Dan O'Brien
@danobrien20.bsky.social
Chief economist at IIEA and columnist with The Currency. Presenter and consultant on economics, policy and international relations.
Ireland needs more construction workers. Despite big infrastructure gaps, particularly in housing, the share of workers employment in the construction of buildings is only slightly above the EU average, and well below many other slower growing EU countries.
September 12, 2025 at 9:16 AM
Ireland needs more construction workers. Despite big infrastructure gaps, particularly in housing, the share of workers employment in the construction of buildings is only slightly above the EU average, and well below many other slower growing EU countries.
Ireland's leftward lurch is discussed in my column in The Currency today.
thecurrency.news/articles/199...
thecurrency.news/articles/199...
August 29, 2025 at 8:49 AM
Ireland's leftward lurch is discussed in my column in The Currency today.
thecurrency.news/articles/199...
thecurrency.news/articles/199...
European consumers should be able to make their own minds up on clearly labelled products and importing more US LNG makes sense for both sides, but the VAT request is bizarre and a non-runner.
For all their unconventional tactics, the Trump Team's nominal asks of Europe reflect the longstanding desires of US corporate interests:
allow US-made chlorine-rinsed chicken, hormone -fed beef, and liquified natural gas, while getting rid of VAT and digital taxes.
www.ft.com/content/c9be...
allow US-made chlorine-rinsed chicken, hormone -fed beef, and liquified natural gas, while getting rid of VAT and digital taxes.
www.ft.com/content/c9be...
US wants to retain key tariffs on EU, say European officials
Diplomats from the bloc say American negotiators stressed the need for levies as part of efforts to repatriate industry
www.ft.com
April 16, 2025 at 12:46 PM
European consumers should be able to make their own minds up on clearly labelled products and importing more US LNG makes sense for both sides, but the VAT request is bizarre and a non-runner.
Irish exports to the US increased by a staggering 210% in February. Companies have been scrambling to get product across the Atlantic before tariffs hit.
From today's CSO
From today's CSO
April 15, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Irish exports to the US increased by a staggering 210% in February. Companies have been scrambling to get product across the Atlantic before tariffs hit.
From today's CSO
From today's CSO
Reposted by Dan O'Brien
Six basic principles behind the White Paper:
- deterrence
- no competition EU & NATO
- defence industry as a resource
- responsibility for European defence
- autonomy of action
- solidarity
Full remarks ⬇️
ec.europa.eu/commission/p...
🎥 Keynote and Q&A⬇️
audiovisual.ec.europa.eu/en/video/I-2...
- deterrence
- no competition EU & NATO
- defence industry as a resource
- responsibility for European defence
- autonomy of action
- solidarity
Full remarks ⬇️
ec.europa.eu/commission/p...
🎥 Keynote and Q&A⬇️
audiovisual.ec.europa.eu/en/video/I-2...
April 11, 2025 at 11:30 AM
Six basic principles behind the White Paper:
- deterrence
- no competition EU & NATO
- defence industry as a resource
- responsibility for European defence
- autonomy of action
- solidarity
Full remarks ⬇️
ec.europa.eu/commission/p...
🎥 Keynote and Q&A⬇️
audiovisual.ec.europa.eu/en/video/I-2...
- deterrence
- no competition EU & NATO
- defence industry as a resource
- responsibility for European defence
- autonomy of action
- solidarity
Full remarks ⬇️
ec.europa.eu/commission/p...
🎥 Keynote and Q&A⬇️
audiovisual.ec.europa.eu/en/video/I-2...
First month-on-month decline in US inflation since...Trump was last in office.
April 10, 2025 at 2:39 PM
First month-on-month decline in US inflation since...Trump was last in office.
Reposted by Dan O'Brien
German manufacturing could most certainly do with cheaper electricity costs…
April 7, 2025 at 12:28 PM
German manufacturing could most certainly do with cheaper electricity costs…
Reposted by Dan O'Brien
Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2 was so big, @soumayakeynes.ft.com joined @chadpbown.com
for an emergency episode. They cover history, the dollar, and even the U.S. legal system to clarify what we know about the tariff actions so far.
EPISODE #207: tradetalkspodcast.com/podcast/207-...
for an emergency episode. They cover history, the dollar, and even the U.S. legal system to clarify what we know about the tariff actions so far.
