Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets
@ak4sb.bsky.social
A non-partisan project focused on helping develop and advocate for responsible state and federal fiscal policies.
This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| The Governor's proposed fiscal plan, how far along is #AKLNG really & rather than patting their own back, the PFC Board should be focused on generating the earnings levels the Fund should be achieving. #akleg buff.ly/dEsqHFd
January 27, 2026 at 11:30 PM
This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| The Governor's proposed fiscal plan, how far along is #AKLNG really & rather than patting their own back, the PFC Board should be focused on generating the earnings levels the Fund should be achieving. #akleg buff.ly/dEsqHFd
This Week's Column| Building on reporting on what is likely included in Governor Dunleavy's proposed fiscal plan, in this week's column, we provide some initial thoughts on its potential impact. #akleg buff.ly/Vhgc8oC
January 27, 2026 at 8:30 PM
This Week's Column| Building on reporting on what is likely included in Governor Dunleavy's proposed fiscal plan, in this week's column, we provide some initial thoughts on its potential impact. #akleg buff.ly/Vhgc8oC
As we've explained elsewhere, merging the two Permanent Fund accounts without add'l protections creates a back door into the PF corpus. All that LeBon and others are trying to do is "protect the #akleg spend" rather than protect the PF corpus. #PFRaiders buff.ly/g2Ia3it
January 27, 2026 at 7:00 PM
As we've explained elsewhere, merging the two Permanent Fund accounts without add'l protections creates a back door into the PF corpus. All that LeBon and others are trying to do is "protect the #akleg spend" rather than protect the PF corpus. #PFRaiders buff.ly/g2Ia3it
The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg
* 5-yr: S&P 12.54% v PFC 8.34%
* 3-yr: S&P 19.62% v PFC 8.71%
* 1-yr: S&P 13.92% v PFC 9.90%
* 5-yr: S&P 12.54% v PFC 8.34%
* 3-yr: S&P 19.62% v PFC 8.71%
* 1-yr: S&P 13.92% v PFC 9.90%
January 27, 2026 at 5:35 PM
The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. FALL25 rev F'cast:
> FY26 ⬆️ $1 (+$18mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $3 (+$78mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $1 (avg annual +$26mil)
#akleg
> FY26 ⬆️ $1 (+$18mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $3 (+$78mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $1 (avg annual +$26mil)
#akleg
January 27, 2026 at 5:30 PM
The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. FALL25 rev F'cast:
> FY26 ⬆️ $1 (+$18mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $3 (+$78mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $1 (avg annual +$26mil)
#akleg
> FY26 ⬆️ $1 (+$18mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $3 (+$78mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $1 (avg annual +$26mil)
#akleg
This Wk's Top 3| Dunleavy's fiscal plan, how far along really is #AKLNG & the Permanent Fund Board members pat themselves on the back, but should they be? #akleg
T'row, 6:05a on the Michael Dukes Show at buff.ly/apdhFPi
T'row, 6:05a on the Michael Dukes Show at buff.ly/apdhFPi
January 26, 2026 at 11:30 PM
This Wk's Top 3| Dunleavy's fiscal plan, how far along really is #AKLNG & the Permanent Fund Board members pat themselves on the back, but should they be? #akleg
T'row, 6:05a on the Michael Dukes Show at buff.ly/apdhFPi
T'row, 6:05a on the Michael Dukes Show at buff.ly/apdhFPi
This Week's Column| Building on reporting on what is likely included in Governor Dunleavy's proposed fiscal plan, in this week's column, we provide some initial thoughts on its potential impact. #akleg buff.ly/Vhgc8oC
January 26, 2026 at 8:30 PM
This Week's Column| Building on reporting on what is likely included in Governor Dunleavy's proposed fiscal plan, in this week's column, we provide some initial thoughts on its potential impact. #akleg buff.ly/Vhgc8oC
🤦♂️ Yup, production going up, but, excuse us, state revenue from production going DOWN. Why the heck are these people celebrating?? #akleg buff.ly/769N86E
January 26, 2026 at 7:00 PM
🤦♂️ Yup, production going up, but, excuse us, state revenue from production going DOWN. Why the heck are these people celebrating?? #akleg buff.ly/769N86E
The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg
* 5-yr: S&P 12.48% v PFC 8.34%
* 3-yr: S&P 19.82% v PFC 8.71%
* 1-yr: S&P 13.02% v PFC 9.90%
* 5-yr: S&P 12.48% v PFC 8.34%
* 3-yr: S&P 19.82% v PFC 8.71%
* 1-yr: S&P 13.02% v PFC 9.90%
