Andrew Small
@ajwsmall.bsky.social
Senior Fellow at GMF. Formerly: European Commission, ECFR. Posting on China / US / Europe Books, articles: andrewsmall.org
Reposted by Andrew Small
Quick take on EU-China (or China-EU) climate joint statement:
We'll do more of the same and we'll commit to make some commitments later.
vs. last joint statement back in 2021 - in which China stated that it was going to 'strictly control coal consumption (it didn't)
We'll do more of the same and we'll commit to make some commitments later.
vs. last joint statement back in 2021 - in which China stated that it was going to 'strictly control coal consumption (it didn't)
July 24, 2025 at 10:36 AM
Quick take on EU-China (or China-EU) climate joint statement:
We'll do more of the same and we'll commit to make some commitments later.
vs. last joint statement back in 2021 - in which China stated that it was going to 'strictly control coal consumption (it didn't)
We'll do more of the same and we'll commit to make some commitments later.
vs. last joint statement back in 2021 - in which China stated that it was going to 'strictly control coal consumption (it didn't)
EU readout on the summit in Beijing today; no surprises… see Finbarr’s thread for more
July 24, 2025 at 9:59 AM
EU readout on the summit in Beijing today; no surprises… see Finbarr’s thread for more
Reposted by Andrew Small
EU-China summit is underway in Beijing.
In this thread I will collate interesting points from remarks and readouts through the day.
First, Xi Jinping's opening remarks, as run by CCTV this morning
news.cctv.cn/2025/07/24/A...
In this thread I will collate interesting points from remarks and readouts through the day.
First, Xi Jinping's opening remarks, as run by CCTV this morning
news.cctv.cn/2025/07/24/A...
news.cctv.cn
July 24, 2025 at 4:44 AM
EU-China summit is underway in Beijing.
In this thread I will collate interesting points from remarks and readouts through the day.
First, Xi Jinping's opening remarks, as run by CCTV this morning
news.cctv.cn/2025/07/24/A...
In this thread I will collate interesting points from remarks and readouts through the day.
First, Xi Jinping's opening remarks, as run by CCTV this morning
news.cctv.cn/2025/07/24/A...
Reposted by Andrew Small
Looks like the EU and China have a deliverable for their summit.
Joint statement on climate is done, negotiations wrapped up overnight. Will go to ambassadors at Coreper II today for approval
Joint statement on climate is done, negotiations wrapped up overnight. Will go to ambassadors at Coreper II today for approval
July 23, 2025 at 5:04 AM
Looks like the EU and China have a deliverable for their summit.
Joint statement on climate is done, negotiations wrapped up overnight. Will go to ambassadors at Coreper II today for approval
Joint statement on climate is done, negotiations wrapped up overnight. Will go to ambassadors at Coreper II today for approval
I have a GMF piece up on the backstory behind this week's low-content EU-China summit. A "success" that won't feel like one: www.gmfus.org/news/just-sh...
Just Showing Up
www.gmfus.org
July 21, 2025 at 5:07 PM
I have a GMF piece up on the backstory behind this week's low-content EU-China summit. A "success" that won't feel like one: www.gmfus.org/news/just-sh...
Reposted by Andrew Small
📈 THURSDAY: EU-China Trade Relations Ahead of the July Summit, a virtual discussion with GMF's @noahbarkin.bsky.social, Gunnar Wiegand, @ajwsmall.bsky.social, Penny Naas and Eva Valle Lagares, Head of Unit, Far East, Directorate-General Trade, @ec.europa.eu
🎟️ Register now:
🎟️ Register now:
EU-China Trade Relations Ahead of the July Summit
Heightened economic and geopolitical tensions mark the state of EU-China trade relations as a summit between their leaders approaches. How are the two parties navigating the global restructuring…
www.gmfus.org
June 24, 2025 at 10:01 PM
📈 THURSDAY: EU-China Trade Relations Ahead of the July Summit, a virtual discussion with GMF's @noahbarkin.bsky.social, Gunnar Wiegand, @ajwsmall.bsky.social, Penny Naas and Eva Valle Lagares, Head of Unit, Far East, Directorate-General Trade, @ec.europa.eu
🎟️ Register now:
🎟️ Register now:
Reposted by Andrew Small
New Chinese trade data out today for May may deepen anxiety over trade diversion in Europe.
China's exports to the US down 34.52%
China's exports to the EU up 12%
China's exports to Germany up 21.5%
China's exports to France up 24.1%
China's exports to Netherlands up 7.1%
China's exports to the US down 34.52%
China's exports to the EU up 12%
China's exports to Germany up 21.5%
China's exports to France up 24.1%
China's exports to Netherlands up 7.1%
June 9, 2025 at 10:47 AM
New Chinese trade data out today for May may deepen anxiety over trade diversion in Europe.
China's exports to the US down 34.52%
China's exports to the EU up 12%
China's exports to Germany up 21.5%
China's exports to France up 24.1%
China's exports to Netherlands up 7.1%
China's exports to the US down 34.52%
China's exports to the EU up 12%
China's exports to Germany up 21.5%
China's exports to France up 24.1%
China's exports to Netherlands up 7.1%
Both had hoped to do this with the US…
Japan and EU eye launch of ‘competitive alliance’ scheme to boost trade – Kyodo News: ‘Under the framework, Japan and the EU will work together to diversify supply chains for rare earth minerals’ ‘align subsidy conditions for environmental technology’ ‘promote reform of the World Trade Organization’
Japan, EU eye launch of "competitive alliance" scheme to boost trade
Japan and the European Union are preparing to launch an "alliance" framework to beef up their companies' competitiveness by promoting trade and economic security cooperation, diplomatic sour...
english.kyodonews.net
June 9, 2025 at 9:52 AM
Both had hoped to do this with the US…
Reposted by Andrew Small
Onshoring / friend-shoring critical raw material value chains should be included in NATO's upcoming 5% target!
My call on European Ministers of Defence to break China's critical raw material chokehold ASAP.
@euiss.bsky.social
www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
My call on European Ministers of Defence to break China's critical raw material chokehold ASAP.
@euiss.bsky.social
www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
European Ministers of Defence - Save Europe, invest in mining!
Critical materials are the backbone of modern defence. For Europe's rearmament to succeed, the EU defence ministers must break Beijing's chokehold on these essential resources.
www.iss.europa.eu
June 6, 2025 at 7:26 AM
Onshoring / friend-shoring critical raw material value chains should be included in NATO's upcoming 5% target!
My call on European Ministers of Defence to break China's critical raw material chokehold ASAP.
@euiss.bsky.social
www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
My call on European Ministers of Defence to break China's critical raw material chokehold ASAP.
@euiss.bsky.social
www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
Reposted by Andrew Small
Merz messages on China in Bundestag speech:
- China will remain "important partner" of Germany & Europe
- Germany to pursue strategic de-risking, reduce one-sided dependencies.
- Relations w/China increasingly defined by systemic rivalry.
- Growing ties between China & Russia of "great concern"
- China will remain "important partner" of Germany & Europe
- Germany to pursue strategic de-risking, reduce one-sided dependencies.
- Relations w/China increasingly defined by systemic rivalry.
- Growing ties between China & Russia of "great concern"
May 14, 2025 at 11:58 AM
Merz messages on China in Bundestag speech:
- China will remain "important partner" of Germany & Europe
- Germany to pursue strategic de-risking, reduce one-sided dependencies.
- Relations w/China increasingly defined by systemic rivalry.
- Growing ties between China & Russia of "great concern"
- China will remain "important partner" of Germany & Europe
- Germany to pursue strategic de-risking, reduce one-sided dependencies.
- Relations w/China increasingly defined by systemic rivalry.
- Growing ties between China & Russia of "great concern"
Reposted by Andrew Small
China's trade data for April came out this morning.
Have just had the chance to do some sums based on last April's numbers, and for Europe it is an absolute bloodbath.
EU exports to China are down by huge numbers, while China's exports to EU members keep surging
🧵
Have just had the chance to do some sums based on last April's numbers, and for Europe it is an absolute bloodbath.
EU exports to China are down by huge numbers, while China's exports to EU members keep surging
🧵
May 9, 2025 at 10:52 AM
China's trade data for April came out this morning.
Have just had the chance to do some sums based on last April's numbers, and for Europe it is an absolute bloodbath.
