Sander Wagner
@sanderwagner.bsky.social
Pinned
New Pub 🚨📝🎓:
"Stratification of Post-Birth Labour Supply in a High- and Low- Maternal Employment Regime"
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Short version: Germany has much bigger motherhood penalties than France, but they are not more socially stratified.
That wasn’t what we expected.
🧵⬇️
"Stratification of Post-Birth Labour Supply in a High- and Low- Maternal Employment Regime"
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Short version: Germany has much bigger motherhood penalties than France, but they are not more socially stratified.
That wasn’t what we expected.
🧵⬇️
Chinese birth numbers update:
"The government on Monday said 7.92 million babies were born last year, down from 9.54 million in 2024."
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/18/b...
"The government on Monday said 7.92 million babies were born last year, down from 9.54 million in 2024."
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/18/b...
China’s Birthrate Plunges to Lowest Level Since 1949
www.nytimes.com
February 17, 2026 at 11:54 AM
Chinese birth numbers update:
"The government on Monday said 7.92 million babies were born last year, down from 9.54 million in 2024."
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/18/b...
"The government on Monday said 7.92 million babies were born last year, down from 9.54 million in 2024."
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/18/b...
Reposted by Sander Wagner
Friends in Oxford, I'm giving a talk at Nuffield College Wed 18 Feb 16:00. "Life trajectories and life chances: New approaches from population registries and AI" nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-events/...
February 16, 2026 at 3:08 PM
Friends in Oxford, I'm giving a talk at Nuffield College Wed 18 Feb 16:00. "Life trajectories and life chances: New approaches from population registries and AI" nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-events/...
Reposted by Sander Wagner
Yeah the defense of online gambling that goes 'better than than gangster parlours' is pure motte and bailey. That thing is complete mega expansion grab, not just mere substitute for the legal, regulated trade
Think there is a basic argument for legal gambling as a buffer against an illegal industry. But the 24/7, always online, algorithmically incentivised, permanently advertised addiction machine is just causing huge social ills.
Fuck this is a awful, dreadful chart.
Not to get all Gladstone about this but... gambling is a major social ill and absolutely needs cracking down on
Not to get all Gladstone about this but... gambling is a major social ill and absolutely needs cracking down on
February 14, 2026 at 11:01 AM
Yeah the defense of online gambling that goes 'better than than gangster parlours' is pure motte and bailey. That thing is complete mega expansion grab, not just mere substitute for the legal, regulated trade
New Pub 🚨📝🎓:
"Stratification of Post-Birth Labour Supply in a High- and Low- Maternal Employment Regime"
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Short version: Germany has much bigger motherhood penalties than France, but they are not more socially stratified.
That wasn’t what we expected.
🧵⬇️
"Stratification of Post-Birth Labour Supply in a High- and Low- Maternal Employment Regime"
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Short version: Germany has much bigger motherhood penalties than France, but they are not more socially stratified.
That wasn’t what we expected.
🧵⬇️
February 13, 2026 at 5:41 PM
New Pub 🚨📝🎓:
"Stratification of Post-Birth Labour Supply in a High- and Low- Maternal Employment Regime"
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Short version: Germany has much bigger motherhood penalties than France, but they are not more socially stratified.
That wasn’t what we expected.
🧵⬇️
"Stratification of Post-Birth Labour Supply in a High- and Low- Maternal Employment Regime"
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Short version: Germany has much bigger motherhood penalties than France, but they are not more socially stratified.
That wasn’t what we expected.
🧵⬇️
Well, Solvej Balle would have agreed with Bill Murrray.
“Groundhog Day” turns 33 today. 🎂
“It’s probably the best work I’ve ever done,” said Murray. But afterwards, he and director Harold Ramis “didn’t speak for about ten years. .. I thought there was more there, more suffering, more anguish. And he wanted more comedy. And that’s where we disagreed.”
“It’s probably the best work I’ve ever done,” said Murray. But afterwards, he and director Harold Ramis “didn’t speak for about ten years. .. I thought there was more there, more suffering, more anguish. And he wanted more comedy. And that’s where we disagreed.”
February 13, 2026 at 6:02 AM
Well, Solvej Balle would have agreed with Bill Murrray.
