Tim Farrar
@tmfassociates.bsky.social
Consultant in satellite communications and wireless spectrum. I enjoy annoying billionaires.
I enjoy annoying billionaires...
September 9, 2025 at 5:52 PM
I enjoy annoying billionaires...
Seems like a lot of pressure for everything to go right with the Starship launch (or at least to credibly declare it a success) if it's "part of a broader vision/strategy"
August 22, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Seems like a lot of pressure for everything to go right with the Starship launch (or at least to credibly declare it a success) if it's "part of a broader vision/strategy"
My assumption is the 2024 revenue was held back for a future story. But the stuff about not paying tax doesn't consider the differences between pre and post 2017 losses (those later ones don't allow corporations to pay zero tax)
August 17, 2025 at 2:57 PM
My assumption is the 2024 revenue was held back for a future story. But the stuff about not paying tax doesn't consider the differences between pre and post 2017 losses (those later ones don't allow corporations to pay zero tax)
The company's current forecast now aligns with what I suggested was the best case launch schedule in my D2D report two weeks ago tmfassociates.com/blog/wp-cont...
August 13, 2025 at 8:40 PM
The company's current forecast now aligns with what I suggested was the best case launch schedule in my D2D report two weeks ago tmfassociates.com/blog/wp-cont...
The company has given us their schedule for launches through the end of 2026, at best that's another ~41 satellites (45-60 includes the BB1s)
August 12, 2025 at 11:03 AM
The company has given us their schedule for launches through the end of 2026, at best that's another ~41 satellites (45-60 includes the BB1s)
"The Enron Intelligent Network's global fiber & satellite distribution & embedded software intelligence sets it apart from other network providers. The EIN bypasses traditional fragmented and bottlenecked public Internet routes to deliver faster, higher-quality data"
July 15, 2025 at 2:16 PM
"The Enron Intelligent Network's global fiber & satellite distribution & embedded software intelligence sets it apart from other network providers. The EIN bypasses traditional fragmented and bottlenecked public Internet routes to deliver faster, higher-quality data"
Just to highlight how silly the nonsense $2.5T valuation model is, companies with $2.6B of free cash flow don't need to do new primary equity rounds... finance.yahoo.com/news/spacex-...
July 8, 2025 at 8:53 PM
Just to highlight how silly the nonsense $2.5T valuation model is, companies with $2.6B of free cash flow don't need to do new primary equity rounds... finance.yahoo.com/news/spacex-...
Actually this is exactly what the #cluelesscult do, they even have a red A symbol to show they are in the cult...
June 25, 2025 at 7:27 PM
Actually this is exactly what the #cluelesscult do, they even have a red A symbol to show they are in the cult...
But look he went to Yale...
June 21, 2025 at 4:08 AM
But look he went to Yale...
But they have a nonsense SpaceX valuation to promote in which base TAM numbers are off by a factor of 10: it assumes 0.5Mbps provisioning/user (no better than Viasat/Hughes today). Starlink already provisions >2Mbps per user & that has to be ~5Mbps to compete with developed market terrestrial BB
June 20, 2025 at 9:16 PM
But they have a nonsense SpaceX valuation to promote in which base TAM numbers are off by a factor of 10: it assumes 0.5Mbps provisioning/user (no better than Viasat/Hughes today). Starlink already provisions >2Mbps per user & that has to be ~5Mbps to compete with developed market terrestrial BB
But "they're both rockets" LOL
June 20, 2025 at 8:32 PM
But "they're both rockets" LOL
It's important to realize there are real people who will tell you that the next Starship launch has a 75% chance of "success" without defining that term. But their ridiculous model uses Falcon 1&9 where "success" means getting to orbit. Starship hasn't done that yet.
June 20, 2025 at 8:30 PM
It's important to realize there are real people who will tell you that the next Starship launch has a 75% chance of "success" without defining that term. But their ridiculous model uses Falcon 1&9 where "success" means getting to orbit. Starship hasn't done that yet.
This is just ridiculous. It ignores the 100% Starship failure rate to date and instead assumes it's like Falcon with only a 25% chance of failure??? Is Starship much harder than Falcon or not? You can't have it both ways...
June 20, 2025 at 6:01 PM
This is just ridiculous. It ignores the 100% Starship failure rate to date and instead assumes it's like Falcon with only a 25% chance of failure??? Is Starship much harder than Falcon or not? You can't have it both ways...
How does SpaceX "work" FCC Commissioners?
June 18, 2025 at 12:21 AM
How does SpaceX "work" FCC Commissioners?
Looks likely that the plan is FM1 and FM2 as single launches then 3-5x3 on F9 and maybe 1 or 2x6 on NG (to fill in the plane of 8). And then they likely have no idea about the design so have said 1 sat per plane (8/n)
June 12, 2025 at 11:53 PM
Looks likely that the plan is FM1 and FM2 as single launches then 3-5x3 on F9 and maybe 1 or 2x6 on NG (to fill in the plane of 8). And then they likely have no idea about the design so have said 1 sat per plane (8/n)
Timing is everything...
June 5, 2025 at 10:44 PM
Timing is everything...
Disputes about satellite spectrum even feature at the Supreme Court... www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/24p...
June 5, 2025 at 3:21 PM
Disputes about satellite spectrum even feature at the Supreme Court... www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/24p...
So will Quilty and Payload Space be revising their numbers back down again? Musk's $15.5B for SpaceX as a whole undoubtedly leans optimistic so $12.3B for Starlink in 2025 is not going to happen
June 4, 2025 at 11:27 AM
So will Quilty and Payload Space be revising their numbers back down again? Musk's $15.5B for SpaceX as a whole undoubtedly leans optimistic so $12.3B for Starlink in 2025 is not going to happen
The irony is that both Quilty and Payload revised their original 2024 rev estimates for Starlink upwards from ~$6.8B to ~$8B at the start of this year. Those are wrong and the earlier numbers were closer
June 4, 2025 at 11:15 AM
The irony is that both Quilty and Payload revised their original 2024 rev estimates for Starlink upwards from ~$6.8B to ~$8B at the start of this year. Those are wrong and the earlier numbers were closer
June 3, 2025 at 10:04 PM
First time we've seen a number giving SpaceX revenue projections for a while. That's probably because this is a whole year later than the company suggested in Nov 2023...
June 3, 2025 at 6:30 PM
First time we've seen a number giving SpaceX revenue projections for a while. That's probably because this is a whole year later than the company suggested in Nov 2023...
BA suggests current inflight WiFi (EAN on short haul) is "intermittent" and hints at changes to take advantage of "exciting things" from "new operators" www.thetimes.com/uk/transport...
June 3, 2025 at 12:36 AM
BA suggests current inflight WiFi (EAN on short haul) is "intermittent" and hints at changes to take advantage of "exciting things" from "new operators" www.thetimes.com/uk/transport...
Posted without comment...
May 28, 2025 at 2:59 AM
Posted without comment...