China won't want a significant escalation (few do) but I suspect won’t mind an opportunity to test Chinese against Western weapons systems on India's side. I doubt Beijing will see the Indian strikes as excessively escalatory. A kind of re-run of 2019 would IMO be fine from China’s perspective 9/9

Further back in time, there was some coordination and complementarity between Chinese and US approaches (see Kargil, Twin Peaks, even Mumbai). But that hasn’t been the case since Uri - now China’s expectation is that US will provide forms of support to India, and it will do likewise for Pakistan

China will certainly tilt in Pakistan’s direction though - I expect providing intelligence support and diplomatic support (as we’ve already seen at the UN). This isn’t just about China-Pak relations, but demonstration effect to others that they “look after their friends” 7/9

China won’t want to be seen to be too embroiled in Pak response (beyond the unavoidable fact that they will be using Chinese weapons): it's trying to stabilize ties with India now (as with many others) to consolidate China's position to face the US so will tread more delicately than a year or so ago

That doesn’t change the fundamental role that Pakistan plays for China as counterbalance / second front pressure on India. And Beijing has never minded a bit of “re-hyphenation” of India with Pakistan- same will hold now at a moment characterized by huge international economic opportunity for India

China-Pak ties are far worse than a decade ago. Beijing’s disappointment with CPEC, concerns about failure to protect Chinese nationals, broader unhappiness with Pak internal security landscape, economic & political situation, put relations on a lower ebb (though they don’t dramatize that in public)

CPEC did add a new factor: in the early years, as investments surged, China put extra stress on on Pak maintaining stability with India to ensure their economic interests weren’t harmed. But CPEC has stalled and the importance of the economic relationship has dipped again 3/9

But: the Chinese kit is much better, and the balance of the weapons systems that Pakistan uses is now far more China-centric (also a byproduct of developments in US-Pak & US-India ties). Old version was low-end plus nukes / delivery systems; new version includes advanced platforms 2/9

Thanks for the nice mention, Patrick. Here’s a quick rundown of how things have evolved since the book was published. Basic equation is the same: China supports Pakistan with military kit, diplomatic shielding, does not provide significant assistance to Pakistan in conflict scenarios beyond that 1/9