Geoffrey Propheter
@gpropheter.bsky.social
Associate professor at CUDenver. I study prop tax policy & admin, state & local public finance, land development, and sports facility economics. Punk music. Lots of basketball. George Carlin. Big Trouble in Little China, Clue, Bill&Ted. Sac Kings.
Texas ISDs must itemize ballot measures for sports facility debt. TX ptax debt burden for ISD sports has increased ~x3 since 2006. Do voters behave the same towards pro facilities as high school facilities even tho debt tax security is diff? Here's Spurs vote vs NEISD facility votes. Generally, yes.
November 6, 2025 at 4:20 PM
Texas ISDs must itemize ballot measures for sports facility debt. TX ptax debt burden for ISD sports has increased ~x3 since 2006. Do voters behave the same towards pro facilities as high school facilities even tho debt tax security is diff? Here's Spurs vote vs NEISD facility votes. Generally, yes.
Every time I read something about the Bears' continued effort to get more taxpayer money (and frankly of every NFL team threatening to go somewhere), it reminds me of this 1995 gem from long-time Chicago writer Bernie Lincicome.
www.thestadiumbusiness.com/2025/11/03/c...
www.thestadiumbusiness.com/2025/11/03/c...
November 4, 2025 at 12:42 AM
Every time I read something about the Bears' continued effort to get more taxpayer money (and frankly of every NFL team threatening to go somewhere), it reminds me of this 1995 gem from long-time Chicago writer Bernie Lincicome.
www.thestadiumbusiness.com/2025/11/03/c...
www.thestadiumbusiness.com/2025/11/03/c...
Worth pointing out that the Texas legislature killed HB19 in the spring which would have made it very hard to issue non-voter approved debt for sports facilities. Seems relevant considering city and county taxpayers' increasing debt burdens in SA/Bexar.
sanantonioreport.org/decoding-spu...
sanantonioreport.org/decoding-spu...
October 28, 2025 at 3:22 PM
Worth pointing out that the Texas legislature killed HB19 in the spring which would have made it very hard to issue non-voter approved debt for sports facilities. Seems relevant considering city and county taxpayers' increasing debt burdens in SA/Bexar.
sanantonioreport.org/decoding-spu...
sanantonioreport.org/decoding-spu...
Sharon Kioko (U of Wash) presented a study of yield diffs btwn GO and rev bonds by sector. Lawmakers use rev bonds for stadiums even though they are more expensive than GO. Why are they more expensive? They don’t generate enough revenue consistently. Why do lawmakers use them? To avoid voters.
October 24, 2025 at 8:03 PM
Sharon Kioko (U of Wash) presented a study of yield diffs btwn GO and rev bonds by sector. Lawmakers use rev bonds for stadiums even though they are more expensive than GO. Why are they more expensive? They don’t generate enough revenue consistently. Why do lawmakers use them? To avoid voters.
Fielded a few Qs about sports subsidy referenda and turnout. More turnout correlates with lower probability of success. Holding vote in Nov of pres election yrs has higher prob of success. Both not stat diff from zero though. Predicted approval rating in the graph based on n=85 since 1980.
October 15, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Fielded a few Qs about sports subsidy referenda and turnout. More turnout correlates with lower probability of success. Holding vote in Nov of pres election yrs has higher prob of success. Both not stat diff from zero though. Predicted approval rating in the graph based on n=85 since 1980.
This is a false but common interpretation of most states' post-Kelo ED laws. In CO, the Broncos can use ED through a metro district which it controls fully. Courts only need to see that lawmakers believed a project has some public benefit.
www.denverpost.com/2025/09/17/d...
www.denverpost.com/2025/09/17/d...
September 17, 2025 at 1:45 PM
This is a false but common interpretation of most states' post-Kelo ED laws. In CO, the Broncos can use ED through a metro district which it controls fully. Courts only need to see that lawmakers believed a project has some public benefit.
www.denverpost.com/2025/09/17/d...
www.denverpost.com/2025/09/17/d...
This statement is false, and it repeats the falsehood in the cited article. It also trades on ambiguity of the meaning of private. If you limit to strictly private debt for brick and mortar at time of construction, hard rock stad, fedex field, BoA stad also count. www.independent.org/article/2025...
September 13, 2025 at 4:59 PM
This statement is false, and it repeats the falsehood in the cited article. It also trades on ambiguity of the meaning of private. If you limit to strictly private debt for brick and mortar at time of construction, hard rock stad, fedex field, BoA stad also count. www.independent.org/article/2025...