Reposted by Sander Wagner
Sam Altman was right - this unironically is PhD-level intelligence
February 12, 2026 at 9:14 AM
Sam Altman was right - this unironically is PhD-level intelligence
Reposted by Sander Wagner
LLMs tripled new book releases since 2022. Average quality fell: most new entries are slop
BUT books 100-1,000 per category are actually better than before, & pre-LLM authors got more productive. And since people only read the good books, it is net positive for readers. www.nber.org/papers/w34777
BUT books 100-1,000 per category are actually better than before, & pre-LLM authors got more productive. And since people only read the good books, it is net positive for readers. www.nber.org/papers/w34777
February 10, 2026 at 6:19 PM
LLMs tripled new book releases since 2022. Average quality fell: most new entries are slop
BUT books 100-1,000 per category are actually better than before, & pre-LLM authors got more productive. And since people only read the good books, it is net positive for readers. www.nber.org/papers/w34777
BUT books 100-1,000 per category are actually better than before, & pre-LLM authors got more productive. And since people only read the good books, it is net positive for readers. www.nber.org/papers/w34777
Given how bad most technology interventions in the class room look when properly assessed, these results for Khan Academy use in Indian class rooms are really good.
The focus on organizational structure and implementation seems key.
www.nber.org/papers/w3468...
The focus on organizational structure and implementation seems key.
www.nber.org/papers/w3468...
February 10, 2026 at 11:51 AM
Given how bad most technology interventions in the class room look when properly assessed, these results for Khan Academy use in Indian class rooms are really good.
The focus on organizational structure and implementation seems key.
www.nber.org/papers/w3468...
The focus on organizational structure and implementation seems key.
www.nber.org/papers/w3468...
lol, this blogpost might be the closest thing to the essentialized meaning of "cope" i have ever seen
February 7, 2026 at 2:52 PM
lol, this blogpost might be the closest thing to the essentialized meaning of "cope" i have ever seen
'In addition to dogs with regular, “family dog” knowledge levels are dogs with an extraordinary level of word comprehension. These dogs have been called “gifted word learners” and they appear idiosyncratically across countries, breeds, and households.'
www.science.org/doi/full/10....
www.science.org/doi/full/10....
February 7, 2026 at 2:43 PM
'In addition to dogs with regular, “family dog” knowledge levels are dogs with an extraordinary level of word comprehension. These dogs have been called “gifted word learners” and they appear idiosyncratically across countries, breeds, and households.'
www.science.org/doi/full/10....
www.science.org/doi/full/10....
Interesting article on efforts to write the next edition of "The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM)" which provides diagnositv guidelines for mental health and substance-use disorders.
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
The ‘bible for psychiatry’ is getting a rewrite: your guide to the next DSM
Could the next version of the DSM be a ‘living’ document that has more focus on the causes of mental illness?
www.nature.com
February 7, 2026 at 2:16 PM
Interesting article on efforts to write the next edition of "The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM)" which provides diagnositv guidelines for mental health and substance-use disorders.
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Reposted by Sander Wagner
I am but ill qualified
February 7, 2026 at 1:47 PM
I am but ill qualified
Rise of the english non-drinker:
"Almost a third (32%) of 16-24 year olds—including a whopping 36% of men in this age bracket—described themselves as non-drinkers. This compared with only 15% of people aged 55-64 (17% of women, 14% of men)."
www.bmj.com/content/392/...
"Almost a third (32%) of 16-24 year olds—including a whopping 36% of men in this age bracket—described themselves as non-drinkers. This compared with only 15% of people aged 55-64 (17% of women, 14% of men)."
www.bmj.com/content/392/...
More adults in England are avoiding alcohol—what’s behind the trend?
No, this seems to be a year round phenomenon. Latest data from the Health Survey for England 2024 show that almost a quarter of adults don’t drink alcohol.1
Maybe those public health messages are get...
www.bmj.com
February 7, 2026 at 1:44 PM
Rise of the english non-drinker:
"Almost a third (32%) of 16-24 year olds—including a whopping 36% of men in this age bracket—described themselves as non-drinkers. This compared with only 15% of people aged 55-64 (17% of women, 14% of men)."
www.bmj.com/content/392/...
"Almost a third (32%) of 16-24 year olds—including a whopping 36% of men in this age bracket—described themselves as non-drinkers. This compared with only 15% of people aged 55-64 (17% of women, 14% of men)."
www.bmj.com/content/392/...
Omg if they find a way to neutralize OG, we are without a good striker again...
www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/footba...
www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/footba...
Have Chelsea figured out how to combat Arsenal's super-corners?
Chelsea used a fearless tactic while defending corners to leave Arsenal flummoxed in their Carabao Cup semi-final on Tuesday night.
www.dailymail.co.uk
February 4, 2026 at 6:06 PM
Omg if they find a way to neutralize OG, we are without a good striker again...
www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/footba...
www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/footba...
I doubt that I will ever write a sentence that is as crisp, clear and true as this in a research paper www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
February 4, 2026 at 6:00 PM
I doubt that I will ever write a sentence that is as crisp, clear and true as this in a research paper www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Nice little "popularize demography concepts" post here.
Explainer of the differences between tfr and cfr.
Relevant for all the ongoing fertility debates.
daviddfriedman.substack.com/p/a-problem-...
Explainer of the differences between tfr and cfr.
