Michael Kowalski
@roaringdeep.com
Freelance software developer. Superforecaster with Good Judgment Inc.
1/4
The UST 10 year yield had it highest post-FOMC jump since 2013 yesterday.
The UST 10 year yield had it highest post-FOMC jump since 2013 yesterday.
Fed Drops a Lump of Coal in Trump Market’s Christmas
Powell rebuffs notion that tariffs weighed on calculations for fewer cuts, but a showdown may be looming.
www.bloomberg.com
December 19, 2024 at 9:19 AM
1/4
The UST 10 year yield had it highest post-FOMC jump since 2013 yesterday.
The UST 10 year yield had it highest post-FOMC jump since 2013 yesterday.
Reposted by Michael Kowalski
This absolutely rocks, and should be taught in genetics classes in schools. I have little hope it will be heeded by the geniuses of Silicon Valley, however.
In a @currentbiology.bsky.social paper earlier this year, led by @laurawesseldijk.bsky.social, we analysed Beethoven’s genome with a polygenic index related to musicality, as a way to communicate limits of genetic predictions at the individual level & the complexity of links between DNA & behaviour:
Notes from Beethoven’s genome
Wesseldijk et al. compare the genomic information collected from Ludwig van Beethoven with population-based datasets used to quantify musical achievement.
www.cell.com
December 13, 2024 at 4:47 PM
This absolutely rocks, and should be taught in genetics classes in schools. I have little hope it will be heeded by the geniuses of Silicon Valley, however.
Reposted by Michael Kowalski
Lot of people dunking on this but if you were designing financial regulation from scratch you probably wouldn’t have three separate federal bodies overseeing the banking industry.
NEW
Trump transition team has started to explore pathways to dramatically shrink, consolidate or even eliminate top bank watchdogs.
Potential appointees have been asked if Trump can eliminate the FDIC and have deposit insurance absorbed into Treasury Dept.
That would require an act of Congress.
Trump transition team has started to explore pathways to dramatically shrink, consolidate or even eliminate top bank watchdogs.
Potential appointees have been asked if Trump can eliminate the FDIC and have deposit insurance absorbed into Treasury Dept.
That would require an act of Congress.
Exclusive | Trump Advisers Seek to Shrink or Eliminate Bank Regulators
Advisers asked potential nominees whether Trump could abolish the FDIC.
bit.ly
December 13, 2024 at 1:21 AM
Lot of people dunking on this but if you were designing financial regulation from scratch you probably wouldn’t have three separate federal bodies overseeing the banking industry.
Reposted by Michael Kowalski
Since H5N1 flu is finally getting news coverage, here’s a looong 🧵 on what I learned while working on it for a few months at Ginkgo Biosecurity (I don’t work there anymore and this thread is on no one’s behalf)
Everything here is info you can get elsewhere but just to lay it all out insomnia style
Everything here is info you can get elsewhere but just to lay it all out insomnia style
November 29, 2024 at 3:03 PM
Since H5N1 flu is finally getting news coverage, here’s a looong 🧵 on what I learned while working on it for a few months at Ginkgo Biosecurity (I don’t work there anymore and this thread is on no one’s behalf)
Everything here is info you can get elsewhere but just to lay it all out insomnia style
Everything here is info you can get elsewhere but just to lay it all out insomnia style
Reposted by Michael Kowalski
This is an extraordinary muddle of disconsonant ideas. Short thread on why, and also why it casts MAGA as rather hollow. 1/6
December 1, 2024 at 8:19 AM
This is an extraordinary muddle of disconsonant ideas. Short thread on why, and also why it casts MAGA as rather hollow. 1/6
Reposted by Michael Kowalski
what did y'all imagine machine learning is, before learning it and being indoctrinated that it all about optimizing parameterized functions involving many matrices?
December 1, 2024 at 7:09 AM
what did y'all imagine machine learning is, before learning it and being indoctrinated that it all about optimizing parameterized functions involving many matrices?
Reposted by Michael Kowalski
1/11
If you want to understand the effects of trade intervention, ask economic historians, but never ask economists. That's because their answer will almost certainly reflect little more than their ideological position, and they are likely to be wholly unaware of what happens outside the US.
