Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets
@ak4sb.bsky.social
A non-partisan project focused on helping develop and advocate for responsible state and federal fiscal policies.
Building on that, we publish a second chart tracking the impact of the revs generated at current projected oil price levels against the FY26 waterfall. At projected price, production & spending levels, projected revs are $50mil ⬇️ breakeven.
2/end
2/end
November 22, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Building on that, we publish a second chart tracking the impact of the revs generated at current projected oil price levels against the FY26 waterfall. At projected price, production & spending levels, projected revs are $50mil ⬇️ breakeven.
2/end
2/end
... taking more from 80% of #AKfams than the first approach.
As a measure of regressivity, at current deficit levels, the second approach (POMV 50/50) takes 2x more from the Low20% than the Top1%; the third approach (POMV 25/75) takes 11x more, and the fourth approach takes 36x more.
6/end
As a measure of regressivity, at current deficit levels, the second approach (POMV 50/50) takes 2x more from the Low20% than the Top1%; the third approach (POMV 25/75) takes 11x more, and the fourth approach takes 36x more.
6/end
November 21, 2025 at 10:01 PM
... taking more from 80% of #AKfams than the first approach.
As a measure of regressivity, at current deficit levels, the second approach (POMV 50/50) takes 2x more from the Low20% than the Top1%; the third approach (POMV 25/75) takes 11x more, and the fourth approach takes 36x more.
6/end
As a measure of regressivity, at current deficit levels, the second approach (POMV 50/50) takes 2x more from the Low20% than the Top1%; the third approach (POMV 25/75) takes 11x more, and the fourth approach takes 36x more.
6/end
* Abandoning a rules-based PFD and using the "leftover" PFD approach (which reduces the PFD over the period to 14% of the POMV draw).
As the charts demonstrate, the first approach spreads the burden proportionately among all #AKfams. The second, third & fourth are increasingly regressive ...
5/6
As the charts demonstrate, the first approach spreads the burden proportionately among all #AKfams. The second, third & fourth are increasingly regressive ...
5/6
November 21, 2025 at 10:01 PM
* Abandoning a rules-based PFD and using the "leftover" PFD approach (which reduces the PFD over the period to 14% of the POMV draw).
As the charts demonstrate, the first approach spreads the burden proportionately among all #AKfams. The second, third & fourth are increasingly regressive ...
5/6
As the charts demonstrate, the first approach spreads the burden proportionately among all #AKfams. The second, third & fourth are increasingly regressive ...
5/6
* Restructuring the PFD as POMV 50/50, w/ the remaining deficit filled through a flat tax,
* Restructuring the PFD as POMV 25/75, w/ the additional deficit (above POMV 25/75) filled through a flat tax,
4/6
* Restructuring the PFD as POMV 25/75, w/ the additional deficit (above POMV 25/75) filled through a flat tax,
4/6
November 21, 2025 at 10:01 PM
* Restructuring the PFD as POMV 50/50, w/ the remaining deficit filled through a flat tax,
* Restructuring the PFD as POMV 25/75, w/ the additional deficit (above POMV 25/75) filled through a flat tax,
4/6
* Restructuring the PFD as POMV 25/75, w/ the additional deficit (above POMV 25/75) filled through a flat tax,
4/6
... (32% of the UGF budget, ~4.8% of Alaska AGI, ~3.0% of Alaska Private Sector GDP).
𝙎𝙚𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙙, we then look at four ways of closing the deficit.
* Retaining the current law PFD and using a flat tax to close the deficit instead,
3/6
𝙎𝙚𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙙, we then look at four ways of closing the deficit.
* Retaining the current law PFD and using a flat tax to close the deficit instead,
3/6
November 21, 2025 at 10:01 PM
... (32% of the UGF budget, ~4.8% of Alaska AGI, ~3.0% of Alaska Private Sector GDP).
𝙎𝙚𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙙, we then look at four ways of closing the deficit.
* Retaining the current law PFD and using a flat tax to close the deficit instead,
3/6
𝙎𝙚𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙙, we then look at four ways of closing the deficit.
* Retaining the current law PFD and using a flat tax to close the deficit instead,
3/6
𝙁𝙞𝙧𝙨𝙩, we update the 10-year outlook for the most recent $$oil futures prices and other updated information (now using the #AKGov's enacted budget for spending levels). Currently, the state is running an average annual 𝙙𝙚𝙛𝙞𝙘𝙞𝙩 over the next 10-year period of $2.02 billion ...
2/6
2/6
November 21, 2025 at 10:01 PM
𝙁𝙞𝙧𝙨𝙩, we update the 10-year outlook for the most recent $$oil futures prices and other updated information (now using the #AKGov's enacted budget for spending levels). Currently, the state is running an average annual 𝙙𝙚𝙛𝙞𝙘𝙞𝙩 over the next 10-year period of $2.02 billion ...
2/6
2/6
Second, we chart revenues derived from that same market strip against those projected in the same 10-year rev f'cast. Projected FY26 ⬆️ $1 (+$73mil UGF), FY26-35 avg $67 ($2.49B avg UGF, ⬆️ $10mil v SPRING25 F'cast rev).
2/end
2/end
November 21, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Second, we chart revenues derived from that same market strip against those projected in the same 10-year rev f'cast. Projected FY26 ⬆️ $1 (+$73mil UGF), FY26-35 avg $67 ($2.49B avg UGF, ⬆️ $10mil v SPRING25 F'cast rev).
2/end
2/end
Looking at the same data, the second calculates the avg production required over the remainder of the FY to meet F'cast. With 63% of FY26 remaining, the avg level needed over the rest to meet the FY26 F'cast is 483kbd, 6% above current month levels.
2/end
2/end
November 20, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Looking at the same data, the second calculates the avg production required over the remainder of the FY to meet F'cast. With 63% of FY26 remaining, the avg level needed over the rest to meet the FY26 F'cast is 483kbd, 6% above current month levels.
2/end
2/end