Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
@bradhumphreys.bsky.social
Economist. "He's an impediment to Civic Progress" - Patrick La Forge, Edmonton Oilers President
https://bradhumphreys.faculty.wvu.edu/home
https://bradhumphreys.faculty.wvu.edu/home
What a stupid policy.
November 17, 2025 at 6:57 PM
What a stupid policy.
Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
Ungated link the paper: authors.elsevier.com/c/1m5S53IvSG...
November 14, 2025 at 12:28 AM
Ungated link the paper: authors.elsevier.com/c/1m5S53IvSG...
Now available in Labour Economics: "The effects of negative labor market conditions at entry: Evidence from the 2004–05 NHL lockout" by me and @chengyuanhua.bsky.social
November 13, 2025 at 6:42 PM
Now available in Labour Economics: "The effects of negative labor market conditions at entry: Evidence from the 2004–05 NHL lockout" by me and @chengyuanhua.bsky.social
This is worth a read.
I went deeper into the at-bats where Luis Ortiz is accused of throwing balls on purpose.
1) These pitches didn't just compromise games. They helped flip them. Twice.
2) It's the player props, man
3) This is NOT a case where legal sports betting improved the situation slate.com/technology/2...
1) These pitches didn't just compromise games. They helped flip them. Twice.
2) It's the player props, man
3) This is NOT a case where legal sports betting improved the situation slate.com/technology/2...
A Huge Scandal Is Rocking Baseball. Here’s What Needs to Change.
The indictments of two major league pitchers are just the clearest examples yet of the scourge of the prop bet.
slate.com
November 11, 2025 at 10:54 PM
This is worth a read.
Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
12 years ago today, the Atlanta Braves announced it was abandoning Turner Field and moving to Cobb.
November 11, 2025 at 2:42 PM
12 years ago today, the Atlanta Braves announced it was abandoning Turner Field and moving to Cobb.
Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
If anyone has a job market paper they would like me to repost, tag me and I will do my best to do so! Would love to follow what people are working on more closely.
November 10, 2025 at 10:54 PM
If anyone has a job market paper they would like me to repost, tag me and I will do my best to do so! Would love to follow what people are working on more closely.
Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
This MLB indictment is incredible. It alleges, among many other things, that a star Cleveland pitcher was placing bets *during a game* that a pitch he was about to throw would be a ball, and it would be under 98 mph.
www.justice.gov/usao-edny/me...
www.justice.gov/usao-edny/me...
November 9, 2025 at 9:20 PM
This MLB indictment is incredible. It alleges, among many other things, that a star Cleveland pitcher was placing bets *during a game* that a pitch he was about to throw would be a ball, and it would be under 98 mph.
www.justice.gov/usao-edny/me...
www.justice.gov/usao-edny/me...
Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
Since 1980 among passing sports referenda:
-9th smallest margin of victory (4.2%, mean = 19.5%)
-4th smallest turnout (19%, mean = 41%)
-no stat diff btwn strong and weak R precincts
-wealth diffs drove the margin. Precincts above med home value supported on avg 52% compared to those below at 47%.
-9th smallest margin of victory (4.2%, mean = 19.5%)
-4th smallest turnout (19%, mean = 41%)
-no stat diff btwn strong and weak R precincts
-wealth diffs drove the margin. Precincts above med home value supported on avg 52% compared to those below at 47%.
November 5, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Since 1980 among passing sports referenda:
-9th smallest margin of victory (4.2%, mean = 19.5%)
-4th smallest turnout (19%, mean = 41%)
-no stat diff btwn strong and weak R precincts
-wealth diffs drove the margin. Precincts above med home value supported on avg 52% compared to those below at 47%.
-9th smallest margin of victory (4.2%, mean = 19.5%)
-4th smallest turnout (19%, mean = 41%)
-no stat diff btwn strong and weak R precincts
-wealth diffs drove the margin. Precincts above med home value supported on avg 52% compared to those below at 47%.
Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
Also the speed of desk rejections at some top journals.
The speed of light visualized on a world map.