EU exports to China are down by huge numbers, while China's exports to EU members keep surging
🧵
Have just had the chance to do some sums based on last April's numbers, and for Europe it is an absolute bloodbath.
EU exports to China are down by huge numbers, while China's exports to EU members keep surging
🧵
Xi’s visit to Moscow this week is a usefully-timed reminder to European policymakers of the hard ceiling on China-Europe relations in the coming years. My @gmfus.bsky.social colleagues put a neat little video together laying it out... More here: www.linkedin.com/posts/andrew...
🇨🇳🇷🇺 President Xi is in Moscow this week, demonstrating his deepening ties with President Putin.
What are the security implications of Russia & China’s closer relationship, and what questions do European leaders face? GMF Senior Fellow @ajwsmall.bsky.social answers. www.youtube.com/shorts/hSqo1...
What are the security implications of Russia & China’s closer relationship, and what questions do European leaders face? GMF Senior Fellow @ajwsmall.bsky.social answers. www.youtube.com/shorts/hSqo1...
Putin and Xi's Deepening Ties
YouTube video by The German Marshall Fund of the United States
www.youtube.com
May 9, 2025 at 11:17 AM
Xi’s visit to Moscow this week is a usefully-timed reminder to European policymakers of the hard ceiling on China-Europe relations in the coming years. My @gmfus.bsky.social colleagues put a neat little video together laying it out... More here: www.linkedin.com/posts/andrew...
A few quick thoughts on how China is likely to deal with the current situation with India-Pakistan (since I am getting some questions...)
Thanks for the nice mention, Patrick. Here’s a quick rundown of how things have evolved since the book was published. Basic equation is the same: China supports Pakistan with military kit, diplomatic shielding, does not provide significant assistance to Pakistan in conflict scenarios beyond that 1/9
May 7, 2025 at 8:44 AM
A few quick thoughts on how China is likely to deal with the current situation with India-Pakistan (since I am getting some questions...)
Reposted by Andrew Small
Breaking: Ireland's data protection watchdog, acting for the EU, fined TikTok a huge 530 million euro for failing to ensure European users' personal data is shielded from access by Chinese authorities
TikTok admitted hosting European data in China
www.barrons.com/news/tiktok-...
TikTok admitted hosting European data in China
www.barrons.com/news/tiktok-...
TikTok Fined 530 Mn Euros In EU Over China Data Transfer
Ireland's data protection watchdog, acting on behalf of the EU, fined TikTok a massive 530 million euros ($600 million) Friday for failing to ensure European users' personal data is shielded from acce...
www.barrons.com
May 2, 2025 at 10:19 AM
Breaking: Ireland's data protection watchdog, acting for the EU, fined TikTok a huge 530 million euro for failing to ensure European users' personal data is shielded from access by Chinese authorities
TikTok admitted hosting European data in China
www.barrons.com/news/tiktok-...
TikTok admitted hosting European data in China
www.barrons.com/news/tiktok-...
Reposted by Andrew Small
EU spokesperson tells me: no plans to drop sanctions on China just because Beijing s lifting sanctions on some MEPs
"The EU has not observed changes in the human rights situation in China/Xinjiang. Therefore, the Council maintains the China/Xinjiang - related designations"
"The EU has not observed changes in the human rights situation in China/Xinjiang. Therefore, the Council maintains the China/Xinjiang - related designations"
In case you missed it last night:
China is dropping sanctions on EU lawmakers, in place since 2021, as it looks to capitalise from the US' hostile turn towards Europe
www.scmp.com/news/china/d...
China is dropping sanctions on EU lawmakers, in place since 2021, as it looks to capitalise from the US' hostile turn towards Europe
www.scmp.com/news/china/d...
European Parliament in ‘final stage’ talks with China to drop lawmaker sanctions
‘It has always been the EP’s intention to have sanctions lifted and resume relations with China,’ spokesperson says.
www.scmp.com
April 24, 2025 at 9:15 AM
EU spokesperson tells me: no plans to drop sanctions on China just because Beijing s lifting sanctions on some MEPs
"The EU has not observed changes in the human rights situation in China/Xinjiang. Therefore, the Council maintains the China/Xinjiang - related designations"
"The EU has not observed changes in the human rights situation in China/Xinjiang. Therefore, the Council maintains the China/Xinjiang - related designations"
Reposted by Andrew Small
🎙️ Can Germany cope with Xi and Trump at the same time? That was the question on Berlin Briefing. Thank you @richardwalker.bsky.social for having me on the podcast, and good to always hear what @ajwsmall.bsky.social of @gmfus.bsky.social has to say! 🔗 WATCH/LISTEN: www.dw.com/en/dwcom-ber...
