Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets
@ak4sb.bsky.social
A non-partisan project focused on helping develop and advocate for responsible state and federal fiscal policies.
ICYMI. This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| The K-12 Task Force needs to address revenues, the #AKfiscal debate sounds like two kids fighting: it's your fault, no, it's your fault & the pre-session legislator/local meetings should be two-way. #akleg buff.ly/pJk2mO7
November 22, 2025 at 11:30 PM
ICYMI. This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| The K-12 Task Force needs to address revenues, the #AKfiscal debate sounds like two kids fighting: it's your fault, no, it's your fault & the pre-session legislator/local meetings should be two-way. #akleg buff.ly/pJk2mO7
The Rolling 4-Wk Avgs| To provide perspective on $$ANS trends as well as the relationship b/w ANS & other reference prices, wkly we chart the 4-wk avg & differentials. Current ANS 4-wk avg $66, ahead of both Brent ($1.34) and Brent/WTI avg ($3.40). #akleg
November 22, 2025 at 10:00 PM
The Rolling 4-Wk Avgs| To provide perspective on $$ANS trends as well as the relationship b/w ANS & other reference prices, wkly we chart the 4-wk avg & differentials. Current ANS 4-wk avg $66, ahead of both Brent ($1.34) and Brent/WTI avg ($3.40). #akleg
Holy friggin cow. Following up on our Friday column, a reader suggested we rank all of the states by growth in real median household income over the last 40 years. Hint: Let your eye go quickly to the BOTTOM of the chart. 👀 #akleg
November 22, 2025 at 8:30 PM
Holy friggin cow. Following up on our Friday column, a reader suggested we rank all of the states by growth in real median household income over the last 40 years. Hint: Let your eye go quickly to the BOTTOM of the chart. 👀 #akleg
The Saturday Charts| Each Saturday, we compare current FY gross oil revs v. DOR's most recent (NOW SPRING25) F'cast. W/ 33% of FY26 booked, projected annual gross revs (blue) running ⬇️ 1% v Spring25 F'cast rev. Projected FY26 WAVG currently $66. #akleg
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November 22, 2025 at 7:00 PM
The Saturday Charts| Each Saturday, we compare current FY gross oil revs v. DOR's most recent (NOW SPRING25) F'cast. W/ 33% of FY26 booked, projected annual gross revs (blue) running ⬇️ 1% v Spring25 F'cast rev. Projected FY26 WAVG currently $66. #akleg
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The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg
* 5-yr: S&P 13.17% v PFC 9.54%
* 3-yr: S&P 18.68% v PFC 10.41%
* 1-yr: S&P 11.00% v PFC 10.10%
* 5-yr: S&P 13.17% v PFC 9.54%
* 3-yr: S&P 18.68% v PFC 10.41%
* 1-yr: S&P 11.00% v PFC 10.10%
November 22, 2025 at 5:35 PM
The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING25 rev F'cast:
> FY26 ⬆️ $1 (+$48mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬇️ $4 (-$144mil)
> FY28-32 even (avg annual $0mil)
#akleg
> FY26 ⬆️ $1 (+$48mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬇️ $4 (-$144mil)
> FY28-32 even (avg annual $0mil)
#akleg
November 22, 2025 at 5:30 PM
The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING25 rev F'cast:
> FY26 ⬆️ $1 (+$48mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬇️ $4 (-$144mil)
> FY28-32 even (avg annual $0mil)
#akleg
> FY26 ⬆️ $1 (+$48mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬇️ $4 (-$144mil)
> FY28-32 even (avg annual $0mil)
#akleg
This Week's Friday Column| While some think it's been strong, on a real basis, the Alaska economy has achieved little more than anemic growth over the past quarter-century. Shockingly, household income hasn't even done that. #akleg buff.ly/kgVL1J8
November 22, 2025 at 4:00 PM
This Week's Friday Column| While some think it's been strong, on a real basis, the Alaska economy has achieved little more than anemic growth over the past quarter-century. Shockingly, household income hasn't even done that. #akleg buff.ly/kgVL1J8
The Friday P.M. "Goldilocks" Charts| We publish five charts Fri afternoons showing the impact of current futures $$oil on Alaska's fiscal outlook and three alternatives for resolving it. (Background: bit.ly/3UhbLCZ) #akleg
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Brad Keithley’s chart of the week: The new "Goldilocks" charts
Some readers will know that in addition to these weekly columns, we also regularly produce a series of daily charts focused on various aspects of Alaska oil, gas, and fiscal issues. We call one set…
bit.ly
November 21, 2025 at 10:01 PM
The Friday P.M. "Goldilocks" Charts| We publish five charts Fri afternoons showing the impact of current futures $$oil on Alaska's fiscal outlook and three alternatives for resolving it. (Background: bit.ly/3UhbLCZ) #akleg
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ICYMI. This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| The K-12 Task Force needs to address revenues, the #AKfiscal debate sounds like two kids fighting: it's your fault, no, it's your fault & the pre-session legislator/local meetings should be two-way. #akleg buff.ly/pJk2mO7
The Weekly Top 3 (11.17.2025)
