Christopher Guess
@tryandguess.com
Freelance journalism/computer science/policy expert
Formerly @ Duke Reporters' Lab focusing Mis/Disinformation and fact-checking mostly with humans, and sometimes ML/AI stuff.
Based in NYC, previously a lot of places in Europe/Africa/North America
Formerly @ Duke Reporters' Lab focusing Mis/Disinformation and fact-checking mostly with humans, and sometimes ML/AI stuff.
Based in NYC, previously a lot of places in Europe/Africa/North America
Reposted by Christopher Guess
“In this moment of political darkness, New York will be the light.”
Congratulations @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social
Congratulations @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social
November 5, 2025 at 5:19 AM
“In this moment of political darkness, New York will be the light.”
Congratulations @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social
Congratulations @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social
Reposted by Christopher Guess
consider signing up to github.com/Plan-Vert/op...
GitHub - Plan-Vert/open-letter: An open letter calling for a hard fork of Rails to remove DHH's influence
An open letter calling for a hard fork of Rails to remove DHH's influence - Plan-Vert/open-letter
github.com
September 27, 2025 at 5:53 PM
consider signing up to github.com/Plan-Vert/op...
@governor.ny.gov why does NY require a prescription for the new COVID vaccine while some states don’t? We know the FDA instructions on it are bogus and politically influenced.
August 29, 2025 at 1:06 PM
@governor.ny.gov why does NY require a prescription for the new COVID vaccine while some states don’t? We know the FDA instructions on it are bogus and politically influenced.
Reposted by Christopher Guess
"Any book worth banning is a book worth reading."
Isaac Asimov
Isaac Asimov
August 25, 2025 at 8:40 PM
"Any book worth banning is a book worth reading."
Isaac Asimov
Isaac Asimov
This is a beautiful piece. If you’ve ever loved maths (even just basic calculus) you’ll relate to this man’s story.
Yitang Zhang bided his time teaching calculus. Then he solved a 150-year-old math problem.
The Pursuit of Beauty
Yitang Zhang bided his time teaching calculus. Then he solved a hundred-and-fifty-year-old math problem.
nyer.cm
August 26, 2025 at 12:06 AM
This is a beautiful piece. If you’ve ever loved maths (even just basic calculus) you’ll relate to this man’s story.
Reposted by Christopher Guess
Yitang Zhang bided his time teaching calculus. Then he solved a 150-year-old math problem.
The Pursuit of Beauty
Yitang Zhang bided his time teaching calculus. Then he solved a hundred-and-fifty-year-old math problem.
nyer.cm
August 25, 2025 at 10:42 PM
Yitang Zhang bided his time teaching calculus. Then he solved a 150-year-old math problem.
This is deeper and darker the more you think about it.
Slaughterhouse Cow Frets Over Personal Contributions To Climate Change theonion.com/slaught...
August 4, 2025 at 2:03 PM
This is deeper and darker the more you think about it.
Reposted by Christopher Guess
Ozzy Osbourne: Welcome to Hell (affectionate)
Hulk Hogan: Welcome to Hell (derogatory)
Hulk Hogan: Welcome to Hell (derogatory)
July 24, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Ozzy Osbourne: Welcome to Hell (affectionate)
Hulk Hogan: Welcome to Hell (derogatory)
Hulk Hogan: Welcome to Hell (derogatory)
Reposted by Christopher Guess
Look, you can say a lot about Hogan's legacy: he was racist, he was terrible to his colleagues, he put himself above other people, he firmly believed in the supremacy of white people, he was a bad wrestler, his life was a net negative for society.
That's it. That's the post.
That's it. That's the post.
July 24, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Look, you can say a lot about Hogan's legacy: he was racist, he was terrible to his colleagues, he put himself above other people, he firmly believed in the supremacy of white people, he was a bad wrestler, his life was a net negative for society.
That's it. That's the post.
That's it. That's the post.
Reposted by Christopher Guess
I’m petrified about today’s science news. Genetically modifying crabs to have cheetah genes? This could go sideways fast.
July 8, 2025 at 9:45 AM
I’m petrified about today’s science news. Genetically modifying crabs to have cheetah genes? This could go sideways fast.
Any lawyers out there who can explain how this doesn’t walk back the EPA regulation ruling? Or is that more congressional?
