Dan Smith
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profdansmith.bsky.social
Dan Smith
@profdansmith.bsky.social
3K followers 750 following 120 posts
Political scientist at Penn. Comparative politics, parties, elections, electoral systems, representation, Japanese politics.
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Reposted by Dan Smith
leonardocarella.bsky.social
New paper out at @electoralstudies.bsky.social.

I show that - contrary to claims that personalised electoral systems are good for participation - Open Lists have no effect on turnout relative to Closed Lists; in fact, they increase rates of voter error. 🗳️
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Do open lists increase turnout? Probably not, but they increase rates of voter error: New evidence from Spain Leonardo Carella Abstract This article challenges the claim that open-list systems are beneficial for electoral participation, by reassessing and extending the analysis in a notable empirical paper that advances this argument. The paper (Carlos Sanz, “The effect of electoral systems on voter turnout: Evidence from a natural experiment”, PSRM, 2017) leverages a population-based discontinuity in Spanish municipal elections (1979–2011), where towns with fewer than 250 residents employ open lists whereas larger towns employ closed lists. Through a series of statistical tests and the inspection of alternative data sources, I show that the positive effect of open lists on turnout estimated in the paper is dubious, for two reasons: (1) non-random missing data, due to inconsistencies in how non-valid votes were recorded above and below the threshold, and (2) compound treatment issues, due to changes in list-length requirements at the threshold. I then proceed to show that, rather than improving turnout, the more complex open-list ballot actually hinders voters’ ability to express their preferences, by increasing the incidence of voter errors relative to closed lists (reflected in higher rates of ‘null’ voting). To support a causal interpretation of this relationship, I present evidence from the analysis of heterogeneous treatment effects, and show that a similar pattern obtains in Spanish general elections, where open and closed lists are used concurrently for the election of the country’s bicameral parliament. I conclude by discussing the implications of the analysis for implementing population-based regression discontinuities and evaluating electoral system effects.
February 5, 2026 at 11:16 AM
profdansmith.bsky.social
Very cool: Nikkei has teamed up with Teppei Yamamoto's company, VETA, to create a voting advice application for Japan's current lower house election using policy-based conjoint surveys. Try it out! ⬇️
nikkei.com 日経電子版 @nikkei.com · 7d
【衆議院選挙】
さあ投票に行こう　ボートマッチ・各党公約比較も
www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQO...

①ボートマッチ、あなたに近い政党は
②各党の公約を一斉比較
③候補者に政策アンケート
④国民審査の最高裁裁判官アンケート

#衆院選2026
【日経】衆議院選挙2026、さあ投票に行こう　ボートマッチ・各党公約比較も - 日本経済新聞
衆議院選挙は2月8日に投開票日を迎えます。日経電子版の衆院選特設ページは、投票先を考えるヒントとなる情報をワンストップでお届けします。①　ボートマッチ、あなたに近い政党は②　各党の公約を一斉比較③　候補者に政策アンケート④　国民審査の最高裁裁判官アンケートボートマッチ、あなたの考えに近い政党は日経電子版で提供する「衆議院選挙2026 VOTE MATCH（ボートマッチ）」は「コンジョイント分
www.nikkei.com
February 2, 2026 at 5:51 PM
Reposted by Dan Smith
jeas-journal.bsky.social
In Japanese politics, the Liberal Democratic Party faces a fragmented opposition. This article identifies a specific point of conflict that is preventing anti-government voters from unifying under a single party. Read more here: tinyurl.com/55auzbdh
Wedge Issue Politics in Japan: Why Not Revising the Constitution is Helping the Pro-Revision Ruling Party | Journal of East Asian Studies | Cambridge Core
Wedge Issue Politics in Japan: Why Not Revising the Constitution is Helping the Pro-Revision Ruling Party - Volume 23 Issue 2
tinyurl.com
February 1, 2026 at 3:14 PM
Reposted by Dan Smith
drewstommes.bsky.social
After years in academia, I’m exploring data science and research roles in industry.

I'm a quant. social scientist (PhD Yale ’24, NYU) focused on causal inference, experiments, and large-scale data.

Feel free to get in touch or share; all leads appreciated. dwstommes@gmail.com
January 27, 2026 at 6:45 PM
Reposted by Dan Smith
profdansmith.bsky.social
🎉 Just published! JAPAN DECIDES 2024! The most comprehensive analysis and interpretation of last year's general election in Japan––which saw the ruling LDP lose its seat majority and presaged further upheaval in 2025. E-book: link.springer.com/book/10.1007...
Japan Decides 2024
This book provides a coherent overall explanation for understanding in the election in both historical and comparative perspective
link.springer.com
November 22, 2025 at 11:03 PM
profdansmith.bsky.social
🎉 Just published! JAPAN DECIDES 2024! The most comprehensive analysis and interpretation of last year's general election in Japan––which saw the ruling LDP lose its seat majority and presaged further upheaval in 2025. E-book: link.springer.com/book/10.1007...
Japan Decides 2024
This book provides a coherent overall explanation for understanding in the election in both historical and comparative perspective
link.springer.com
November 22, 2025 at 11:03 PM
Reposted by Dan Smith
levimclaughlin.bsky.social
When there's a Japan's House of Representatives race (Lower House), where the Prime Minister sits, a team of political scientists puts together a volume in the Japan Decides series (published by Springer) to cover the election's lead-up and results (thread)

