Andrew Stokes
@astokespop.bsky.social
Associate Professor at Boston University; Population Health, Demography, Sociology
Preston’s death was first labeled an overdose. The autopsy found no drugs. Likely an asthma attack amid LA’s wildfires. Our recent analysis suggests 440 excess deaths—far beyond the official 31. We’re undercounting climate’s toll. @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
September 22, 2025 at 5:29 PM
Preston’s death was first labeled an overdose. The autopsy found no drugs. Likely an asthma attack amid LA’s wildfires. Our recent analysis suggests 440 excess deaths—far beyond the official 31. We’re undercounting climate’s toll. @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
Reposted by Andrew Stokes
I also recommend this great piece in the @us.theconversation.com by @wrigleyfield.bsky.social @astokespop.bsky.social & colleagues walking through some of their great work to counter this myth of "overcounting" coming out of previous news cycle.
theconversation.com/covid-19-dea...
theconversation.com/covid-19-dea...
COVID-19 deaths in the US continue to be undercounted, research shows, despite claims of ‘overcounts’
Taking into consideration the number of excess deaths caused by COVID-19 compared with pre-pandemic years is critical to getting an accurate accounting of the pandemic’s real toll.
theconversation.com
September 10, 2025 at 1:18 PM
I also recommend this great piece in the @us.theconversation.com by @wrigleyfield.bsky.social @astokespop.bsky.social & colleagues walking through some of their great work to counter this myth of "overcounting" coming out of previous news cycle.
theconversation.com/covid-19-dea...
theconversation.com/covid-19-dea...
Reposted by Andrew Stokes
Persistent minimizing of the COVID death toll hits me especially hard in the #demography feels. To be clear:
➡️ Over one million Americans died of COVID-19.
➡️ Official COVID deaths were likely undercounted, not overcounted.
jenndowd.substack.com/p/how-many-p...
➡️ Over one million Americans died of COVID-19.
➡️ Official COVID deaths were likely undercounted, not overcounted.
jenndowd.substack.com/p/how-many-p...
How many people died of COVID?
We likely undercounted, not overcounted COVID deaths
jenndowd.substack.com
September 9, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Persistent minimizing of the COVID death toll hits me especially hard in the #demography feels. To be clear:
➡️ Over one million Americans died of COVID-19.
➡️ Official COVID deaths were likely undercounted, not overcounted.
jenndowd.substack.com/p/how-many-p...
➡️ Over one million Americans died of COVID-19.
➡️ Official COVID deaths were likely undercounted, not overcounted.
jenndowd.substack.com/p/how-many-p...
Reposted by Andrew Stokes
As a mortality researcher, I haven’t generally paid a lot of attention to people my own age (elder Millennial here). That’s, unfortunately, changing.
(With @astokespop.bsky.social and Jacob Bor)
(With @astokespop.bsky.social and Jacob Bor)
Millennials Are Dying at an Alarming Rate. We Have a Few Ideas as to Why.
America is not a good place to be an early adult.
slate.com
August 20, 2025 at 12:25 PM
As a mortality researcher, I haven’t generally paid a lot of attention to people my own age (elder Millennial here). That’s, unfortunately, changing.
(With @astokespop.bsky.social and Jacob Bor)
(With @astokespop.bsky.social and Jacob Bor)
Reposted by Andrew Stokes
New study 🚨 out in @jama.com! We find that California wildfires🔥in January may have contributed 440 excess deaths in Los Angeles County. This estimate significantly exceeds the 30 direct fatalities linked to these events jamanetwork.com/journals/jam... @pophel.bsky.social @helsinki.fi
Excess Deaths Attributable to the Los Angeles Wildfires From January 5 to February 1, 2025
This study aims to estimate the number of excess deaths attributable to the Los Angeles wildfires using an interrupted time series design.
jamanetwork.com
August 11, 2025 at 7:40 AM
New study 🚨 out in @jama.com! We find that California wildfires🔥in January may have contributed 440 excess deaths in Los Angeles County. This estimate significantly exceeds the 30 direct fatalities linked to these events jamanetwork.com/journals/jam... @pophel.bsky.social @helsinki.fi
Reposted by Andrew Stokes
Study: 30 direct fatalities from the L.A. wildfires, but 440 deaths from January 5 to February 1, 2025 attributable to the wildfires--likely reflecting "a combination of factors, including increased exposure to poor air quality and health care delays and interruptions..." 🛟 😷 health policy
Excess Deaths Attributable to the Los Angeles Wildfires From January 5 to February 1, 2025
This study aims to estimate the number of excess deaths attributable to the Los Angeles wildfires using an interrupted time series design.