What the f is going on in public finance related journalism? I refuse to believe any “journalist” is this stupid. Econ dev official says tax incentives don’t take money from the govt. Literally that’s what any tax break is.
September 13, 2025 at 2:40 PM
What the f is going on in public finance related journalism? I refuse to believe any “journalist” is this stupid. Econ dev official says tax incentives don’t take money from the govt. Literally that’s what any tax break is.
It's true; I said it. It's also true that I didn't think they'd use that sound bite. I don't recall saying it with the level of enthusiasm that would warrant an exclamation mark. It's tough being a sports policy wonk when there's nothing to be wonky about (yet).
denver.citycast.fm/explainers/w...
denver.citycast.fm/explainers/w...
September 11, 2025 at 10:29 PM
It's true; I said it. It's also true that I didn't think they'd use that sound bite. I don't recall saying it with the level of enthusiasm that would warrant an exclamation mark. It's tough being a sports policy wonk when there's nothing to be wonky about (yet).
denver.citycast.fm/explainers/w...
denver.citycast.fm/explainers/w...
Astros ptax situation has lots of unanswered questions. But it got at least one reporter interested in my other policy world: ptax admin. Never trust roll values for exempt prop. Here are FMVs of 3 facilities when exemption turns on/off. Exempt values are on autopilot.
www.chron.com/sports/astro...
www.chron.com/sports/astro...
August 29, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Astros ptax situation has lots of unanswered questions. But it got at least one reporter interested in my other policy world: ptax admin. Never trust roll values for exempt prop. Here are FMVs of 3 facilities when exemption turns on/off. Exempt values are on autopilot.
www.chron.com/sports/astro...
www.chron.com/sports/astro...
I hear that Fisher's backup plan is to stay in Sac and use the foundation already poured in the late 1980s for an A's stadium. He'll keep the reservoir and re-envision baseball as a water sport to save more money.
August 27, 2025 at 4:56 PM
I hear that Fisher's backup plan is to stay in Sac and use the foundation already poured in the late 1980s for an A's stadium. He'll keep the reservoir and re-envision baseball as a water sport to save more money.
Teams use the same excuse repeatedly about financial confidentiality, and the only reason why this excuse works is because most lawmakers are pushovers or have been bought off. All subsidies in the name of econ dev should require public disclosure of GAAP compliant financials.
July 30, 2025 at 4:55 PM
Teams use the same excuse repeatedly about financial confidentiality, and the only reason why this excuse works is because most lawmakers are pushovers or have been bought off. All subsidies in the name of econ dev should require public disclosure of GAAP compliant financials.
Mendelson agrees to give billions in rent discounts and to make ~20 acres of public land inaccessible for 90 years. The best he can do is $50m in a CBA? This is not the flex Mendelson thinks it is. Philly got Harris to agree to $60m and they were only giving a couple hundred million in breaks.
July 24, 2025 at 8:54 PM
Mendelson agrees to give billions in rent discounts and to make ~20 acres of public land inaccessible for 90 years. The best he can do is $50m in a CBA? This is not the flex Mendelson thinks it is. Philly got Harris to agree to $60m and they were only giving a couple hundred million in breaks.
Once the city issues debt, it’s obligated to pay for it on pain of higher future borrowing costs. Whether the city pays the debt with a TIF-backed fund or GF apps is irrelevant. Shuffling $ around doesn’t change taxpayer costs. This isnt an improvement. chairmanmendelson.com/2025/07/24/c...
July 24, 2025 at 6:50 PM
Once the city issues debt, it’s obligated to pay for it on pain of higher future borrowing costs. Whether the city pays the debt with a TIF-backed fund or GF apps is irrelevant. Shuffling $ around doesn’t change taxpayer costs. This isnt an improvement. chairmanmendelson.com/2025/07/24/c...
New Wolves owners are saying the right things to prepare for a major taxpayer handout on a new arena. They are setting up the common "we're losing money", "we're an anchor", and "we need a new arena to be competitive" justifications. www.twincities.com/2025/07/11/a...
July 12, 2025 at 3:02 PM
New Wolves owners are saying the right things to prepare for a major taxpayer handout on a new arena. They are setting up the common "we're losing money", "we're an anchor", and "we need a new arena to be competitive" justifications. www.twincities.com/2025/07/11/a...
Still seeing stories on Browns stadium $ but still no journalist is talking about how the OH leg/gov passed a law where the state forces a transfer of private ownership to public ownership without compensation. I thought in an R state socialism and govt takings were bad.
