Jesse “ElectionSky When?” Bacon
@treyf.bsky.social
Sr Digital Organizing Manager at Indivisible these several years, IndivisiUnion forever. Still @Trayf on the x place. “They are a slow swimmer, but he always knows when to breathe.” I can opt you out.
I was lucky to be at college and just was against whatever people seemed to like. This worked out much better than me avoiding ultimate frisbee
I was in sixth grade and it was the first movie I ever watched where I was "this is definitely not good" and I was at the age where I presumed a movie in a theater = good
Of course everyone is allowed to like what they like, but this widespread prequel rehabilitation blows my mind. I was 9 when the phantom menace came out, and didn’t like it then. Do you know how bad a space movie had to be for me to not like it at age 9?
November 11, 2025 at 12:03 AM
I was lucky to be at college and just was against whatever people seemed to like. This worked out much better than me avoiding ultimate frisbee
Another left wing win in the offing?
JUST IN: Katie Wilson is now ahead of Mayor Bruce Harrell in the Seattle mayoral race.
Stay tuned for details on today's count.
Stay tuned for details on today's count.
November 10, 2025 at 11:56 PM
Another left wing win in the offing?
Lets just beat them every month. And as Aftyn’s former colleague I can tell you she will not be kind to cavers.
To everyone mad at Chuck Schumer's leadership and the government shutdown ending w/o protections for healthcare:
The best way to get the GOP to reinstate ACA subsidies?
Win elections. Make them scared.
#TN07 election is in 24 days.
A Dem upset is possible.
Donate. Volunteer. SUPPORT AFTYN BEHN!
The best way to get the GOP to reinstate ACA subsidies?
Win elections. Make them scared.
#TN07 election is in 24 days.
A Dem upset is possible.
Donate. Volunteer. SUPPORT AFTYN BEHN!
24 DAYS UNTIL WE MAKE HISTORY.
Now is our time. Thank you to the @DNC chair, Ken Martin, for coming to Nashville, and to all of those who canvassed yesterday.
Remember, talking to voters is the only way we’re going to win— sign up today
🔗 Link in bio
Now is our time. Thank you to the @DNC chair, Ken Martin, for coming to Nashville, and to all of those who canvassed yesterday.
Remember, talking to voters is the only way we’re going to win— sign up today
🔗 Link in bio
November 10, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Lets just beat them every month. And as Aftyn’s former colleague I can tell you she will not be kind to cavers.
Wait is Kirsten Dunst performing the musical from Muppets Take Manhattan in Spider Man 3?!
November 10, 2025 at 2:16 AM
Wait is Kirsten Dunst performing the musical from Muppets Take Manhattan in Spider Man 3?!
You might have! And you might still have the electoral map in your head
Might you have missed some of the depth of Tuesday's results, beyond the big headline races?
I'd been watching roughly 200 races heading into Election Day, so here's a thread of some of what you don't want to skip over!
🧵
I'd been watching roughly 200 races heading into Election Day, so here's a thread of some of what you don't want to skip over!
🧵
November 9, 2025 at 9:39 PM
You might have! And you might still have the electoral map in your head
It still wasn’t just blue cities having local elections: the sequel
Georgia Dems also win several state legislative seats in both chambers that Trump had won by more than 20 points (the darkest red on the maps on the left in this thread).
They even won a few House seats that Trump had won by more than 30 points
They even won a few House seats that Trump had won by more than 30 points
Dems won Georgia’s Public Service Commission elections by 25-point landslides—their largest for any office since 1998—and improved over 2024 everywhere.
These maps compare results by state House district for:
2024 president (left) - 96-84 Trump majority
2025 PSC seat 3 (right) - 115-65 Dem majority
These maps compare results by state House district for:
2024 president (left) - 96-84 Trump majority
2025 PSC seat 3 (right) - 115-65 Dem majority
November 9, 2025 at 5:13 PM
It still wasn’t just blue cities having local elections: the sequel
It wasn’t just blue cities having local elections
In Georgia’s statewide races on Tuesday, the two Democratic candidates won 8 counties where, in 2024, Kamala Harris had received UNDER 40%.
via: almanacofamericanpolitics.substack.com/p/democrats-...
via: almanacofamericanpolitics.substack.com/p/democrats-...
November 9, 2025 at 5:12 PM
It wasn’t just blue cities having local elections
November 9, 2025 at 5:12 PM
Reposted by Jesse “ElectionSky When?” Bacon
Sigh. I apologize on our behalf.
Meet gen X: middle-aged, enraged and radicalised by internet bile | Gaby Hinsliff
Who is driving the populist insurgency? It’s not grumpy pensioners or vulnerable teenagers – it’s my generation, says Guardian columnist Gaby Hinsliff
www.theguardian.com
November 9, 2025 at 4:46 PM
Sigh. I apologize on our behalf.
Going to make some and send to the ADL tip line
The Mamdani political sign generator is kinda fun https://homes.luddy.indiana.edu/ccshan/for/for.html
November 9, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Going to make some and send to the ADL tip line
Reposted by Jesse “ElectionSky When?” Bacon
I knew it would take less than a day for a tiktok dj to make something.
November 5, 2025 at 12:13 PM
I knew it would take less than a day for a tiktok dj to make something.
I initially read his remarks as saying they would pass more Big Beautiful Bills, but of course it's just more voter suppression. That's going to be pretty hard to pass through federal legislation?
Trump's new response to epic GOP losses? Pushing Rs to end early and mail voting entirely. Rather than course correct, the answer is: Gerrymander GOP states, make voting much harder, rig midterms.
On the pod, Dem operative Jessica Post is so good on all this:
newrepublic.com/article/2028...
On the pod, Dem operative Jessica Post is so good on all this:
newrepublic.com/article/2028...
Unraveling Trump Accidentally Blurts Out Secret Plan to Rig 2026
As Trump’s excuses for GOP losses worsen and he calls for rigging the midterms in response, a Democratic operative explains why his schemes could still be a problem—and how Democrats should respond.
newrepublic.com
November 7, 2025 at 2:06 PM
I initially read his remarks as saying they would pass more Big Beautiful Bills, but of course it's just more voter suppression. That's going to be pretty hard to pass through federal legislation?
Ha well the gerrymandering one is already not going well
Trump's new response to epic GOP losses? Pushing Rs to end early and mail voting entirely. Rather than course correct, the answer is: Gerrymander GOP states, make voting much harder, rig midterms.
On the pod, Dem operative Jessica Post is so good on all this:
newrepublic.com/article/2028...
On the pod, Dem operative Jessica Post is so good on all this:
newrepublic.com/article/2028...
Unraveling Trump Accidentally Blurts Out Secret Plan to Rig 2026
As Trump’s excuses for GOP losses worsen and he calls for rigging the midterms in response, a Democratic operative explains why his schemes could still be a problem—and how Democrats should respond.
newrepublic.com
November 7, 2025 at 1:58 PM
Ha well the gerrymandering one is already not going well
It’s not just that Trump has to stop digging, at this point he has to find some way to turn things around , like what would his version of a Dobbs decision look like?
Also: This was all utterly predictable. The change in subgroup results from 2024 to 25 is highly correlated with change in Trump's approval ratings among key demographic groups from Jan to Nov.
If you had a subscription to Strength In Numbers, you saw this coming: www.gelliottmorris.com/subscribe
If you had a subscription to Strength In Numbers, you saw this coming: www.gelliottmorris.com/subscribe
November 7, 2025 at 1:08 PM
It’s not just that Trump has to stop digging, at this point he has to find some way to turn things around , like what would his version of a Dobbs decision look like?
A re-realignment!
Dem gains in this week's elections erased the inroads Trump made with non-white, young, and low-income voters in 2024. In fact, the R-to-D shift from 24 to 25 is double Trump's gains from 20-24. Claims of a GOP political realignment have been highly exaggerated
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
Trump's winning 2024 coalition has evaporated
Claims of a conservative realignment of non-whites, the working class, and young voters have been highly exaggerated
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 7, 2025 at 1:07 PM
A re-realignment!
Didn't help that the CA GOP gave up and spent like $27 on it, guess they could the polls better than that pundit
In short, Prop 50 was pretty much the only notable race on the ballot in California, so just about everyone showing up to vote was gonna be motivated by that ballot measure. And it was an extremely partisan issue that broke down along partisan lines. In CA, that's never gonna be good for the GOP.
November 6, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Didn't help that the CA GOP gave up and spent like $27 on it, guess they could the polls better than that pundit
"This is in keeping with my advice to the Democrats! Which was ... that they didn’t need to get their act together or emphasize the perfect set of issues or pick the correct campaign themes, because the overwhelming driver of these elections will be the popularity or lack thereof of the president."
