Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social
I like math. I like statistics. I like politics.
Posts are my own.
Posts are my own.
My fellow leftist AI skeptics would do better by moving on from dated arguments (tool calling has practically solved hallucinations since about two years ago) and move toward the current very real ones (coding agents make good enough things that your boss is going to work you to death)
Token Anxiety
i think i mostly echo this for myself. with so much that can be done, i often feel like i *should* be doing something, always
i think i mostly echo this for myself. with so much that can be done, i often feel like i *should* be doing something, always
February 15, 2026 at 8:11 PM
My fellow leftist AI skeptics would do better by moving on from dated arguments (tool calling has practically solved hallucinations since about two years ago) and move toward the current very real ones (coding agents make good enough things that your boss is going to work you to death)
I think there's going to have to be a lot of processes/procedures to think about, but I was trying really hard to deploy a cloudflare worker with python and Claude code was like "how about I just package this up in a dockerfile and use railway"
I understand why people are exhausted by AI hype, and why those of us squarely in the corner of "human dignity uber alles" see AI doomerism as self-serving hype, but I *really* think people on the left broadly need to start thinking seriously about the possibiltiy of the hype being...true.
February 11, 2026 at 5:33 PM
I think there's going to have to be a lot of processes/procedures to think about, but I was trying really hard to deploy a cloudflare worker with python and Claude code was like "how about I just package this up in a dockerfile and use railway"
Wonder if "don't be a panican" will be the equivalent of "throwing shoes at Bush" for this generation.
Peter Navarro: "The jobs report comes out tomorrow. We have to revise our expectations down significantly for what a monthly job number should look like ... Wall Street has to adjust for the fact that we're deporting millions of illegals out of the job market."
February 10, 2026 at 9:00 PM
Wonder if "don't be a panican" will be the equivalent of "throwing shoes at Bush" for this generation.
JV walking into Lakeland tomorrow
three men in suits and ties are standing in a hallway clapping
ALT: three men in suits and ties are standing in a hallway clapping
media.tenor.com
February 10, 2026 at 8:15 PM
JV walking into Lakeland tomorrow
Probably never more indication that they're not going to have the juice with today's wombo combo of "don't be a panican" and "China is going to cancel the Stanley Cup because of Canadian trade deals"
February 9, 2026 at 11:46 PM
Probably never more indication that they're not going to have the juice with today's wombo combo of "don't be a panican" and "China is going to cancel the Stanley Cup because of Canadian trade deals"
Dotcom bubble burst on March 10th FWIW
February 9, 2026 at 9:36 PM
Dotcom bubble burst on March 10th FWIW
Uh oh: hbr.org/2026/02/ai-d...
AI Doesn’t Reduce Work—It Intensifies It
One of the promises of AI is that it can reduce workloads so employees can focus more on higher-value and more engaging tasks. But according to new research, AI tools don’t reduce work, they consisten...
hbr.org
February 9, 2026 at 8:46 PM
Uh oh: hbr.org/2026/02/ai-d...
Is it bad when you're only a quarter way into your second term and Libertarians are already trying "we were always against this?"
I feel like I'm losing my goddamnned mind.
This op-ed was written by Kathrine Mangu-Ward. Katherine is editor-in-chief of Reason magazine.
Reason fired @shikhadalmia.bsky.social for being too anti-Trump.
This op-ed was written by Kathrine Mangu-Ward. Katherine is editor-in-chief of Reason magazine.
Reason fired @shikhadalmia.bsky.social for being too anti-Trump.
Opinion | Libertarians Tried to Warn You About Trump
www.nytimes.com
February 9, 2026 at 2:31 PM
Is it bad when you're only a quarter way into your second term and Libertarians are already trying "we were always against this?"
Reactionaries probably thought Kendrick was a one-off thing and that they would eventually get control of the culture, and oh boy were they very wrong on that.
I absolutely adore that he grabbed this opportunity with both hands and used the performance to open a window into the current state of Puerto Rico, his own arc, and make an argument — to situate the US as just one of many nations in America.
Missed Bad Bunny’s halftime show? Want to rewatch? (4x and counting for me). The NFL posted the whole performance on YouTube: on pace for 500k views in the first 30 minutes.
February 9, 2026 at 1:29 PM
Reactionaries probably thought Kendrick was a one-off thing and that they would eventually get control of the culture, and oh boy were they very wrong on that.
Give the punter the MVP
February 9, 2026 at 3:19 AM
Give the punter the MVP
Copilot in Excel, for the people who think they are above learning how to make a chart in Excel for some reason.
February 9, 2026 at 12:52 AM
Copilot in Excel, for the people who think they are above learning how to make a chart in Excel for some reason.
Ah yes, Mr. Rogers Neighborhood to sell mortgages, just like Fred would have wanted
February 9, 2026 at 12:35 AM
Ah yes, Mr. Rogers Neighborhood to sell mortgages, just like Fred would have wanted
Really funny how in about 18 months openai went from "let's be horny about the chat bots" to "use our stuff to build things"
February 9, 2026 at 12:07 AM
Really funny how in about 18 months openai went from "let's be horny about the chat bots" to "use our stuff to build things"
Oh great, Polymarket derivatives. Sure there's enough dumb money to keep that going indefinitely.