Credit: Dr James O'Donoghue
Credit: Dr James O'Donoghue
November 5, 2025 at 2:43 PM
Also the speed of desk rejections at some top journals.
Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
Time to add another publicly subsidized arena to the database. I'm sure *this one will be different.*
www.expressnews.com/news/article...
www.expressnews.com/news/article...
Bexar County voters approve downtown San Antonio basketball arena
About 52% of Bexar County voters approved devoting up to $311 million in county tax dollars to help pay for a new $1.3 billion Spurs arena to be built at Hemisfair.
www.expressnews.com
November 5, 2025 at 12:10 PM
Time to add another publicly subsidized arena to the database. I'm sure *this one will be different.*
www.expressnews.com/news/article...
www.expressnews.com/news/article...
Ah yes, Halloween in Edmonton.
On Halloween Edmonton's average High is 5°C, and the average Low is -3.2°C.
But Halloween 1984 scared and scarred a generation of kids with a High of -17.7°C, and a Low of -23.7°C.
1991 & 2003 were also unusually cold, but nothing like that.
#yegwx #yeg
public.tableau.com/shared/2G4C7...
But Halloween 1984 scared and scarred a generation of kids with a High of -17.7°C, and a Low of -23.7°C.
1991 & 2003 were also unusually cold, but nothing like that.
#yegwx #yeg
public.tableau.com/shared/2G4C7...
October 31, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Ah yes, Halloween in Edmonton.
This is the most French thing I have ever read
October 31, 2025 at 1:36 PM
This is the most French thing I have ever read
Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
Now available on-line at Economics and Human Biology: "The impact of health shocks on worker performance: Evidence from Major League Baseball." Joint work with Yulia Chikish
Link to ungated version: authors.elsevier.com/a/1l-nQ,Zjej...
Link to ungated version: authors.elsevier.com/a/1l-nQ,Zjej...
October 27, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Now available on-line at Economics and Human Biology: "The impact of health shocks on worker performance: Evidence from Major League Baseball." Joint work with Yulia Chikish
Link to ungated version: authors.elsevier.com/a/1l-nQ,Zjej...
Link to ungated version: authors.elsevier.com/a/1l-nQ,Zjej...
Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
A good look at the fiscal illusion that hides taxpayer dollars flowing to "private" stadiums. Featuring @victor-matheson.bsky.social and @gpropheter.bsky.social
As stadium boom resumes, ‘private funding’ often comes with public strings
Cities eager to tout privately financed sports stadiums are still spending big through tax breaks, land deals and public financing that shift costs back to taxpayers.
www.smartcitiesdive.com
October 24, 2025 at 9:29 PM
A good look at the fiscal illusion that hides taxpayer dollars flowing to "private" stadiums. Featuring @victor-matheson.bsky.social and @gpropheter.bsky.social
Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
I just got a copy of this paper (pubsonline.informs.org/doi/10.1287/...) which says that NIL has not had any "the rich get richer" effects, but instead has somewhat improved competitive balance.
h/t to @mattbrown.bsky.social for alerting me to this through the Extra Points newsletter
h/t to @mattbrown.bsky.social for alerting me to this through the Extra Points newsletter
October 23, 2025 at 4:41 PM
I just got a copy of this paper (pubsonline.informs.org/doi/10.1287/...) which says that NIL has not had any "the rich get richer" effects, but instead has somewhat improved competitive balance.
h/t to @mattbrown.bsky.social for alerting me to this through the Extra Points newsletter
h/t to @mattbrown.bsky.social for alerting me to this through the Extra Points newsletter
Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
All I know is that it is a lot cheaper to hear me talk about ticket prices on NPR's Morning Edition today than it is to buy tickets to any sporting events nowadays.
www.npr.org/2025/10/23/n...
www.npr.org/2025/10/23/n...
Sports ticket prices are getting more expensive — and pricing out many fans
For sports fans, there's nothing as exciting as going to see your team play. But what was once an affordable form of entertainment is becoming increasingly more expensive and pricing some loyal fans o...
www.npr.org
October 23, 2025 at 3:49 PM
All I know is that it is a lot cheaper to hear me talk about ticket prices on NPR's Morning Edition today than it is to buy tickets to any sporting events nowadays.
www.npr.org/2025/10/23/n...
www.npr.org/2025/10/23/n...