EPISODE #207: tradetalkspodcast.com/podcast/207-...
April 6, 2025 at 2:47 PM
Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2 was so big, @soumayakeynes.ft.com joined @chadpbown.com
for an emergency episode. They cover history, the dollar, and even the U.S. legal system to clarify what we know about the tariff actions so far.
EPISODE #207: tradetalkspodcast.com/podcast/207-...
for an emergency episode. They cover history, the dollar, and even the U.S. legal system to clarify what we know about the tariff actions so far.
EPISODE #207: tradetalkspodcast.com/podcast/207-...
US tax changes incentivised American pharma companies to shift production to Ireland, ship product back home and pay tax in Ireland.
On 'This Week' on RTE radio at 1.30pm later to discuss the tariff threat.
On 'This Week' on RTE radio at 1.30pm later to discuss the tariff threat.
April 6, 2025 at 10:29 AM
US tax changes incentivised American pharma companies to shift production to Ireland, ship product back home and pay tax in Ireland.
On 'This Week' on RTE radio at 1.30pm later to discuss the tariff threat.
On 'This Week' on RTE radio at 1.30pm later to discuss the tariff threat.
If the world's biggest economy puts the sort of tariffs that are being mooted on all countries globally, it will arguably be the biggest economic policy decision in history.
The nuclear option of economic warfare.
125-year history of US tariffs charted below.
The nuclear option of economic warfare.
125-year history of US tariffs charted below.
April 2, 2025 at 9:59 AM
If the world's biggest economy puts the sort of tariffs that are being mooted on all countries globally, it will arguably be the biggest economic policy decision in history.
The nuclear option of economic warfare.
125-year history of US tariffs charted below.
The nuclear option of economic warfare.
125-year history of US tariffs charted below.
And unemployment just keeps falling in Europe. Yet another record low - 5.7% of the workforce is jobless.
The last decade has been quite glorious for the European labour market, after decades of unemployment being a huge problem in many countries and regions.
The last decade has been quite glorious for the European labour market, after decades of unemployment being a huge problem in many countries and regions.
April 1, 2025 at 2:51 PM
And unemployment just keeps falling in Europe. Yet another record low - 5.7% of the workforce is jobless.
The last decade has been quite glorious for the European labour market, after decades of unemployment being a huge problem in many countries and regions.
The last decade has been quite glorious for the European labour market, after decades of unemployment being a huge problem in many countries and regions.
Far more Americans think joblessness will rise that when Covid hit and employment tanked.
March 29, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Far more Americans think joblessness will rise that when Covid hit and employment tanked.
European policy makers have long fretted about the continent’s savings being invested in the US stock market. Trump may be solving that issue to their satisfaction as capital flows out of American stocks and into Europe.
March 24, 2025 at 2:00 PM
European policy makers have long fretted about the continent’s savings being invested in the US stock market. Trump may be solving that issue to their satisfaction as capital flows out of American stocks and into Europe.
Today's full-year figures on asylum applications from Eurostat show that Ireland had the joint fourth highest rate per capita in Europe in 2024, with Iceland even higher curiously.
March 20, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Today's full-year figures on asylum applications from Eurostat show that Ireland had the joint fourth highest rate per capita in Europe in 2024, with Iceland even higher curiously.
Reposted by Dan O'Brien
The big bearish USA / bullish European trade in one stunning chart.
The March Bank of America Fund Manager Survey shows the largest monthly drop ever in US equity allocation - whilst investors are ploughing into European equities.
As we say in Dutch: one man's death is another man's bread
The March Bank of America Fund Manager Survey shows the largest monthly drop ever in US equity allocation - whilst investors are ploughing into European equities.
As we say in Dutch: one man's death is another man's bread
March 19, 2025 at 9:55 AM
The big bearish USA / bullish European trade in one stunning chart.
The March Bank of America Fund Manager Survey shows the largest monthly drop ever in US equity allocation - whilst investors are ploughing into European equities.
As we say in Dutch: one man's death is another man's bread
The March Bank of America Fund Manager Survey shows the largest monthly drop ever in US equity allocation - whilst investors are ploughing into European equities.
As we say in Dutch: one man's death is another man's bread
Reposted by Dan O'Brien
1/🧵 Judges across ideological lines are ruling against Trump at strikingly similar rates (84% liberal, 86% centrist, 82% conservative). This isn't partisan opposition to Trump—it's the judiciary functioning as intended by cutting across partisan lines to uphold the Constitution.
March 18, 2025 at 9:32 PM
1/🧵 Judges across ideological lines are ruling against Trump at strikingly similar rates (84% liberal, 86% centrist, 82% conservative). This isn't partisan opposition to Trump—it's the judiciary functioning as intended by cutting across partisan lines to uphold the Constitution.
Reposted by Dan O'Brien
Exactly, the agricultural culture in France really reminds me of Ireland, the rural Ireland I grew up in and live again in today.
L’Irlande profounde and La France profounde, as de Tocqueville noted, are very similar in many ways.
L’Irlande profounde and La France profounde, as de Tocqueville noted, are very similar in many ways.
Les français, eux, ont toujours stocké, de tout un peu. On se rappellera de la crise de la moutarde de 2022. Il a fallu importer de la moutarde (immonde) de Pologne !
March 18, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Exactly, the agricultural culture in France really reminds me of Ireland, the rural Ireland I grew up in and live again in today.
L’Irlande profounde and La France profounde, as de Tocqueville noted, are very similar in many ways.
L’Irlande profounde and La France profounde, as de Tocqueville noted, are very similar in many ways.
The EU exports more than it imports in all main categories of manufactured goods because 32 million people work in the sector - the second biggest industrial base in the world after China.
March 18, 2025 at 10:22 AM
The EU exports more than it imports in all main categories of manufactured goods because 32 million people work in the sector - the second biggest industrial base in the world after China.
Another great Danish/European company, of many. Europe has a scaling problem for sure, but it actually manufactures far more than the US.
Lego revenue in recent years has been through the roof. The turnaround story of Lego is probably part of all European Economics 101 classes these days.
Chart source: buff.ly/RBVYjdl
Chart source: buff.ly/RBVYjdl
March 16, 2025 at 10:46 PM
Another great Danish/European company, of many. Europe has a scaling problem for sure, but it actually manufactures far more than the US.
Reposted by Dan O'Brien
Population density across South America by @pythonmaps. Star shaped distribution pattern of people in Argentina looks rather pretty on this map.
March 15, 2025 at 6:03 PM
Population density across South America by @pythonmaps. Star shaped distribution pattern of people in Argentina looks rather pretty on this map.
Central bankers live in fear of an ‘unanchoring of inflation expectations’. Looks like the tariff insanity has cut the anchor entirely.
US consumer sentiment tumbles as long-term inflation expectations hit 32-year high
https://www.ft.com/content/0217e79e-e9e3-4ec7-b24a-8d7ae7d26877
https://www.ft.com/content/0217e79e-e9e3-4ec7-b24a-8d7ae7d26877
US consumer sentiment tumbles as long-term inflation expectations hit 32-year high
Worse than expected data comes days ahead of Federal Reserve’s next meeting on interest rates
www.ft.com
March 14, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Central bankers live in fear of an ‘unanchoring of inflation expectations’. Looks like the tariff insanity has cut the anchor entirely.
On today's Ireland-US Oval Office meeting
* As 'good' as could have been hoped for.
* None of the animus shown towards some other countries/leaders
* Tariffs on April 2 still coming and a huge threat
* Not an issue for now, but care needed not to allow appearance of being peeled from the EU.
* As 'good' as could have been hoped for.
* None of the animus shown towards some other countries/leaders
* Tariffs on April 2 still coming and a huge threat
* Not an issue for now, but care needed not to allow appearance of being peeled from the EU.
March 12, 2025 at 7:52 PM
On today's Ireland-US Oval Office meeting
* As 'good' as could have been hoped for.
* None of the animus shown towards some other countries/leaders
* Tariffs on April 2 still coming and a huge threat
* Not an issue for now, but care needed not to allow appearance of being peeled from the EU.
* As 'good' as could have been hoped for.
* None of the animus shown towards some other countries/leaders
* Tariffs on April 2 still coming and a huge threat
* Not an issue for now, but care needed not to allow appearance of being peeled from the EU.
Reposted by Dan O'Brien
I believe this is a world first: An intra-day tariff chart.
March 12, 2025 at 12:18 AM
I believe this is a world first: An intra-day tariff chart.