link.springer.com/book/10.1007...
Japan Decides 2024
This book provides a coherent overall explanation for understanding in the election in both historical and comparative perspective
link.springer.com
November 22, 2025 at 4:56 PM
Reposted by Dan Smith
aparc.stanford.edu
⏰ Asia scholars, hurry up! Applications for APARC's 2026-2028 postdoctoral fellowships are due December 1. We offer multiple positions for recent PhDs across disciplines working on diverse issues related to contemporary Asia.

👉 Learn more and join us at Stanford next fall > stanford.io/4mS1bj8
Collage of portraits of APARC's former postdoctoral fellows.
November 21, 2025 at 5:20 PM
profdansmith.bsky.social
Cool new paper by Trevor Incerti in the APSR! Political science research on Japan is undergoing a real renaissance in both its quality and relevance to the broader discipline––and a new generation of junior scholars like Trevor is leading the way.
cambup-polsci.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · Nov 5
#OpenAccess from @apsrjournal.bsky.social -

How Firms, Bureaucrats, and Ministries Benefit from the Revolving Door: Evidence from Japan - https://cup.org/43SvKxE

- TREVOR INCERTI

#FirstView
Banner with the hashtag #OpenAccess on a green background and the text "American Political Science Review" on a blue background below.
November 15, 2025 at 6:40 PM
Reposted by Dan Smith
harvardusjapan.bsky.social
Read "Winning Elections with Unpopular Policies: Valence Advantage and Single-Party Dominance in Japan," by
@shirokuriwaki.bsky.social, @profdansmith.bsky.social, and
@yusakuhoriuchi.bsky.social in Quarterly Journal of Political Science: www.nowpublishers.com/article/Deta... (open-access link).
now publishers - Winning Elections with Unpopular Policies: Valence Advantage and Single-Party Dominance in Japan
Publishers of Foundations and Trends, making research accessible
www.nowpublishers.com
November 12, 2025 at 5:03 PM
profdansmith.bsky.social
Join us for another exciting #JPOSS tomorrow night! Erik Wang (NYU) will present new research on state-building in medieval Japan, with discussion from Emily Sellars (Yale) and Jun Yamasaki (Kyoto). Details and registration below ⬇️
harvardusjapan.bsky.social Program on US-Japan Relations, Harvard University @harvardusjapan.bsky.social · Nov 12
Tomorrow, 8-9 pm ET: Join us for #JPOSS #57 to discuss Erik Wang's @erik-h-wang.bsky.social paper, “Too Much But Never Enough: Administrative Capacity and Backlashes to State-building in Medieval Japan,” w/ Emily Sellars, Jun Yamasaki, & Christina Davis. Paper & registration: shorturl.at/HQsg1
Erik Wang (New York University), “Too Much But Never Enough: Administrative Capacity and Backlashes to State-building in Medieval Japan” – JPOSS
jposs.org
November 12, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Reposted by Dan Smith
yusakuhoriuchi.bsky.social
New OA article w/ @shirokuriwaki.bsky.social and @profdansmith.bsky.social. Q. Why does Japan’s LDP stay dominant even when its policies aren’t preferred? A: valence > policy. Check it out here ➡️ [http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/100.00024134] #PoliSci #Japan #Elections
November 10, 2025 at 2:33 PM
profdansmith.bsky.social
Call for nominations for the Richard J. Samuels Dissertation Award in Japanese Studies from the United States-Japan Foundation (USJF). us-jf.org/en/news/usjf...
USJF Now Taking Nominations for Second Annual PhD Dissertation Award in Japanese Studies
USJF is accepting nominations for the 2026 Richard J. Samuels Dissertation Award in Japanese Studies, honoring excellence in social sciences research on Japan.
us-jf.org
November 7, 2025 at 8:35 PM
profdansmith.bsky.social
A very informative article explaining the conspiracy theories and ideologies motivating Japan's new far-right party, Sanseitō, which made substantial seat gains in last July's upper house election. Thanks to @rmarcantuoni.bsky.social & @robfahey.net for writing this.
November 5, 2025 at 6:25 PM
profdansmith.bsky.social
✨ Now at QJPS: "Winning Elections with Unpopular Policies: Valence Advantage and Single-Party Dominance in Japan" w/ @shirokuriwaki.bsky.social & @yusakuhoriuchi.bsky.social. Open-access link to article: www.nowpublishers.com/article/Deta...
Screenshot of title page of article, "Winning Elections with Unpopular Policies: Valence Advantage and Single-Party Dominance in Japan" at QJPS. Screenshot of Figure 4 in article: Decomposing the LDP's valence.
November 5, 2025 at 1:34 PM
Reposted by Dan Smith
harvardusjapan.bsky.social
Tuesday, 11/4, 8-9PM ET: Join Director Christina Davis and our Faculty Associates Amy Catalinac, Saori Katada, @adampliff.bsky.social, @lipscy.bsky.social, @profdansmith.bsky.social online to discuss "Japan's Prime Minister Takaichi: What Can We Expect?"
munkschool.utoronto.ca/event/japans...
Japan's New Prime Minister Takaichi: What Can We Expect?
munkschool.utoronto.ca
October 30, 2025 at 12:51 PM
profdansmith.bsky.social
Upcoming virtual seminar: "Japan's New Prime Minister Takaichi: What Can We Expect?" Register ⬇️
iu.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
Poster advertising upcoming virtual seminar about Japan's new prime minister.
October 24, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Reposted by Dan Smith
tompepinsky.com
One casualty in the Trump administration’s war on higher education is federal funding for area studies. This harms students, scholars, and U.S. national security.