College basketball teams can now sign former G League players and people who played professionally in Europe. The NCAA appears to just be making things up as they go along in this new professionalized environment.
sports.yahoo.com/mens-college...
sports.yahoo.com/mens-college...
Why G League players are being allowed to play college basketball
When did the NCAA begin allowing coaches to scour the G League for recruits? The trend is a byproduct of the NCAA's loosening of amateurism rules due to the House settlement and NIL deals.
sports.yahoo.com
October 23, 2025 at 4:00 PM
College basketball teams can now sign former G League players and people who played professionally in Europe. The NCAA appears to just be making things up as they go along in this new professionalized environment.
sports.yahoo.com/mens-college...
sports.yahoo.com/mens-college...
Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
Worcester should serve as a warning to cities hoping to repay sports project costs with tax revenue from new development (*cough San Antonio*) that there's no guarantee the new housing will get built, plus taxes on new residents aren't a free windfall.
Worcester stadium red ink shows dangers of hoping to cover taxpayer costs with housing magic beans
It's now been more than seven years since the Pawtucket Red Sox owners cut a deal to get $105 million in public cash to move to a new stadium in Worcester, sparking a throwdown between economists Andr...
www.fieldofschemes.com
October 23, 2025 at 1:39 PM
Worcester should serve as a warning to cities hoping to repay sports project costs with tax revenue from new development (*cough San Antonio*) that there's no guarantee the new housing will get built, plus taxes on new residents aren't a free windfall.
Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
Now official: College athletes and school staff can bet on pro sports, beginning on Nov. 1.
All three Divisions have voted to approve the change, per the NCAA.
All three Divisions have voted to approve the change, per the NCAA.
October 22, 2025 at 10:55 PM
Now official: College athletes and school staff can bet on pro sports, beginning on Nov. 1.
All three Divisions have voted to approve the change, per the NCAA.
All three Divisions have voted to approve the change, per the NCAA.
Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
This is getting pathetic. The @ExpressNews editorial board continues to trot out empty pretext justifications for the Spurs arena plan that it has gone dewy-eyed over. When your arguments are this bad, it's time to take a hard look in the mirror.
www.expressnews.com/opinion/edit...
www.expressnews.com/opinion/edit...
Rejecting Spurs arena downtown comes with costs, risks, civic pain
As voters weigh Bexar County Propositions A and B, they should also consider the potential costs of rejecting the Spurs arena.
www.expressnews.com
October 23, 2025 at 11:47 AM
This is getting pathetic. The @ExpressNews editorial board continues to trot out empty pretext justifications for the Spurs arena plan that it has gone dewy-eyed over. When your arguments are this bad, it's time to take a hard look in the mirror.
www.expressnews.com/opinion/edit...
www.expressnews.com/opinion/edit...
Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
News: the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of New York will have a 10 am press conference regarding its investigation of point shaving and performance manipulation in pro basketball. This is separate from the college investigation that is in the Eastern District of Pennsylvania.
October 23, 2025 at 11:33 AM
News: the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of New York will have a 10 am press conference regarding its investigation of point shaving and performance manipulation in pro basketball. This is separate from the college investigation that is in the Eastern District of Pennsylvania.
Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
Whoever wrote this editorial for the @ExpressNews should be embarrassed. If you think 50 years of research demonstrating that publicly funded venues are bad policy doesn't make a "clear and convincing case" then you're not interested in evidence.
www.expressnews.com/opinion/edit...
www.expressnews.com/opinion/edit...
October 20, 2025 at 11:33 PM
Whoever wrote this editorial for the @ExpressNews should be embarrassed. If you think 50 years of research demonstrating that publicly funded venues are bad policy doesn't make a "clear and convincing case" then you're not interested in evidence.
www.expressnews.com/opinion/edit...
www.expressnews.com/opinion/edit...