April 18, 2025 at 9:06 AM
🎙️ Can Germany cope with Xi and Trump at the same time? That was the question on Berlin Briefing. Thank you @richardwalker.bsky.social for having me on the podcast, and good to always hear what @ajwsmall.bsky.social of @gmfus.bsky.social has to say! 🔗 WATCH/LISTEN: www.dw.com/en/dwcom-ber...
Reposted by Andrew Small
Trump team has not said what it wants in trade talks, says EU
https://www.ft.com/content/c9bec30c-e0b6-4d50-a3bb-feb11eadc13c
https://www.ft.com/content/c9bec30c-e0b6-4d50-a3bb-feb11eadc13c
Trump team has not said what it wants in trade talks, says EU
Top negotiators met in Washington on Monday to discuss how to remove so-called reciprocal tariffs
www.ft.com
April 15, 2025 at 12:37 PM
Trump team has not said what it wants in trade talks, says EU
https://www.ft.com/content/c9bec30c-e0b6-4d50-a3bb-feb11eadc13c
https://www.ft.com/content/c9bec30c-e0b6-4d50-a3bb-feb11eadc13c
Reposted by Andrew Small
Readout: Maroš Šefčovič's meeting with Howard Lutnick and Jamieson Greer lasted “a couple of hours” and focused on three areas:
- The EU's offer for a "zero-for-zero" tariff deal on all industrial goods
- Global overcapacity in steel and aluminum
- Supply chains of semiconductors and pharmaceuticals
- The EU's offer for a "zero-for-zero" tariff deal on all industrial goods
- Global overcapacity in steel and aluminum
- Supply chains of semiconductors and pharmaceuticals
April 15, 2025 at 9:53 AM
Readout: Maroš Šefčovič's meeting with Howard Lutnick and Jamieson Greer lasted “a couple of hours” and focused on three areas:
- The EU's offer for a "zero-for-zero" tariff deal on all industrial goods
- Global overcapacity in steel and aluminum
- Supply chains of semiconductors and pharmaceuticals
- The EU's offer for a "zero-for-zero" tariff deal on all industrial goods
- Global overcapacity in steel and aluminum
- Supply chains of semiconductors and pharmaceuticals
"Top Trump official tells Europe to choose between US and Chinese communications tech" - article then focuses on satellites (where Europe is ramping up its own programs) and telecoms (where the US itself mostly uses European tech): www.ft.com/content/0a08...
Top Trump official tells Europe to choose between US or Chinese communications tech
FCC chair Brendan Carr urges ‘western allies’ to pick Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet company
www.ft.com
April 15, 2025 at 9:50 AM
"Top Trump official tells Europe to choose between US and Chinese communications tech" - article then focuses on satellites (where Europe is ramping up its own programs) and telecoms (where the US itself mostly uses European tech): www.ft.com/content/0a08...
Reposted by Andrew Small
Constructive phone call discussion with Premier Li Qiang.
We took stock of the state of EU-China relations as we approach 50 years of diplomatic ties and on global issues.
Read-out ↓
europa.eu/!FtFk49
We took stock of the state of EU-China relations as we approach 50 years of diplomatic ties and on global issues.
Read-out ↓
europa.eu/!FtFk49
April 8, 2025 at 8:35 AM
Constructive phone call discussion with Premier Li Qiang.
We took stock of the state of EU-China relations as we approach 50 years of diplomatic ties and on global issues.
Read-out ↓
europa.eu/!FtFk49
We took stock of the state of EU-China relations as we approach 50 years of diplomatic ties and on global issues.
Read-out ↓
europa.eu/!FtFk49
Reposted by Andrew Small
And the Dutch tech autonomy crusade continues: The Dutch Central Bank now warns about the security of debit card payments, citing concerns about Europe’s over-reliance on American Visa and Mastercard.
nos.nl/artikel/2560...
nos.nl/artikel/2560...