jamanetwork.com
August 7, 2025 at 4:53 AM
Study: 30 direct fatalities from the L.A. wildfires, but 440 deaths from January 5 to February 1, 2025 attributable to the wildfires--likely reflecting "a combination of factors, including increased exposure to poor air quality and health care delays and interruptions..." 🛟 😷 health policy
Reposted by Andrew Stokes
An estimated 440 excess deaths were attributed to the January 2025 wildfires in Los Angeles County, underscoring indirect health effects and the need for improved mortality tracking.
ja.ma/4oFM3af #MedSky
ja.ma/4oFM3af #MedSky
August 6, 2025 at 3:20 PM
An estimated 440 excess deaths were attributed to the January 2025 wildfires in Los Angeles County, underscoring indirect health effects and the need for improved mortality tracking.
ja.ma/4oFM3af #MedSky
ja.ma/4oFM3af #MedSky
Reposted by Andrew Stokes
NEW PAPER: "Evolution of the US nonmetropolitan mortality disadvantage by sex, state, and year, 1999‐2019" in @jruralhealth.bsky.social w/Associates Irma Elo & Samuel Preston @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social K Hempstead @astokespop.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1111/jrh....
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...
doi.org/10.1111/jrh....
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...
June 23, 2025 at 6:29 PM
NEW PAPER: "Evolution of the US nonmetropolitan mortality disadvantage by sex, state, and year, 1999‐2019" in @jruralhealth.bsky.social w/Associates Irma Elo & Samuel Preston @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social K Hempstead @astokespop.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1111/jrh....
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...
doi.org/10.1111/jrh....
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...
The U.S. once saw steady declines in mortality—but progress stalled around 2010.
New research: In 2023 alone, there were 525,505 more deaths than expected had pre-2010 trends continued.
91% were among adults without a BA degree. Most were due to CVD and diabetes.
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
New research: In 2023 alone, there were 525,505 more deaths than expected had pre-2010 trends continued.
91% were among adults without a BA degree. Most were due to CVD and diabetes.
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
Diverging Mortality Trends by Educational Attainment in the US
This cross-sectional study examines trends in US mortality rates by sex and educational attainment before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
jamanetwork.com
June 17, 2025 at 11:46 AM
The U.S. once saw steady declines in mortality—but progress stalled around 2010.
New research: In 2023 alone, there were 525,505 more deaths than expected had pre-2010 trends continued.
91% were among adults without a BA degree. Most were due to CVD and diabetes.
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
New research: In 2023 alone, there were 525,505 more deaths than expected had pre-2010 trends continued.
91% were among adults without a BA degree. Most were due to CVD and diabetes.
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
Reposted by Andrew Stokes
Thanks to The Oklahoman (www.oklahoman.com) for running my opinions on the new budget and impacts on Alzheimer's research (bit.ly/4mZXrg7) and public health progress for all of us. #PublicHealth #EndAlzheimers #Epidemiology #ScienceHomecoming
June 13, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Thanks to The Oklahoman (www.oklahoman.com) for running my opinions on the new budget and impacts on Alzheimer's research (bit.ly/4mZXrg7) and public health progress for all of us. #PublicHealth #EndAlzheimers #Epidemiology #ScienceHomecoming
Reposted by Andrew Stokes
For 40 years, Americans have lived shorter lives than people in other rich countries.
For 10 years, that's been rapidly getting worse.
New research: in 2022-2023, there were 1.5 million "missing Americans," who died--but wouldn't have, if America didn't have such uniquely high death rates.
For 10 years, that's been rapidly getting worse.
New research: in 2022-2023, there were 1.5 million "missing Americans," who died--but wouldn't have, if America didn't have such uniquely high death rates.
Excess US Deaths Before, During, and After the COVID-19 Pandemic
This cohort study examines trends in excess deaths in the US before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
jamanetwork.com
May 29, 2025 at 7:58 PM
For 40 years, Americans have lived shorter lives than people in other rich countries.
