Geoffrey Propheter
@gpropheter.bsky.social
Associate professor at CUDenver. I study prop tax policy & admin, state & local public finance, land development, and sports facility economics. Punk music. Lots of basketball. George Carlin. Big Trouble in Little China, Clue, Bill&Ted. Sac Kings.
Texas ISDs must itemize ballot measures for sports facility debt. TX ptax debt burden for ISD sports has increased ~x3 since 2006. Do voters behave the same towards pro facilities as high school facilities even tho debt tax security is diff? Here's Spurs vote vs NEISD facility votes. Generally, yes.
November 6, 2025 at 4:20 PM
Texas ISDs must itemize ballot measures for sports facility debt. TX ptax debt burden for ISD sports has increased ~x3 since 2006. Do voters behave the same towards pro facilities as high school facilities even tho debt tax security is diff? Here's Spurs vote vs NEISD facility votes. Generally, yes.
Since 1980 among passing sports referenda:
-9th smallest margin of victory (4.2%, mean = 19.5%)
-4th smallest turnout (19%, mean = 41%)
-no stat diff btwn strong and weak R precincts
-wealth diffs drove the margin. Precincts above med home value supported on avg 52% compared to those below at 47%.
-9th smallest margin of victory (4.2%, mean = 19.5%)
-4th smallest turnout (19%, mean = 41%)
-no stat diff btwn strong and weak R precincts
-wealth diffs drove the margin. Precincts above med home value supported on avg 52% compared to those below at 47%.
November 5, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Since 1980 among passing sports referenda:
-9th smallest margin of victory (4.2%, mean = 19.5%)
-4th smallest turnout (19%, mean = 41%)
-no stat diff btwn strong and weak R precincts
-wealth diffs drove the margin. Precincts above med home value supported on avg 52% compared to those below at 47%.
-9th smallest margin of victory (4.2%, mean = 19.5%)
-4th smallest turnout (19%, mean = 41%)
-no stat diff btwn strong and weak R precincts
-wealth diffs drove the margin. Precincts above med home value supported on avg 52% compared to those below at 47%.
Every time I read something about the Bears' continued effort to get more taxpayer money (and frankly of every NFL team threatening to go somewhere), it reminds me of this 1995 gem from long-time Chicago writer Bernie Lincicome.
www.thestadiumbusiness.com/2025/11/03/c...
www.thestadiumbusiness.com/2025/11/03/c...
November 4, 2025 at 12:42 AM
Every time I read something about the Bears' continued effort to get more taxpayer money (and frankly of every NFL team threatening to go somewhere), it reminds me of this 1995 gem from long-time Chicago writer Bernie Lincicome.
www.thestadiumbusiness.com/2025/11/03/c...
www.thestadiumbusiness.com/2025/11/03/c...
Worth pointing out that the Texas legislature killed HB19 in the spring which would have made it very hard to issue non-voter approved debt for sports facilities. Seems relevant considering city and county taxpayers' increasing debt burdens in SA/Bexar.
sanantonioreport.org/decoding-spu...
sanantonioreport.org/decoding-spu...
October 28, 2025 at 3:22 PM
Worth pointing out that the Texas legislature killed HB19 in the spring which would have made it very hard to issue non-voter approved debt for sports facilities. Seems relevant considering city and county taxpayers' increasing debt burdens in SA/Bexar.
sanantonioreport.org/decoding-spu...
sanantonioreport.org/decoding-spu...
Sharon Kioko (U of Wash) presented a study of yield diffs btwn GO and rev bonds by sector. Lawmakers use rev bonds for stadiums even though they are more expensive than GO. Why are they more expensive? They don’t generate enough revenue consistently. Why do lawmakers use them? To avoid voters.
October 24, 2025 at 8:03 PM
Sharon Kioko (U of Wash) presented a study of yield diffs btwn GO and rev bonds by sector. Lawmakers use rev bonds for stadiums even though they are more expensive than GO. Why are they more expensive? They don’t generate enough revenue consistently. Why do lawmakers use them? To avoid voters.
I cannot recall the last time a major local paper pushed this hard to convince readers to support subsidies. We’re at like, what, one op ed a week rate to convince folks to make tax decisions with their heart rather head from the Express editorial board? www.expressnews.com/opinion/edit...
Rejecting Spurs arena downtown comes with costs, risks, civic pain
As voters weigh Bexar County Propositions A and B, they should also consider the potential costs of rejecting the Spurs arena.
www.expressnews.com
October 24, 2025 at 11:25 AM
I cannot recall the last time a major local paper pushed this hard to convince readers to support subsidies. We’re at like, what, one op ed a week rate to convince folks to make tax decisions with their heart rather head from the Express editorial board? www.expressnews.com/opinion/edit...
What counts as ‘“often” is a judgment call, but the author’s point is correct: a failed referendum rarely means a team leaves. A great unanswered question is whether deals after a failed vote are more lucrative to the team than had the referendum passed. www.sacurrent.com/news/san-ant...
Analysis: Referendums on publicly financed arenas and stadiums often fail the first time around
Hyperbolic handwringing about the Spurs leaving if the Nov. 4 arena vote fails is disingenuous and deceitful.
www.sacurrent.com
October 17, 2025 at 7:55 PM
What counts as ‘“often” is a judgment call, but the author’s point is correct: a failed referendum rarely means a team leaves. A great unanswered question is whether deals after a failed vote are more lucrative to the team than had the referendum passed. www.sacurrent.com/news/san-ant...
Stop using Oakland to justify subsidies. Apparently if the Spurs don't get an arena, San Antonio will turn into Oakland?? So stupid. If San Antonio or any city can't manage their pensions, then yeah, it might turn into Oakland. But not bc of lack of pro sports. www.expressnews.com/opinion/comm...
Cisneros: Rejecting Spurs arena will send San Antonio into a downward spiral
The upcoming vote on a Spurs arena carries much bigger significance than basketball.
www.expressnews.com
October 17, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Stop using Oakland to justify subsidies. Apparently if the Spurs don't get an arena, San Antonio will turn into Oakland?? So stupid. If San Antonio or any city can't manage their pensions, then yeah, it might turn into Oakland. But not bc of lack of pro sports. www.expressnews.com/opinion/comm...
Fielded a few Qs about sports subsidy referenda and turnout. More turnout correlates with lower probability of success. Holding vote in Nov of pres election yrs has higher prob of success. Both not stat diff from zero though. Predicted approval rating in the graph based on n=85 since 1980.
October 15, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Fielded a few Qs about sports subsidy referenda and turnout. More turnout correlates with lower probability of success. Holding vote in Nov of pres election yrs has higher prob of success. Both not stat diff from zero though. Predicted approval rating in the graph based on n=85 since 1980.
Reposted by Geoffrey Propheter
We are pleased to announce that Aiden Powell from West Virginia University is this year’s recipient of NAASE’s Graduate Student Paper Award for his paper “Professional Sporting Events and Emergency Medical Service Response Times: Evidence from New York City.” (1/3)
October 14, 2025 at 10:17 PM
We are pleased to announce that Aiden Powell from West Virginia University is this year’s recipient of NAASE’s Graduate Student Paper Award for his paper “Professional Sporting Events and Emergency Medical Service Response Times: Evidence from New York City.” (1/3)
Just a friendly reminder that any researchers with working papers in the public finance and sports space should reach out to me. I've got a standing offer for a special issue and would love to take the editor up on it. Papers don't have to be US-centric but lessons for policy in US is needed.
October 9, 2025 at 9:19 PM
Just a friendly reminder that any researchers with working papers in the public finance and sports space should reach out to me. I've got a standing offer for a special issue and would love to take the editor up on it. Papers don't have to be US-centric but lessons for policy in US is needed.
Yes, Spurs ticket prices will increase. Historical arena mean yoy chg is 14% in real terms. If pricing this year is near resale, and if arena opened this year, it'd be ~$35 mean price increase. Ticket taxes don't explain the increase, as its historically about 3%. news4sanantonio.com/news/local/f...
