Merry Christmas, academics!
December 25, 2025 at 12:54 AM
Merry Christmas, academics!
Reposted by Rob Johns
The 2025 Headline of the Year Nominees
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December 22, 2025 at 11:48 PM
The 2025 Headline of the Year Nominees
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Reposted by Rob Johns
🇪🇺🇩🇪 Published Today in @bjpols.bsky.social 🇮🇹🇫🇷
How a voting advice application affected voting behavior in three large-scale field experiments:
shorturl.at/2ekBj
TLDR of our study (with @simonhix.bsky.social & @rlachat.bsky.social) below 👇 1/14
How a voting advice application affected voting behavior in three large-scale field experiments:
shorturl.at/2ekBj
TLDR of our study (with @simonhix.bsky.social & @rlachat.bsky.social) below 👇 1/14
December 18, 2025 at 11:41 AM
🇪🇺🇩🇪 Published Today in @bjpols.bsky.social 🇮🇹🇫🇷
How a voting advice application affected voting behavior in three large-scale field experiments:
shorturl.at/2ekBj
TLDR of our study (with @simonhix.bsky.social & @rlachat.bsky.social) below 👇 1/14
How a voting advice application affected voting behavior in three large-scale field experiments:
shorturl.at/2ekBj
TLDR of our study (with @simonhix.bsky.social & @rlachat.bsky.social) below 👇 1/14
Reposted by Rob Johns
I can’t help thinking that when, in future, people ask what UK political leaders said as it became undeniable that US saw European liberal democracy as its no1 strategic foe, Starmer and others will regret that the answer is “not much, shuffled awkwardly, looked at their feet”.
December 10, 2025 at 9:38 AM
I can’t help thinking that when, in future, people ask what UK political leaders said as it became undeniable that US saw European liberal democracy as its no1 strategic foe, Starmer and others will regret that the answer is “not much, shuffled awkwardly, looked at their feet”.
Reposted by Rob Johns
It can't be emphasised enough: we are on course for either the most disproportional Holyrood result ever, or the SNP will win far fewer seats than projections predict they will.
December 10, 2025 at 2:51 PM
It can't be emphasised enough: we are on course for either the most disproportional Holyrood result ever, or the SNP will win far fewer seats than projections predict they will.
How on earth did she fit in her marking?
December 10, 2025 at 2:28 PM
How on earth did she fit in her marking?
Reposted by Rob Johns
New Scottish Parliament poll, Ipsos 27 Nov - 3 Dec (vs 12-18 Jun):
List:
SNP ~ 28% (+2)
Lab ~ 18% (-4)
RUK ~ 17% (+1)
Grn ~ 17% (+2)
Con ~ 12% (+2)
LD ~ 7% (-1)
Constituency:
SNP ~ 35% (+1)
RUK ~ 18% (+4)
Lab ~ 16% (-7)
Con ~ 11% (+1)
Grn ~ 9% (nc)
LD ~ 9% (nc)
List:
SNP ~ 28% (+2)
Lab ~ 18% (-4)
RUK ~ 17% (+1)
Grn ~ 17% (+2)
Con ~ 12% (+2)
LD ~ 7% (-1)
Constituency:
SNP ~ 35% (+1)
RUK ~ 18% (+4)
Lab ~ 16% (-7)
Con ~ 11% (+1)
Grn ~ 9% (nc)
LD ~ 9% (nc)
December 10, 2025 at 12:13 PM
New Scottish Parliament poll, Ipsos 27 Nov - 3 Dec (vs 12-18 Jun):
List:
SNP ~ 28% (+2)
Lab ~ 18% (-4)
RUK ~ 17% (+1)
Grn ~ 17% (+2)
Con ~ 12% (+2)
LD ~ 7% (-1)
Constituency:
SNP ~ 35% (+1)
RUK ~ 18% (+4)
Lab ~ 16% (-7)
Con ~ 11% (+1)
Grn ~ 9% (nc)
LD ~ 9% (nc)
List:
SNP ~ 28% (+2)
Lab ~ 18% (-4)
RUK ~ 17% (+1)
Grn ~ 17% (+2)
Con ~ 12% (+2)
LD ~ 7% (-1)
Constituency:
SNP ~ 35% (+1)
RUK ~ 18% (+4)
Lab ~ 16% (-7)
Con ~ 11% (+1)
Grn ~ 9% (nc)
LD ~ 9% (nc)
Reposted by Rob Johns
🚨 New in Nature+Science!🚨
AI chatbots can shift voter attitudes on candidates & policies, often by 10+pp
🔹Exps in US Canada Poland & UK
🔹More “facts”→more persuasion (not psych tricks)
🔹Increasing persuasiveness reduces "fact" accuracy
🔹Right-leaning bots=more inaccurate
AI chatbots can shift voter attitudes on candidates & policies, often by 10+pp
🔹Exps in US Canada Poland & UK
🔹More “facts”→more persuasion (not psych tricks)
🔹Increasing persuasiveness reduces "fact" accuracy
🔹Right-leaning bots=more inaccurate
December 4, 2025 at 8:43 PM
🚨 New in Nature+Science!🚨
AI chatbots can shift voter attitudes on candidates & policies, often by 10+pp
🔹Exps in US Canada Poland & UK
🔹More “facts”→more persuasion (not psych tricks)
🔹Increasing persuasiveness reduces "fact" accuracy
🔹Right-leaning bots=more inaccurate
AI chatbots can shift voter attitudes on candidates & policies, often by 10+pp
🔹Exps in US Canada Poland & UK
🔹More “facts”→more persuasion (not psych tricks)
🔹Increasing persuasiveness reduces "fact" accuracy
🔹Right-leaning bots=more inaccurate
Reposted by Rob Johns
You lose your wallet.