If you want to understand the effects of trade intervention, ask economic historians, but never ask economists. That's because their answer will almost certainly reflect little more than their ideological position, and they are likely to be wholly unaware of what happens outside the US.
November 29, 2024 at 4:54 AM
1/11
If you want to understand the effects of trade intervention, ask economic historians, but never ask economists. That's because their answer will almost certainly reflect little more than their ideological position, and they are likely to be wholly unaware of what happens outside the US.
If you want to understand the effects of trade intervention, ask economic historians, but never ask economists. That's because their answer will almost certainly reflect little more than their ideological position, and they are likely to be wholly unaware of what happens outside the US.
Reposted by Michael Kowalski
Hot off the presses! 🔥📰
The new Trending News feed takes the 📰 News feed and sorts it by popularity. This is a work-in-progress I've been developing with @devingaffney.com, more info soon!
bsky.app/profile/did:...
The new Trending News feed takes the 📰 News feed and sorts it by popularity. This is a work-in-progress I've been developing with @devingaffney.com, more info soon!
bsky.app/profile/did:...
November 28, 2024 at 12:29 AM
Hot off the presses! 🔥📰
The new Trending News feed takes the 📰 News feed and sorts it by popularity. This is a work-in-progress I've been developing with @devingaffney.com, more info soon!
bsky.app/profile/did:...
The new Trending News feed takes the 📰 News feed and sorts it by popularity. This is a work-in-progress I've been developing with @devingaffney.com, more info soon!
bsky.app/profile/did:...
Reposted by Michael Kowalski
The largest great white shark ever caught in Queensland’s shark control program – measuring 5.62 metres, almost the length of a 20-foot shipping container – died while pregnant with four pups, it has been revealed.
Largest great white shark ever caught in Queensland control program was pregnant with four pups
Female almost the length of a shipping container was found dead on a drumline in August, primary industries department has revealed
www.theguardian.com
November 27, 2024 at 12:53 PM
The largest great white shark ever caught in Queensland’s shark control program – measuring 5.62 metres, almost the length of a 20-foot shipping container – died while pregnant with four pups, it has been revealed.
Reposted by Michael Kowalski
1. Can you stop companies from training generative AI using your data? No, not currently.
2. Is this dataset meant for training generative AI? 🤷♀️ but more likely for research and statistical analysis.
3. Is it ok to duplicate and distribute people’s data without agency to opt out? I’d argue no.
2. Is this dataset meant for training generative AI? 🤷♀️ but more likely for research and statistical analysis.
3. Is it ok to duplicate and distribute people’s data without agency to opt out? I’d argue no.
First dataset for the new @huggingface.bsky.social @bsky.app community organisation: one-million-bluesky-posts 🦋
📊 1M public posts from Bluesky's firehose API
🔍 Includes text, metadata, and language predictions
🔬 Perfect to experiment with using ML for Bluesky 🤗
huggingface.co/datasets/blu...
📊 1M public posts from Bluesky's firehose API
🔍 Includes text, metadata, and language predictions
🔬 Perfect to experiment with using ML for Bluesky 🤗
huggingface.co/datasets/blu...
bluesky-community/one-million-bluesky-posts · Datasets at Hugging Face
We’re on a journey to advance and democratize artificial intelligence through open source and open science.
huggingface.co
November 27, 2024 at 7:51 AM
1. Can you stop companies from training generative AI using your data? No, not currently.
2. Is this dataset meant for training generative AI? 🤷♀️ but more likely for research and statistical analysis.
3. Is it ok to duplicate and distribute people’s data without agency to opt out? I’d argue no.
2. Is this dataset meant for training generative AI? 🤷♀️ but more likely for research and statistical analysis.
3. Is it ok to duplicate and distribute people’s data without agency to opt out? I’d argue no.
Reposted by Michael Kowalski
I went to a Silicon Valley AI retreat in 2019. Turned out it was run by EA and Longtermists before I knew what those things were.
One activity was to envision future scenarios involving AI.
I told a story about the dangers of regulatory capture.
I was shunned for the rest of the event.
One activity was to envision future scenarios involving AI.
I told a story about the dangers of regulatory capture.
