The Trade War Lab
@tradewarlab.bsky.social
Global Trade, Local Consequences. | Analyzing trade politics through research, analysis, engagement, and innovation.
Supported by the University of Kansas.
Supported by the University of Kansas.
Pinned
Trade War Lab | Substack
Analyzing trade politics through research, analysis, engagement, and innovation. Supported by the University of Kansas. Click to read Trade War Lab, a Substack publication. Launched a day ago.
tradewarlab.com
🚨 We are excited to announce the launch of the Trade War Lab Substack 📈🌏
🔔 Subscribe here: tradewarlab.com
🔗 Or follow us on X @TradeWarLab
Let’s make sense of the chaos — together.
#TradeWar #tariffs #geoeconomics #substack
🔔 Subscribe here: tradewarlab.com
🔗 Or follow us on X @TradeWarLab
Let’s make sense of the chaos — together.
#TradeWar #tariffs #geoeconomics #substack
Reposted by The Trade War Lab
"Trump said he got a commitment from Xi to purchase soybeans from American farmers, curb the flow of fentanyl and postpone its export restrictions on rare earths" But that TikTok "deal" remains in limbo.... www.politico.com/news/2025/10...
‘Amazing meeting’: Trump touts progress on multiple fronts with China after meeting Xi
The president said the meeting with the Chinese leader exceeded expectations, and he lowered the tariff rate.
www.politico.com
October 30, 2025 at 11:06 AM
"Trump said he got a commitment from Xi to purchase soybeans from American farmers, curb the flow of fentanyl and postpone its export restrictions on rare earths" But that TikTok "deal" remains in limbo.... www.politico.com/news/2025/10...
Reposted by The Trade War Lab
America’s Soybean Farmers Are Panicking Over Loss of Chinese Buyers
* China hasn’t booked any U.S. soybean purchases in months
* Without a deal soon, one farmer warns of “a bloodbath”
* The economics are bad enough that some farmers are already calling it quits
www.wsj.com/economy/trad...
* China hasn’t booked any U.S. soybean purchases in months
* Without a deal soon, one farmer warns of “a bloodbath”
* The economics are bad enough that some farmers are already calling it quits
www.wsj.com/economy/trad...
America’s Soybean Farmers Are Panicking Over the Loss of Chinese Buyers
China, the world’s biggest soybean buyer, hasn’t booked any U.S. soybean purchases in months. Farmers warn of a “bloodbath.”
www.wsj.com
October 7, 2025 at 11:49 PM
America’s Soybean Farmers Are Panicking Over Loss of Chinese Buyers
* China hasn’t booked any U.S. soybean purchases in months
* Without a deal soon, one farmer warns of “a bloodbath”
* The economics are bad enough that some farmers are already calling it quits
www.wsj.com/economy/trad...
* China hasn’t booked any U.S. soybean purchases in months
* Without a deal soon, one farmer warns of “a bloodbath”
* The economics are bad enough that some farmers are already calling it quits
www.wsj.com/economy/trad...
Reposted by The Trade War Lab
"A Country-Specific View of Tariffs" via @NewYorkFed libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2025/10/a-co...
"the bulk of cross-country differences in tariff rates is explained by two factors: the U.S.-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement and differing sales shares in tariff-exempt categories"
"the bulk of cross-country differences in tariff rates is explained by two factors: the U.S.-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement and differing sales shares in tariff-exempt categories"
October 7, 2025 at 11:46 AM
"A Country-Specific View of Tariffs" via @NewYorkFed libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2025/10/a-co...
"the bulk of cross-country differences in tariff rates is explained by two factors: the U.S.-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement and differing sales shares in tariff-exempt categories"
"the bulk of cross-country differences in tariff rates is explained by two factors: the U.S.-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement and differing sales shares in tariff-exempt categories"
Reposted by The Trade War Lab
At least through July 2025, US firms were absorbing most of the tariff burden through compressed spreads between the cost of imported goods paid by the firms & selling prices they received. Read: https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2025/who-paying-trumps-tariffs-so-far-its-us-businesses
Who is paying for Trump's tariffs? So far, it's US businesses.
President Donald Trump promised during his recent campaign to impose steep tariffs on other countries, assuring voters that the cost would be paid by foreign sellers, not Americans. In September 2024,...
www.piie.com
September 21, 2025 at 3:36 PM
At least through July 2025, US firms were absorbing most of the tariff burden through compressed spreads between the cost of imported goods paid by the firms & selling prices they received. Read: https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2025/who-paying-trumps-tariffs-so-far-its-us-businesses
Reposted by The Trade War Lab
The president’s tariff taxes have sent grocery prices soaring and devastated American farmers nationwide.