DNB maakt zich zorgen over Amerikaanse invloed op pinbetalingen
Pinbetalingen kunnen gebruikt worden als drukmiddel omdat ze via Amerikaanse bedrijven lopen. "Onwenselijk", noemt DNB dit risico.
nos.nl
March 20, 2025 at 6:20 PM
And the Dutch tech autonomy crusade continues: The Dutch Central Bank now warns about the security of debit card payments, citing concerns about Europe’s over-reliance on American Visa and Mastercard.
nos.nl/artikel/2560...
nos.nl/artikel/2560...
Europe risks "being less able to decide our own future and increasingly pushed around by large economic, technological and military blocs seeking to gain advantage over us". Think this will be the underlying concern informing EU China policy in the new landscape. "Rapprochement" is not an option...
Uncompromising words on China in the Commission's defence white paper, also published today, which lays out the rationale for re-arming Europe
It says "authoritarian states like China increasingly seek to assert their authority and control in our economy and society"
ec.europa.eu/commission/p...
It says "authoritarian states like China increasingly seek to assert their authority and control in our economy and society"
ec.europa.eu/commission/p...
March 20, 2025 at 12:13 PM
Europe risks "being less able to decide our own future and increasingly pushed around by large economic, technological and military blocs seeking to gain advantage over us". Think this will be the underlying concern informing EU China policy in the new landscape. "Rapprochement" is not an option...
Reposted by Andrew Small
Translation: “Why is Everyone Talking About China ‘Seizing’ Australia?”
"I have nothing positive to say on this topic, nor any constructive suggestions. I simply wanted to share with all of you the immense shock I felt."
"I have nothing positive to say on this topic, nor any constructive suggestions. I simply wanted to share with all of you the immense shock I felt."
Translation: “Why is Everyone Talking About China ‘Seizing’ Australia?”
Following China’s unannounced naval exercises off the coast of Australia late last month, there has been a noticeable increase in Chinese social media content promoting the invasion (or “nabbing/seizi...
chinadigitaltimes.net
March 19, 2025 at 9:17 PM
Translation: “Why is Everyone Talking About China ‘Seizing’ Australia?”
"I have nothing positive to say on this topic, nor any constructive suggestions. I simply wanted to share with all of you the immense shock I felt."
"I have nothing positive to say on this topic, nor any constructive suggestions. I simply wanted to share with all of you the immense shock I felt."
Helpful initial assessment of some of the early moves from China to take advantage of the USAID vacuum
🧵Aid, Trade, & Shade: China’s USAID Ambitions
The suspension of USAID has created a vacuum that China appears to be filling with state-controlled development, aid, educational programs, and influence campaigns.
infoepi.org/posts/2025/...
The suspension of USAID has created a vacuum that China appears to be filling with state-controlled development, aid, educational programs, and influence campaigns.
infoepi.org/posts/2025/...
Aid, Trade, & Shade: China’s USAID Ambitions – InfoEpi Lab
China is filling the global development gap left by USAID’s suspension with strategic investments, influence campaigns, and suppression of independent monitoring to expand geopolitical control.
infoepi.org
March 20, 2025 at 10:40 AM
Helpful initial assessment of some of the early moves from China to take advantage of the USAID vacuum
Reposted by Andrew Small
Great scoop from the FT: EU probes BYD plant in Hungary over unfair Chinese subsidies.
This would be massive for Brussels-Budapest & Brussels-Beijing relations if it proceeds on.ft.com/4kBDlHV
This would be massive for Brussels-Budapest & Brussels-Beijing relations if it proceeds on.ft.com/4kBDlHV
EU probes BYD plant in Hungary over unfair Chinese subsidies
Investigation comes as Viktor Orbán has attracted large Chinese investments to his country
on.ft.com
March 20, 2025 at 7:25 AM
Great scoop from the FT: EU probes BYD plant in Hungary over unfair Chinese subsidies.
This would be massive for Brussels-Budapest & Brussels-Beijing relations if it proceeds on.ft.com/4kBDlHV
This would be massive for Brussels-Budapest & Brussels-Beijing relations if it proceeds on.ft.com/4kBDlHV