January 26, 2026 at 5:35 PM
The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. FALL25 rev F'cast:
> FY26 ⬆️ $1 (+$21mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $3 (+$78mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $1 (avg annual +$26mil)
#akleg
> FY26 ⬆️ $1 (+$21mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $3 (+$78mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $1 (avg annual +$26mil)
#akleg
January 26, 2026 at 5:30 PM
The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. FALL25 rev F'cast:
> FY26 ⬆️ $1 (+$21mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $3 (+$78mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $1 (avg annual +$26mil)
#akleg
> FY26 ⬆️ $1 (+$21mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $3 (+$78mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $1 (avg annual +$26mil)
#akleg
The Monday Chart| To put Alaska's in-state gas prices in global context, once wkly we compare Enstar's current Gas Cost Adjustment v. global markers. 2025-26 Enstar price is 8% ⬇️ Asia, 175% ⬆️ L48. 5yr forward avg, Enstar 19% ⬆️ Asia, 183% ⬆️ L48. #akleg
1/2
1/2
January 26, 2026 at 4:00 PM
The Monday Chart| To put Alaska's in-state gas prices in global context, once wkly we compare Enstar's current Gas Cost Adjustment v. global markers. 2025-26 Enstar price is 8% ⬇️ Asia, 175% ⬆️ L48. 5yr forward avg, Enstar 19% ⬆️ Asia, 183% ⬆️ L48. #akleg
1/2
1/2
This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| What we are looking for in the Governor's fiscal plan, the significance of the missing paragraph in Jansen & Schierhorn's latest "don't change SB21" op-ed & our thoughts on constructing a spending cap. #akleg buff.ly/MMyPJGZ
January 25, 2026 at 10:00 PM
This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| What we are looking for in the Governor's fiscal plan, the significance of the missing paragraph in Jansen & Schierhorn's latest "don't change SB21" op-ed & our thoughts on constructing a spending cap. #akleg buff.ly/MMyPJGZ
This Week's Column| Building on reporting on what is likely included in Governor Dunleavy's proposed fiscal plan, in this week's column, we provide some initial thoughts on its potential impact. #akleg buff.ly/Vhgc8oC
January 25, 2026 at 8:30 PM
This Week's Column| Building on reporting on what is likely included in Governor Dunleavy's proposed fiscal plan, in this week's column, we provide some initial thoughts on its potential impact. #akleg buff.ly/Vhgc8oC
Here's why the #akleg majorities & others push PFDcuts to fund govt. It's because, as part of the upper-income bracket, they are free-riders on the resulting costs and can keep the spending going without themselves or their donors having to contribute. buff.ly/nGW2bT9
Brad Keithley’s Chart of the Week: Saying the quiet part out loud
We were going to write about something else this week, but well-known politico Scott Kendall said something during a Twitter exchange Wednesday that needs some timely attention. The exchange…
alaskalandmine.com
January 25, 2026 at 7:00 PM
Here's why the #akleg majorities & others push PFDcuts to fund govt. It's because, as part of the upper-income bracket, they are free-riders on the resulting costs and can keep the spending going without themselves or their donors having to contribute. buff.ly/nGW2bT9
The Sunday Financial Charts| To help better understand the overall financial environment, weekly we track current + projected inflation & interest rates. #akleg
1/4
1/4
January 25, 2026 at 5:30 PM
The Sunday Financial Charts| To help better understand the overall financial environment, weekly we track current + projected inflation & interest rates. #akleg
1/4
1/4
The Sunday Chart| To help assess the ANS market, wkly we review the status of the ANS tanker fleet. Notes: No MPC in service. #akleg
* Deliveries month to date: 15.5
* Not in ANS service: 0
* Asia: 0
* USWC: 10 (5 CP, 3 HIL, 2 XOM) in runs
* Deliveries month to date: 15.5
* Not in ANS service: 0
* Asia: 0
* USWC: 10 (5 CP, 3 HIL, 2 XOM) in runs
January 25, 2026 at 4:00 PM
The Sunday Chart| To help assess the ANS market, wkly we review the status of the ANS tanker fleet. Notes: No MPC in service. #akleg
* Deliveries month to date: 15.5
* Not in ANS service: 0
* Asia: 0
* USWC: 10 (5 CP, 3 HIL, 2 XOM) in runs
* Deliveries month to date: 15.5
* Not in ANS service: 0
* Asia: 0
* USWC: 10 (5 CP, 3 HIL, 2 XOM) in runs
This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| What we are looking for in the Governor's fiscal plan, the significance of the missing paragraph in Jansen & Schierhorn's latest "don't change SB21" op-ed & our thoughts on constructing a spending cap. #akleg buff.ly/MMyPJGZ
January 24, 2026 at 11:30 PM
This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| What we are looking for in the Governor's fiscal plan, the significance of the missing paragraph in Jansen & Schierhorn's latest "don't change SB21" op-ed & our thoughts on constructing a spending cap. #akleg buff.ly/MMyPJGZ
The Rolling 4-Wk Avgs| To provide perspective on $$ANS trends as well as the relationship b/w ANS & other reference prices, wkly we chart the 4-wk avg & differentials. Current ANS 4-wk avg $63, ahead of both Brent ($.44) and Brent/WTI avg ($2.49). #akleg
January 24, 2026 at 10:00 PM
The Rolling 4-Wk Avgs| To provide perspective on $$ANS trends as well as the relationship b/w ANS & other reference prices, wkly we chart the 4-wk avg & differentials. Current ANS 4-wk avg $63, ahead of both Brent ($.44) and Brent/WTI avg ($2.49). #akleg
This Week's Column| Building on reporting on what is likely included in Governor Dunleavy's proposed fiscal plan, in this week's column, we provide some initial thoughts on its potential impact. #akleg buff.ly/Vhgc8oC
The Friday column: Our initial reactions to Governor Dunleavy’s [maybe] proposed fiscal plan
Building on reporting on what is likely included in Governor Dunleavy's proposed fiscal plan, in this week's column, we provide some initial thoughts on its potential impact
bgkeithley.substack.com
January 24, 2026 at 8:30 PM
This Week's Column| Building on reporting on what is likely included in Governor Dunleavy's proposed fiscal plan, in this week's column, we provide some initial thoughts on its potential impact. #akleg buff.ly/Vhgc8oC
If ever built, substantially all of the #AKLNG volumes will be exported. Dunleavy & those #akleg that support this proposal are just taking $$ out of Alaskans' pockets to benefit foreign purchasers. Why?
Dunleavy to propose lower property tax to support LNG megaproject
One borough mayor said he didn’t see how such a low tax could pass. Lawmakers have raised concerns about a quick resolution.
buff.ly
January 24, 2026 at 7:00 PM
The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg
* 5-yr: S&P 12.48% v PFC 8.34%
* 3-yr: S&P 19.82% v PFC 8.71%
* 1-yr: S&P 13.02% v PFC 9.90%
* 5-yr: S&P 12.48% v PFC 8.34%
* 3-yr: S&P 19.82% v PFC 8.71%
* 1-yr: S&P 13.02% v PFC 9.90%
January 24, 2026 at 5:35 PM
The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. FALL25 rev F'cast:
> FY26 ⬆️ $1 (+$21mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $2 (+$52mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $1 (avg annual +$26mil)
#akleg
> FY26 ⬆️ $1 (+$21mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $2 (+$52mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $1 (avg annual +$26mil)
#akleg
January 24, 2026 at 5:30 PM
The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. FALL25 rev F'cast:
> FY26 ⬆️ $1 (+$21mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $2 (+$52mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $1 (avg annual +$26mil)
#akleg
> FY26 ⬆️ $1 (+$21mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $2 (+$52mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $1 (avg annual +$26mil)
#akleg
The Saturday Charts| Each Saturday, we compare current FY gross oil revs v. DOR's most recent (NOW FALL25) F'cast. W/ 56% of FY26 booked, projected annual gross revs (blue) running even w/ Fall 25 F'cast. Projected FY26 WAVG currently $66. #akleg
1/2
1/2
January 24, 2026 at 4:00 PM
The Saturday Charts| Each Saturday, we compare current FY gross oil revs v. DOR's most recent (NOW FALL25) F'cast. W/ 56% of FY26 booked, projected annual gross revs (blue) running even w/ Fall 25 F'cast. Projected FY26 WAVG currently $66. #akleg
1/2
1/2
This Week's Column| Building on reporting on what is likely included in Governor Dunleavy's proposed fiscal plan, in this week's column, we provide some initial thoughts on its potential impact. #akleg buff.ly/Vhgc8oC
The Friday column: Our initial reactions to Governor Dunleavy’s [maybe] proposed fiscal plan
Building on reporting on what is likely included in Governor Dunleavy's proposed fiscal plan, in this week's column, we provide some initial thoughts on its potential impact
bgkeithley.substack.com
January 24, 2026 at 1:57 AM
This Week's Column| Building on reporting on what is likely included in Governor Dunleavy's proposed fiscal plan, in this week's column, we provide some initial thoughts on its potential impact. #akleg buff.ly/Vhgc8oC