For 10 years, that's been rapidly getting worse.
New research: in 2022-2023, there were 1.5 million "missing Americans," who died--but wouldn't have, if America didn't have such uniquely high death rates.
For 10 years, that's been rapidly getting worse.
New research: in 2022-2023, there were 1.5 million "missing Americans," who died--but wouldn't have, if America didn't have such uniquely high death rates.
New study with @jacob-bor.bsky.social @wrigleyfield.bsky.social & colleagues estimates that US saw 705,331 excess deaths in 2023—a number in line w/ rising pre-pandemic trend. Over 1.5 million deaths could’ve been averted in 2022–23 if US mortality matched peer nations. 🧵 (1/5)
tinyurl.com/569pr9ty
tinyurl.com/569pr9ty
Excess US Deaths Before, During, and After the COVID-19 Pandemic
This cohort study examines trends in excess deaths in the US before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
tinyurl.com
May 27, 2025 at 2:30 PM
New study with @jacob-bor.bsky.social @wrigleyfield.bsky.social & colleagues estimates that US saw 705,331 excess deaths in 2023—a number in line w/ rising pre-pandemic trend. Over 1.5 million deaths could’ve been averted in 2022–23 if US mortality matched peer nations. 🧵 (1/5)
tinyurl.com/569pr9ty
tinyurl.com/569pr9ty
Reposted by Andrew Stokes
Excess deaths in the US vs other high-income countries.
Coming down relative to prior US data but still the outlier
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
Coming down relative to prior US data but still the outlier
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
Excess US Deaths Before, During, and After the COVID-19 Pandemic
This cohort study examines trends in excess deaths in the US before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
jamanetwork.com
May 23, 2025 at 7:15 PM
Excess deaths in the US vs other high-income countries.
Coming down relative to prior US data but still the outlier
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
Coming down relative to prior US data but still the outlier
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
Reposted by Andrew Stokes
The biggest project I've worked on for the last chunk of years was just published. It asks, how big are US Black-white lifespan differences?
This might seem like a narrow question. I hope to convince you by the end that there are answers you didn't anticipate. And I hope some of them will move you.
This might seem like a narrow question. I hope to convince you by the end that there are answers you didn't anticipate. And I hope some of them will move you.
Three Ways of Looking at Black–White Mortality Differences in the United States | Annual Reviews
Everyone agrees that US Black deaths happen earlier than white deaths on average, but it is surprisingly challenging to find the best ways to summarize, quantify, and compare this gap. This review arg...
www.annualreviews.org
April 30, 2025 at 8:27 PM
The biggest project I've worked on for the last chunk of years was just published. It asks, how big are US Black-white lifespan differences?
This might seem like a narrow question. I hope to convince you by the end that there are answers you didn't anticipate. And I hope some of them will move you.
This might seem like a narrow question. I hope to convince you by the end that there are answers you didn't anticipate. And I hope some of them will move you.
Reposted by Andrew Stokes
A blockbuster study from Irene Papanicolas and colleagues linking wealth to mortality.
- At every US wealth level., mortality rates were higher than Europe's
- The wealthiest Americans have a survival rate similar to the poorest northern/western Europeans
www.nejm.org/doi/full/10....
- At every US wealth level., mortality rates were higher than Europe's
- The wealthiest Americans have a survival rate similar to the poorest northern/western Europeans
www.nejm.org/doi/full/10....
Association between Wealth and Mortality in the United States and Europe | NEJM
Amid growing wealth disparity, we have little information on how health among older
Americans compares with that among older Europeans across the distribution of wealth.
We performed a longitudinal...
www.nejm.org
April 7, 2025 at 1:57 AM
A blockbuster study from Irene Papanicolas and colleagues linking wealth to mortality.
- At every US wealth level., mortality rates were higher than Europe's
- The wealthiest Americans have a survival rate similar to the poorest northern/western Europeans
www.nejm.org/doi/full/10....
- At every US wealth level., mortality rates were higher than Europe's
- The wealthiest Americans have a survival rate similar to the poorest northern/western Europeans
www.nejm.org/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Andrew Stokes
A neat paper by @wrigleyfield.bsky.social @astokespop.bsky.social and team looks into this post 2010 period, showing that death rates from many different conditions increased relative to previous trends.
More evidence of generalized #populationhealth stressors.
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
More evidence of generalized #populationhealth stressors.
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
Mortality Trends Among Early Adults in the United States, 1999-2023
This cross-sectional study examines trends in mortality rates among adults aged 25 to 44 years across the pre–COVID-19 pandemic, pandemic, and postpandemic periods.
jamanetwork.com
March 5, 2025 at 6:08 PM
A neat paper by @wrigleyfield.bsky.social @astokespop.bsky.social and team looks into this post 2010 period, showing that death rates from many different conditions increased relative to previous trends.
More evidence of generalized #populationhealth stressors.
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
More evidence of generalized #populationhealth stressors.
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
Reposted by Andrew Stokes
Excess mortality rates of U.S. Americans age 25-44 (relative to 1999-2010 baseline) by cause of death from @wrigleyfield.bsky.social and co-authors
from new article here: jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
from new article here: jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
March 3, 2025 at 5:18 PM
Excess mortality rates of U.S. Americans age 25-44 (relative to 1999-2010 baseline) by cause of death from @wrigleyfield.bsky.social and co-authors
from new article here: jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
from new article here: jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
Reposted by Andrew Stokes
An important new study from @wrigleyfield.bsky.social, @astokespop.bsky.social and colleagues documenting high levels of excess mortality in adults ages 25-44, including from drug poisonings, transport-related deaths and homicides.
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
Mortality Trends Among Early Adults in the United States, 1999-2023
This cross-sectional study examines trends in mortality rates among adults aged 25 to 44 years across the pre–COVID-19 pandemic, pandemic, and postpandemic periods.
jamanetwork.com
February 8, 2025 at 3:45 PM
An important new study from @wrigleyfield.bsky.social, @astokespop.bsky.social and colleagues documenting high levels of excess mortality in adults ages 25-44, including from drug poisonings, transport-related deaths and homicides.
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
Reposted by Andrew Stokes
1/ How should public health think about new GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic? Do pharmaceutical solutions undermine public health prevention efforts?
In @milbankfund.bsky.social, Neil Mehta & I consider what new anti-obesity drugs might mean for population health.
🔗 www.milbank.org/quarterly/op...
In @milbankfund.bsky.social, Neil Mehta & I consider what new anti-obesity drugs might mean for population health.
🔗 www.milbank.org/quarterly/op...
www.milbank.org
February 6, 2025 at 8:41 PM
1/ How should public health think about new GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic? Do pharmaceutical solutions undermine public health prevention efforts?
In @milbankfund.bsky.social, Neil Mehta & I consider what new anti-obesity drugs might mean for population health.
🔗 www.milbank.org/quarterly/op...
In @milbankfund.bsky.social, Neil Mehta & I consider what new anti-obesity drugs might mean for population health.
🔗 www.milbank.org/quarterly/op...
New study with @wrigleyfield.bsky.social & colleagues finds that excess deaths among young U.S. adults have surged since 2011, accelerating during the pandemic and remaining high in 2023. Our research shows that this crisis extends far beyond drug overdoses. 🧵 (1/6)
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
Mortality Trends Among Early Adults in the United States, 1999-2023
This cross-sectional study examines trends in mortality rates among adults aged 25 to 44 years across the pre–COVID-19 pandemic, pandemic, and postpandemic periods.
jamanetwork.com
February 3, 2025 at 6:05 PM
New study with @wrigleyfield.bsky.social & colleagues finds that excess deaths among young U.S. adults have surged since 2011, accelerating during the pandemic and remaining high in 2023. Our research shows that this crisis extends far beyond drug overdoses. 🧵 (1/6)
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
Reposted by Andrew Stokes
U.S. Mortality trends in the young, ages 25-44 years
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
Drug overdoses are the leading cause of excess mortality. There were substantial numbers of Covid fatalities in this age group during the peak pandemic
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
Drug overdoses are the leading cause of excess mortality. There were substantial numbers of Covid fatalities in this age group during the peak pandemic
January 31, 2025 at 4:31 PM
U.S. Mortality trends in the young, ages 25-44 years
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
Drug overdoses are the leading cause of excess mortality. There were substantial numbers of Covid fatalities in this age group during the peak pandemic
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
Drug overdoses are the leading cause of excess mortality. There were substantial numbers of Covid fatalities in this age group during the peak pandemic
Reposted by Andrew Stokes
New today:
Death rates for Americans aged 25-44 have been rising since 2010. Their mortality is now 70% higher than it would be had pre-2011 mortality declines continued.