The reason it's gone up is because they made a different market for whether the Jesus market will reach 5c at any point, so people are buying Y on the Jesus market in the hopes that Y holders in the derivative market will pump the Jesus market to 5c.
February 8, 2026 at 9:39 PM
Oh great, Polymarket derivatives. Sure there's enough dumb money to keep that going indefinitely.
Only need D+13 generic to flip this seat and uhhhhhhh
February 8, 2026 at 9:09 PM
Only need D+13 generic to flip this seat and uhhhhhhh
Republicans really doing their part to bring us Reconstruction 2 by giving us another crack at party swapped 1865 congress
Just by looking at a cursory glance of the turnout by precinct, this doesn't look like a case of Democratic areas turning out more than Republican areas.
In fact, the opposite. Chasity Martinez won by winning over a bunch of Trump voters
In fact, the opposite. Chasity Martinez won by winning over a bunch of Trump voters
February 8, 2026 at 3:36 AM
Republicans really doing their part to bring us Reconstruction 2 by giving us another crack at party swapped 1865 congress
Just like with 2024, either the conventional wisdom is going to hold and spending morale on the guys with guns for no reason is going to backfire, or there's going to be completely new and modern ways to do patronage.
Acive duty military are being ordered to buy a ticket to Melania and watch it, whether they want to, or not. www.thedailybeast.com/obsessed/mil...
Military Pressured to See ‘Melania’ Against Their Will
A military group has evidence of troops being ordered into theater—the movie theater.
www.thedailybeast.com
February 7, 2026 at 3:28 PM
Just like with 2024, either the conventional wisdom is going to hold and spending morale on the guys with guns for no reason is going to backfire, or there's going to be completely new and modern ways to do patronage.
Look man, if we're going to have to pick one of these guys to make it out of the bubble, at least anthropic hires people who are smart enough to understand where the consumer is with these things
Anthropic just took a big swipe at OpenAI's decision to put ads in ChatGPT. Anthropic is airing ads mocking ChatGPT ads during the Super Bowl, and they're hilarious 😅 Anthropic is also committing to no ads in Claude www.theverge.com/ai-artificia...
February 4, 2026 at 6:52 PM
Look man, if we're going to have to pick one of these guys to make it out of the bubble, at least anthropic hires people who are smart enough to understand where the consumer is with these things
Can't wait for our future to be an arms race between chat bots arguing with each other over prior authorization: CMS Coverage Connector — Healthcare & Life Sciences MCP Connectors share.google/I6y6uwmGWOn9...
CMS Coverage Connector
The CMS Coverage Connector gives Claude access to Medicare Part B coverage policies from the CMS Coverage Database, including National Coverage Determinations (NCDs) and Local Coverage Determinatio...
share.google
February 4, 2026 at 4:10 PM
Can't wait for our future to be an arms race between chat bots arguing with each other over prior authorization: CMS Coverage Connector — Healthcare & Life Sciences MCP Connectors share.google/I6y6uwmGWOn9...
I'm sure rural America is going to love yelling at a chatbot while they're holding a towel to their head.
Dr Oz on rural healthcare: "There's no question about it, whether you want it or not -- the best way to help some of these communities is gonna be AI-based avatars"
February 3, 2026 at 12:03 AM
I'm sure rural America is going to love yelling at a chatbot while they're holding a towel to their head.
Compare this to rural America, where your only options are an Applebee's and a Culvers (which was only zoned after years of wining and dining the local government).
I don't want to do the whole "nowhere else in the world" shtick but the density of this kind of sublime cultural fusion in the US is really incredible. It is quite literally what makes the US the US.
Sixteen years in MN and I’ve never set foot in this miraculous place: a midwestern dive bar where everyone is Hmong, with an attached pool hall, EDM stage, and where you can order pho until midnight. The idea people would want to kick immigrants out of this region is insane.
January 31, 2026 at 1:56 PM
Compare this to rural America, where your only options are an Applebee's and a Culvers (which was only zoned after years of wining and dining the local government).
Very funny equilibrium is Trump fires Noem, Miller, etc. and goes back to the ballroom and keeps RFK (for some reason)
January 27, 2026 at 2:11 PM
Very funny equilibrium is Trump fires Noem, Miller, etc. and goes back to the ballroom and keeps RFK (for some reason)
Layoffs and pivot to AI incoming
NEWS: Bari Weiss will hold an all-hands meeting to discuss the future of CBS News tomorrow, per note that just went out to employees.
January 26, 2026 at 5:01 PM
Layoffs and pivot to AI incoming
Man, if everyone thought last summer was hot protest summer....
January 25, 2026 at 2:27 AM
Man, if everyone thought last summer was hot protest summer....