Tim Farrar
@tmfassociates.bsky.social
Consultant in satellite communications and wireless spectrum. I enjoy annoying billionaires.
Pinned
Tim Farrar
@tmfassociates.bsky.social
· Jul 6
TMF Associates blog » Back to blogging…
tmfassociates.com
Decided it was about time to get back to blogging, as the audience is fragmenting and its getting harder and harder to find threads, especially on X, and I thought it would be useful to highlight some of my recent research publications tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/07...
Reposted by Tim Farrar
Elon has apparently finally abandoned his 20 year long assertion that he was just about to build a city on Mars any day now :-)
February 9, 2026 at 6:59 AM
Elon has apparently finally abandoned his 20 year long assertion that he was just about to build a city on Mars any day now :-)
The Super Bowl ad situation reminds me of last summer when DT vetoed TMUS buying EchoStar spectrum so SpaceX had to buy it instead...
February 9, 2026 at 1:07 AM
The Super Bowl ad situation reminds me of last summer when DT vetoed TMUS buying EchoStar spectrum so SpaceX had to buy it instead...
I guess the Italians are getting dearMoon vibes about now...
February 9, 2026 at 12:11 AM
I guess the Italians are getting dearMoon vibes about now...
My new blog post on the problem with Starship and orbital data centers tmfassociates.com/blog/2026/02...
February 8, 2026 at 10:34 PM
My new blog post on the problem with Starship and orbital data centers tmfassociates.com/blog/2026/02...
Reposted by Tim Farrar
Smart to give @tmfassociates.bsky.social the last word about Elon:
“The whole thing relies on confidence in him,” Farrar said. “If any piece of his empire was to fall by the wayside or go bankrupt, then it would undermine everything.”
“The whole thing relies on confidence in him,” Farrar said. “If any piece of his empire was to fall by the wayside or go bankrupt, then it would undermine everything.”
space based data centers are the new humanoid robot that can be your babysitter-surgeon-crime-preventer. www.cnbc.com/2026/02/02/m...
Musk's xAI needs SpaceX deal for the money. Data centers in space are still a dream
In merging SpaceX with xAI, Elon Musk may be providing his artificial intelligence startup with a much-needed cash infusion.
www.cnbc.com
February 3, 2026 at 5:41 AM
Smart to give @tmfassociates.bsky.social the last word about Elon:
“The whole thing relies on confidence in him,” Farrar said. “If any piece of his empire was to fall by the wayside or go bankrupt, then it would undermine everything.”
“The whole thing relies on confidence in him,” Farrar said. “If any piece of his empire was to fall by the wayside or go bankrupt, then it would undermine everything.”
With my comments on the merger...
Musk's xAI needs SpaceX deal for the money. Data centers in space are still a dream
Musk's xAI needs SpaceX deal for the money. Data centers in space are still a dream
In merging SpaceX with xAI, Elon Musk may be providing his artificial intelligence startup with a much-needed cash infusion.
cnb.cx
February 3, 2026 at 3:34 AM
With my comments on the merger...
Reposted by Tim Farrar
"It’s also undeniable that SpaceX needs more than just Starlink to justify a $1.5T valuation, given that even its expected lead investment bank, Morgan Stanley, only thinks Starlink revenues will get to $126B in 2040." -- this is the sharpest thing i've read about the SpaceX IPO yet #linklog
TMF Associates blog » SpaceX’s Rorschach test
tmfassociates.com
January 21, 2026 at 3:21 PM
"It’s also undeniable that SpaceX needs more than just Starlink to justify a $1.5T valuation, given that even its expected lead investment bank, Morgan Stanley, only thinks Starlink revenues will get to $126B in 2040." -- this is the sharpest thing i've read about the SpaceX IPO yet #linklog
Good debate on SpaceX's IPO prospects interactive.satellitetoday.com/via/january-...
The Key Questions for a Potential SpaceX IPO in 2026: Analyst Roundtable | January/February 2026
interactive.satellitetoday.com
January 20, 2026 at 7:01 PM
Good debate on SpaceX's IPO prospects interactive.satellitetoday.com/via/january-...
