@peterkellner.bsky.social
Last month marked the centenary of Margaret Thatcher’s birth. In my latest Substack post, I argue that progressives, and not just her fans, have much to learn from her electoral victories
kellnerp.substack.com/p/thatchers-...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/thatchers-...
Thatcher’s victories have lessons for us all
Progressives, and not just her fans, have much to learn from her electoral victories
kellnerp.substack.com
November 5, 2025 at 6:48 AM
Last month marked the centenary of Margaret Thatcher’s birth. In my latest Substack post, I argue that progressives, and not just her fans, have much to learn from her electoral victories
kellnerp.substack.com/p/thatchers-...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/thatchers-...
A decision that passed unnoticed at last year’s Labour conference spells danger for the prime minister. My latest Substack post explains all.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/revealed-t...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/revealed-t...
Revealed: the rule change that puts Starmer at risk
A decision that passed unnoticed at last year’s Labour conference spells danger for the prime minister
kellnerp.substack.com
October 27, 2025 at 6:45 AM
A decision that passed unnoticed at last year’s Labour conference spells danger for the prime minister. My latest Substack post explains all.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/revealed-t...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/revealed-t...
To become prime minister, Nigel Farage must defy history. My new post for Subnstack discusses his prospects
kellnerp.substack.com/p/a-time-to-...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/a-time-to-...
A time to moan and a time to choose
To become prime minister, Farage must defy history.
kellnerp.substack.com
October 21, 2025 at 6:00 AM
To become prime minister, Nigel Farage must defy history. My new post for Subnstack discusses his prospects
kellnerp.substack.com/p/a-time-to-...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/a-time-to-...
My latest Substack examines how flawed polling and flawed journalism are distorting the debate over assisted dying
kellnerp.substack.com/p/peers-beware
kellnerp.substack.com/p/peers-beware
Peers beware
Flawed polling and flawed journalism are distorting the debate over assisted dying
kellnerp.substack.com
October 15, 2025 at 5:56 AM
My latest Substack examines how flawed polling and flawed journalism are distorting the debate over assisted dying
kellnerp.substack.com/p/peers-beware
kellnerp.substack.com/p/peers-beware
My new Substack reports fresh data that reveal the gap between what politicians say and what voters notice.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/voters-are...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/voters-are...
Voters are not listening
New research uncovers the gap between what politicians say and what voters notice
kellnerp.substack.com
October 7, 2025 at 7:45 AM
My new Substack reports fresh data that reveal the gap between what politicians say and what voters notice.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/voters-are...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/voters-are...
Populists rely on voters overstating the scale of today's problems. Polls show that this is far too common in Britain - and around the world
kellnerp.substack.com/p/ignorance-...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/ignorance-...
“Ignorance is Strength”. Was Orwell’s Big Brother right?
Yes – for populists. Parties like Reform rely on voters overstating the scale of today’s problems
kellnerp.substack.com
September 23, 2025 at 6:11 AM
Populists rely on voters overstating the scale of today's problems. Polls show that this is far too common in Britain - and around the world
kellnerp.substack.com/p/ignorance-...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/ignorance-...
Keir Starmer are in worse troubl;e than they realise. My new "respect index" compares what is happening now with what happened after past change elctions. All my Substack posts are free. Read this one here. kellnerp.substack.com/p/historys-w...
History’s warning for Starmer and Badenoch
The "respect index" shows that their problems are even worse than they think
kellnerp.substack.com
September 16, 2025 at 6:15 AM
Keir Starmer are in worse troubl;e than they realise. My new "respect index" compares what is happening now with what happened after past change elctions. All my Substack posts are free. Read this one here. kellnerp.substack.com/p/historys-w...
We know the Tories are in terrible trouble. My latest post looks at its chances of survival, drawing on the lessons from history, and names two people who can help it see off Reform
kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-the-to...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-the-to...
How the Tories can avoid the abyss…
… and the two people who can help them see off Reform
kellnerp.substack.com
September 1, 2025 at 6:08 AM
We know the Tories are in terrible trouble. My latest post looks at its chances of survival, drawing on the lessons from history, and names two people who can help it see off Reform
kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-the-to...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-the-to...
Labour and the Tories are in even greater peril than they think. New research finds fundamental changes in the ways voters decide which party to support
kellnerp.substack.com/p/labour-and...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/labour-and...
Labour and the Tories are in even greater peril than they think
New research finds fundamental changes in the ways voters decide which party to support
kellnerp.substack.com
July 28, 2025 at 7:23 AM
Labour and the Tories are in even greater peril than they think. New research finds fundamental changes in the ways voters decide which party to support
kellnerp.substack.com/p/labour-and...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/labour-and...
Corbyn and Sultana are looking for a name for their new party. Votey McVoteface?
July 24, 2025 at 4:51 PM
Corbyn and Sultana are looking for a name for their new party. Votey McVoteface?
Until now, Britain’s voters have normally chosen not just their MPs but, in practice, their prime minister. Those days may be coming to an end. This is the second post about tackling the problems with our voting system
kellnerp.substack.com/p/what-kind-...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/what-kind-...
What kind of democracy do we want?
Until now, Britain’s voters have normally chosen not just their MPs but, in practice, their prime minister. Those days may be coming to an end
kellnerp.substack.com
July 8, 2025 at 6:10 AM
Until now, Britain’s voters have normally chosen not just their MPs but, in practice, their prime minister. Those days may be coming to an end. This is the second post about tackling the problems with our voting system
kellnerp.substack.com/p/what-kind-...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/what-kind-...
Revealed: the brutal arithmetic that will shape the next general election. Nigel Farage could become prime minister even if Reform falls short of 30% support
kellnerp.substack.com/p/reforms-wi...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/reforms-wi...
Reform's winning post is closer than I thought
Revealed: the brutal arithmetic that will shape the next general election
kellnerp.substack.com
June 30, 2025 at 5:49 AM
Revealed: the brutal arithmetic that will shape the next general election. Nigel Farage could become prime minister even if Reform falls short of 30% support
kellnerp.substack.com/p/reforms-wi...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/reforms-wi...
Last year our voting system punished Nigel Farage. Last month it rewarded him. My latest Substack post argues that First Past The Post has served us well but now needs to go.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/to-stop-re...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/to-stop-re...
To stop Reform, change the voting system
Without change, Farage could become prime minister even though most voters can't stand him
kellnerp.substack.com
June 23, 2025 at 6:55 AM
Last year our voting system punished Nigel Farage. Last month it rewarded him. My latest Substack post argues that First Past The Post has served us well but now needs to go.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/to-stop-re...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/to-stop-re...
Thr war against big tobacco is not over. One of Britain’s most successful campaigns still has work to do.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/fighting-b...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/fighting-b...
Fighting big tobacco: now for the endgame
One of Britain’s most successful campaigns still has work to do
kellnerp.substack.com
June 9, 2025 at 6:17 AM
Thr war against big tobacco is not over. One of Britain’s most successful campaigns still has work to do.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/fighting-b...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/fighting-b...
On June 5, 1967, Israel launched the Six Day war. One of the architects of its victory was a distant relative. I can now reveal his private warning before the war of the disaster facing his country if it ended up occupying Gaza and the West Bank.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/defeat-the...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/defeat-the...
'Defeat the Palestinians, then set them free'
Revealed: the private warning of the Israeli general who feared that occupying the West Bank and Gaza would lead to disaster
kellnerp.substack.com
June 5, 2025 at 6:05 AM
On June 5, 1967, Israel launched the Six Day war. One of the architects of its victory was a distant relative. I can now reveal his private warning before the war of the disaster facing his country if it ended up occupying Gaza and the West Bank.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/defeat-the...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/defeat-the...
From winter fuel allowance and child benefit to immigration and Europe, Labour’s ministers have been led astray by the data they rely on. My Substack post argues that it is time to change their ways
kellnerp.substack.com/p/a-pollster...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/a-pollster...
A pollster warns: beware of the polls
Labour’s ministers have been led astray by the data they rely on. Time to change their ways
kellnerp.substack.com
May 26, 2025 at 6:00 AM
From winter fuel allowance and child benefit to immigration and Europe, Labour’s ministers have been led astray by the data they rely on. My Substack post argues that it is time to change their ways
kellnerp.substack.com/p/a-pollster...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/a-pollster...
New research by YouGov shows that, even with its support down to 23 per cent, Labour may not have reached rock bottom. Here is my analysis for Substack
kellnerp.substack.com/p/starmers-b...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/starmers-b...
Starmer's biggest mistake is taking progressive voters for granted.
New research by YouGov shows that, even with its support down to 23 per cent, Labour may not have reached rock bottom
kellnerp.substack.com
May 19, 2025 at 6:10 AM
New research by YouGov shows that, even with its support down to 23 per cent, Labour may not have reached rock bottom. Here is my analysis for Substack
kellnerp.substack.com/p/starmers-b...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/starmers-b...