Now, he needs $50 BILLION to fix his mistake.
And you wonder how he bankrupted numerous businesses…
www.politico.com/news/2025/10...
Now, he needs $50 BILLION to fix his mistake.
And you wonder how he bankrupted numerous businesses…
www.politico.com/news/2025/10...
Trump making plans to send billions in cash bailouts to farmers with taxpayer money
The president has also said he wants to use direct tariff revenue for the payments, but that could trigger a major fight in Congress.
www.politico.com
October 3, 2025 at 7:57 PM
The president’s tariff taxes have sent grocery prices soaring and devastated American farmers nationwide.
Now, he needs $50 BILLION to fix his mistake.
And you wonder how he bankrupted numerous businesses…
www.politico.com/news/2025/10...
Now, he needs $50 BILLION to fix his mistake.
And you wonder how he bankrupted numerous businesses…
www.politico.com/news/2025/10...
Reposted by The Trade War Lab
Tariff impact beginning to show in prices
⚡Citigroup estimates firms have eaten 60% of tariff cost, but that will flip to 40%, with rest paid by consumers
⚡AutoZone tells investors customers will be willing to pay it, since cars won't start without needed parts
www.ft.com/content/f4bd...
⚡Citigroup estimates firms have eaten 60% of tariff cost, but that will flip to 40%, with rest paid by consumers
⚡AutoZone tells investors customers will be willing to pay it, since cars won't start without needed parts
www.ft.com/content/f4bd...
Impact of Trump tariffs is beginning to show in US consumer prices
Trade levies are starting to drive up costs for goods from cans of soup to car parts
www.ft.com
October 6, 2025 at 2:52 PM
Tariff impact beginning to show in prices
⚡Citigroup estimates firms have eaten 60% of tariff cost, but that will flip to 40%, with rest paid by consumers
⚡AutoZone tells investors customers will be willing to pay it, since cars won't start without needed parts
www.ft.com/content/f4bd...
⚡Citigroup estimates firms have eaten 60% of tariff cost, but that will flip to 40%, with rest paid by consumers
⚡AutoZone tells investors customers will be willing to pay it, since cars won't start without needed parts
www.ft.com/content/f4bd...
Reposted by The Trade War Lab
Indigenous Nations Plan Tariff-Free Trade Corridor Across US-Canada border www.motherjones.com/politics/202...
Indigenous Nations Plan Tariff-Free Trade Corridor Across US-Canada border
“We’re not begging for crumbs anymore. We’re demanding what’s rightly ours."
www.motherjones.com
October 5, 2025 at 6:54 PM
Indigenous Nations Plan Tariff-Free Trade Corridor Across US-Canada border www.motherjones.com/politics/202...
How are the US and Japan de-risking with China?
Despite targeting many of the same sectors, their approaches reveal fundamentally different priorities.
A thread on what the legislative data shows: 🧵
www.tradewarlab.com/p/the-politi...
Despite targeting many of the same sectors, their approaches reveal fundamentally different priorities.
A thread on what the legislative data shows: 🧵
www.tradewarlab.com/p/the-politi...
The Politics of De-Risking
As Washington and Tokyo tighten controls on trade with China, their approaches reveal both shared anxieties and strikingly different priorities.
www.tradewarlab.com
October 8, 2025 at 2:34 PM
How are the US and Japan de-risking with China?
Despite targeting many of the same sectors, their approaches reveal fundamentally different priorities.
A thread on what the legislative data shows: 🧵
www.tradewarlab.com/p/the-politi...
Despite targeting many of the same sectors, their approaches reveal fundamentally different priorities.
A thread on what the legislative data shows: 🧵
www.tradewarlab.com/p/the-politi...
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results: the Trump administration has launched new Section 232 investigations into imports of robotics, industrial machinery, and medical devices. #tradewar
www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...
www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...
US opens tariff probes into medical equipment, robotics, industrial machinery
The U.S. Commerce Department said on Wednesday it has opened new national security investigations into the import of personal protective equipment, medical items, robotics and industrial machinery.
www.reuters.com
September 25, 2025 at 1:06 PM
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results: the Trump administration has launched new Section 232 investigations into imports of robotics, industrial machinery, and medical devices. #tradewar
www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...
www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...
