Tim Supinie
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plustssn.autumnsky.us
Tim Supinie
@plustssn.autumnsky.us
Hydrometeor connoisseur 💧❄️🌪️ / Electron herder 💻 / Rhythmic airbender 🎸🎶 / Amateur edible chemist 🍞🍳 / @climbingfox86.autumnsky.us's worse half 👫 / OU SoM alum 👨‍🎓
Aurora faintly visible to the naked eye in Norman, OK.
November 12, 2025 at 2:19 AM
Lasagna for dinner tonight.
November 12, 2025 at 1:56 AM
Reposted by Tim Supinie
I first wrote and cron’d the script that makes these @NWSSPC upper air maps in November 1998. It’s been running and making the twice-daily UA maps for the past 27 years at this URL: www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/. That’s over 138,000 maps online and it’s still going!
November 10, 2025 at 9:18 PM
Reposted by Tim Supinie
Supreme Court won't overturn its landmark precedent recognizing a constitutional right to same-sex marriage https://cnn.it/4nGnEiN
November 10, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Reposted by Tim Supinie
I’m so fucking tired of the federal workforce being used as a political football. By all sides. At a bare minimum I want leaders with the courage to get in front of cameras and say that people missing paychecks is less important than particular legislation.
November 10, 2025 at 1:34 AM
Okay, so when should the government reopen and I start drawing a paycheck again? Next year? January 2027? Never?

Be angry about the ACA all you want, but don't act like keeping the government shut down indefinitely has no consequences.
Hey @hakeem-jeffries.bsky.social and @schumer.senate.gov: compromising with fascists is compliance. Read the room. Do your jobs. Protect your constituents.
November 10, 2025 at 1:03 AM
Reposted by Tim Supinie
I was going to wait until the shutdown was over but the cat is out if the bag. My first journal article is now live!

Convective Mode Classification and Distribution of Contiguous United States Tornado Events from 2003–2023 in: Weather and Forecasting - Ahead of print share.google/M3ty4pVs5Tld...
Convective Mode Classification and Distribution of Contiguous United States Tornado Events from 2003–2023
Abstract Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms represent a significant threat to life and property in the United States annually. Approximately one thousand tornadoes, two-hundred being significant (F/EF-2+), are documented on average every year. Using archived radar and Storm Data storm report information, 21 912 tornado grid hours were manually analyzed for convective mode from the years 2003–2023. This dataset builds upon prior work by Smith et al. (2012) (hereafter S12) by more than doubling the sample size to produce a robust, multidecadal climatology of tornadoes by convective mode. Comparisons were made between tornado samples spanning 2003–2011 and 2012–2023 to assess changes in the frequency and spatial occurrence of tornadoes. Convective mode characterization consisted of a subjective analysis of WSR-88D imagery into three categories: 1) supercell, 2) quasi–linear convective system (QLCS), and 3) disorganized. Spatial climatologies of the different modes were performed and Kernel Density Estimate plots of events per decade were generated as in S12. The highest climatological frequency for tornadic supercells is reaffirmed to extend from KS and OK east-southeastward to MS and AL, while QLCS tornadoes are more frequent from the northern Gulf Coast states into the lower Ohio River Valley. Comparing the new sample to the original, QLCS tornado relative frequency increased by over 100%. Substantial variation in QLCS tornado occurrence may be due to non-meteorological factors such as dual polarization radar and different observing/reporting practices.
share.google
November 5, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Reposted by Tim Supinie
Now that #Melissa is behind us as a tropical system, we need to have an honest conversation about how the federal weather enterprise is still running because of volunteers & unpaid employees, and how this "shutdown" is not really a shutdown.
https://tinyurl.com/2wk36686
Federal weather enterprise rises to the occasion again with Melissa - thanks to volunteers and unpaid employees
When a federal government "shutdown" is not really a shutdown. And also looking at the continued longer term impacts of ongoing and threatened budget cuts.
tinyurl.com
October 31, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Apparently, this AI inhabits an alternate universe where barbecue ribs have numbers like chemical formulas.
October 31, 2025 at 5:29 AM
Reposted by Tim Supinie
Appreciate @elizabarclay.bsky.social and NYT inviting me to share my perspectives about #Melissa. Between climate change and expanding bullseye, we need to be redoubling our efforts to be able forecast, mitigate and respond to these disastrous weather and water events www.nytimes.com/2025/10/29/o...
Opinion | In 40 Years of Forecasting, I’ve Never Seen a Hurricane Like Melissa
www.nytimes.com
October 29, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Reposted by Tim Supinie
I recommend anybody interested in donating uses the official website launched earlier today instead of the links I posted supportjamaica.gov.jm/donateq
October 28, 2025 at 10:27 PM
Reposted by Tim Supinie
I want to acknowledge that the hurricane hunters have been working relentlessly and in dangerous conditions - *without pay* - to do their best to help other countries (in this case).