I was shunned for the rest of the event.
November 27, 2024 at 12:55 AM
I went to a Silicon Valley AI retreat in 2019. Turned out it was run by EA and Longtermists before I knew what those things were.
One activity was to envision future scenarios involving AI.
I told a story about the dangers of regulatory capture.
I was shunned for the rest of the event.
One activity was to envision future scenarios involving AI.
I told a story about the dangers of regulatory capture.
I was shunned for the rest of the event.
The US won't collect $1 trillion over 10 years with these tariffs on Mexico. The tariff never being implemented seems a lot more likely than implementing it as written for 10 years. A changed mix of goods, smaller tariff, and reduced over time might make $50-100 billion a good median guess.
** TRUMP THREATENS 25% TARIFFS ON ALL MEXICO IMPORTS
The US imported $476 billion from Mexico last year - more than any other country
A 25 percent tariff on those imports would translate into a roughly $100 billion annual tax — or ~$1 trillion over the next decade
The US imported $476 billion from Mexico last year - more than any other country
A 25 percent tariff on those imports would translate into a roughly $100 billion annual tax — or ~$1 trillion over the next decade
November 26, 2024 at 3:46 AM
The US won't collect $1 trillion over 10 years with these tariffs on Mexico. The tariff never being implemented seems a lot more likely than implementing it as written for 10 years. A changed mix of goods, smaller tariff, and reduced over time might make $50-100 billion a good median guess.
Reposted by Michael Kowalski
** TRUMP THREATENS 25% TARIFFS ON ALL MEXICO IMPORTS
The US imported $476 billion from Mexico last year - more than any other country
A 25 percent tariff on those imports would translate into a roughly $100 billion annual tax — or ~$1 trillion over the next decade
The US imported $476 billion from Mexico last year - more than any other country
A 25 percent tariff on those imports would translate into a roughly $100 billion annual tax — or ~$1 trillion over the next decade
November 26, 2024 at 12:33 AM
** TRUMP THREATENS 25% TARIFFS ON ALL MEXICO IMPORTS
The US imported $476 billion from Mexico last year - more than any other country
A 25 percent tariff on those imports would translate into a roughly $100 billion annual tax — or ~$1 trillion over the next decade
The US imported $476 billion from Mexico last year - more than any other country
A 25 percent tariff on those imports would translate into a roughly $100 billion annual tax — or ~$1 trillion over the next decade
Reposted by Michael Kowalski
I had forgotten how ‘exciting’ policy by tweet is. It kicks off some of the best and worst on the platforms.
November 26, 2024 at 1:27 AM
I had forgotten how ‘exciting’ policy by tweet is. It kicks off some of the best and worst on the platforms.
Reuters a few days ago: "The United States could impose nearly 40% tariffs on imports from China early next year, a Reuters poll of economists showed..."
So 10% is surprisingly low. And some wonder why stock markets aren't selling off or reacting more.
So 10% is surprisingly low. And some wonder why stock markets aren't selling off or reacting more.
Trump to unleash nearly 40% tariffs on China in early 2025, hitting growth: Reuters poll
The United States could impose nearly 40% tariffs on imports from China early next year, a Reuters poll of economists showed, potentially slicing growth in the world's second-biggest economy by up to 1 percentage point.
www.reuters.com
November 26, 2024 at 3:10 AM
Reuters a few days ago: "The United States could impose nearly 40% tariffs on imports from China early next year, a Reuters poll of economists showed..."
So 10% is surprisingly low. And some wonder why stock markets aren't selling off or reacting more.
So 10% is surprisingly low. And some wonder why stock markets aren't selling off or reacting more.
Where does the US import food from?
www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/us-food-i...
www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/us-food-i...
Visualizing Top U.S. Food Imports by Origin Country
This infographic shows the top exporting countries for U.S. food imports, ranging from exotic fruits to meat, oils, spices, and more.
www.visualcapitalist.com
November 26, 2024 at 12:19 AM
Where does the US import food from?
www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/us-food-i...
www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/us-food-i...
Reposted by Michael Kowalski
How Decentralized Is Bluesky Really? dustycloud.org/blog/how-dec...