Will the UK-EU summit on May 19 be a turning point in their relationship, or just a minor staging post where nothing big is achieved? My analysis for @carnegieendowment.org looks at what each side wants and where deals are possible.
carnegieendowment.org/posts/2025/0...
carnegieendowment.org/posts/2025/0...
The Moment of Truth for a UK-EU Reset
Ahead of the UK-EU summit on May 19, London is aiming to reset its relations with Brussels by focusing on defense, migration, and trade. However, meaningful progress might be limited without a major r...
carnegieendowment.org
May 14, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Will the UK-EU summit on May 19 be a turning point in their relationship, or just a minor staging post where nothing big is achieved? My analysis for @carnegieendowment.org looks at what each side wants and where deals are possible.
carnegieendowment.org/posts/2025/0...
carnegieendowment.org/posts/2025/0...
Some rare good news for Keir Starmer: there won't be a Tory-Reform pact, so the right-wing vote wil be divided agan at the next general election. My blog for @prospectmagazine.co.uk crunches the numbers and sets out the reasons
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/699...
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/699...
Who would benefit from a Reform-Tory pact?
Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch should look to history before agreeing to stand down candidates in each other’s target seats
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk
May 13, 2025 at 9:01 AM
Some rare good news for Keir Starmer: there won't be a Tory-Reform pact, so the right-wing vote wil be divided agan at the next general election. My blog for @prospectmagazine.co.uk crunches the numbers and sets out the reasons
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/699...
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/699...
Labour risks learning the wrong lessons from last week's elections. My blog for @prospectmagazine.co.uk gives three reasons to ignore the pro-Brexit lobby in their ranks
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/698...
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/698...
Labour is learning the wrong lessons
The local election results show Reform is not Labour’s greatest threat—it’s other progressive parties
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk
May 6, 2025 at 5:56 PM
Labour risks learning the wrong lessons from last week's elections. My blog for @prospectmagazine.co.uk gives three reasons to ignore the pro-Brexit lobby in their ranks
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/698...
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/698...
Next week's local elections will be more important and more confusing than ever. My blog for Prospect discusses how to separate the signal from the noise www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/the...
The local elections are a four-horse race
Labour, the Conservatives, Reform or the Liberal Democrats could win the most votes on 1st May. But which party has the most to gain?
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk
April 24, 2025 at 6:02 AM
Next week's local elections will be more important and more confusing than ever. My blog for Prospect discusses how to separate the signal from the noise www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/the...
The conditions that produced the old Labour-Tory duopoly have vanished. Despite last year's landslide, single-party governments are likely to be the exception from now on www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/the...
The UK’s Labour-Tory duopoly is over
The latest polls show a tight three-way race in Britain between Labour, Reform and the Conservatives, with the Lib Dems not far behind
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk
April 16, 2025 at 12:38 PM
The conditions that produced the old Labour-Tory duopoly have vanished. Despite last year's landslide, single-party governments are likely to be the exception from now on www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/the...
Churchill showed Starmer they. My latest Substack post argues that President Trump is causing big problems, and a big plan is needed to stop him.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/churchill-...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/churchill-...
Churchill showed Starmer the way
Trump is causing big problems. A big plan is needed to stop him
kellnerp.substack.com
April 8, 2025 at 6:11 AM
Churchill showed Starmer they. My latest Substack post argues that President Trump is causing big problems, and a big plan is needed to stop him.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/churchill-...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/churchill-...
As Rachel Reeves prepares for this week’s Spring Statement, my new Substack argues that she should heed the lessons from Harold Wilson and Clement Attlee, who were both punished for delaying the inevitable.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-labour...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-labour...
How Labour can avoid defeat in 2029
Attlee and Wilson were punished for delaying the inevitable. Starmer can avoid their fate – if he acts fast
kellnerp.substack.com
March 24, 2025 at 6:48 AM
As Rachel Reeves prepares for this week’s Spring Statement, my new Substack argues that she should heed the lessons from Harold Wilson and Clement Attlee, who were both punished for delaying the inevitable.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-labour...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-labour...
As Keir Starmer prepares to head to Washington, here is what he needs to know aboui Trump's popularity - what the preisdent claims, and the very different truth. kellnerp.substack.com/p/the-truth-...
The truth about Trump's popularity
A memo to Keir Starmer as he heads to Washington
kellnerp.substack.com
February 25, 2025 at 7:22 AM
As Keir Starmer prepares to head to Washington, here is what he needs to know aboui Trump's popularity - what the preisdent claims, and the very different truth. kellnerp.substack.com/p/the-truth-...