JUST IN: The Supreme Court on Friday upheld a key provision of the Affordable Care Act, ensuring, at least for now, that some 150 million people will continue getting many free, preventive services under the act.
Supreme Court upholds key Obamacare measure on preventive care
The Supreme Court on Friday upheld a key provision of the Affordable Care Act, ensuring, at least for now, that some 150 million people will continue getting many free, preventive services under the act.
n.pr
June 27, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Any lawyers out there who can explain how this doesn’t walk back the EPA regulation ruling? Or is that more congressional?
Reposted by Christopher Guess
This was not a full-page ad I was expecting to see in the Sunday NYTimes today
June 22, 2025 at 1:18 PM
This was not a full-page ad I was expecting to see in the Sunday NYTimes today
I just realized I hit the NYC jackpot: turns out my apartment is rent stabilized (and has been since it was built). Landlord never told me, but the extremely generous and low rent increases every year make a lot more sense now.
June 16, 2025 at 1:13 PM
I just realized I hit the NYC jackpot: turns out my apartment is rent stabilized (and has been since it was built). Landlord never told me, but the extremely generous and low rent increases every year make a lot more sense now.
Reposted by Christopher Guess
Perhaps when we worry about Big Tech, we should spend less time focused on social media and more time focused on the companies actively helping to expand the surveillance state reason.com/2025/06/02/p...
How Palantir is expanding the surveillance state
If you think the government will only use these tools to track illegal immigrants, think again.
reason.com
June 2, 2025 at 6:26 PM
Perhaps when we worry about Big Tech, we should spend less time focused on social media and more time focused on the companies actively helping to expand the surveillance state reason.com/2025/06/02/p...
Reposted by Christopher Guess
Oh my god, Copilot is allowed to create and fix issues on Microsoft github repos and it goes exactly as you'd have imagined.
Try going into any of these PRs commits to see poor Microsoft engineers try to coerce Copilot into doing literally anything right.
www.reddit.com/r/Experience...
Try going into any of these PRs commits to see poor Microsoft engineers try to coerce Copilot into doing literally anything right.
www.reddit.com/r/Experience...
From the ExperiencedDevs community on Reddit: My new hobby: watching AI slowly drive Microsoft employees insane
Explore this post and more from the ExperiencedDevs community
www.reddit.com
May 21, 2025 at 10:48 AM
Oh my god, Copilot is allowed to create and fix issues on Microsoft github repos and it goes exactly as you'd have imagined.
Try going into any of these PRs commits to see poor Microsoft engineers try to coerce Copilot into doing literally anything right.
www.reddit.com/r/Experience...
Try going into any of these PRs commits to see poor Microsoft engineers try to coerce Copilot into doing literally anything right.
www.reddit.com/r/Experience...
Effective Altruists should just own their ideology and hand out copies of The Turner Diary. It’s basically the same thing at this point.
May 12, 2025 at 5:27 PM
Effective Altruists should just own their ideology and hand out copies of The Turner Diary. It’s basically the same thing at this point.
Reposted by Christopher Guess
This is just wild on how The Atlantic interviewed Trump. I mean, does anyone pick up unknown numbers anymore *other* than the President of the United States?
April 28, 2025 at 10:13 PM
This is just wild on how The Atlantic interviewed Trump. I mean, does anyone pick up unknown numbers anymore *other* than the President of the United States?
Reposted by Christopher Guess
You have to wonder what Mark Carney's other two wishes were after rubbing that bottle
April 28, 2025 at 1:08 PM
You have to wonder what Mark Carney's other two wishes were after rubbing that bottle
Reposted by Christopher Guess
A reminder that if the government can send migrants to a prison camp without any due process, it can send U.S. citizens there, too. I know because this happened to me and my family in 1942.
April 7, 2025 at 8:30 PM
A reminder that if the government can send migrants to a prison camp without any due process, it can send U.S. citizens there, too. I know because this happened to me and my family in 1942.
I’m looking for a job! My Duke University lab is sadly closing up shop (not directly related to *waves hands around*).
Reach out if you’re looking for someone with a lot of experience in:
Computer science
Investigative journalism
Journalism/NGO Security
International financial systems
Reach out if you’re looking for someone with a lot of experience in:
Computer science
Investigative journalism
Journalism/NGO Security
International financial systems
April 8, 2025 at 3:32 PM
I’m looking for a job! My Duke University lab is sadly closing up shop (not directly related to *waves hands around*).
