Brett Watson
@brettjwatson.bsky.social
Resource economist at UAA studying mining, fishing, and the Alaska PFD. 🏳️🌈
Today I got to celebrate my UAA tenure and promotion. Very grateful for friends, family, and my professional network for their support over the years.
August 21, 2025 at 2:56 AM
Today I got to celebrate my UAA tenure and promotion. Very grateful for friends, family, and my professional network for their support over the years.
Kevin and I have not discussed this to coordinate the market, but my house is amazingly renting for the same nightly rate.
I'm willing to rent my house out to reporters for $2500/night. Conveniently within ~15 mins of JBER without traffic. #Alaska
August 14, 2025 at 4:14 AM
Kevin and I have not discussed this to coordinate the market, but my house is amazingly renting for the same nightly rate.
Ruh roh
OPEC+ agrees in principle to raise oil output by 548,000 bpd in Sept, sources say reut.rs/45v8OG2
OPEC+ agrees in principle to raise oil output by 548,000 bpd in Sept, sources say
OPEC+ has agreed in principle to boost oil output by 548,000 barrels per day in September, two OPEC+ sources familiar with the discussions said.
reut.rs
August 3, 2025 at 7:32 AM
Ruh roh
My favorite genre of panelist commentary: "The streets are full of $20 bills. To date, the (N=large) working groups/commissions/task forces we have assembled to figure out how to pick them up have failed, but task force N+1, with the 'right people' is really gonna crack this."
July 30, 2025 at 11:34 PM
My favorite genre of panelist commentary: "The streets are full of $20 bills. To date, the (N=large) working groups/commissions/task forces we have assembled to figure out how to pick them up have failed, but task force N+1, with the 'right people' is really gonna crack this."
AI does have some good use cases!
July 30, 2025 at 2:57 AM
AI does have some good use cases!
Need a Letter Box style user review site for vaccines.
Here’s my contribution:
“MMR vax has been great. Got it and the boosters at the recommended ages and have been Measles, Mumps, and Rubella free ever since!”
Here’s my contribution:
“MMR vax has been great. Got it and the boosters at the recommended ages and have been Measles, Mumps, and Rubella free ever since!”
July 22, 2025 at 4:20 AM
Need a Letter Box style user review site for vaccines.
Here’s my contribution:
“MMR vax has been great. Got it and the boosters at the recommended ages and have been Measles, Mumps, and Rubella free ever since!”
Here’s my contribution:
“MMR vax has been great. Got it and the boosters at the recommended ages and have been Measles, Mumps, and Rubella free ever since!”
Nationalizing small but strategically critical industries is a reasonable approach. The efficiency gains foregone just can’t be big enough to matter in the context of some of these markets.
Pentagon’s China-style rare earths deal triggers industry backlash https://on.ft.com/44YiF5P
Pentagon’s China-style rare earths deal triggers industry backlash
Executives and officials criticise US government deal to buy into country’s only producing rare earths company
on.ft.com
July 18, 2025 at 4:35 AM
Nationalizing small but strategically critical industries is a reasonable approach. The efficiency gains foregone just can’t be big enough to matter in the context of some of these markets.
Alaska's manufacturing employment in May was 9,200 jobs, the lowest level of May employment in that industry in at least 24 years. Seafood getting pummeled.
July 9, 2025 at 11:58 PM
Alaska's manufacturing employment in May was 9,200 jobs, the lowest level of May employment in that industry in at least 24 years. Seafood getting pummeled.
Reposted by Brett Watson
While building costs have only ever had limited explanatory power over US housing prices, even these imperfect correlations have weakened further in recent decades, from Brian Potter and Chad Syverson https://www.nber.org/papers/w33958
July 3, 2025 at 7:00 PM
While building costs have only ever had limited explanatory power over US housing prices, even these imperfect correlations have weakened further in recent decades, from Brian Potter and Chad Syverson https://www.nber.org/papers/w33958
“And when every mineral is critical…”
July 3, 2025 at 5:40 AM
“And when every mineral is critical…”
Alaska’s production tax was setup in the world where the state was the resource owner. Tax credits for the production tax were offset with revenue from royalties. But marginal barrels are now on fed not state land and our tax code probably needs a rethink under this new regime.
🤦♂️While production volumes are projected to rise by 44% over the next decade, production tax revenues are projected to FALL by 56% due to the effect of cascading credits. And some #akleg want to make that even worse. #StopTheBleed #FixOilTaxesFirst
June 21, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Alaska’s production tax was setup in the world where the state was the resource owner. Tax credits for the production tax were offset with revenue from royalties. But marginal barrels are now on fed not state land and our tax code probably needs a rethink under this new regime.
Meanwhile, on the west coast:
April 26, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Meanwhile, on the west coast:
Man. That correlation is not great.
April 26, 2025 at 4:35 AM
Man. That correlation is not great.
I have a new piece out today in The Conversation about Alaska LNG. I have more to say about this issue, but these are some of my high level thoughts for a national audience.
Alaska, rich in petroleum, faces an energy shortage
Alaska produces a lot of crude oil, but many of the state’s utilities, businesses and homes run on natural gas, which is in dwindling supply near population centers.
theconversation.com
April 24, 2025 at 10:18 PM
I have a new piece out today in The Conversation about Alaska LNG. I have more to say about this issue, but these are some of my high level thoughts for a national audience.
Still need a few more months of hard data before we can get a clear picture of what the macro impacts of the escalated tariffs are.