w Rafeya Raquib, Katie Berry, Keeley Morris, & @astokespop.bsky.social
1/
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
Death rates for Americans aged 25-44 have been rising since 2010. Their mortality is now 70% higher than it would be had pre-2011 mortality declines continued.
w Rafeya Raquib, Katie Berry, Keeley Morris, & @astokespop.bsky.social
1/
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
January 31, 2025 at 4:47 PM
New today:
Death rates for Americans aged 25-44 have been rising since 2010. Their mortality is now 70% higher than it would be had pre-2011 mortality declines continued.
w Rafeya Raquib, Katie Berry, Keeley Morris, & @astokespop.bsky.social
1/
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
Death rates for Americans aged 25-44 have been rising since 2010. Their mortality is now 70% higher than it would be had pre-2011 mortality declines continued.
w Rafeya Raquib, Katie Berry, Keeley Morris, & @astokespop.bsky.social
1/
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
Reposted by Andrew Stokes
#MELODEM is accepting applications--by 1/27/25--to participate in this year's Annual In-Person Meeting!
The meeting features:
Jun 23-25: presentations w extensive discussion
Jun 25-27: hands-on data workshop, involving a subset of participants
See deets & apply:
docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
The meeting features:
Jun 23-25: presentations w extensive discussion
Jun 25-27: hands-on data workshop, involving a subset of participants
See deets & apply:
docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
Application for 2025 Annual MELODEM Meeting
We are delighted to announce that we are accepting applications to participate in MELODEM's Annual In-Person Meeting which will be held in St. James Hotel in Red Wing, MN from Monday, June 23rd to Fri...
docs.google.com
January 7, 2025 at 6:55 PM
#MELODEM is accepting applications--by 1/27/25--to participate in this year's Annual In-Person Meeting!
The meeting features:
Jun 23-25: presentations w extensive discussion
Jun 25-27: hands-on data workshop, involving a subset of participants
See deets & apply:
docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
The meeting features:
Jun 23-25: presentations w extensive discussion
Jun 25-27: hands-on data workshop, involving a subset of participants
See deets & apply:
docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
Reposted by Andrew Stokes
The first report from our collaboration with the Society of Actuaries (SOA) is now out! @astokespop.bsky.social
We look at cause-specific excess mortality in the US and reflect on the most likely explanations for the gap between excess and COVID-19 mortality.
www.soa.org/resources/re...
We look at cause-specific excess mortality in the US and reflect on the most likely explanations for the gap between excess and COVID-19 mortality.
www.soa.org/resources/re...
Cause-Specific Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic
This report presents initial findings from a project investigating the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 in the post-acute phase of the pandemic.
www.soa.org
December 18, 2024 at 8:36 AM
The first report from our collaboration with the Society of Actuaries (SOA) is now out! @astokespop.bsky.social
We look at cause-specific excess mortality in the US and reflect on the most likely explanations for the gap between excess and COVID-19 mortality.
www.soa.org/resources/re...
We look at cause-specific excess mortality in the US and reflect on the most likely explanations for the gap between excess and COVID-19 mortality.
www.soa.org/resources/re...
Reposted by Andrew Stokes
The Department of Demography at the University of California, Berkeley, invites applications for a Postdoctoral Scholar position in the research group of Prof. Ayesha Mahmud.
For more info, visit: aprecruit.berkeley.edu/JPF04716
For more info, visit: aprecruit.berkeley.edu/JPF04716
Postdoctoral Scholar Employee - Demography
University of California, Berkeley is hiring. Apply now!
aprecruit.berkeley.edu
December 12, 2024 at 1:53 PM
The Department of Demography at the University of California, Berkeley, invites applications for a Postdoctoral Scholar position in the research group of Prof. Ayesha Mahmud.
For more info, visit: aprecruit.berkeley.edu/JPF04716
For more info, visit: aprecruit.berkeley.edu/JPF04716