Fans question ticket affordability as Spurs arena vote nears
SAN ANTIONIO - With election day four weeks out, San Antonio voters soon will decide if visitor tax dollars should fund a new Spurs arena.But some are questioni
news4sanantonio.com
October 8, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Yes, Spurs ticket prices will increase. Historical arena mean yoy chg is 14% in real terms. If pricing this year is near resale, and if arena opened this year, it'd be ~$35 mean price increase. Ticket taxes don't explain the increase, as its historically about 3%. news4sanantonio.com/news/local/f...
Figured I'd poke at the Arlington Heights consultant report. 5400+ FTE at full build out. They propose 613k sqft of hotel+retail+office, or a min 8.8 workers/1k sqft. CBECS survey, tho, reports aggregate mean for these uses is 3 workers/1k sqft. So, yeah, 8.8 seems a pretty aggressive assumption.
September 30, 2025 at 10:17 PM
Figured I'd poke at the Arlington Heights consultant report. 5400+ FTE at full build out. They propose 613k sqft of hotel+retail+office, or a min 8.8 workers/1k sqft. CBECS survey, tho, reports aggregate mean for these uses is 3 workers/1k sqft. So, yeah, 8.8 seems a pretty aggressive assumption.
Deceptive headline from a Post editor suggesting Denver's proposed NWSL stadium is causing new housing development. The author points out (and city permits corroborate) this building has been in development for 9 years. The stadium was only approved this year. www.denverpost.com/2025/09/25/d...
Denver developer plans 75 apartments on Santa Fe near NWSL stadium site
A Denver developer plans 75 apartments on Santa Fe Drive near the site of a future NWSL stadium in the Overland neighborhood.
www.denverpost.com
September 25, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Deceptive headline from a Post editor suggesting Denver's proposed NWSL stadium is causing new housing development. The author points out (and city permits corroborate) this building has been in development for 9 years. The stadium was only approved this year. www.denverpost.com/2025/09/25/d...
A San Antonio journalist told me today that the mayor has started receiving police protection because of threats against her and her family for her attempts to slow the project and allow for more policy evaluation. Anyone know if the Spurs or NBA have issued a statement on this?
September 24, 2025 at 9:59 PM
A San Antonio journalist told me today that the mayor has started receiving police protection because of threats against her and her family for her attempts to slow the project and allow for more policy evaluation. Anyone know if the Spurs or NBA have issued a statement on this?
Reposted by Geoffrey Propheter
Dennis (@dcoatesecon.bsky.social) and Brad (@bradhumphreys.bsky.social) deserve tremendous credit for elevating the rigor of research into sports economics questions and fostering a vibrant research community.
September 18, 2025 at 1:19 PM
Dennis (@dcoatesecon.bsky.social) and Brad (@bradhumphreys.bsky.social) deserve tremendous credit for elevating the rigor of research into sports economics questions and fostering a vibrant research community.
I don't know which I laughed at harder: DC council giving more thoughtfulness to an amendment to give a CBA citizen group spending authority than it did to giving $6b+ to Harris, or Frumin saying "I said I'd vote 'no' if I didn't get what I wanted. Well, I didn't, but f it, I'll vote 'yes' anyway."
September 17, 2025 at 11:48 PM
I don't know which I laughed at harder: DC council giving more thoughtfulness to an amendment to give a CBA citizen group spending authority than it did to giving $6b+ to Harris, or Frumin saying "I said I'd vote 'no' if I didn't get what I wanted. Well, I didn't, but f it, I'll vote 'yes' anyway."
This is a false but common interpretation of most states' post-Kelo ED laws. In CO, the Broncos can use ED through a metro district which it controls fully. Courts only need to see that lawmakers believed a project has some public benefit.
www.denverpost.com/2025/09/17/d...
www.denverpost.com/2025/09/17/d...
September 17, 2025 at 1:45 PM
This is a false but common interpretation of most states' post-Kelo ED laws. In CO, the Broncos can use ED through a metro district which it controls fully. Courts only need to see that lawmakers believed a project has some public benefit.
www.denverpost.com/2025/09/17/d...
www.denverpost.com/2025/09/17/d...
This statement is false, and it repeats the falsehood in the cited article. It also trades on ambiguity of the meaning of private. If you limit to strictly private debt for brick and mortar at time of construction, hard rock stad, fedex field, BoA stad also count. www.independent.org/article/2025...
