Captain Semi-Obvious
@dr-dread.bsky.social
have pH.D., will travel. Father of two, professional smartass and stats geek. He/him
Reposted by Captain Semi-Obvious
Yeah I mean the *2024 exit polls* found 56% support path to legal status for most undocumented versus only 40% deportations. Entire commentariat has pretended not to know this for the last year or so
Here's the thing: This was true in 2024. In the very same surveys where media shouted from rooftops that majorities supported "mass deportation" MORE people supported having people stay. But the latter didn't merit airtime. Chart credit: @mikepod.bsky.social
February 14, 2026 at 5:07 PM
Yeah I mean the *2024 exit polls* found 56% support path to legal status for most undocumented versus only 40% deportations. Entire commentariat has pretended not to know this for the last year or so
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February 13, 2026 at 6:55 PM
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🚨BREAKING: Todd Lyons, the acting chief of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), has admitted to senators that federal immigration officers would have “no reason” to be at voting locations this November. www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/...
ICE chief admits there’s no reason for immigration agents to be at voting sites
The chief's comments follow threatening statements by Trump and his close allies about the upcoming 2026 midterm elections.
www.democracydocket.com
February 12, 2026 at 8:40 PM
🚨BREAKING: Todd Lyons, the acting chief of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), has admitted to senators that federal immigration officers would have “no reason” to be at voting locations this November. www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/...
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Bad Bunny understood the assignment…
February 9, 2026 at 3:05 AM
Bad Bunny understood the assignment…
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BASH: Is this measles outbreak a consequence of the administration undermining support for vaccines?
DR OZ: I don't believe so. Secretary Kennedy has been advocating for measles vaccines
BASH: Oh, come on
DR OZ: I don't believe so. Secretary Kennedy has been advocating for measles vaccines
BASH: Oh, come on
February 8, 2026 at 2:29 PM
BASH: Is this measles outbreak a consequence of the administration undermining support for vaccines?
DR OZ: I don't believe so. Secretary Kennedy has been advocating for measles vaccines
BASH: Oh, come on
DR OZ: I don't believe so. Secretary Kennedy has been advocating for measles vaccines
BASH: Oh, come on
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BREAKING: Tulsi Gabbard BLOCKED an NSA report of a call between foreign intelligence and a person close to Trump. I will sit down with the whistleblower lawyer TOMORROW at 12 PM PT on @meidastouch.com www.nytimes.com/2026/02/07/u...
Whistle-Blower Report Involved Intelligence About a Trump Contact
www.nytimes.com
February 7, 2026 at 10:28 PM
BREAKING: Tulsi Gabbard BLOCKED an NSA report of a call between foreign intelligence and a person close to Trump. I will sit down with the whistleblower lawyer TOMORROW at 12 PM PT on @meidastouch.com www.nytimes.com/2026/02/07/u...
Reposted by Captain Semi-Obvious
Tactical success and military power without strategy or a plan should sound familiar, and not in a good way.
One Month Later, There’s Still No Plan for Venezuela
The Trump administration is the dog that caught the Caracas.
lnk.thebulwark.com
February 5, 2026 at 1:30 AM
Tactical success and military power without strategy or a plan should sound familiar, and not in a good way.
Reposted by Captain Semi-Obvious
Miller clumsily deployed an army of masked goons to commit crimes across the nation and, in the process, destroyed Trump's best-polling issue and sent his approval plummeting to an all-time low.
But sure, this was a "rare misstep" and not part of a larger pattern of incompetence
But sure, this was a "rare misstep" and not part of a larger pattern of incompetence
Stephen Miller called Alex Pretti a “domestic terrorist” after the VA nurse was killed by federal agents, a rare misstep for Miller, the White House aide stoking President Trump’s boundary-pushing impulses.
🔗: on.wsj.com/49XmNXz
🔗: on.wsj.com/49XmNXz
February 4, 2026 at 6:42 PM
Miller clumsily deployed an army of masked goons to commit crimes across the nation and, in the process, destroyed Trump's best-polling issue and sent his approval plummeting to an all-time low.
But sure, this was a "rare misstep" and not part of a larger pattern of incompetence
But sure, this was a "rare misstep" and not part of a larger pattern of incompetence
Reposted by Captain Semi-Obvious
We gotta come up with a better system than “everything rests on whether these twelve billionnaires are nice”
February 4, 2026 at 7:41 PM
We gotta come up with a better system than “everything rests on whether these twelve billionnaires are nice”
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one of my strongest beliefs is that we're in our situation right now bc some of the most prominent talking heads (e.g. joe rogan, andrew schulz) are learning about politics in their 40s and 50s, instead of their teens and early 20s, and we have to go along for the ride as they learn basic things
February 4, 2026 at 10:10 PM
one of my strongest beliefs is that we're in our situation right now bc some of the most prominent talking heads (e.g. joe rogan, andrew schulz) are learning about politics in their 40s and 50s, instead of their teens and early 20s, and we have to go along for the ride as they learn basic things
Reposted by Captain Semi-Obvious
Heads are going to explode 💥
Cato Institute just nuked the lie. Immigrants have cut U.S. deficits by $14.5 TRILLION since 1994, slashing the national debt by a third.
