Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
@rcastrocornejo.bsky.social
Political Science Professor @UMassLowell @UML_CPO | Co-PI @ENEM_Mexico | Partisanship, polarization, public opinion & surveys (+🇲🇽 politics)
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
far-right parties benefit electorally when the current government is on the left because there is an ideological shift to the right among the electorate when left-wing parties govern
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Left-Wing Governments and Far-Right Success | British Journal of Political Science | Cambridge Core
Left-Wing Governments and Far-Right Success - Volume 56
www.cambridge.org
February 5, 2026 at 12:11 AM
far-right parties benefit electorally when the current government is on the left because there is an ideological shift to the right among the electorate when left-wing parties govern
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
‼️‼️ Check out our new first online article! 👇
Do Voters Reject Gay Candidates? We find no punishment among the general electorate: voters in Argentina reward gay candidates, while Chilean and Mexican citizens are indifferent.
@rcastrocornejo.bsky.social
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Do Voters Reject Gay Candidates? We find no punishment among the general electorate: voters in Argentina reward gay candidates, while Chilean and Mexican citizens are indifferent.
@rcastrocornejo.bsky.social
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Do Voters Reject Gay Candidates? Partisanship, the Far-Right, and the Electoral Effect of Candidate Sexual Orientation in Latin America - Lautaro Cella, Rodrigo Castro Cornejo, 2026
In recent years, lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) rights and candidacies have expanded across Latin America. Some argue that such progress may prov...
journals.sagepub.com
January 29, 2026 at 7:02 AM
‼️‼️ Check out our new first online article! 👇
Do Voters Reject Gay Candidates? We find no punishment among the general electorate: voters in Argentina reward gay candidates, while Chilean and Mexican citizens are indifferent.
@rcastrocornejo.bsky.social
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Do Voters Reject Gay Candidates? We find no punishment among the general electorate: voters in Argentina reward gay candidates, while Chilean and Mexican citizens are indifferent.
@rcastrocornejo.bsky.social
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
New publication with Lautaro Cella
Do voters reject gay candidates in LA? We find that most voters in Chile, Arg, and Mex do not penalize them, but voters aligned with far-right parties (e.g. Republican Party in Chile) do reject them at the ballot box.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Do voters reject gay candidates in LA? We find that most voters in Chile, Arg, and Mex do not penalize them, but voters aligned with far-right parties (e.g. Republican Party in Chile) do reject them at the ballot box.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
January 28, 2026 at 10:55 PM
New publication with Lautaro Cella
Do voters reject gay candidates in LA? We find that most voters in Chile, Arg, and Mex do not penalize them, but voters aligned with far-right parties (e.g. Republican Party in Chile) do reject them at the ballot box.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Do voters reject gay candidates in LA? We find that most voters in Chile, Arg, and Mex do not penalize them, but voters aligned with far-right parties (e.g. Republican Party in Chile) do reject them at the ballot box.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
New publication with @turnbulldugarte.com in @psrm.bsky.social! 🧵
We study whether citizens’ liberal values are selective: do people support policies based on who promotes them?
Short answer: Yes, and it's driven by ethnic out-group disidentification. (1/11) 👇
doi.org/10.1017/psrm...
We study whether citizens’ liberal values are selective: do people support policies based on who promotes them?
Short answer: Yes, and it's driven by ethnic out-group disidentification. (1/11) 👇
doi.org/10.1017/psrm...
December 19, 2025 at 12:47 PM
New publication with @turnbulldugarte.com in @psrm.bsky.social! 🧵
We study whether citizens’ liberal values are selective: do people support policies based on who promotes them?
Short answer: Yes, and it's driven by ethnic out-group disidentification. (1/11) 👇
doi.org/10.1017/psrm...
We study whether citizens’ liberal values are selective: do people support policies based on who promotes them?
Short answer: Yes, and it's driven by ethnic out-group disidentification. (1/11) 👇
doi.org/10.1017/psrm...
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
Motivated reasoning is a well-understood phenomenon - or is it?
In a new paper just published at @collabrapsychology.bsky.social we discuss three known unknowns.
doi.org/10.1525/coll...