I wish some in our federal government had half the dedication to public good and fellow humans.
October 28, 2025 at 8:36 PM
Reposted by Tim Supinie
One factor that supported Melissa reaching this record: an Argo float southeast of Jamaica shows a dramatic decrease in upper-level ocean temperature before (18 Oct) and after (28 Oct) the storm.

My heart goes out to the folks in Jamaica facing this powerful hurricane's numerous hazards today. 💔
October 28, 2025 at 5:27 PM
Reposted by Tim Supinie
This has probably already been posted here, but Melissa has displayed a classic mesovortex pattern that can be modeled in the simplest 2D atmospheric models ("nondivergent barotropic models"). Here's a comparison of this morning's VIS sat and Kossin and Schubert (2001) experiments.
October 28, 2025 at 4:48 PM
Reposted by Tim Supinie
#Melissa makes landfall in southwestern Jamaica near New Hope as a powerful category 5 hurricane. For the latest updates visit hurricanes.gov
October 28, 2025 at 5:06 PM
Reposted by Tim Supinie
This meso loop of #Melissa from CIRA is absolutely stunning at it makes its closes in on landfall in southwestern Jamaica.

rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/...

#hurricanemelissa
October 28, 2025 at 12:52 PM
Reposted by Tim Supinie
#Melissa unfortunately is still intensifying. A 9am EDT Tropical Cyclone Update indicates that winds are up to 180 mph, with an estimated minimum pressure of 896 mb.

You can see how GLM lightning has 📈 in the past hour, encircling the eye, with eye WV temp still increasing!
October 28, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Reposted by Tim Supinie
😳😳😳
October 28, 2025 at 1:06 PM
Reposted by Tim Supinie
Calling all ensemble forecast system enthusiasts! The State of Texas is funding development of a new ensemble prediction system (100 members, 2km grid spacing) with an embedded WoFS interface, to be developed at Texas Tech! Passing along 3 open research scientist positions towards that development:
October 27, 2025 at 5:13 PM
Reposted by Tim Supinie
"The NOAA aircraft left the storm early after
experiencing severe turbulence in the southwestern eyewall."

These men and women are not being paid due to the US government shutdown. Not to mention that according to AOML's director emeritus Robert Atlas, they are down 40-50% staff. #Melissa
October 27, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Reposted by Tim Supinie
Lightning flashes within the powerful eye wall of Hurricane Melissa.

Incredible imagery this morning of Melissa, a Category 5 storm, south of Jamaica.
October 27, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Reposted by Tim Supinie
Alan has it right - we had NOTHING to do with "climate hysteria" and the sudden inability to focus on trustworthy AI for weather is only going to hurt us. We need to find a way to fund this critical research!
NPR ran a story last night about NSF terminating funding for AI focused meteorology research & the (IMO) insane explanation they got from OMB. I shared my perspective on this and our continued insistence to shoot ourselves in the foot when it comes to scientific R&D. tinyurl.com/2kzujwz8
Trump Administration confirms that NSF AI meteorology institute funding cut because of "climate hysteria"
Ending of NOAA billion dollar climate disaster tracking another example of us becoming less prepared for a future affected by climate change.
tinyurl.com
October 23, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Reposted by Tim Supinie
As we reach the midpoint of October, I am disturbed by the lack of urgency with regard to resolving the government shutdown. IMO federal employees are being used as pawns, especially those who are providing critical services without pay. More perspective: https://tinyurl.com/4a49bckf
No end in sight to the federal government shutdown
Talking about practical implications for federal weather and climate science
tinyurl.com
October 15, 2025 at 5:51 PM
@sebastianlague.bsky.social, excellent video on smoke simulation!

If you're interested, I wrote a solver for the shallow water equations in a WebGL fragment shader. I used 2nd-order advection and 3rd-order Runge-Kutta time stepping.

Code and implementation details: github.com/tsupinie/flu...
Shallow Water Equations
Shallow water equation solver in the browser
autumnsky.us
October 11, 2025 at 3:47 PM
Reposted by Tim Supinie
We are thrilled to announce that our beta experience is now available to everyone! Redesigned for every screen. The new responsive layout delivers a smooth, native-like experience—whether you’re on desktop or mobile.

beta.pivotalweather.com
October 8, 2025 at 7:17 PM