Reposted by The Trade War Lab
NEW: Data suggest US businesses have absorbed most of the tariff costs through July 2025, not foreign sellers.
There is very little support for Trump’s thesis that foreign sellers are absorbing tariffs by lowering their prices on US imports.
More:
There is very little support for Trump’s thesis that foreign sellers are absorbing tariffs by lowering their prices on US imports.
More:
Who is paying for Trump's tariffs? So far, it's US businesses.
President Donald Trump promised during his recent campaign to impose steep tariffs on other countries, assuring voters that the cost would be paid by foreign sellers, not Americans. In September 2024,...
www.piie.com
September 16, 2025 at 3:48 PM
NEW: Data suggest US businesses have absorbed most of the tariff costs through July 2025, not foreign sellers.
There is very little support for Trump’s thesis that foreign sellers are absorbing tariffs by lowering their prices on US imports.
More:
There is very little support for Trump’s thesis that foreign sellers are absorbing tariffs by lowering their prices on US imports.
More:
Reposted by The Trade War Lab
If you want to understand the trade war, tariffs, what's happened and what might come next, talk to an international trade law expert. That's what I did when Raj Bhala appeared on the latest episode of our When Experts Attack podcast. whenexpertsattack.libsyn.com/trumps-trade...
When Experts Attack!: Trump’s trade war didn’t come from nowhere
International trade expert Raj Bhala assesses the greatest disruption in trade since the end of World War II and asks whether manufacturing will really return to the U.S.
whenexpertsattack.libsyn.com
August 29, 2025 at 8:52 PM
If you want to understand the trade war, tariffs, what's happened and what might come next, talk to an international trade law expert. That's what I did when Raj Bhala appeared on the latest episode of our When Experts Attack podcast. whenexpertsattack.libsyn.com/trumps-trade...
Reposted by The Trade War Lab
How is China reshaping the global economic order?
Ka Zeng (@umassamherst.bsky.social) discusses China’s role in the global economy amid economic competition with the U.S.
▶️ Watch: https://www.ncuscr.org/video/china-global-economy/
Ka Zeng (@umassamherst.bsky.social) discusses China’s role in the global economy amid economic competition with the U.S.
▶️ Watch: https://www.ncuscr.org/video/china-global-economy/
China’s Strategic Advances in the Global Economy
Ka Zeng discusses China’s role in the global economy amid economic competition with the U.S.
www.ncuscr.org
September 5, 2025 at 8:05 PM
How is China reshaping the global economic order?
Ka Zeng (@umassamherst.bsky.social) discusses China’s role in the global economy amid economic competition with the U.S.
▶️ Watch: https://www.ncuscr.org/video/china-global-economy/
Ka Zeng (@umassamherst.bsky.social) discusses China’s role in the global economy amid economic competition with the U.S.
▶️ Watch: https://www.ncuscr.org/video/china-global-economy/
Reposted by The Trade War Lab
From groceries to energy bills, Trump's tariffs and economic chaos are increasing costs for Americans.
September 15, 2025 at 10:27 PM
From groceries to energy bills, Trump's tariffs and economic chaos are increasing costs for Americans.
Reposted by The Trade War Lab
Tariffs are bad. Illegal ones are worse. (via Bloomberg Opinion)
Liberation Day Tariffs Are an Increasingly Costly Mistake
The Supreme Court may soon strike down the president’s signature trade plan. It’s for the best.
bloom.bg
September 17, 2025 at 10:30 AM
Tariffs are bad. Illegal ones are worse. (via Bloomberg Opinion)
Reposted by The Trade War Lab
During Trump’s first trade war (2018–2020), China hit U.S. farmers with tariffs on soybeans and other crops. Exports collapsed. Prices fell.
Logic says farmers should’ve shifted away. Many didn’t. Some even planted more. Why? 👇
www.tradewarlab.com/p/why-farmer...
Logic says farmers should’ve shifted away. Many didn’t. Some even planted more. Why? 👇
www.tradewarlab.com/p/why-farmer...
Why Farmers Kept Planting Crops China Wouldn’t Buy
How partisan loyalty shaped farmers’ planting decisions during the U.S.–China trade war.
www.tradewarlab.com
September 4, 2025 at 1:51 AM
During Trump’s first trade war (2018–2020), China hit U.S. farmers with tariffs on soybeans and other crops. Exports collapsed. Prices fell.