Here is a 🧵
In a new paper just published at @collabrapsychology.bsky.social we discuss three known unknowns.
doi.org/10.1525/coll...
Here is a 🧵
Known Unknowns in Motivated Reasoning: A Closer Look at Three Open Questions
Motivated reasoning denotes the phenomenon that individuals are more likely to arrive at conclusions that they want to arrive at. Properly understanding this phenomenon requires at least three things:...
doi.org
December 8, 2025 at 4:56 PM
Motivated reasoning is a well-understood phenomenon - or is it?
In a new paper just published at @collabrapsychology.bsky.social we discuss three known unknowns.
doi.org/10.1525/coll...
Here is a 🧵
In a new paper just published at @collabrapsychology.bsky.social we discuss three known unknowns.
doi.org/10.1525/coll...
Here is a 🧵
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
From our October National Poll @umlcpo.bsky.social
Democrats=95%, Independents=68%, Republicans=29%
18-29=70%, 30-44=68%, 45-64=61%, 65+=58%
More data: uml.edu/Research/public-opinion/polls/default.aspx
Democrats=95%, Independents=68%, Republicans=29%
18-29=70%, 30-44=68%, 45-64=61%, 65+=58%
More data: uml.edu/Research/public-opinion/polls/default.aspx
November 13, 2025 at 7:38 PM
From our October National Poll @umlcpo.bsky.social
Democrats=95%, Independents=68%, Republicans=29%
18-29=70%, 30-44=68%, 45-64=61%, 65+=58%
More data: uml.edu/Research/public-opinion/polls/default.aspx
Democrats=95%, Independents=68%, Republicans=29%
18-29=70%, 30-44=68%, 45-64=61%, 65+=58%
More data: uml.edu/Research/public-opinion/polls/default.aspx
From our Aug/Sept NYC poll @umlcpo.bsky.social
From our Aug/Sept NYC poll @umlcpo.bsky.social
More info: uml.edu/research/public-opinion/polls/2025/nyc-mayoral.aspx
More info: uml.edu/research/public-opinion/polls/2025/nyc-mayoral.aspx
November 10, 2025 at 3:28 AM
From our Aug/Sept NYC poll @umlcpo.bsky.social
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
What happened in Tuesday's elections? Here's our anatomy of a blue wave: www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
November 9, 2025 at 9:01 PM
What happened in Tuesday's elections? Here's our anatomy of a blue wave: www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
From our Aug/Sept NYC poll @umlcpo.bsky.social
More info: uml.edu/research/public-opinion/polls/2025/nyc-mayoral.aspx
More info: uml.edu/research/public-opinion/polls/2025/nyc-mayoral.aspx
November 7, 2025 at 8:23 PM
From our Aug/Sept NYC poll @umlcpo.bsky.social
More info: uml.edu/research/public-opinion/polls/2025/nyc-mayoral.aspx
More info: uml.edu/research/public-opinion/polls/2025/nyc-mayoral.aspx
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
Dem gains in this week's elections erased the inroads Trump made with non-white, young, and low-income voters in 2024. In fact, the R-to-D shift from 24 to 25 is double Trump's gains from 20-24. Claims of a GOP political realignment have been highly exaggerated
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
Trump's winning 2024 coalition has evaporated
Claims of a conservative realignment of non-whites, the working class, and young voters have been highly exaggerated
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 7, 2025 at 1:02 PM
Dem gains in this week's elections erased the inroads Trump made with non-white, young, and low-income voters in 2024. In fact, the R-to-D shift from 24 to 25 is double Trump's gains from 20-24. Claims of a GOP political realignment have been highly exaggerated
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
"claims of a fundamental realignment of American politics have been highly exaggerated"
this happens ***every single time*** someone proclaims a realignment
this happens ***every single time*** someone proclaims a realignment
Dem gains in this week's elections erased the inroads Trump made with non-white, young, and low-income voters in 2024. In fact, the R-to-D shift from 24 to 25 is double Trump's gains from 20-24. Claims of a GOP political realignment have been highly exaggerated
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
Trump's winning 2024 coalition has evaporated
Claims of a conservative realignment of non-whites, the working class, and young voters have been highly exaggerated
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 7, 2025 at 1:39 PM
"claims of a fundamental realignment of American politics have been highly exaggerated"
this happens ***every single time*** someone proclaims a realignment
this happens ***every single time*** someone proclaims a realignment
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
Trump at a -16 net approval rating among all adults now, per our average at @fiftyplusone.news, and flirting with dropping below 40% approval.
fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
November 7, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Trump at a -16 net approval rating among all adults now, per our average at @fiftyplusone.news, and flirting with dropping below 40% approval.
fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
Spanberger now at 15 and change. please feel free to read too much into it.
how to handicap VA results:
Sears + >0: hail king trump
Spanberger +1-5: dems in serious trouble
Spanberger +5-10: normal shift, anything could happen
Spanberger +10-15: don't read too much into it
Spanberger +15-20: read too much into it
Spanberger +20: hail queen aoc
Sears + >0: hail king trump
Spanberger +1-5: dems in serious trouble
Spanberger +5-10: normal shift, anything could happen
Spanberger +10-15: don't read too much into it
Spanberger +15-20: read too much into it
Spanberger +20: hail queen aoc
November 6, 2025 at 2:13 AM
Spanberger now at 15 and change. please feel free to read too much into it.
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
From our Aug/Sept NYC poll @umlcpo.bsky.social
More info: uml.edu/research/public-opinion/polls/2025/nyc-mayoral.aspx
More info: uml.edu/research/public-opinion/polls/2025/nyc-mayoral.aspx
November 6, 2025 at 6:38 PM
From our Aug/Sept NYC poll @umlcpo.bsky.social
More info: uml.edu/research/public-opinion/polls/2025/nyc-mayoral.aspx
More info: uml.edu/research/public-opinion/polls/2025/nyc-mayoral.aspx
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
I've spent my life advocating for a politics challenging oligarchy. It's been an unpleasant and difficult line of work, to say the least. So when I see the longtime opponents of this kind of politics suddenly appropriating it as their new "centrism," I'm happy.
A short 🧵...
A short 🧵...
Welcome To The New Uprising
Zohran Mamdani’s victory could be a turning point for Democrats — if the party finally learns from its past leaders’ betrayals.
www.levernews.com
November 6, 2025 at 12:04 AM
I've spent my life advocating for a politics challenging oligarchy. It's been an unpleasant and difficult line of work, to say the least. So when I see the longtime opponents of this kind of politics suddenly appropriating it as their new "centrism," I'm happy.
A short 🧵...
A short 🧵...
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
basically every 2024 truism is dead. Trump did not build a lasting multiracial coalition or turn young men into committed Republicans. You don’t need to cave on trans rights to win. The pundits have nothing left to tell you.
November 5, 2025 at 1:57 PM
basically every 2024 truism is dead. Trump did not build a lasting multiracial coalition or turn young men into committed Republicans. You don’t need to cave on trans rights to win. The pundits have nothing left to tell you.
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
The question for the midterms is:
where will Trump's approval rating be? He started the second term at +12, 8 points ahead of where he was in '17. now that gap has shrunk to about 2-3 points.
where will the economy be? Trump had a *roaring* economy in 2018.
where will Trump's approval rating be? He started the second term at +12, 8 points ahead of where he was in '17. now that gap has shrunk to about 2-3 points.
where will the economy be? Trump had a *roaring* economy in 2018.
November 5, 2025 at 2:31 PM
The question for the midterms is:
where will Trump's approval rating be? He started the second term at +12, 8 points ahead of where he was in '17. now that gap has shrunk to about 2-3 points.
where will the economy be? Trump had a *roaring* economy in 2018.
where will Trump's approval rating be? He started the second term at +12, 8 points ahead of where he was in '17. now that gap has shrunk to about 2-3 points.
where will the economy be? Trump had a *roaring* economy in 2018.
From our UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion NYC poll — broad support for Mamdani’s policies.
From our Aug/Sept NYC UMass-Lowell Center for Public Opinion Poll
More info: uml.edu/research/public-opinion/polls/2025/nyc-mayoral.aspx
More info: uml.edu/research/public-opinion/polls/2025/nyc-mayoral.aspx
November 5, 2025 at 7:27 PM
From our UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion NYC poll — broad support for Mamdani’s policies.
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
From our Aug/Sept NYC UMass-Lowell Center for Public Opinion Poll
More info: uml.edu/research/public-opinion/polls/2025/nyc-mayoral.aspx
More info: uml.edu/research/public-opinion/polls/2025/nyc-mayoral.aspx
November 5, 2025 at 7:24 PM
From our Aug/Sept NYC UMass-Lowell Center for Public Opinion Poll
More info: uml.edu/research/public-opinion/polls/2025/nyc-mayoral.aspx
More info: uml.edu/research/public-opinion/polls/2025/nyc-mayoral.aspx
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
Today is election day.
**More data from the new UMass-Lowell Center for Public Opinion National Poll**
52%=much/somewhat harder to pay for basic necessities
Less than 50K = 60%, 50K-100K = 52%, 100K+= 42%
White = 48%, Black=70%, Hispanic=54%
**More data from the new UMass-Lowell Center for Public Opinion National Poll**
52%=much/somewhat harder to pay for basic necessities
Less than 50K = 60%, 50K-100K = 52%, 100K+= 42%
White = 48%, Black=70%, Hispanic=54%
November 4, 2025 at 5:54 PM
Today is election day.
**More data from the new UMass-Lowell Center for Public Opinion National Poll**
52%=much/somewhat harder to pay for basic necessities
Less than 50K = 60%, 50K-100K = 52%, 100K+= 42%
White = 48%, Black=70%, Hispanic=54%
**More data from the new UMass-Lowell Center for Public Opinion National Poll**
52%=much/somewhat harder to pay for basic necessities
Less than 50K = 60%, 50K-100K = 52%, 100K+= 42%
White = 48%, Black=70%, Hispanic=54%
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
Trump has lost 15 points with independents since February
November 4, 2025 at 12:06 AM
Trump has lost 15 points with independents since February
More data from our new national poll 👇
** New UMass-Lowell / Center for Public Opinion National Poll **
If the 2026 elections for U.S. House of Representatives were held today...
If the 2026 elections for U.S. House of Representatives were held today...
November 4, 2025 at 12:11 AM
More data from our new national poll 👇
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
depending on model, this suggests a shift between D+11 and D+30 seats, based solely on Abramowitz's model.
** New UMass-Lowell / Center for Public Opinion National Poll **
If the 2026 elections for U.S. House of Representatives were held today...
If the 2026 elections for U.S. House of Representatives were held today...
November 3, 2025 at 10:33 PM
depending on model, this suggests a shift between D+11 and D+30 seats, based solely on Abramowitz's model.
More data from our national poll:
** New UMass-Lowell / Center for Public Opinion National Poll **
If the 2026 elections for U.S. House of Representatives were held today...
If the 2026 elections for U.S. House of Representatives were held today...
November 3, 2025 at 11:19 PM
More data from our national poll:
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
** New UMass-Lowell / Center for Public Opinion National Poll **
Presidential Approval = 42%
Independents = 30%
White = 50%, Black = 17%, Hispanic = 35%
18-29 = 28%, 30-44 = 41%, 45-64 = 49%, 65+ = 44%
More info: uml.edu/Research/public-opinion/polls/default.aspx
Presidential Approval = 42%
Independents = 30%
White = 50%, Black = 17%, Hispanic = 35%
18-29 = 28%, 30-44 = 41%, 45-64 = 49%, 65+ = 44%
More info: uml.edu/Research/public-opinion/polls/default.aspx
October 30, 2025 at 5:26 PM
** New UMass-Lowell / Center for Public Opinion National Poll **
Presidential Approval = 42%
Independents = 30%
White = 50%, Black = 17%, Hispanic = 35%
18-29 = 28%, 30-44 = 41%, 45-64 = 49%, 65+ = 44%
More info: uml.edu/Research/public-opinion/polls/default.aspx
Presidential Approval = 42%
Independents = 30%
White = 50%, Black = 17%, Hispanic = 35%
18-29 = 28%, 30-44 = 41%, 45-64 = 49%, 65+ = 44%
More info: uml.edu/Research/public-opinion/polls/default.aspx