September 13, 2025 at 4:59 PM
This statement is false, and it repeats the falsehood in the cited article. It also trades on ambiguity of the meaning of private. If you limit to strictly private debt for brick and mortar at time of construction, hard rock stad, fedex field, BoA stad also count. www.independent.org/article/2025...
What the f is going on in public finance related journalism? I refuse to believe any “journalist” is this stupid. Econ dev official says tax incentives don’t take money from the govt. Literally that’s what any tax break is.
September 13, 2025 at 2:40 PM
What the f is going on in public finance related journalism? I refuse to believe any “journalist” is this stupid. Econ dev official says tax incentives don’t take money from the govt. Literally that’s what any tax break is.
It's true; I said it. It's also true that I didn't think they'd use that sound bite. I don't recall saying it with the level of enthusiasm that would warrant an exclamation mark. It's tough being a sports policy wonk when there's nothing to be wonky about (yet).
denver.citycast.fm/explainers/w...
denver.citycast.fm/explainers/w...
September 11, 2025 at 10:29 PM
It's true; I said it. It's also true that I didn't think they'd use that sound bite. I don't recall saying it with the level of enthusiasm that would warrant an exclamation mark. It's tough being a sports policy wonk when there's nothing to be wonky about (yet).
denver.citycast.fm/explainers/w...
denver.citycast.fm/explainers/w...
Lawmakers are a little too excited for the magnitude of residential and commercial gentrification that's gonna happen. I mean, lawmaking is about picking winners and losers, but at least try to temper your enthusiasm to displace people and businesses. www.denverpost.com/2025/09/09/b...
Broncos name Burnham Yard preferred site for new stadium development
The 58-acre yard is the epicenter of what the Broncos hope will be a transformative project, anchored by a multi-billion dollar stadium and flanked by an entertainment district designed to host eve…
www.denverpost.com
September 9, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Lawmakers are a little too excited for the magnitude of residential and commercial gentrification that's gonna happen. I mean, lawmaking is about picking winners and losers, but at least try to temper your enthusiasm to displace people and businesses. www.denverpost.com/2025/09/09/b...
Apparently Broncos will make their Burnham Yards stadium announcement official today. Apparently they'll also be paying for the stadium themselves. Hahaha.
September 9, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Apparently Broncos will make their Burnham Yards stadium announcement official today. Apparently they'll also be paying for the stadium themselves. Hahaha.
Reposted by Geoffrey Propheter
Meta's Economic Development Subsidies Lead:
"Our data centers, they're the backbone of everything that Meta ultimately does."
Exactly why companies should get NO public money for building them. Meta instead should pay the communities where it locates.
www.kshb.com/news/local-n...
"Our data centers, they're the backbone of everything that Meta ultimately does."
Exactly why companies should get NO public money for building them. Meta instead should pay the communities where it locates.
www.kshb.com/news/local-n...
Meta's Northland data center now operational
Meta’s data center in the Northland is operational as of Wednesday, Aug. 20. The center broke ground in 2022.
www.kshb.com
September 2, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Meta's Economic Development Subsidies Lead:
"Our data centers, they're the backbone of everything that Meta ultimately does."
Exactly why companies should get NO public money for building them. Meta instead should pay the communities where it locates.
www.kshb.com/news/local-n...
"Our data centers, they're the backbone of everything that Meta ultimately does."
Exactly why companies should get NO public money for building them. Meta instead should pay the communities where it locates.
www.kshb.com/news/local-n...
Astros ptax situation has lots of unanswered questions. But it got at least one reporter interested in my other policy world: ptax admin. Never trust roll values for exempt prop. Here are FMVs of 3 facilities when exemption turns on/off. Exempt values are on autopilot.
www.chron.com/sports/astro...
www.chron.com/sports/astro...
August 29, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Astros ptax situation has lots of unanswered questions. But it got at least one reporter interested in my other policy world: ptax admin. Never trust roll values for exempt prop. Here are FMVs of 3 facilities when exemption turns on/off. Exempt values are on autopilot.
www.chron.com/sports/astro...
www.chron.com/sports/astro...