Reach out if you’re looking for someone with a lot of experience in:
Computer science
Investigative journalism
Journalism/NGO Security
International financial systems
Reach out if you’re looking for someone with a lot of experience in:
Computer science
Investigative journalism
Journalism/NGO Security
International financial systems
This is a great explanation
April 8, 2025 at 12:42 AM
This is a great explanation
Reposted by Christopher Guess
guess where they got their weird trade deficit math from?
i went to the pit for y'all and brought back the screenshots with alt text
i went to the pit for y'all and brought back the screenshots with alt text
![chatgpt log:
What would be an easy way to calculate the tariffs that should be imposed on other countries so that the US is on even-playing fields when it comes to trade deficit? Set minimum at 10%.
Reasoned about trade tariffs and deficits for 10 seconds v
A straightforward (if naïve) method is to set the tariff rate for each trading partner equal to the percentage share of the trade deficit relative to that country's total imports-always no less than 10%. In formula form:
Tariff Rate (%) = max(10, (Trade Deficit ÷ Total Imports) *
100)
For example, if the US runs a $20 billion deficit on $100 billion worth of imports from a country, the calculated rate is (20/100)×100 = 20%. If the deficit were only 5%, you'd still impose a 10% floor.
This method ignores the intricate dynamics of international trade-such as elasticities, retaliatory measures, and supply chain nuances-but it provides a blunt, proportional rule to "level the playing field." One might implement it in Python like so:
[code]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:iyz5zf463ic52vqbonyu2ebu/bafkreigbalqxjorllnpelbwe5kcla5fdedxvgv3cicxdsrbdxarodif5ba@jpeg)
![Grok:
the deficit. The deficit as a percentage of total trade is
$295B/$582B = 50.69%. Using the formula Tariff% = 10% +
(Deficit% × Scaling Factor), we choose a scaling factor of 50 for illustration:
• Tariff = 10% + (50.69% × 50) = 10% + 25.345% = 35.345%, rounded to 35.3%.
This means a 35.3% tariff on Chinese goods could be proposed to offset the imbalance, aiming to reduce imports and encourage domestic production or exports.
Extending to Other Countries
To provide a broader view, here's a table of top US trading partners with 2024 deficits, using data from The Motley Fool and similar calculations (assuming scaling factor of 50 for consistency):
[data table headings]
Country
Deficit
(USD
Billion)
Total
Trade
(USD
Billion)
Deficit %
Calculate d Tariff %
China
-295
582
50.69%
35.3%
Mexico
-172
840
20.48%
20.2%
Vietnam
-123
(Data incomplet e, estimate)
~30%
25.0%
Ireland
-87
(Data incomplet e, estimate)
~25%
22.5%
Germany
-85
(Data incomplete estimate)
~20%
20.0%](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:iyz5zf463ic52vqbonyu2ebu/bafkreietqlxsi5akdrvtp2rwqpc6kt6g6bbb2dppqcfn2j4q7xkofn4f4y@jpeg)
April 3, 2025 at 12:42 AM
guess where they got their weird trade deficit math from?
i went to the pit for y'all and brought back the screenshots with alt text
i went to the pit for y'all and brought back the screenshots with alt text
Reposted by Christopher Guess
Reposted by Christopher Guess
The hype machine for Big Tech, "AI", and cyberlibertarianism shows no sign of slowing down. This is because it actually has to speed up to balance the number of red lights flashing on the dashboard in terms of "AI's" usefulness, contribution to human happiness, and (crucially), profitability.
The full report by the Tony Blair Institute is out, in which they detail how copyright should be "rebooted" in the AI age. It reads like a big tech lobbying document. I hope they will be asked serious questions at its launch in London today.
Some very brief highlights:
🧵 1/8
Some very brief highlights:
🧵 1/8
April 2, 2025 at 7:53 AM
The hype machine for Big Tech, "AI", and cyberlibertarianism shows no sign of slowing down. This is because it actually has to speed up to balance the number of red lights flashing on the dashboard in terms of "AI's" usefulness, contribution to human happiness, and (crucially), profitability.