscience.substack.com/p/indirect-c...
goodscience.substack.com/p/indirect-c...
Indirect Costs at NIH . . .
I wasn’t planning on spending part of a Saturday writing about cost accounting principles and the like, but NIH-world was hit with a doozy of a policy announcement on Friday night:
goodscience.substack.com
February 8, 2025 at 11:53 PM
New essay on NIH and indirect costs:
goodscience.substack.com/p/indirect-c...
goodscience.substack.com/p/indirect-c...
Free million dollar idea: food truck that sells mapo tofu and cornbread.
February 1, 2025 at 1:27 AM
Free million dollar idea: food truck that sells mapo tofu and cornbread.
Reposted by Drew Bailey
Cool new review from @drewhalbailey.bsky.social that’s well worth the read! www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...
Learning About Development from Interventions | Annual Reviews
In this review, we argue that the role of causally informative evaluations of interventions within developmental psychology should be elevated. Causally informative research on the effects of interven...
www.annualreviews.org
January 24, 2025 at 2:13 AM
Cool new review from @drewhalbailey.bsky.social that’s well worth the read! www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...
Reposted by Drew Bailey
Do you know a US-based researcher who wants to update their meta-analysis skills? #MATI2025 is accepting applications for our one-week training workshop in Chicago from July 28th – August 1st. Apply by March 2nd: www.meta-analysis-training-institute.com/application-...
Application Info | Meta-Analysis Training Institute
www.meta-analysis-training-institute.com
January 21, 2025 at 6:57 PM
Do you know a US-based researcher who wants to update their meta-analysis skills? #MATI2025 is accepting applications for our one-week training workshop in Chicago from July 28th – August 1st. Apply by March 2nd: www.meta-analysis-training-institute.com/application-...