The K-12 Task Force needs to address revenues, the #AKfiscal debate sounds like two kids fighting: it's your fault, no, it's your fault & the pre-session legislator/local meetings should be two-way
bgkeithley.substack.com
November 21, 2025 at 8:30 PM
ICYMI. This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| The K-12 Task Force needs to address revenues, the #AKfiscal debate sounds like two kids fighting: it's your fault, no, it's your fault & the pre-session legislator/local meetings should be two-way. #akleg buff.ly/pJk2mO7
The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg
* 5-yr: S&P 12.95% v PFC 9.54%
* 3-yr: S&P 18.14% v PFC 10.41%
* 1-yr: S&P 10.51% v PFC 10.10%
* 5-yr: S&P 12.95% v PFC 9.54%
* 3-yr: S&P 18.14% v PFC 10.41%
* 1-yr: S&P 10.51% v PFC 10.10%
November 21, 2025 at 5:35 PM
The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING25 rev F'cast:
> FY26 ⬆️ $1 (+$73mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬇️ $4 (-$144mil)
> FY28-32 even (avg annual $0mil)
#akleg
> FY26 ⬆️ $1 (+$73mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬇️ $4 (-$144mil)
> FY28-32 even (avg annual $0mil)
#akleg
November 21, 2025 at 5:30 PM
The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING25 rev F'cast:
> FY26 ⬆️ $1 (+$73mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬇️ $4 (-$144mil)
> FY28-32 even (avg annual $0mil)
#akleg
> FY26 ⬆️ $1 (+$73mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬇️ $4 (-$144mil)
> FY28-32 even (avg annual $0mil)
#akleg
The Friday A.M. Charts| We publish 2 charts Friday mornings. #akleg
First, we chart YTD $$oil + the outlook from the current futures mkt v. DOR's most recent 10-year rev f'cast. Futures: near (⬇️ $3), mid (even) & long-term (even) v. SPRING25 F'cast (rev).
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First, we chart YTD $$oil + the outlook from the current futures mkt v. DOR's most recent 10-year rev f'cast. Futures: near (⬇️ $3), mid (even) & long-term (even) v. SPRING25 F'cast (rev).
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November 21, 2025 at 4:00 PM
The Friday A.M. Charts| We publish 2 charts Friday mornings. #akleg
First, we chart YTD $$oil + the outlook from the current futures mkt v. DOR's most recent 10-year rev f'cast. Futures: near (⬇️ $3), mid (even) & long-term (even) v. SPRING25 F'cast (rev).
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First, we chart YTD $$oil + the outlook from the current futures mkt v. DOR's most recent 10-year rev f'cast. Futures: near (⬇️ $3), mid (even) & long-term (even) v. SPRING25 F'cast (rev).
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This Week's Friday Column| What if Alaska legislators could develop a revenue approach that shielded them + their donors from paying for state govt costs by shifting them instead to middle & lower-income families? It's already happened. #akleg
The Friday column: The appearance of self-dealing
We look at the impact of using PFD cuts on the average household and legislators from each #akleg district. It's not too strong to say the results raise the appearance of legislative self-dealing.
buff.ly
November 20, 2025 at 10:00 PM
This Week's Friday Column| What if Alaska legislators could develop a revenue approach that shielded them + their donors from paying for state govt costs by shifting them instead to middle & lower-income families? It's already happened. #akleg
his Wk's Top 3 P'cast| The K-12 Task Force needs to address revenues, the #AKfiscal debate sounds like two kids fighting: it's your fault, no, it's your fault & the pre-session legislator/local meetings should be two-way. #akleg
The Weekly Top 3 (11.17.2025)
The K-12 Task Force needs to address revenues, the #AKfiscal debate sounds like two kids fighting: it's your fault, no, it's your fault & the pre-session legislator/local meetings should be two-way
buff.ly
November 20, 2025 at 7:02 PM
The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg
* 5-yr: S&P 13.15% v PFC 9.54%
* 3-yr: S&P 18.76% v PFC 10.41%
* 1-yr: S&P 12.26% v PFC 10.10%
* 5-yr: S&P 13.15% v PFC 9.54%
* 3-yr: S&P 18.76% v PFC 10.41%
* 1-yr: S&P 12.26% v PFC 10.10%
November 20, 2025 at 5:35 PM
The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING25 rev F'cast:
> FY26 ⬆️ $2 (+$96mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬇️ $3 (-$108mil)
> FY28-32 even (avg annual $0mil)
#akleg
> FY26 ⬆️ $2 (+$96mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬇️ $3 (-$108mil)
> FY28-32 even (avg annual $0mil)
#akleg
November 20, 2025 at 5:30 PM
The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING25 rev F'cast:
> FY26 ⬆️ $2 (+$96mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬇️ $3 (-$108mil)
> FY28-32 even (avg annual $0mil)
#akleg
> FY26 ⬆️ $2 (+$96mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬇️ $3 (-$108mil)
> FY28-32 even (avg annual $0mil)
#akleg
The Thursday Charts| We publish two charts Thursdays. #akleg
Using the prior yr's production profile as a baseline, the first charts YTD production levels compared w/the most recent F'cast (now SPRING25). W/39% of FY26 done, YTD avg (red) running -15kbd (-3%) v. F'cast.