Logic says farmers should’ve shifted away. Many didn’t. Some even planted more. Why? 👇
www.tradewarlab.com/p/why-farmer...
Logic says farmers should’ve shifted away. Many didn’t. Some even planted more. Why? 👇
www.tradewarlab.com/p/why-farmer...
America’s protectionist turn has accelerated at historic speed.
Tariffs now average 15.8%, the steepest rise since the 1930s, surpassing even Smoot-Hawley
We review the #economics literature to understand the causes & consequences of the free trade backlash!
www.tradewarlab.com/p/assessing-...
Tariffs now average 15.8%, the steepest rise since the 1930s, surpassing even Smoot-Hawley
We review the #economics literature to understand the causes & consequences of the free trade backlash!
www.tradewarlab.com/p/assessing-...
Assessing the Costs of America’s Protectionist Turn
Tracing back trade expansion
www.tradewarlab.com
September 17, 2025 at 3:47 PM
America’s protectionist turn has accelerated at historic speed.
Tariffs now average 15.8%, the steepest rise since the 1930s, surpassing even Smoot-Hawley
We review the #economics literature to understand the causes & consequences of the free trade backlash!
www.tradewarlab.com/p/assessing-...
Tariffs now average 15.8%, the steepest rise since the 1930s, surpassing even Smoot-Hawley
We review the #economics literature to understand the causes & consequences of the free trade backlash!
www.tradewarlab.com/p/assessing-...
Corporate influence has quietly become a defining feature of US–China trade tensions.
Trade War Lab data shows that as tariffs uncertainty & industrial policy mounted American firms dramatically expanded their lobbying of the US Trade Representative (USTR).
www.tradewarlab.com/p/how-corpor...
Trade War Lab data shows that as tariffs uncertainty & industrial policy mounted American firms dramatically expanded their lobbying of the US Trade Representative (USTR).
www.tradewarlab.com/p/how-corpor...
How Corporate Influence Reacts to U.S.–China Trade Policy
New Trade War Lab data sheds light on how American firms are lobbying the USTR.
www.tradewarlab.com
September 11, 2025 at 4:05 AM
Corporate influence has quietly become a defining feature of US–China trade tensions.
Trade War Lab data shows that as tariffs uncertainty & industrial policy mounted American firms dramatically expanded their lobbying of the US Trade Representative (USTR).
www.tradewarlab.com/p/how-corpor...
Trade War Lab data shows that as tariffs uncertainty & industrial policy mounted American firms dramatically expanded their lobbying of the US Trade Representative (USTR).
www.tradewarlab.com/p/how-corpor...
Reposted by The Trade War Lab
Tariffs can’t bend the laws of nature. Bananas need tropics, coffee needs altitude. You can't onshore these things. So tariffs just raise prices. The White House just worked this out.
So we're getting carveouts. But only if you do a deal with the White House.
www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...
So we're getting carveouts. But only if you do a deal with the White House.
www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...
September 7, 2025 at 5:56 PM
Tariffs can’t bend the laws of nature. Bananas need tropics, coffee needs altitude. You can't onshore these things. So tariffs just raise prices. The White House just worked this out.
So we're getting carveouts. But only if you do a deal with the White House.
www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...
So we're getting carveouts. But only if you do a deal with the White House.
www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...
Reposted by The Trade War Lab
On the latest “When Experts Attack!” episode, @universityofkansas.bsky.social trade law expert Raj Bhala addresses “the greatest disruption in trade since the end of World War II,” including what tariffs mean for Canada. Listen and subscribe.
whenexpertsattack.libsyn.com/trumps-trade...
whenexpertsattack.libsyn.com/trumps-trade...
September 3, 2025 at 5:32 PM
On the latest “When Experts Attack!” episode, @universityofkansas.bsky.social trade law expert Raj Bhala addresses “the greatest disruption in trade since the end of World War II,” including what tariffs mean for Canada. Listen and subscribe.
whenexpertsattack.libsyn.com/trumps-trade...
whenexpertsattack.libsyn.com/trumps-trade...