Reposted by Tim Farrar
Lufthansa Group announced it'll install Elon Musk's Starlink Wi-Fi across its *entire* fleet.
Notably, this isn't just for Lufthansa or the big core LHG airlines. It's a deal for ~850 aircraft across the entire group, even Air Dolomiti.
Installs begin later this year, done by 2029.
Notably, this isn't just for Lufthansa or the big core LHG airlines. It's a deal for ~850 aircraft across the entire group, even Air Dolomiti.
Installs begin later this year, done by 2029.
January 13, 2026 at 1:56 PM
Lufthansa Group announced it'll install Elon Musk's Starlink Wi-Fi across its *entire* fleet.
Notably, this isn't just for Lufthansa or the big core LHG airlines. It's a deal for ~850 aircraft across the entire group, even Air Dolomiti.
Installs begin later this year, done by 2029.
Notably, this isn't just for Lufthansa or the big core LHG airlines. It's a deal for ~850 aircraft across the entire group, even Air Dolomiti.
Installs begin later this year, done by 2029.
My new blog post on how space-based data centers are a Rorschach test for potential SpaceX IPO investors tmfassociates.com/blog/2026/01...
TMF Associates blog » SpaceX’s Rorschach test
tmfassociates.com
January 4, 2026 at 8:16 PM
My new blog post on how space-based data centers are a Rorschach test for potential SpaceX IPO investors tmfassociates.com/blog/2026/01...
I enjoy annoying billionaires...
September 9, 2025 at 5:52 PM
I enjoy annoying billionaires...
Thoughts on the fascinating EchoStar-SpaceX deal today tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/09...
TMF Associates blog » SpaceX disrupts everyone’s plans again…
tmfassociates.com
September 8, 2025 at 1:58 PM
Thoughts on the fascinating EchoStar-SpaceX deal today tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/09...
Reposted by Tim Farrar
🛰️🚀 ViaSat-3 F2 is scheduled to launch in the second half of October aboard United Launch Alliance (ULA)'s Atlas V551 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, and is anticipated to provide more bandwidth capacity than the entire existing fleet when it comes into service. More: https://vsat.co/4mH64eZ
September 4, 2025 at 12:45 PM
🛰️🚀 ViaSat-3 F2 is scheduled to launch in the second half of October aboard United Launch Alliance (ULA)'s Atlas V551 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, and is anticipated to provide more bandwidth capacity than the entire existing fleet when it comes into service. More: https://vsat.co/4mH64eZ
Seems like a lot of pressure for everything to go right with the Starship launch (or at least to credibly declare it a success) if it's "part of a broader vision/strategy"
August 22, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Seems like a lot of pressure for everything to go right with the Starship launch (or at least to credibly declare it a success) if it's "part of a broader vision/strategy"
Which company claims to have a whole bunch of F9 launches planned over the next 12 months but never meets their planned schedule for satellite delivery? Maybe the #cluelesscult know?
And if "some planned launches of SpaceX’s Starlink satellites on Falcon 9 rockets would potentially be pushed from the end of this year to early 2026 because of the surge of Falcon engineers working on Starship" good luck to external F9 buyers wanting launch flexibility...
August 20, 2025 at 9:01 PM
Which company claims to have a whole bunch of F9 launches planned over the next 12 months but never meets their planned schedule for satellite delivery? Maybe the #cluelesscult know?
This is fascinating, especially noting reduction in SpaceX valuation from $500B whisper number earlier this year. I don't think its wise to do more V2 Starships that blow up as a "learning opportunity" if that hurts public perceptions of progress finance.yahoo.com/news/spacex-...