My election wrap, mostly forward looking, covering lots of ground briefly - including my irresponsible speculation about one reason the conventional wisdom was so certain that the party didn't have its act together. goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/after-the-...
After the Elections
A mostly forward-looking wrap.
goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com
November 6, 2025 at 5:56 PM
"This is in keeping with my advice to the Democrats! Which was ... that they didn’t need to get their act together or emphasize the perfect set of issues or pick the correct campaign themes, because the overwhelming driver of these elections will be the popularity or lack thereof of the president."
I almost forgot about the "polling only 51%" tweet! Never Forget.
Since it seems to be victory lap day, we're gonna take one, too. One prominent reporter said in mid-Sept. that a poll showing Prop 50 up 17 points had Dems "quite spooked"—because of conventional wisdom about ballot measure polls.
We explained why that CW might be wrong. Prop 50 beat the polls.
We explained why that CW might be wrong. Prop 50 beat the polls.
Morning Digest: New independent poll shows voters approving California remap
And why the received wisdom about ballot measure polling might be wrong
www.the-downballot.com
November 6, 2025 at 5:49 PM
I almost forgot about the "polling only 51%" tweet! Never Forget.
If you haven’t listened to the Downballot recap yet did the election even happen ?
New podcast episode! We dive *deep* into every important theme and takeaway we could think of for Tuesday's extraordinary elections—including how Latino voters moved back to Dems, why normies are showing far more spine than elites, and what it all means for 2026.
It's a great listen—check it out!
It's a great listen—check it out!
Holy crap, what an election!
Listen now | What the heck just happened, and what does it all mean? We've gotchu!
www.the-downballot.com
November 6, 2025 at 4:00 PM
If you haven’t listened to the Downballot recap yet did the election even happen ?
🔮😢
November 6, 2025 at 3:45 PM
🔮😢
Oh wait a second, I didn't realize it was this strong! makes sense though, it's just one year and how much really changes
"off year elections are not indicative of what's to come, that's what history teaches us"
no it's not! there is a strong relationship between the swing in the VA Gov race and subsequent swing in the midterms www.gelliottmorris.com/p/seven-data...
no it's not! there is a strong relationship between the swing in the VA Gov race and subsequent swing in the midterms www.gelliottmorris.com/p/seven-data...
November 6, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Oh wait a second, I didn't realize it was this strong! makes sense though, it's just one year and how much really changes
The self-brain rot caused by seeing only "red" and "blue" states and ignoring poor Mississippi and Georgia.
we're on day 2 of Mike Johnson urging everyone to ignore the drubbing his party took on Tuesday
November 6, 2025 at 3:32 PM
The self-brain rot caused by seeing only "red" and "blue" states and ignoring poor Mississippi and Georgia.
Time for the true Post Election ritual, listening to @the-downballot.com podcast! If you are in line to download, stay in line! www.the-downballot.com/p/7f6cba09-5...
The Downballot
Covering every election, from kickoff to call. Click to read The Downballot, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.
www.the-downballot.com
November 6, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Time for the true Post Election ritual, listening to @the-downballot.com podcast! If you are in line to download, stay in line! www.the-downballot.com/p/7f6cba09-5...
Wow this is my Roman Empire! But WILL THEY HAVE GARFIELD'S CROSSDRESSING SPY LOVER?
I binge-capped the new Netflix series DEATH BY LIGHTNING for @vulture. Tremendously entertaining show about our American tradition of progress being undone by violent, fame-seeking dipshits. www.vulture.com/article/deat...
Death by Lightning Series-Premiere Recap: A Man Can Be Anyone
Two very different sorts of narcissist — the 20th U.S. president and the man who shot him — set off on a crash course for the history books.
www.vulture.com
November 6, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Wow this is my Roman Empire! But WILL THEY HAVE GARFIELD'S CROSSDRESSING SPY LOVER?
“Even in deep-red Idaho, voters ousted a West Ada school board member. This district made national news earlier this year when school administrators ordered a teacher here to remove a poster (www.idahostatesman.com/news/local/e...) that featured multiracial hands & read, “Everyone Is Welcome Here.”
November 6, 2025 at 2:40 PM
“Even in deep-red Idaho, voters ousted a West Ada school board member. This district made national news earlier this year when school administrators ordered a teacher here to remove a poster (www.idahostatesman.com/news/local/e...) that featured multiracial hands & read, “Everyone Is Welcome Here.”