Where are you most likely to get it back?
It depends on how much $$$ is in the wallet.
But it's better to lose your wallet in:
Switzerland 🇨🇭
Norway 🇳🇴
Netherlands 🇳🇱
Denmark 🇩🇰
You're far less likely to get your wallet back in:
China 🇨🇳
Morrocco 🇲🇦
Peru 🇵🇪
Kazakhstan 🇰🇿
Where are you most likely to get it back?
It depends on how much $$$ is in the wallet.
But it's better to lose your wallet in:
Switzerland 🇨🇭
Norway 🇳🇴
Netherlands 🇳🇱
Denmark 🇩🇰
You're far less likely to get your wallet back in:
China 🇨🇳
Morrocco 🇲🇦
Peru 🇵🇪
Kazakhstan 🇰🇿
December 1, 2025 at 9:30 PM
You lose your wallet.
Where are you most likely to get it back?
It depends on how much $$$ is in the wallet.
But it's better to lose your wallet in:
Switzerland 🇨🇭
Norway 🇳🇴
Netherlands 🇳🇱
Denmark 🇩🇰
You're far less likely to get your wallet back in:
China 🇨🇳
Morrocco 🇲🇦
Peru 🇵🇪
Kazakhstan 🇰🇿
Where are you most likely to get it back?
It depends on how much $$$ is in the wallet.
But it's better to lose your wallet in:
Switzerland 🇨🇭
Norway 🇳🇴
Netherlands 🇳🇱
Denmark 🇩🇰
You're far less likely to get your wallet back in:
China 🇨🇳
Morrocco 🇲🇦
Peru 🇵🇪
Kazakhstan 🇰🇿
As one who would struggle to get beyond the third press-up even on a particularly athletic day, I am hugely impressed by this and will be donating accordingly.
Christmas is approaching, the season of giving, and this December I have decided to make a gift of my dignity by bravely/foolishly joining in a festive season challenge. Every day this month I will (attempt to) do 100 press-ups, to raise money for this fine cause: www.gofundme.com/f/help-us-he...
Donate to Help us help Moses build new sanitary toilets in Kibera, organized by Miriam Ronzoni
Moses is an activist who has dedicated much of his life to impr… Miriam Ronzoni needs your support for Help us help Moses build new sanitary toilets in Kibera
www.gofundme.com
December 1, 2025 at 10:20 AM
As one who would struggle to get beyond the third press-up even on a particularly athletic day, I am hugely impressed by this and will be donating accordingly.
Reposted by Rob Johns
🚨 New working paper 🚨
Can LLMs with reasoning + web search reliably fact-check political claims?
We evaluated 15 models from OpenAI, Google, Meta, and DeepSeek on 6,000+ PolitiFact claims (2007–2024).
Short answer: Not reliably—unless you give them curated evidence.
arxiv.org/abs/2511.18749
Can LLMs with reasoning + web search reliably fact-check political claims?
We evaluated 15 models from OpenAI, Google, Meta, and DeepSeek on 6,000+ PolitiFact claims (2007–2024).
Short answer: Not reliably—unless you give them curated evidence.
arxiv.org/abs/2511.18749
November 29, 2025 at 10:06 PM
🚨 New working paper 🚨
Can LLMs with reasoning + web search reliably fact-check political claims?
We evaluated 15 models from OpenAI, Google, Meta, and DeepSeek on 6,000+ PolitiFact claims (2007–2024).
Short answer: Not reliably—unless you give them curated evidence.
arxiv.org/abs/2511.18749
Can LLMs with reasoning + web search reliably fact-check political claims?
We evaluated 15 models from OpenAI, Google, Meta, and DeepSeek on 6,000+ PolitiFact claims (2007–2024).
Short answer: Not reliably—unless you give them curated evidence.
arxiv.org/abs/2511.18749
Reposted by Rob Johns
No real policy motive from No 10 for bringing numbers down further, but is there a political one?
Our @ukandeu.bsky.social-funded survey research on net migration says no - small benefit of getting numbers from peak to ~350k but none from further cuts
bsky.app/profile/robj...
Our @ukandeu.bsky.social-funded survey research on net migration says no - small benefit of getting numbers from peak to ~350k but none from further cuts
bsky.app/profile/robj...
PM describes net migration of 205k as "a step in the right direction". His govt has no public position on a sustainable level of immigration is, nor any known process to decide what, why & how. Starmer is now implying he wants it significantly lower
www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...
www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...
Net migration drop ‘step in the right direction’ – Starmer
Net migration peaked at a record 944,000 in the year to March 2023 but has fallen sharply since then.
www.standard.co.uk
November 27, 2025 at 2:50 PM
No real policy motive from No 10 for bringing numbers down further, but is there a political one?
Our @ukandeu.bsky.social-funded survey research on net migration says no - small benefit of getting numbers from peak to ~350k but none from further cuts
bsky.app/profile/robj...
Our @ukandeu.bsky.social-funded survey research on net migration says no - small benefit of getting numbers from peak to ~350k but none from further cuts
bsky.app/profile/robj...
Reposted by Rob Johns
Turnout decline accounted for (45% compared to 54% from 5 years ago) and petty party gossip aside, there are regions in Southern Italy where a non-fragmented left can win. In this case, with a "lefty" M5S candidate (Fico) moving towards the PD and vice versa.
Italy, Final election result:
Campania regional parliament election
PD (S&D): 18.4% (+1.5)
FdI (ECR): 11.9% (+5.9)
FI (EPP): 10.7% (+5.6)
M5S (LEFT): 9.1% (-0.8)
ATA (~S&D): 8.3% (+8.3)
AC-PSI (S&D): 5.9% (+3.3)
CR/IV (RE): 5.8% (-1.6)
...
+/- vs. Last election result
➤ europeelects.eu/italy
Campania regional parliament election
PD (S&D): 18.4% (+1.5)
FdI (ECR): 11.9% (+5.9)
FI (EPP): 10.7% (+5.6)
M5S (LEFT): 9.1% (-0.8)
ATA (~S&D): 8.3% (+8.3)
AC-PSI (S&D): 5.9% (+3.3)
CR/IV (RE): 5.8% (-1.6)
...
+/- vs. Last election result
➤ europeelects.eu/italy
November 25, 2025 at 10:03 AM
Turnout decline accounted for (45% compared to 54% from 5 years ago) and petty party gossip aside, there are regions in Southern Italy where a non-fragmented left can win. In this case, with a "lefty" M5S candidate (Fico) moving towards the PD and vice versa.
Reposted by Rob Johns
NEWS -
The Politics of Imperial Nostalgia - https://cup.org/4p1QbRA
"right-wing opposition to criticism of the imperial past is stronger than left-wing support"
- Christopher Claassen & @danjdevine.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
The Politics of Imperial Nostalgia - https://cup.org/4p1QbRA
"right-wing opposition to criticism of the imperial past is stronger than left-wing support"
- Christopher Claassen & @danjdevine.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
November 24, 2025 at 2:50 PM
NEWS -
The Politics of Imperial Nostalgia - https://cup.org/4p1QbRA
"right-wing opposition to criticism of the imperial past is stronger than left-wing support"
- Christopher Claassen & @danjdevine.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
The Politics of Imperial Nostalgia - https://cup.org/4p1QbRA
"right-wing opposition to criticism of the imperial past is stronger than left-wing support"
- Christopher Claassen & @danjdevine.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
Reposted by Rob Johns
Postdoc call‼️
I am opening a call for a postdoctoral position within my ERC project CONSENT.
Come to Madrid to be part of my research team and more broadly of the @ipp-csic.bsky.social community.
Application deadline: December 10th.
Call details: tinyurl.com/yfu83p9m
I am opening a call for a postdoctoral position within my ERC project CONSENT.
Come to Madrid to be part of my research team and more broadly of the @ipp-csic.bsky.social community.
Application deadline: December 10th.
Call details: tinyurl.com/yfu83p9m
Dropbox
tinyurl.com
November 24, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Postdoc call‼️
I am opening a call for a postdoctoral position within my ERC project CONSENT.
Come to Madrid to be part of my research team and more broadly of the @ipp-csic.bsky.social community.
Application deadline: December 10th.
Call details: tinyurl.com/yfu83p9m
I am opening a call for a postdoctoral position within my ERC project CONSENT.
Come to Madrid to be part of my research team and more broadly of the @ipp-csic.bsky.social community.
Application deadline: December 10th.