A technical deep-dive, since people have been asking me for my thoughts. I'll expand a bit on some of the key points here in a thread. 🧵
A technical deep-dive, since people have been asking me for my thoughts. I'll expand a bit on some of the key points here in a thread. 🧵
How decentralized is Bluesky really? -- Dustycloud Brainstorms
dustycloud.org
November 22, 2024 at 4:06 PM
How Decentralized Is Bluesky Really? dustycloud.org/blog/how-dec...
A technical deep-dive, since people have been asking me for my thoughts. I'll expand a bit on some of the key points here in a thread. 🧵
A technical deep-dive, since people have been asking me for my thoughts. I'll expand a bit on some of the key points here in a thread. 🧵
Reposted by Michael Kowalski
What drove Asian and Hispanic voters to the right in 2024
What drove Asian and Hispanic voters to the right in 2024
A guest post by Dhaaruni Sreenivas.
www.noahpinion.blog
November 20, 2024 at 8:46 AM
What drove Asian and Hispanic voters to the right in 2024
Reposted by Michael Kowalski
The Trump campaign's message was clearly for men. And he gained among men where Republicans had the most room to do so -- young men and men of color.
November 19, 2024 at 10:39 PM
The Trump campaign's message was clearly for men. And he gained among men where Republicans had the most room to do so -- young men and men of color.
An LLM that returns citations.
1/ Introducing ᴏᴘᴇɴꜱᴄʜᴏʟᴀʀ: a retrieval-augmented LM to help scientists synthesize knowledge 📚
@uwnlp.bsky.social & Ai2
With open models & 45M-paper datastores, it outperforms proprietary systems & match human experts.
Try out our demo!
openscholar.allen.ai
@uwnlp.bsky.social & Ai2
With open models & 45M-paper datastores, it outperforms proprietary systems & match human experts.
Try out our demo!
openscholar.allen.ai
November 19, 2024 at 11:42 PM
An LLM that returns citations.
Reposted by Michael Kowalski
1/ Introducing ᴏᴘᴇɴꜱᴄʜᴏʟᴀʀ: a retrieval-augmented LM to help scientists synthesize knowledge 📚
@uwnlp.bsky.social & Ai2
With open models & 45M-paper datastores, it outperforms proprietary systems & match human experts.
Try out our demo!
openscholar.allen.ai
@uwnlp.bsky.social & Ai2
With open models & 45M-paper datastores, it outperforms proprietary systems & match human experts.
Try out our demo!
openscholar.allen.ai
November 19, 2024 at 4:30 PM
1/ Introducing ᴏᴘᴇɴꜱᴄʜᴏʟᴀʀ: a retrieval-augmented LM to help scientists synthesize knowledge 📚
@uwnlp.bsky.social & Ai2
With open models & 45M-paper datastores, it outperforms proprietary systems & match human experts.
Try out our demo!
openscholar.allen.ai
@uwnlp.bsky.social & Ai2
With open models & 45M-paper datastores, it outperforms proprietary systems & match human experts.
Try out our demo!
openscholar.allen.ai
Reposted by Michael Kowalski
There are more than 300 sign languages across the world, and they evolved organically according to the needs of a deaf population, informed by the culture and context in which they developed. They should not be replaced by stripped-down imitations.
Signed Away | Sara Nović
The hearing world continues to pillage and caricature the deaf community—most recently with the proprietary, sign-based system Makaton.
thebaffler.com
November 19, 2024 at 12:01 AM
There are more than 300 sign languages across the world, and they evolved organically according to the needs of a deaf population, informed by the culture and context in which they developed. They should not be replaced by stripped-down imitations.
Fascinating emails from the Sam Altman, Elon Musk and others around the founding of OpenAI. www.lesswrong.com/posts/5jjk4C...
OpenAI Email Archives (from Musk v. Altman) — LessWrong
As part of the court case between Elon Musk and Sam Altman, a substantial number of emails between Elon, Sam Altman, Ilya Sutskever, and Greg Brockma…
www.lesswrong.com
November 17, 2024 at 1:38 AM
Fascinating emails from the Sam Altman, Elon Musk and others around the founding of OpenAI. www.lesswrong.com/posts/5jjk4C...