Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social
I like math. I like statistics. I like politics.
Posts are my own.
Posts are my own.
"Please, please, please, stop disqualifying me solely because I'm brown in the measure shape of the skulls party"
November 10, 2025 at 8:53 PM
"Please, please, please, stop disqualifying me solely because I'm brown in the measure shape of the skulls party"
TBF I don't think it's going to help, but insurance premiums generally are exploding and Fox News grandpa is declining, so I don't know how much anything the senate does is really going to hurt 2026 chances.
November 10, 2025 at 5:30 PM
TBF I don't think it's going to help, but insurance premiums generally are exploding and Fox News grandpa is declining, so I don't know how much anything the senate does is really going to hurt 2026 chances.
Media cycle moving so fast that the party is going to avoid the blowback that Senate Dems will eventually get.
November 10, 2025 at 5:20 AM
Media cycle moving so fast that the party is going to avoid the blowback that Senate Dems will eventually get.
They kept that powder dry for the ultimate leverage: a senate-only vote for FSAs. Isn't that what they're chanting in the streets?
November 10, 2025 at 5:07 AM
They kept that powder dry for the ultimate leverage: a senate-only vote for FSAs. Isn't that what they're chanting in the streets?
People underestimate how much politicians don't want to take votes, and the filibuster is the perfect combination of "don't vote on anything controversial" and "doesn't count because it was a procedural vote"
November 10, 2025 at 2:46 AM
People underestimate how much politicians don't want to take votes, and the filibuster is the perfect combination of "don't vote on anything controversial" and "doesn't count because it was a procedural vote"
I would put better money this being nearer toward the end of the senate than the party. Even centrist house Dems are starting to say the Senate needs to end.
November 10, 2025 at 2:33 AM
I would put better money this being nearer toward the end of the senate than the party. Even centrist house Dems are starting to say the Senate needs to end.
TBF, Dems get to have some vague vote on the Trump bucks in the future. Only *after* they reopen the government.
November 10, 2025 at 12:26 AM
TBF, Dems get to have some vague vote on the Trump bucks in the future. Only *after* they reopen the government.
It, uh, seems much more likely they fly a lot and don't want their holiday travel fucked up.
November 9, 2025 at 11:54 PM
It, uh, seems much more likely they fly a lot and don't want their holiday travel fucked up.
Red Wings might be bad.
November 9, 2025 at 11:30 PM
Red Wings might be bad.
We've seen a lot this admin, but no clearer signal that no one is telling him no when he chose D.C. over some other friendlier market
November 9, 2025 at 11:17 PM
We've seen a lot this admin, but no clearer signal that no one is telling him no when he chose D.C. over some other friendlier market
TBF this could be a vote-trading situation. She also is a better politician than the others so who knows.
November 9, 2025 at 10:59 PM
TBF this could be a vote-trading situation. She also is a better politician than the others so who knows.
Pretty clear trend in Trump 2.0 that the more small-d democratic an institution is the more resilient they've been to capitulation. House no exception here.
November 9, 2025 at 10:48 PM
Pretty clear trend in Trump 2.0 that the more small-d democratic an institution is the more resilient they've been to capitulation. House no exception here.
Yeah, it seems like a lot of negotiation still on time-frames. My guess is there will be a vote tonight that is voted down.
November 9, 2025 at 7:31 PM
Yeah, it seems like a lot of negotiation still on time-frames. My guess is there will be a vote tonight that is voted down.
Punting to Jan. 30th is honestly the type of high-risk scenario that this group of 8 seems to be avoiding.
November 9, 2025 at 7:30 PM
Punting to Jan. 30th is honestly the type of high-risk scenario that this group of 8 seems to be avoiding.
They clearly think a vote in December will be more damaging than protracting the shutdown, which, at least to me, makes me think they're worried about the donor class.
November 9, 2025 at 7:16 PM
They clearly think a vote in December will be more damaging than protracting the shutdown, which, at least to me, makes me think they're worried about the donor class.
A bill that extends the tax credits for a year would still be pretty dumb, but at least it's something. Doing it for a vote in December is malpractice.
November 9, 2025 at 7:06 PM
A bill that extends the tax credits for a year would still be pretty dumb, but at least it's something. Doing it for a vote in December is malpractice.
Texas drew lines on 2024 numbers, and yeah, Latinos at something around -40 means it's going to backfire hard.
November 9, 2025 at 7:05 PM
Texas drew lines on 2024 numbers, and yeah, Latinos at something around -40 means it's going to backfire hard.