All that “immigrants are bleeding us dry” noise? Absolute bullshit.
1/3
Cato Institute just nuked the lie. Immigrants have cut U.S. deficits by $14.5 TRILLION since 1994, slashing the national debt by a third.
All that “immigrants are bleeding us dry” noise? Absolute bullshit.
1/3
February 4, 2026 at 7:08 PM
Heads are going to explode 💥
Cato Institute just nuked the lie. Immigrants have cut U.S. deficits by $14.5 TRILLION since 1994, slashing the national debt by a third.
All that “immigrants are bleeding us dry” noise? Absolute bullshit.
1/3
Cato Institute just nuked the lie. Immigrants have cut U.S. deficits by $14.5 TRILLION since 1994, slashing the national debt by a third.
All that “immigrants are bleeding us dry” noise? Absolute bullshit.
1/3
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Reposted by Captain Semi-Obvious
Garcia: I want to remind the American public of Stephen Miller. There's probably no single person in this government that has done more damage and more harm to people across this country than this man right here. It's our job to hold him responsible
February 3, 2026 at 11:04 PM
Garcia: I want to remind the American public of Stephen Miller. There's probably no single person in this government that has done more damage and more harm to people across this country than this man right here. It's our job to hold him responsible
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February 2, 2026 at 1:18 AM
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What's most amazing about this is the fact that the WSJ needed a “study” to figure it out.
February 1, 2026 at 3:33 AM
What's most amazing about this is the fact that the WSJ needed a “study” to figure it out.
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Reposted by Captain Semi-Obvious
Wow -- incredible!!!
January 30, 2026 at 6:11 PM
Wow -- incredible!!!
Reposted by Captain Semi-Obvious
BREAKING: Bernie Sanders is introducing an amendment to cut ICE’s $75 billion funding increase, and to use those funds to restore the federal cuts to health care.
January 30, 2026 at 8:31 PM
BREAKING: Bernie Sanders is introducing an amendment to cut ICE’s $75 billion funding increase, and to use those funds to restore the federal cuts to health care.
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Checking in on Trump's tariffs
January 30, 2026 at 1:00 AM
Checking in on Trump's tariffs
Reposted by Captain Semi-Obvious
Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., rolls out his demand for supporting a DHS appropriations bill: fire Stephen Miller
January 28, 2026 at 3:19 AM
Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., rolls out his demand for supporting a DHS appropriations bill: fire Stephen Miller
Reposted by Captain Semi-Obvious
I'm calling bullshit on the media narrative that Trump is "pivoting" and "deescalating" on his ICE raids. The threshold is this: As long as the military occupations and the treatment of US cities as enemy territory continue, there's no pivot. ICE out. 1/
(New piece)
newrepublic.com/article/2057...
(New piece)
newrepublic.com/article/2057...
Donald Trump Is Frightened
Trump wants to appear eager to minimize out-of-control clashes between government militias and protesters. But he doesn’t want to stop the things causing those clashes in the first place.
newrepublic.com
January 28, 2026 at 12:40 PM
I'm calling bullshit on the media narrative that Trump is "pivoting" and "deescalating" on his ICE raids. The threshold is this: As long as the military occupations and the treatment of US cities as enemy territory continue, there's no pivot. ICE out. 1/
(New piece)
newrepublic.com/article/2057...
(New piece)
newrepublic.com/article/2057...
Reposted by Captain Semi-Obvious
Trump’s first year answered a crucial question: “How fast can a country go from superpower to circus?” 2026 will test how long the clowns last before the lions notice.
January 27, 2026 at 10:56 PM
Trump’s first year answered a crucial question: “How fast can a country go from superpower to circus?” 2026 will test how long the clowns last before the lions notice.
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Republican state senator in FL.
January 28, 2026 at 12:41 AM
Republican state senator in FL.
Reposted by Captain Semi-Obvious
oh they are going to rip each other to shreds as it becomes clear that the country has decisively turned against them
Genuinely interesting. Kristi Noem is snitching that Stephen Miller is the one who made up the bullshit about Alex Pretti.
It would be genuinely useful if Congress can get her to admit that he has been dictating ALL OF THIS just like he dictated the murderboats.
www.axios.com/2026/01/27/t...
It would be genuinely useful if Congress can get her to admit that he has been dictating ALL OF THIS just like he dictated the murderboats.
www.axios.com/2026/01/27/t...
January 27, 2026 at 9:27 PM
oh they are going to rip each other to shreds as it becomes clear that the country has decisively turned against them
Reposted by Captain Semi-Obvious
Worth knowing.
popular.info/p/the-corpor...
popular.info/p/the-corpor...
The corporate enablers of the ICE crackdown
How Amazon, AT&T, and Citizens Bank are profiting from the administration’s mass deportation campaign.
popular.info
January 27, 2026 at 11:40 PM
Worth knowing.
popular.info/p/the-corpor...
popular.info/p/the-corpor...