Steve Rayson
@steverayson.bsky.social
Author of The Fall of the Red Wall and Badgeland. Co-founder Buzzsumo and Kineo. My latest book is Collapse of the Conservatives.
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Steve Rayson
@steverayson.bsky.social
· Dec 5
My new book 'Collapse of the Conservatives: Volatile Voters, Broken Britain and a Punishment Election' is now out! You can get a copy at amzn.to/48fzWsp
Reposted by Steve Rayson
Double whammy of BGE 2024 advent calender posts today (yesterday was the department Christmas party). So far we have learned a little about the campaign - did Labour's tax pledges matter? (not really) How did the campaign go for Labour (not well). Now two posts on how 2024 changed the Commons...
Here's a graph of how party support evolved daily through the campaign in 2024, according to the BES internet panel. The biggest losers from the 2024 campaign were...Labour, who fell from mid 40s to high 30s (and were overstated in final polling). Big winners were Reform, esp post Farage return
December 4, 2025 at 12:41 PM
Double whammy of BGE 2024 advent calender posts today (yesterday was the department Christmas party). So far we have learned a little about the campaign - did Labour's tax pledges matter? (not really) How did the campaign go for Labour (not well). Now two posts on how 2024 changed the Commons...
Reposted by Steve Rayson
If Labour MPs think abstaining or voting against a particular measure will save their seats, I suspect my @qmulsse.bsky.social colleague @philipjcowley.bsky.social has a bridge to sell them.
Rachel Reeves hit by Labour rural rebellion over inheritance tax on farmers
A number of Labour MPs in rural seats declined to back the government's move to impose inheritance tax on farmers, but just one voted against.
news.sky.com
December 3, 2025 at 7:17 AM
If Labour MPs think abstaining or voting against a particular measure will save their seats, I suspect my @qmulsse.bsky.social colleague @philipjcowley.bsky.social has a bridge to sell them.
Reposted by Steve Rayson
Extraordinary WSJ reporting today that unveils the extent to which Trump, Witkoff, Kushner and US business executives are salivating over business deals with Russia while Putin’s forces kidnap Ukranian children and bomb civilians in their apartments.
🎁 www.wsj.com/world/russia...
🎁 www.wsj.com/world/russia...
November 29, 2025 at 12:42 PM
Extraordinary WSJ reporting today that unveils the extent to which Trump, Witkoff, Kushner and US business executives are salivating over business deals with Russia while Putin’s forces kidnap Ukranian children and bomb civilians in their apartments.
🎁 www.wsj.com/world/russia...
🎁 www.wsj.com/world/russia...
Reposted by Steve Rayson
I'm constantly shocked (but not surprised) by how little we discuss the additional financial burden placed on young people by the Clegg-Cameron student loan regime.
@rmcunliffe.bsky.social is one of the few journalists who brings it up continuously - once again in the wake of the budget 👇
@rmcunliffe.bsky.social is one of the few journalists who brings it up continuously - once again in the wake of the budget 👇
Rachel Reeves hits young graduates with a double stealth tax
The Chancellor plans to raise as much money from freezing loan repayment thresholds as from the mansion tax
www.newstatesman.com
November 27, 2025 at 1:04 PM
I'm constantly shocked (but not surprised) by how little we discuss the additional financial burden placed on young people by the Clegg-Cameron student loan regime.
@rmcunliffe.bsky.social is one of the few journalists who brings it up continuously - once again in the wake of the budget 👇
@rmcunliffe.bsky.social is one of the few journalists who brings it up continuously - once again in the wake of the budget 👇
Reposted by Steve Rayson
This was a Budget born of political and intellectual weakness, not strength
Labour has to realise that moving the pieces on the board is not e enough. Affluence is essential for social democracy. And there isn't a plan to create it.
Latest from me 👇
substack.com/home/post/p-...
Labour has to realise that moving the pieces on the board is not e enough. Affluence is essential for social democracy. And there isn't a plan to create it.
Latest from me 👇
substack.com/home/post/p-...
A budget born of weakness, not of strength
Labour needs affluence to remake society. Yet it seems curiously uninterested in creating it.
substack.com
November 27, 2025 at 5:21 PM
This was a Budget born of political and intellectual weakness, not strength
Labour has to realise that moving the pieces on the board is not e enough. Affluence is essential for social democracy. And there isn't a plan to create it.
Latest from me 👇
substack.com/home/post/p-...
Labour has to realise that moving the pieces on the board is not e enough. Affluence is essential for social democracy. And there isn't a plan to create it.
Latest from me 👇
substack.com/home/post/p-...
Reposted by Steve Rayson
we reported after Rayner's departure that employment rights bill would be watered down, and ministers denied it over and over again:
here is the first new major compromise:
www.ft.com/content/3391...
here is the first new major compromise:
www.ft.com/content/3391...
Labour retreats on ‘day one’ rights for workers
Government has softened its package of measures to boost employment rights
www.ft.com
November 27, 2025 at 5:28 PM
we reported after Rayner's departure that employment rights bill would be watered down, and ministers denied it over and over again:
here is the first new major compromise:
www.ft.com/content/3391...
here is the first new major compromise:
www.ft.com/content/3391...
Reposted by Steve Rayson
NEW! How should Labour respond to the two key issues to voters of the economy and immigration and what are the electoral stakes this week of the budget?
Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
November 24, 2025 at 11:02 AM
NEW! How should Labour respond to the two key issues to voters of the economy and immigration and what are the electoral stakes this week of the budget?
Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
Reposted by Steve Rayson
Peter Kyle’s performance on Times Radio is the kind of political interview that makes any sane listener want to chew off their own thumbs.
Politicians have no right to complain about crises of trust when this is how they talk. It’s such a dire way of doing things.
Politicians have no right to complain about crises of trust when this is how they talk. It’s such a dire way of doing things.
November 24, 2025 at 7:17 AM
Peter Kyle’s performance on Times Radio is the kind of political interview that makes any sane listener want to chew off their own thumbs.
Politicians have no right to complain about crises of trust when this is how they talk. It’s such a dire way of doing things.
Politicians have no right to complain about crises of trust when this is how they talk. It’s such a dire way of doing things.
Reposted by Steve Rayson
People voted in a Labour government by a landslide because they wanted something meaningful to change. Labour has, ever since securing that win, done everything in its power to signal it won't change anything very much.
November 21, 2025 at 10:04 PM
People voted in a Labour government by a landslide because they wanted something meaningful to change. Labour has, ever since securing that win, done everything in its power to signal it won't change anything very much.
Reposted by Steve Rayson
It’s not a “peace proposal”. It’s an aggressor’s charter, with the US facilitating the demands of the invader.
It’s very surprising that some people are still calling the Trump peace plan the Witkoff plan. Nothing could be further from the truth. The White House has come out and claimed the plan for its own and said it wants it implemented. www.cnn.com/2025/11/20/p...
Trump’s 28-point peace proposal for Ukraine would require land concessions and military reduction | CNN Politics
A new Trump administration plan for the end of the war in Ukraine would see Kyiv cede territory to Russia, US “de facto” recognition of Crimea and other Ukrainian territory forcibly seized by the Krem...
www.cnn.com
November 21, 2025 at 2:26 PM
It’s not a “peace proposal”. It’s an aggressor’s charter, with the US facilitating the demands of the invader.
Reposted by Steve Rayson
Me: Why are so many students referencing the same paper from 50 years ago that we definitely didn’t cover in class? So weird.
Me after asking the quiz question to ChatGPT: Ah, okay, never mind.
Me after asking the quiz question to ChatGPT: Ah, okay, never mind.
November 20, 2025 at 10:25 PM
Me: Why are so many students referencing the same paper from 50 years ago that we definitely didn’t cover in class? So weird.
Me after asking the quiz question to ChatGPT: Ah, okay, never mind.
Me after asking the quiz question to ChatGPT: Ah, okay, never mind.
The state pension is less than half of the minimum wage. We have to encourage more pension saving, instead Rachel Reeves is proposing to limit salary sacrifice which will reduce pension saving. Just crazy and economically illiterate as it reduces economic investment.
November 20, 2025 at 11:06 AM
The state pension is less than half of the minimum wage. We have to encourage more pension saving, instead Rachel Reeves is proposing to limit salary sacrifice which will reduce pension saving. Just crazy and economically illiterate as it reduces economic investment.
Reposted by Steve Rayson
Peter Kellner has done the crunching of those YouGov numbers on tactical voting: Reform lose about 100 seats, half to Tories, half to Lab kellnerp.substack.com/p/one-hundre...
One hundred ways to thwart Reform
How tactical voting could stop Nigel Farage becoming prime minister
kellnerp.substack.com
November 19, 2025 at 8:18 AM
Peter Kellner has done the crunching of those YouGov numbers on tactical voting: Reform lose about 100 seats, half to Tories, half to Lab kellnerp.substack.com/p/one-hundre...
Reposted by Steve Rayson
📊 NEW | As Labour announces fresh crackdown on refugees, their approval falls to an all-time low.
✅ Satisfied – 11% (-1)
❌ Dissatisfied – 82% (-)
Via @IpsosUK, 30 Oct - 5 Nov (+/- vs 11-17 Sep)
✅ Satisfied – 11% (-1)
❌ Dissatisfied – 82% (-)
Via @IpsosUK, 30 Oct - 5 Nov (+/- vs 11-17 Sep)
November 17, 2025 at 2:16 PM
📊 NEW | As Labour announces fresh crackdown on refugees, their approval falls to an all-time low.
✅ Satisfied – 11% (-1)
❌ Dissatisfied – 82% (-)
Via @IpsosUK, 30 Oct - 5 Nov (+/- vs 11-17 Sep)
✅ Satisfied – 11% (-1)
❌ Dissatisfied – 82% (-)
Via @IpsosUK, 30 Oct - 5 Nov (+/- vs 11-17 Sep)
Reposted by Steve Rayson
I've been out canvassing quite a lot in London lately. Labour's vote has absolutely evaporated.... it is quite extraordinary to go to places where Labour were on 50-60% of the vote at the last locals and find nobody, or virtually nobody, supporting them.
The phrase 'I voted Labour last time, but...
The phrase 'I voted Labour last time, but...
November 18, 2025 at 11:51 AM
I've been out canvassing quite a lot in London lately. Labour's vote has absolutely evaporated.... it is quite extraordinary to go to places where Labour were on 50-60% of the vote at the last locals and find nobody, or virtually nobody, supporting them.
The phrase 'I voted Labour last time, but...
The phrase 'I voted Labour last time, but...
Reposted by Steve Rayson
I simply do not understand how the govt can simultaneously believe (1) they don’t have enough political capital to breach the manifesto on tax and (2) they have enough to political capital to pick an unwinnable fight with their own MPs on immigration.
November 17, 2025 at 11:01 AM
I simply do not understand how the govt can simultaneously believe (1) they don’t have enough political capital to breach the manifesto on tax and (2) they have enough to political capital to pick an unwinnable fight with their own MPs on immigration.
Reposted by Steve Rayson
Prime example of why the contract between the public and the police is breaking down, regardless of long term crime trends. Thames Valley Police don’t even think it’s their job to investigate this. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Kidlington fly-tipping: Criminals dump mountain of waste in field
The enormous pile of rubbish is called an
www.bbc.co.uk
November 14, 2025 at 6:43 PM
Prime example of why the contract between the public and the police is breaking down, regardless of long term crime trends. Thames Valley Police don’t even think it’s their job to investigate this. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
People seem to forget that lower inflation still means prices are 20% higher than they were three years ago. Increasing income tax by freezing thresholds will make the cost of living worse for the low paid. www.theguardian.com/business/202...
November 16, 2025 at 12:31 PM
People seem to forget that lower inflation still means prices are 20% higher than they were three years ago. Increasing income tax by freezing thresholds will make the cost of living worse for the low paid. www.theguardian.com/business/202...
Reposted by Steve Rayson
With the ending of permanent asylum, taxes on foreign students, two U-turns on income tax, a refusal to listen to business concerns about hiring costs, again I ask ‘who are Labour for?’ What is the vision underlying all these choices other than responding to last week’s polls?