It also comes at a time in which political science and area studies are more compatible than ever before. Read on for new research!

1/
Comparative Politics Needs Area Studies, and Area Studies Needs Comparative Politics
If you were a graduate student in political science between 1990 and 2010 or so, you probably experienced some heated debates about the future of area studies and its role in the discipline. This w…
tompepinsky.com
October 15, 2025 at 5:49 PM
Reposted by Dan Smith
levimclaughlin.bsky.social
Japan, ostensibly one of the least religious countries in the world, had its political order upended by the lay Buddhist organization Soka Gakkai. That is THE story about Friday's epochal shift in Japanese politics (thread follows):
October 10, 2025 at 6:55 PM
profdansmith.bsky.social
Sad news:
japantimes.co.jp The Japan Times @japantimes.co.jp · Sep 24
Takatoshi Ito, a Columbia University professor whose role in bringing inflation targeting to Japan helped trigger one of the most aggressive monetary easing experiments in modern history, has died. He was 74.
Takatoshi Ito, Japanese inflation target advocate, dies at 74
Ito died on Sept. 20 from an unspecified illness, according to a statement on his personal website.
ebx.sh
September 24, 2025 at 5:21 PM
profdansmith.bsky.social
Tonight! ⬇️ #JPOSS is on a Wednesday, rather than the usual Thursday, and features Prof. Jacques Hymans (USC), with "Does official historical memory discourse move public opinion?The case of Japan’s new banknote designs."
harvardusjapan.bsky.social Program on US-Japan Relations, Harvard University @harvardusjapan.bsky.social · Aug 29
Wed., 9/3, 8-9 pm ET: Join next #JPOSS to discuss Jacques Hymans's paper, “Official historical memory discourse and public opinion: The case of Japan’s new banknote designs” with Charles Crabtree, @yoshiono.bsky.social, and @lipscy.bsky.social. Paper and registration: jposs.org/event/hymans...
Jacques Hymans (University of Southern California), “Official historical memory discourse and public opinion: The case of Japan’s new banknote designs” – JPOSS
jposs.org
September 3, 2025 at 1:08 PM
Reposted by Dan Smith
harvardusjapan.bsky.social
Wed., 9/3, 8-9 pm ET: Join next #JPOSS to discuss Jacques Hymans's paper, “Official historical memory discourse and public opinion: The case of Japan’s new banknote designs” with Charles Crabtree, @yoshiono.bsky.social, and @lipscy.bsky.social. Paper and registration: jposs.org/event/hymans...
Jacques Hymans (University of Southern California), “Official historical memory discourse and public opinion: The case of Japan’s new banknote designs” – JPOSS
jposs.org
August 29, 2025 at 2:55 PM
profdansmith.bsky.social
Happy to see this article now "in print" at @polbehavior.bsky.social 🎉 Open-access:
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
August 29, 2025 at 12:18 PM
Reposted by Dan Smith
fiva.no
Why has women’s rise in politics been so slow even under PR?

Our new APSR paper [out today!] shows how “hidden majoritarianism” in proportional systems shapes women’s progression from entering lists to reaching top offices.
profdansmith.bsky.social Dan Smith @profdansmith.bsky.social · Aug 28
🎉Now online (open access): "Hidden Majoritarianism and Women’s Career Progression in Proportional Representation Systems" at @apsrjournal.bsky.social. @alicirone.bsky.social, @teele.bsky.social, Gary Cox, @fiva.no. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
August 28, 2025 at 1:02 PM
Reposted by Dan Smith
fiva.no
Norway votes in 11 days 🇳🇴

More than a century after PR was introduced, women still hold under half the seats. In Norway’s closed-list system, nomination order is decisive—women are projected to occupy ~44% of seats in 2025 (based on 2021 party seat shares across districts).
August 28, 2025 at 12:59 PM