Retail sales were solid in March. +1.4% headline, +0.8% ex-cars and gas. Big surge in car sales (as expected). Restaurants rebounded after falling in Feb.
Overall, no sign of consumer pullback yet, although that may be in part because consumers are trying to get ahead of tariffs. #NumbersDay
Overall, no sign of consumer pullback yet, although that may be in part because consumers are trying to get ahead of tariffs. #NumbersDay
April 16, 2025 at 2:14 PM
Still need a few more months of hard data before we can get a clear picture of what the macro impacts of the escalated tariffs are.
Interesting stats on attendance at United Methodist Churches in Alaska.
April 13, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Interesting stats on attendance at United Methodist Churches in Alaska.
Reposted by Brett Watson
1. LLM-generated code tries to run code from online software packages. Which is normal but
2. The packages don’t exist. Which would normally cause an error but
3. Nefarious people have made malware under the package names that LLMs make up most often. So
4. Now the LLM code points to malware.
2. The packages don’t exist. Which would normally cause an error but
3. Nefarious people have made malware under the package names that LLMs make up most often. So
4. Now the LLM code points to malware.
LLMs hallucinating nonexistent software packages with plausible names leads to a new malware vulnerability: "slopsquatting."
LLMs can't stop making up software dependencies and sabotaging everything
: Hallucinated package names fuel 'slopsquatting'
www.theregister.com
April 12, 2025 at 11:43 PM
1. LLM-generated code tries to run code from online software packages. Which is normal but
2. The packages don’t exist. Which would normally cause an error but
3. Nefarious people have made malware under the package names that LLMs make up most often. So
4. Now the LLM code points to malware.
2. The packages don’t exist. Which would normally cause an error but
3. Nefarious people have made malware under the package names that LLMs make up most often. So
4. Now the LLM code points to malware.
The strategy board game industry is in a crisis mode. Most game publishers are very small businesses that can't absorb these costs or pass them on.
"the collective mood among [board game manufacturers] is almost universally a mixture of despair, frustration, confusion, and anger."
"the collective mood among [board game manufacturers] is almost universally a mixture of despair, frustration, confusion, and anger."
Tariff Talk from Publishers on Costs, Sales, Conventions, Projections, and More | BoardGameGeek News
boardgamegeek.com
April 11, 2025 at 7:31 PM
The strategy board game industry is in a crisis mode. Most game publishers are very small businesses that can't absorb these costs or pass them on.
"the collective mood among [board game manufacturers] is almost universally a mixture of despair, frustration, confusion, and anger."
"the collective mood among [board game manufacturers] is almost universally a mixture of despair, frustration, confusion, and anger."
How achievable are net zero pathways without CCS? Seems like the social gains from marching down the steepest part of the experience curve could be large. If DAC-EOR tech is carbon negative at the margin (given oil demand inelasticity) this seems like a win?
April 11, 2025 at 3:46 PM
How achievable are net zero pathways without CCS? Seems like the social gains from marching down the steepest part of the experience curve could be large. If DAC-EOR tech is carbon negative at the margin (given oil demand inelasticity) this seems like a win?
@kevinberryecon.bsky.social just showed me we had a 17% increase yoy on declared economics majors last Wednesday. Interesting timing
April 7, 2025 at 4:27 PM
@kevinberryecon.bsky.social just showed me we had a 17% increase yoy on declared economics majors last Wednesday. Interesting timing
Keep thinking about how these signals are paradoxical. The more dire the warnings, the more likely the admin is to reverse course, and the less likely the warnings materialize. Does crying wolf keep it at bay?
Goldman ups its recession odds for the 2nd time in a week — from 35% to 45%.
“.. sharp tightening in financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and a continued spike in policy uncertainty that is likely to depress capital spending by more than we had previously assumed.”
“.. sharp tightening in financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and a continued spike in policy uncertainty that is likely to depress capital spending by more than we had previously assumed.”
April 7, 2025 at 2:20 AM
Keep thinking about how these signals are paradoxical. The more dire the warnings, the more likely the admin is to reverse course, and the less likely the warnings materialize. Does crying wolf keep it at bay?
German kids in store for a rockin Christmas this year.
The Europeans should be bracing for a flood of cheap Chinese toys formerly directed to US markets. Visit Chartbook Top Link for more!
April 6, 2025 at 2:45 AM
German kids in store for a rockin Christmas this year.
Domestic producers respond to tariffs by raising prices.
Gitman's oxford button-down shirts, made in the USA
December 2024: $205
April 2025: $235
December 2024: $205
April 2025: $235
April 5, 2025 at 8:00 PM
Domestic producers respond to tariffs by raising prices.
Before accounting for the PFD....
cfo.dc.gov/sites/defaul...
cfo.dc.gov/sites/defaul...
March 30, 2025 at 9:12 PM
Before accounting for the PFD....
cfo.dc.gov/sites/defaul...
cfo.dc.gov/sites/defaul...
Why are the lowest rates of support in rural Alaska?
NEW POLLING: 74% of Alaskan voters support a BAN on trawling in federal waters.
As Data for Progress reports, "Almost 3 in 4 Alaska voters (74%) think the federal government should ban trawling in waters off the coast of Alaska.
As Data for Progress reports, "Almost 3 in 4 Alaska voters (74%) think the federal government should ban trawling in waters off the coast of Alaska.
March 22, 2025 at 7:10 PM
Why are the lowest rates of support in rural Alaska?