November 15, 2025 at 10:36 AM
With the ending of permanent asylum, taxes on foreign students, two U-turns on income tax, a refusal to listen to business concerns about hiring costs, again I ask ‘who are Labour for?’ What is the vision underlying all these choices other than responding to last week’s polls?
Reposted by Steve Rayson
Yes I think this is the thing. People think that because the public services got worse there must have been tax cuts for the rich, but no! There were huge tax rises on the top decile and business and tax cuts for average earners alongside the shrinking of important parts of the state.
November 15, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Yes I think this is the thing. People think that because the public services got worse there must have been tax cuts for the rich, but no! There were huge tax rises on the top decile and business and tax cuts for average earners alongside the shrinking of important parts of the state.
Reposted by Steve Rayson
Fly-tippers bury field in 'shocking' mountain of waste - www.bbc.co.uk/news/article... "150m (490ft) long and 6m (20ft) high" - even in our dark times, this is one of the most appalling things I have seen recently
Kidlington fly-tipping: Criminals dump mountain of waste in field
The enormous pile of rubbish is called an
www.bbc.co.uk
November 15, 2025 at 9:09 AM
Fly-tippers bury field in 'shocking' mountain of waste - www.bbc.co.uk/news/article... "150m (490ft) long and 6m (20ft) high" - even in our dark times, this is one of the most appalling things I have seen recently
Reposted by Steve Rayson
Brain-dead Labour retreats to its comfort zone: campaigning on.ft.com/4p1Orak | opinion
Brain-dead Labour retreats to its comfort zone: campaigning
Downing Street’s bizarre war on itself is a symptom of a government whose ideas dissolve on contact with reality
on.ft.com
November 13, 2025 at 10:39 PM
Brain-dead Labour retreats to its comfort zone: campaigning on.ft.com/4p1Orak | opinion
Reposted by Steve Rayson
This will kill the heat pump market.
And that means cuts in investment in the whole system: tech, skills, supply chain, business investment.
And the subsidy is not a *benefit*, it's designed to equalise the choice between gas and electric.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
And that means cuts in investment in the whole system: tech, skills, supply chain, business investment.
And the subsidy is not a *benefit*, it's designed to equalise the choice between gas and electric.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Hundreds of thousands to lose heat pump subsidies in Reeves’s budget plan
Exclusive: chancellor plans to fund energy efficiency levies via warm homes plan as part of drive to lower energy bills
www.theguardian.com
November 13, 2025 at 4:39 PM
This will kill the heat pump market.
And that means cuts in investment in the whole system: tech, skills, supply chain, business investment.
And the subsidy is not a *benefit*, it's designed to equalise the choice between gas and electric.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
And that means cuts in investment in the whole system: tech, skills, supply chain, business investment.
And the subsidy is not a *benefit*, it's designed to equalise the choice between gas and electric.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Reposted by Steve Rayson
100% this. FWIW I think a single earner on minimum wage should be able to buy a cheap terraced house in Chatham, as was the case when I was a kid, growing up there, in that sort of family. Build more f***ing houses! More power to @stephenkb.bsky.social
Anyway: both the state and private developers need to build at far greater rates, the default aim should be 'a dual earner couple on average incomes can live in non-crowded conditions and raise a family', and the model family *for policymakers* should be three for obvious reasons.
November 13, 2025 at 8:03 PM
100% this. FWIW I think a single earner on minimum wage should be able to buy a cheap terraced house in Chatham, as was the case when I was a kid, growing up there, in that sort of family. Build more f***ing houses! More power to @stephenkb.bsky.social
Reposted by Steve Rayson
This is just trying to be too clever and only likely to fuel cynicism about the government. Anyone earning above £46k are obviously still working. Voters hate this sort of spin. If the government has to raise taxes, it should simply own the decision and not try to fudge it.
November 12, 2025 at 1:00 PM
This is just trying to be too clever and only likely to fuel cynicism about the government. Anyone earning above £46k are obviously still working. Voters hate this sort of spin. If the government has to raise taxes, it should simply own the decision and not try to fudge it.