Relevant for all the ongoing fertility debates.
daviddfriedman.substack.com/p/a-problem-...
A Problem of Prophesy
TFR vs CFR
daviddfriedman.substack.com
February 4, 2026 at 12:04 PM
Nice little "popularize demography concepts" post here.
Explainer of the differences between tfr and cfr.
Relevant for all the ongoing fertility debates.
daviddfriedman.substack.com/p/a-problem-...
Explainer of the differences between tfr and cfr.
Relevant for all the ongoing fertility debates.
daviddfriedman.substack.com/p/a-problem-...
Something, that I feel has not fully registered, in particular for those in social science and humanities field and so integrated into the US-Europe science networks, is just how stellar China's scientific take-off has been over the last years.
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
February 4, 2026 at 11:59 AM
Something, that I feel has not fully registered, in particular for those in social science and humanities field and so integrated into the US-Europe science networks, is just how stellar China's scientific take-off has been over the last years.
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Did the AI write this?
Those "For x not A but B. But also C." reasoning sentences feel sooo chatbot.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/11/o...
Those "For x not A but B. But also C." reasoning sentences feel sooo chatbot.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/11/o...
February 3, 2026 at 10:06 AM
Did the AI write this?
Those "For x not A but B. But also C." reasoning sentences feel sooo chatbot.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/11/o...
Those "For x not A but B. But also C." reasoning sentences feel sooo chatbot.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/11/o...
Fantastic data usage in this paper and genuinely shocking results (you do not want to be in a hospital after a ransomware attack).
Unsure about the choice of title if i can be completely honest.
Unsure about the choice of title if i can be completely honest.
January 30, 2026 at 3:50 PM
Fantastic data usage in this paper and genuinely shocking results (you do not want to be in a hospital after a ransomware attack).
Unsure about the choice of title if i can be completely honest.
Unsure about the choice of title if i can be completely honest.
Reposted by Sander Wagner
It's Overleaf but will do the tedious and fiddly bits for you. Trying to resist this is like holding back the tide. openai.com/index/introd...
Introducing Prism
Accelerating science writing and collaboration with AI.
openai.com
January 28, 2026 at 9:28 AM
It's Overleaf but will do the tedious and fiddly bits for you. Trying to resist this is like holding back the tide. openai.com/index/introd...
"2025 is the first year of this century where child deaths will increase."
As aid cuts begin to bite it is projected that an additional 200,000 children under the age 5 will die from preventable illnesses bringing the annual total to 4.8 million.
www.gatesfoundation.org/goalkeepers/...
As aid cuts begin to bite it is projected that an additional 200,000 children under the age 5 will die from preventable illnesses bringing the annual total to 4.8 million.
www.gatesfoundation.org/goalkeepers/...
2025 Goalkeepers Report | Ending Preventable Child Deaths with Primary Healthcare, Vaccines, and Next-Gen Innovations
Millions of children’s lives are at stake—without action, global aid cuts could lead to more child deaths over the next 20 years. But that future isn’t inevitable. If we act now—by getting proven, low...
www.gatesfoundation.org
January 28, 2026 at 9:32 AM
"2025 is the first year of this century where child deaths will increase."
As aid cuts begin to bite it is projected that an additional 200,000 children under the age 5 will die from preventable illnesses bringing the annual total to 4.8 million.
www.gatesfoundation.org/goalkeepers/...
As aid cuts begin to bite it is projected that an additional 200,000 children under the age 5 will die from preventable illnesses bringing the annual total to 4.8 million.
www.gatesfoundation.org/goalkeepers/...
The UK has lost its measles elimination certification after the disease circulated continuously for more than a year.
www.bmj.com/content/392/...
www.bmj.com/content/392/...
UK loses its measles elimination status
The UK has lost its measles elimination certification after the disease circulated continuously for more than a year.
Outbreaks began in late 2023 and intensified through 2024, with a total of 2911 l...
www.bmj.com
January 27, 2026 at 4:08 PM
The UK has lost its measles elimination certification after the disease circulated continuously for more than a year.
www.bmj.com/content/392/...
www.bmj.com/content/392/...
Position for a Post-Doctoral Researcher in Inequality, Social Policy, and Social Mobility at Oxford Social Policy with @zparolin.bsky.social
This is a great opportunity to do very relevant and high-quality research with a fantastic group.
my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecru...
This is a great opportunity to do very relevant and high-quality research with a fantastic group.
my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecru...
Job Details
my.corehr.com
January 22, 2026 at 2:14 PM
Position for a Post-Doctoral Researcher in Inequality, Social Policy, and Social Mobility at Oxford Social Policy with @zparolin.bsky.social
This is a great opportunity to do very relevant and high-quality research with a fantastic group.
my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecru...
This is a great opportunity to do very relevant and high-quality research with a fantastic group.
my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecru...