Ramon Noguera (Sad Dad)
@raywalnut.bsky.social
"If our society had to agree upon a symbol, it would most likely not be a circle, a cross, or a line, but the dizzying exponential curve." Niklas Luhmann; Die Systemtheorie der Gesellschaft (2017: 300)
Reposted by Ramon Noguera (Sad Dad)
Los más ricos están concentrando cada vez más la propiedad de la vivienda. Este es el problema de la vivienda. Y también el problema de falta de inversión productiva: esos ahorros no van a empresas, tecnología y empleo.
elpais.com/economia/202...
elpais.com/economia/202...
January 30, 2026 at 10:57 AM
Los más ricos están concentrando cada vez más la propiedad de la vivienda. Este es el problema de la vivienda. Y también el problema de falta de inversión productiva: esos ahorros no van a empresas, tecnología y empleo.
elpais.com/economia/202...
elpais.com/economia/202...
"A fool and his money..."
On Polymarket, ‘privileged’ users made millions betting on war strikes and diplomatic strategy. What did they know beforehand?
On Polymarket, ‘privileged’ users made millions betting on war strikes and diplomatic strategy. What did they know beforehand?
The prediction market’s disciples and CEO believe its an unbiased way of knowing the future. But experts warn users could reshape the world to win big
www.theguardian.com
January 30, 2026 at 12:38 PM
"A fool and his money..."
Reposted by Ramon Noguera (Sad Dad)
The TACO cycle:
Markets want to price in TACO. But TACO only works if Trump sees stocks tank.
So we get a loop: Trump does things → nothing happens (markets already priced in TACO) → that emboldens him to do more → until markets start to think he might not TACO → stocks fall → TACO is restored.
Markets want to price in TACO. But TACO only works if Trump sees stocks tank.
So we get a loop: Trump does things → nothing happens (markets already priced in TACO) → that emboldens him to do more → until markets start to think he might not TACO → stocks fall → TACO is restored.
January 21, 2026 at 7:48 PM
The TACO cycle:
Markets want to price in TACO. But TACO only works if Trump sees stocks tank.
So we get a loop: Trump does things → nothing happens (markets already priced in TACO) → that emboldens him to do more → until markets start to think he might not TACO → stocks fall → TACO is restored.
Markets want to price in TACO. But TACO only works if Trump sees stocks tank.
So we get a loop: Trump does things → nothing happens (markets already priced in TACO) → that emboldens him to do more → until markets start to think he might not TACO → stocks fall → TACO is restored.
Honestly, the more I hear, the more it sounds like these guys got their world politics from playing Civ.
BARTIROMO: I mean, we talk about evil action from Putin going into Ukraine. People are looking at Greenland and saying, 'How is it possible the US can acquire another country even though they're pushing back?'
LUTNICK: I don't remember Greenland being another country. We're not taking over Denmark.
LUTNICK: I don't remember Greenland being another country. We're not taking over Denmark.
January 21, 2026 at 2:12 PM
Honestly, the more I hear, the more it sounds like these guys got their world politics from playing Civ.
Great thread on where we are and the complexity of the world ahead. I don't think however that it detracts from Carney's perspective. A new world order will be born out of the ashes (sigh) of what was. Carney offers one roadmap, not a ready made solution.
Time for some geopolitical home truths.
Starting with the new liberal darling Mark Carney. "building coalitions". But rejecting reopening trade talks with the UK because Canadian farmers object to the UK banning hormone treated beef.
Starting with the new liberal darling Mark Carney. "building coalitions". But rejecting reopening trade talks with the UK because Canadian farmers object to the UK banning hormone treated beef.
January 21, 2026 at 2:08 PM
Great thread on where we are and the complexity of the world ahead. I don't think however that it detracts from Carney's perspective. A new world order will be born out of the ashes (sigh) of what was. Carney offers one roadmap, not a ready made solution.
Reposted by Ramon Noguera (Sad Dad)
5/ 💡 Mensaje clave: no se puede evaluar con una lógica estática de “más oferta barata = precios más bajos”.
La respuesta dinámica de la inversión es central. 🎯
La respuesta dinámica de la inversión es central. 🎯
January 16, 2026 at 2:10 PM
5/ 💡 Mensaje clave: no se puede evaluar con una lógica estática de “más oferta barata = precios más bajos”.
La respuesta dinámica de la inversión es central. 🎯
La respuesta dinámica de la inversión es central. 🎯
L'esquerra europea, sempre llesta per disparar-se un tret al peu en nom dels seus mites nostàlgics.
Nuestra eurodiputada @estrellagalan.bsky.social y los eurodiputados de la coalición Sumar votan a favor de enviar el acuerdo UE-Mercosur al TJUE.
Siempre lo dijimos: no es un buen acuerdo. La UE debe escuchar a los pequeños campesinos, no solo a la agroindustria.
www.publico.es/internaciona...
Siempre lo dijimos: no es un buen acuerdo. La UE debe escuchar a los pequeños campesinos, no solo a la agroindustria.
www.publico.es/internaciona...
La Eurocámara paraliza la tramitación del acuerdo UE-Mercosur y lo envía a la Justicia europea
La votación ha tenido lugar de manera dividida dentro de los propios grupos parlamentarios.
www.publico.es
January 21, 2026 at 1:48 PM
L'esquerra europea, sempre llesta per disparar-se un tret al peu en nom dels seus mites nostàlgics.
Channeling Nehru for the 21st Century madness, Carney proposes a new "Third World" between China and USA. And who is to say he is wrong?
www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
Read Mark Carney's full speech on middle powers navigating a rapidly changing world | CBC News
Read the full text of Prime Minister Mark Carney's speech about a shakeup of the global order and role of middle powers at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
www.cbc.ca
January 21, 2026 at 7:53 AM
Channeling Nehru for the 21st Century madness, Carney proposes a new "Third World" between China and USA. And who is to say he is wrong?
www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
Reposted by Ramon Noguera (Sad Dad)
I think a bit of mourning is appropriate. The liberal international order got a lot of flack, it was hard to explain (was it even real?), US hypocrisy, etc. But frankly it is the best global order that ever existed. The goal should be to salvage as much as possible. The alternative is so much worse.
“The old order is not coming back. We should not mourn it. Nostalgia is not a strategy.”
As a piece of prose and geopolitical analysis Carney’s Davos speech feels history-making. paulwells.substack.com/p/the-carney...
As a piece of prose and geopolitical analysis Carney’s Davos speech feels history-making. paulwells.substack.com/p/the-carney...
The Carney doctrine
Open comment thread on the PM's Davos speech
paulwells.substack.com
January 20, 2026 at 8:55 PM
I think a bit of mourning is appropriate. The liberal international order got a lot of flack, it was hard to explain (was it even real?), US hypocrisy, etc. But frankly it is the best global order that ever existed. The goal should be to salvage as much as possible. The alternative is so much worse.
The great rationalisation seems to have started.
The world’s wrongest man, Daniel Hannan, contending that Trump’s utter unfitness for office only emerged *yesterday*…
Because it’s the only way the irredeemable idiot can cling on to the delusion that he’s not an irredeemable idiot.
Because it’s the only way the irredeemable idiot can cling on to the delusion that he’s not an irredeemable idiot.
January 19, 2026 at 11:16 PM
The great rationalisation seems to have started.
Reposted by Ramon Noguera (Sad Dad)
Not for the first time, it looks like Channel 4 just handed the keys to their socials to an evil genius:
January 19, 2026 at 3:48 PM
Not for the first time, it looks like Channel 4 just handed the keys to their socials to an evil genius:
Reposted by Ramon Noguera (Sad Dad)
Reposted by Ramon Noguera (Sad Dad)
Una portada 'satirica' de fa 10 anys. Ja no fa gràcia...
The Boston Globe Test:
This satirical front page imagined a Trump presidency in 2016. Critics (including Trump himself) dismissed it as "alarmist" and "propaganda" at the time.
Do these headlines feel normal today? Even...quaint?
If so: we have grown more accepting of what was once unthinkable.
This satirical front page imagined a Trump presidency in 2016. Critics (including Trump himself) dismissed it as "alarmist" and "propaganda" at the time.
Do these headlines feel normal today? Even...quaint?
If so: we have grown more accepting of what was once unthinkable.
January 16, 2026 at 2:48 PM
Una portada 'satirica' de fa 10 anys. Ja no fa gràcia...
At least we're no longer pretending this is not about the left becoming radicalised and 'woke'.
The EU’s centrist powers need to move to the right to reflect the new political reality, the leader of the European People’s Party Manfred Weber has told in an exclusive interview with POLITICO.
Europe shifted right — it’s time centrists do too, says Manfred Weber
EPP chief says he still wants to work with traditional allies, but they need to adapt.
www.politico.eu
January 15, 2026 at 1:10 PM
At least we're no longer pretending this is not about the left becoming radicalised and 'woke'.
Reposted by Ramon Noguera (Sad Dad)
These are my principles. If MAGA doesn't like them, I have others.
January 14, 2026 at 4:12 PM
These are my principles. If MAGA doesn't like them, I have others.
Reposted by Ramon Noguera (Sad Dad)
Marco Rubio, June 2012.
January 14, 2026 at 8:20 AM
Marco Rubio, June 2012.
Reposted by Ramon Noguera (Sad Dad)
If there's one empirical insight I'd want everyone to understand about American politics, it's this:
America's problems are solved problems. Just not here.
What would change if the US simply matched the average of 31 peer democracies? Not Denmark or Norway. Just the middle of the pack. 🧵
America's problems are solved problems. Just not here.
What would change if the US simply matched the average of 31 peer democracies? Not Denmark or Norway. Just the middle of the pack. 🧵
January 12, 2026 at 9:36 PM
If there's one empirical insight I'd want everyone to understand about American politics, it's this:
America's problems are solved problems. Just not here.
What would change if the US simply matched the average of 31 peer democracies? Not Denmark or Norway. Just the middle of the pack. 🧵
America's problems are solved problems. Just not here.
What would change if the US simply matched the average of 31 peer democracies? Not Denmark or Norway. Just the middle of the pack. 🧵
"Oiga, yo estoy en política para pillar pasta y cacho. Lo de Groenlandia, me pilla muy lejos."
Vox se reconoce “incompetente” sobre las amenazas de Trump de anexionarse Groenlandia www.eldiario.es/politica/ult...
January 12, 2026 at 2:06 PM
"Oiga, yo estoy en política para pillar pasta y cacho. Lo de Groenlandia, me pilla muy lejos."
Es que no les da...
January 12, 2026 at 12:34 PM
Es que no les da...
Today's 'Oh, fuck!' moment (European edition.)
Former Polish Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro, who faces multiple legal charges in Poland, has been granted political asylum and international protection in Hungary.
January 12, 2026 at 7:45 AM
Today's 'Oh, fuck!' moment (European edition.)