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Using the prior yr's production profile as a baseline, the first charts YTD production levels compared w/the most recent F'cast (now SPRING25). W/39% of FY26 done, YTD avg (red) running -15kbd (-3%) v. F'cast.
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November 20, 2025 at 4:02 PM
The Thursday Charts| We publish two charts Thursdays. #akleg
Using the prior yr's production profile as a baseline, the first charts YTD production levels compared w/the most recent F'cast (now SPRING25). W/39% of FY26 done, YTD avg (red) running -15kbd (-3%) v. F'cast.
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Using the prior yr's production profile as a baseline, the first charts YTD production levels compared w/the most recent F'cast (now SPRING25). W/39% of FY26 done, YTD avg (red) running -15kbd (-3%) v. F'cast.
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The Wednesday Chart| To help better understand the primary market for ANS, we look at the supply to USWC refiners each Wed:
YTD 2025 avg USWC (approx % of pre (2019)- and post (2022)-COVID levels):
> Crude demand: 85% & 94%;
> Domestic share: 76% & 88%.
#akleg
YTD 2025 avg USWC (approx % of pre (2019)- and post (2022)-COVID levels):
> Crude demand: 85% & 94%;
> Domestic share: 76% & 88%.
#akleg
November 19, 2025 at 10:01 PM
The Wednesday Chart| To help better understand the primary market for ANS, we look at the supply to USWC refiners each Wed:
YTD 2025 avg USWC (approx % of pre (2019)- and post (2022)-COVID levels):
> Crude demand: 85% & 94%;
> Domestic share: 76% & 88%.
#akleg
YTD 2025 avg USWC (approx % of pre (2019)- and post (2022)-COVID levels):
> Crude demand: 85% & 94%;
> Domestic share: 76% & 88%.
#akleg
This Week's Friday Column| What if Alaska legislators could develop a revenue approach that shielded them + their donors from paying for state govt costs by shifting them instead to middle & lower-income families? It's already happened. #akleg
The Friday column: The appearance of self-dealing
We look at the impact of using PFD cuts on the average household and legislators from each #akleg district. It's not too strong to say the results raise the appearance of legislative self-dealing.
buff.ly
November 19, 2025 at 8:30 PM
This Week's Friday Column| What if Alaska legislators could develop a revenue approach that shielded them + their donors from paying for state govt costs by shifting them instead to middle & lower-income families? It's already happened. #akleg
PFD Estimates| Monthly, as information becomes available, we post the most recent projections of gross PFD levels over the current forecast period under 5 alternatives: statutory, POMV 50/50, POMV 33/67, POMV 25/75, and "Leftover." #akleg
November 19, 2025 at 7:15 PM
PFD Estimates| Monthly, as information becomes available, we post the most recent projections of gross PFD levels over the current forecast period under 5 alternatives: statutory, POMV 50/50, POMV 33/67, POMV 25/75, and "Leftover." #akleg
Investment Charts| We publish the following five charts monthly after the APFC financial statements are posted. All are current through September 2025. #akleg
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Brad Keithley’s Chart of the Week: Updating some monthly charts on the Permanent Fund
As regular followers of our Facebook, LinkedIn, X (formerly Twitter), and Bluesky pages will know, monthly, as information becomes available, we regularly publish a series of charts looking at the…
bit.ly
November 19, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Investment Charts| We publish the following five charts monthly after the APFC financial statements are posted. All are current through September 2025. #akleg
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The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg
* 5-yr: S&P 13.15% v PFC 9.54%
* 3-yr: S&P 18.61% v PFC 10.41%
* 1-yr: S&P 12.28% v PFC 10.10%
* 5-yr: S&P 13.15% v PFC 9.54%
* 3-yr: S&P 18.61% v PFC 10.41%
* 1-yr: S&P 12.28% v PFC 10.10%
November 19, 2025 at 5:35 PM
The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING25 rev F'cast:
> FY26 ⬆️ $2 (+$133mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬇️ $2 (-$72mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $1 (avg annual +$36mil)
#akleg
> FY26 ⬆️ $2 (+$133mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬇️ $2 (-$72mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $1 (avg annual +$36mil)
#akleg
November 19, 2025 at 5:30 PM
The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING25 rev F'cast:
> FY26 ⬆️ $2 (+$133mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬇️ $2 (-$72mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $1 (avg annual +$36mil)
#akleg
> FY26 ⬆️ $2 (+$133mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬇️ $2 (-$72mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $1 (avg annual +$36mil)
#akleg
This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| The K-12 Task Force needs to address revenues, the #AKfiscal debate sounds like two kids fighting: it's your fault, no, it's your fault & the pre-session legislator/local meetings should be two-way. #akleg buff.ly/pJk2mO7
November 19, 2025 at 4:00 PM
This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| The K-12 Task Force needs to address revenues, the #AKfiscal debate sounds like two kids fighting: it's your fault, no, it's your fault & the pre-session legislator/local meetings should be two-way. #akleg buff.ly/pJk2mO7