SpaceX’s Expensive Starship Explosions Are Starting to Add Up
Shortly after the incident, roughly 20% of the engineering group working on the company’s flagship Falcon 9 program were reassigned for six months to Starship, a reusable rocket Musk hopes will someda...
finance.yahoo.com
August 20, 2025 at 8:35 PM
This is fascinating, especially noting reduction in SpaceX valuation from $500B whisper number earlier this year. I don't think its wise to do more V2 Starships that blow up as a "learning opportunity" if that hurts public perceptions of progress finance.yahoo.com/news/spacex-...
A Freakonomics podcast on the economics of satellite, featuring Rachel Jewett and me freakonomics.com/podcast/sate...
Satellites - Freakonomics
Satellites - Freakonomics
freakonomics.com
August 18, 2025 at 1:30 AM
A Freakonomics podcast on the economics of satellite, featuring Rachel Jewett and me freakonomics.com/podcast/sate...
Analysis: Is AST SpaceMobile launch schedule a pipedream?
www.mobileworldlive.com/ast-spacemob...
www.mobileworldlive.com/ast-spacemob...
Analysis: Is AST SpaceMobile launch schedule a pipedream?
AST SpaceMobile has an aggressive schedule for the launch of its Block2 Bluebird LEO satellites but there could be a hitch in its plans.
www.mobileworldlive.com
August 15, 2025 at 10:06 PM
Analysis: Is AST SpaceMobile launch schedule a pipedream?
www.mobileworldlive.com/ast-spacemob...
www.mobileworldlive.com/ast-spacemob...
Striking developments in the Ligado bankruptcy case today, as a dispute breaks out between Viasat and AST over whether AST will be able to try and compete with Viasat in L-band outside the US. My new blog post tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/08...
TMF Associates blog » Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it…
tmfassociates.com
August 15, 2025 at 6:40 AM
Striking developments in the Ligado bankruptcy case today, as a dispute breaks out between Viasat and AST over whether AST will be able to try and compete with Viasat in L-band outside the US. My new blog post tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/08...
What's the key takeaway from AST's results announcement (other than the 2-3 month slip)? Now they only talk about making 40 sets of microns & don't say anything about completing the actual satellites. Not a surprise given the pending redesign challenges for FM3
August 12, 2025 at 5:27 AM
What's the key takeaway from AST's results announcement (other than the 2-3 month slip)? Now they only talk about making 40 sets of microns & don't say anything about completing the actual satellites. Not a surprise given the pending redesign challenges for FM3
My new blog post on Globalstar's launch delays and the potential implications for EchoStar's pending decision on launch contracts tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/08...
TMF Associates blog » Choose carefully Charlie…
tmfassociates.com
August 9, 2025 at 6:31 AM
My new blog post on Globalstar's launch delays and the potential implications for EchoStar's pending decision on launch contracts tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/08...
I've now published my new 100+ page report on everything you wanted to know about D2D but were afraid to ask, where I discuss the implications of EchoStar's announcement yesterday tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/08...
TMF Associates blog » Everything you wanted to know about D2D but were afraid to ask…
tmfassociates.com
August 2, 2025 at 5:38 PM
I've now published my new 100+ page report on everything you wanted to know about D2D but were afraid to ask, where I discuss the implications of EchoStar's announcement yesterday tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/08...
Reposted by Tim Farrar
Investor argued that Viasat is being priced as a challenged #satcom firm, and the market is “barely” valuing its defense part.
"The firm’s analysis found that the defense business alone could support a valuation of over $50/share, which is more than 3 times the current stock price."
"The firm’s analysis found that the defense business alone could support a valuation of over $50/share, which is more than 3 times the current stock price."
Viasat Investor Advocates for Spin-Off of Defense Business
An investor in Viasat called for a spin-off of its Defense and Advanced Technologies (DAT) business, calling it undervalued.
www.satellitetoday.com
August 1, 2025 at 6:58 AM
Investor argued that Viasat is being priced as a challenged #satcom firm, and the market is “barely” valuing its defense part.
"The firm’s analysis found that the defense business alone could support a valuation of over $50/share, which is more than 3 times the current stock price."
"The firm’s analysis found that the defense business alone could support a valuation of over $50/share, which is more than 3 times the current stock price."