Reposted by The Trade War Lab
Strong trade keeps peace strong. "Commercial wars always present the possibility of turning into shooting wars. That is one of the main reasons we created first the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and its institutional successor, the WTO, in the first place". Read more from James Bacchus ⬇️
Please, don’t abandon the World Trade Organization
Michael Froman, former U.S. trade representative and current president of the Council on Foreign Relations, has called for the abandonment of the rule-based international trading system overseen by…
thehill.com
September 2, 2025 at 9:40 PM
Strong trade keeps peace strong. "Commercial wars always present the possibility of turning into shooting wars. That is one of the main reasons we created first the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and its institutional successor, the WTO, in the first place". Read more from James Bacchus ⬇️
Reposted by The Trade War Lab
President Trump’s tariffs are raising government revenues, but how much is the US Treasury actually collecting from US importers after the starts, stops, delays, exclusions, & other factors? And what products & countries are hit? We explore: https://bit.ly/45QWyPc
Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit?
piie.com
August 28, 2025 at 6:38 PM
President Trump’s tariffs are raising government revenues, but how much is the US Treasury actually collecting from US importers after the starts, stops, delays, exclusions, & other factors? And what products & countries are hit? We explore: https://bit.ly/45QWyPc
Reposted by The Trade War Lab
🚨 We are excited to announce the launch of the Trade War Lab Substack 📈🌏
🔔 Subscribe here: tradewarlab.com
🔗 Or follow us on X @TradeWarLab
Let’s make sense of the chaos — together.
#TradeWar #tariffs #geoeconomics #substack
🔔 Subscribe here: tradewarlab.com
🔗 Or follow us on X @TradeWarLab
Let’s make sense of the chaos — together.
#TradeWar #tariffs #geoeconomics #substack
Trade War Lab | Substack
Analyzing trade politics through research, analysis, engagement, and innovation. Supported by the University of Kansas. Click to read Trade War Lab, a Substack publication. Launched a day ago.
tradewarlab.com
August 12, 2025 at 5:18 PM
🚨 We are excited to announce the launch of the Trade War Lab Substack 📈🌏
🔔 Subscribe here: tradewarlab.com
🔗 Or follow us on X @TradeWarLab
Let’s make sense of the chaos — together.
#TradeWar #tariffs #geoeconomics #substack
🔔 Subscribe here: tradewarlab.com
🔗 Or follow us on X @TradeWarLab
Let’s make sense of the chaos — together.
#TradeWar #tariffs #geoeconomics #substack
Reposted by The Trade War Lab
US manufacturing contracts for sixth straight month amid tariff drag reut.rs/3UWrCbf
US manufacturing contracts for sixth straight month amid tariff drag
U.S. manufacturing contracted for a sixth straight month in August as factories dealt with the fallout from the Trump administration's import tariffs, with some manufacturers describing the current business environment as "much worse than the Great Recession."
reut.rs
September 2, 2025 at 4:35 PM
US manufacturing contracts for sixth straight month amid tariff drag reut.rs/3UWrCbf
During Trump’s first trade war (2018–2020), China hit U.S. farmers with tariffs on soybeans and other crops. Exports collapsed. Prices fell.
Logic says farmers should’ve shifted away. Many didn’t. Some even planted more. Why? 👇
www.tradewarlab.com/p/why-farmer...
Logic says farmers should’ve shifted away. Many didn’t. Some even planted more. Why? 👇
www.tradewarlab.com/p/why-farmer...
Why Farmers Kept Planting Crops China Wouldn’t Buy
How partisan loyalty shaped farmers’ planting decisions during the U.S.–China trade war.
www.tradewarlab.com
September 4, 2025 at 1:51 AM
During Trump’s first trade war (2018–2020), China hit U.S. farmers with tariffs on soybeans and other crops. Exports collapsed. Prices fell.
Logic says farmers should’ve shifted away. Many didn’t. Some even planted more. Why? 👇
www.tradewarlab.com/p/why-farmer...
Logic says farmers should’ve shifted away. Many didn’t. Some even planted more. Why? 👇
www.tradewarlab.com/p/why-farmer...
Reposted by The Trade War Lab
The Trump administration's steel tariffs came with a massive surge in steel industry lobbying expenditures. Coincidence? Clark Packard follows the money trail showing how K Street and steelmakers coordinated to boost prices at everyone else's expense 📈
Protectionist Elites Enrich Themselves at the Economy’s Broader Expense
Much of US trade policy for the last 60 years can be explained through the power and influence of the domestic steel industry. Over that period, Washington—to the cheers of industry lobbyists—has...
www.cato.org
August 27, 2025 at 7:05 PM
The Trump administration's steel tariffs came with a massive surge in steel industry lobbying expenditures. Coincidence? Clark Packard follows the money trail showing how K Street and steelmakers coordinated to boost prices at everyone else's expense 📈