Call details: tinyurl.com/yfu83p9m
“Can you pinpoint the moment that you realised that civilisation was utterly irretrievable?”
November 24, 2025 at 10:09 AM
“Can you pinpoint the moment that you realised that civilisation was utterly irretrievable?”
Reposted by Rob Johns
Typically entertaining piece with a review of the research set out here: bsky.app/profile/turn...
Latest piece for the @thehousemag.bsky.social, on the island of strangers speech and similar. Also ft Bob Hawke.
www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...
www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...
The Professor Will See You Now: Island of strangers
Lessons in political science. This week: island of strangers
www.politicshome.com
November 20, 2025 at 12:45 PM
Typically entertaining piece with a review of the research set out here: bsky.app/profile/turn...
Reposted by Rob Johns
I still don't see how it can happen this time with 119 sitting Conservative MPs and Reform way ahead of the Tories in the polls. Farage will correctly expect to win many of those Tory seats. A deal either needs Farage to stand aside in seats he'd win, or the Tories to stand aside in seats they hold
November 20, 2025 at 9:45 AM
I still don't see how it can happen this time with 119 sitting Conservative MPs and Reform way ahead of the Tories in the polls. Farage will correctly expect to win many of those Tory seats. A deal either needs Farage to stand aside in seats he'd win, or the Tories to stand aside in seats they hold
Reposted by Rob Johns
It's depressingly compelling in a way just how closely the political and social reaction to social media mirrors the advent of the printing press.
It’s the exclusive everyone wanted, the story that will win next year’s Pulitzer…
I can reveal London’s giant AI generated Christmas artwork, the subject of much online mockery, is being torn down - and I honestly *genuinely* think you’ll never guess why. www.londoncentric.media/p/ai-artwork...
I can reveal London’s giant AI generated Christmas artwork, the subject of much online mockery, is being torn down - and I honestly *genuinely* think you’ll never guess why. www.londoncentric.media/p/ai-artwork...
London's giant AI artwork to be torn down
The bizarre story of why a much-talked-about creation is being torn down. Plus: Docklands Light Railway extension, giant laser stalks the night sky, and more tales of Android phone theft rejection.
www.londoncentric.media
November 20, 2025 at 10:00 AM
It's depressingly compelling in a way just how closely the political and social reaction to social media mirrors the advent of the printing press.
Reposted by Rob Johns
Strongly suspect that this is what will happen here in 28/9. Tories will replace Badenoch with a leader prepared to try it and Farage (as per 2019 but this time as the senior partner) will continue to deny he'll do a stand-down deal - right up until the point he does one.
French conservatives are inching towards a pact with Le Pen that could enable a far-right takeover of the country | Paul Taylor
In trying to woo Le Pen’s voters, Les Républicains risk destroying France’s Gaullist legacy and putting Paris on a collision course with the EU, says Paul Taylor of the European Policy Centre
www.theguardian.com
November 20, 2025 at 9:14 AM
Strongly suspect that this is what will happen here in 28/9. Tories will replace Badenoch with a leader prepared to try it and Farage (as per 2019 but this time as the senior partner) will continue to deny he'll do a stand-down deal - right up until the point he does one.
Reposted by Rob Johns
Yesterday, we put out a report on the most important issues to voters.
We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk).
But that doesn't tell the full story.
Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):
We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk).
But that doesn't tell the full story.
Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):
November 17, 2025 at 11:41 AM
Yesterday, we put out a report on the most important issues to voters.
We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk).
But that doesn't tell the full story.
Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):
We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk).
But that doesn't tell the full story.
Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):
I (partly) blame the lecturers.
Fascinating how often political commentary in the UK still refers to the median voter. In a multi-dimensional space with salience endogenous to positions, it‘s unclear to me who that should be. In a multi-party system, winning the median voter is of course not necessarily a vote-maximizing strategy.
November 17, 2025 at 11:05 AM
I (partly) blame the lecturers.
Reposted by Rob Johns
Labour now down to 18% in our latest @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social voting intention, the joint lowest we've ever had them - prev. May 2009 (expenses scandal, economic crisis). What's happening in 3 charts ...
November 17, 2025 at 10:49 AM
Labour now down to 18% in our latest @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social voting intention, the joint lowest we've ever had them - prev. May 2009 (expenses scandal, economic crisis). What's happening in 3 charts ...
Reposted by Rob Johns
Here’s one for the museum of 2025, a bitesize US political daily briefing
The attorney general and the FBI director, a manosphere podcaster bro, pulled into the situation room a member of Congress best known for getting kicked out of a Beetlejuice musical for drunkenly giving her date a handy, in order to pressure her about the president's child sex trafficking scandal.
November 13, 2025 at 8:29 AM
Here’s one for the museum of 2025, a bitesize US political daily briefing