July 2, 2025 at 3:08 PM
Still seeing stories on Browns stadium $ but still no journalist is talking about how the OH leg/gov passed a law where the state forces a transfer of private ownership to public ownership without compensation. I thought in an R state socialism and govt takings were bad.
Seems like the SanAnts asst city mang believes the Spurs arena will be fully taxable. At worst they lied; at best they misspoke. The ptax exp will be in the $300-$450m range (nom) over 30yrs with the ISD losing out on 45%, SanAnts city on 21%, and the county and hospital district each on 11%.
June 26, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Seems like the SanAnts asst city mang believes the Spurs arena will be fully taxable. At worst they lied; at best they misspoke. The ptax exp will be in the $300-$450m range (nom) over 30yrs with the ISD losing out on 45%, SanAnts city on 21%, and the county and hospital district each on 11%.
Here's the 2025 pro sports facility lawmaker scorecard by political party through June 2025. Shaping up to be an expensive year for taxpayers. Teams have so far secured $3.6 billion (nom) in state+local taxpayer support with 70% lawmaker support overall.
June 24, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Here's the 2025 pro sports facility lawmaker scorecard by political party through June 2025. Shaping up to be an expensive year for taxpayers. Teams have so far secured $3.6 billion (nom) in state+local taxpayer support with 70% lawmaker support overall.
I've got a study for that! When the Cowboys left Irving, the city's sales tax rev increased. Arlington's sales tax rev from sports increased too but it was offset almost entirely by sales tax rev loss in retail biz. Intra-metro sub effects, folks.
thebeaconnews.org/stories/2025...
thebeaconnews.org/stories/2025...
May 30, 2025 at 3:49 PM
I've got a study for that! When the Cowboys left Irving, the city's sales tax rev increased. Arlington's sales tax rev from sports increased too but it was offset almost entirely by sales tax rev loss in retail biz. Intra-metro sub effects, folks.
thebeaconnews.org/stories/2025...
thebeaconnews.org/stories/2025...
Built for $196m. Devs plead guilty to fraud. Facility sold off for $26m. Never made enough $ to pay for a single bond payment. But was sold as generating "$200 million in annual economic impact." Economic impact doesn't pay your bills. Stop asking for this junk.
finance.yahoo.com/news/sports-...
finance.yahoo.com/news/sports-...
May 28, 2025 at 10:08 PM
Built for $196m. Devs plead guilty to fraud. Facility sold off for $26m. Never made enough $ to pay for a single bond payment. But was sold as generating "$200 million in annual economic impact." Economic impact doesn't pay your bills. Stop asking for this junk.
finance.yahoo.com/news/sports-...
finance.yahoo.com/news/sports-...
Pretty f'ing tired of reporters spreading false arguments about capital spending. Denverite puppets mayor's argument that you can slash core services while also paying for soccer stadium b/c it comes from a different fund. That's not how public budgeting works. Notice gen rev supports the CIP.
May 23, 2025 at 2:39 PM
Pretty f'ing tired of reporters spreading false arguments about capital spending. Denverite puppets mayor's argument that you can slash core services while also paying for soccer stadium b/c it comes from a different fund. That's not how public budgeting works. Notice gen rev supports the CIP.
The local news is eager to report a $2.2b econ impact "study" from the mayor's office (that reads as a bad term paper) but won't take the time to unpack the garbage reasoning. I wrote a couple pages of quick comments for someone a week ago. Rather than putting my thoughts in the trash, here you go.
May 13, 2025 at 2:02 PM
The local news is eager to report a $2.2b econ impact "study" from the mayor's office (that reads as a bad term paper) but won't take the time to unpack the garbage reasoning. I wrote a couple pages of quick comments for someone a week ago. Rather than putting my thoughts in the trash, here you go.
Me 5 minutes into Bowser's media briefing. And frankly me anytime anyone prioritizes entertainment over core public services.
April 28, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Me 5 minutes into Bowser's media briefing. And frankly me anytime anyone prioritizes entertainment over core public services.
Save this the next time someone argues the Bengals/Reds as a boon to tax coffers. Hamilton Co administrator in testimony to Ohio Board of Tax Appeals in talking about the stadiums specifically and county econ dev policy in general:
April 26, 2025 at 3:15 PM
Save this the next time someone argues the Bengals/Reds as a boon to tax coffers. Hamilton Co administrator in testimony to Ohio Board of Tax Appeals in talking about the stadiums specifically and county econ dev policy in general: