Pax Lusitanica
@paxlusitanica.bsky.social
OSINT enthusiast and armchair strategist. Reading the news, looking at maps.
🇩🇰 expatriate in 🇵🇹, married to a 🇹🇼 and closely following events in 🇺🇦.
Still on Twitter, but only active here now.
🇩🇰 expatriate in 🇵🇹, married to a 🇹🇼 and closely following events in 🇺🇦.
Still on Twitter, but only active here now.
Pinned
Pax Lusitanica
@paxlusitanica.bsky.social
· Oct 20
What is Ukraine saving its missiles for?
In this video, I discuss President Zelensky's announcement that attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure this winter will be met with similar attacks on the Russian power grid. This is interesting b...
www.logicofwar.com
Ukraine has been stockpiling Flamingo missiles, with probably a few hundred available at present. Whether originally intended for deterrence or as offensive weapons, renewed Russian strikes may force Ukraine to respond in kind. So what could they aim for? 1/20
www.logicofwar.com/what-is-ukra...
www.logicofwar.com/what-is-ukra...
Reposted by Pax Lusitanica
Fuel shortages of 92- and especially 95-octane petrol are now being reported in Yaroslavl Oblast.
Minor detail: That region hosts the fifth-largest oil refinery in Russia.
Minor detail: That region hosts the fifth-largest oil refinery in Russia.
Updated map of the regions of Russia where there are shortages of gasoline or diesel and how early was it first reported. As always it's worse in the occupied territories. Added just one region since the last update, Yaroslavl.
November 2, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Fuel shortages of 92- and especially 95-octane petrol are now being reported in Yaroslavl Oblast.
Minor detail: That region hosts the fifth-largest oil refinery in Russia.
Minor detail: That region hosts the fifth-largest oil refinery in Russia.
This is potentially VERY important. Tuapse is one of the most important ports for Russian oil exports. Ukrainian naval drones attacked a different part of the port in September.
bsky.app/profile/spec...
bsky.app/profile/spec...
November 1, 2025 at 10:54 PM
This is potentially VERY important. Tuapse is one of the most important ports for Russian oil exports. Ukrainian naval drones attacked a different part of the port in September.
bsky.app/profile/spec...
bsky.app/profile/spec...
Ukraine's targeted strikes of TPPs in Russia is quite a new phenomenon. It may be partly viewed as a tit-for-tat strategy aiming to deter Russian attacks on similar Ukrainian facilities.
We can expect more such strikes, albeit not against nuclear power plants like those near Smolensk and Kursk. 1/2
We can expect more such strikes, albeit not against nuclear power plants like those near Smolensk and Kursk. 1/2
@paxlusitanica.bsky.social , Ukraine seems to have hit the TPP in Oryol tonight. What is your assessment of their strategy and its progress?
October 31, 2025 at 9:03 AM
Ukraine's targeted strikes of TPPs in Russia is quite a new phenomenon. It may be partly viewed as a tit-for-tat strategy aiming to deter Russian attacks on similar Ukrainian facilities.
We can expect more such strikes, albeit not against nuclear power plants like those near Smolensk and Kursk. 1/2
We can expect more such strikes, albeit not against nuclear power plants like those near Smolensk and Kursk. 1/2
Reposted by Pax Lusitanica
"Xi told me that he would not sell weapons to Russia, but I know one thing: China is helping Russia. China is not helping Ukraine. China is not interested in our victory and Russia's defeat," Zelensky said during a press conference in Brussels.
October 23, 2025 at 3:18 PM
"Xi told me that he would not sell weapons to Russia, but I know one thing: China is helping Russia. China is not helping Ukraine. China is not interested in our victory and Russia's defeat," Zelensky said during a press conference in Brussels.
Ukraine has been stockpiling Flamingo missiles, with probably a few hundred available at present. Whether originally intended for deterrence or as offensive weapons, renewed Russian strikes may force Ukraine to respond in kind. So what could they aim for? 1/20
www.logicofwar.com/what-is-ukra...
www.logicofwar.com/what-is-ukra...
What is Ukraine saving its missiles for?
In this video, I discuss President Zelensky's announcement that attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure this winter will be met with similar attacks on the Russian power grid. This is interesting b...
www.logicofwar.com
October 20, 2025 at 10:21 AM
Ukraine has been stockpiling Flamingo missiles, with probably a few hundred available at present. Whether originally intended for deterrence or as offensive weapons, renewed Russian strikes may force Ukraine to respond in kind. So what could they aim for? 1/20
www.logicofwar.com/what-is-ukra...
www.logicofwar.com/what-is-ukra...
My powers of prediction are not 100% reliable, but my track record has been improving lately.
The 330kV electrical substation in Dzhankoy is a key bottleneck in Crimea's power grid.
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
The 330kV electrical substation in Dzhankoy is a key bottleneck in Crimea's power grid.
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
October 17, 2025 at 1:43 PM
My powers of prediction are not 100% reliable, but my track record has been improving lately.
The 330kV electrical substation in Dzhankoy is a key bottleneck in Crimea's power grid.
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
The 330kV electrical substation in Dzhankoy is a key bottleneck in Crimea's power grid.
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
Reposted by Pax Lusitanica
This is why the hype around Tomahawk missiles is a ridiculous distraction. The Americans are no longer a reliable ally, and in their current path to internal paralysis not much help to traditional adversaries either.
Better for EU-UK and Ukraine to expand production and reduce reliance on the US
Better for EU-UK and Ukraine to expand production and reduce reliance on the US
Kind of amazing how so many geopolitical deepsea divers predicting Trump's next diplomatic triumph haven't processed what a US government shutdown in its third week and troops in US streets might say about America's long term prospects for shaping the new global order
October 16, 2025 at 6:25 PM
This is why the hype around Tomahawk missiles is a ridiculous distraction. The Americans are no longer a reliable ally, and in their current path to internal paralysis not much help to traditional adversaries either.
Better for EU-UK and Ukraine to expand production and reduce reliance on the US
Better for EU-UK and Ukraine to expand production and reduce reliance on the US
This is one of the most easily-readable macroeconomic assessments of the Russian economy that I have read for a while. Thundering applause!
October 15, 2025 at 8:39 AM
This is one of the most easily-readable macroeconomic assessments of the Russian economy that I have read for a while. Thundering applause!
The Ukrainian strikes against the 330kV substation at Simferopol and the 220kV 'Kafa' substation near Feodosia may prove devastating for the electricity grid on Crimea.
Without these two electrical nodal points, much of the peninsula will be confined to cold and darkness.
bsky.app/profile/did:...
Without these two electrical nodal points, much of the peninsula will be confined to cold and darkness.
bsky.app/profile/did:...
October 13, 2025 at 9:41 AM
The Ukrainian strikes against the 330kV substation at Simferopol and the 220kV 'Kafa' substation near Feodosia may prove devastating for the electricity grid on Crimea.
Without these two electrical nodal points, much of the peninsula will be confined to cold and darkness.
bsky.app/profile/did:...
Without these two electrical nodal points, much of the peninsula will be confined to cold and darkness.
bsky.app/profile/did:...
Reposted by Pax Lusitanica
🚨🚨🚨 EXCLUSIVE PHOTO 🚨🚨🚨
The 🇷🇺 Russian 🤿 submarine NOVOROSSIYSK resurfaces!
Following recent rumors about technical problems, she continues its journey toward the Baltic Sea for repairs. 🛠️
The 🇷🇺 Russian 🤿 submarine NOVOROSSIYSK resurfaces!
Following recent rumors about technical problems, she continues its journey toward the Baltic Sea for repairs. 🛠️
October 6, 2025 at 2:44 PM
🚨🚨🚨 EXCLUSIVE PHOTO 🚨🚨🚨
The 🇷🇺 Russian 🤿 submarine NOVOROSSIYSK resurfaces!
Following recent rumors about technical problems, she continues its journey toward the Baltic Sea for repairs. 🛠️
The 🇷🇺 Russian 🤿 submarine NOVOROSSIYSK resurfaces!
Following recent rumors about technical problems, she continues its journey toward the Baltic Sea for repairs. 🛠️
Time for an updated bingo card! Again, all credit goes to the original author of the work, @KHoholenko on Twitter.
In the quoted post, you may find my original recommendations on useful resources when monitoring Ukraine's progress in destroying Russian oil refineries. 1/4
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
In the quoted post, you may find my original recommendations on useful resources when monitoring Ukraine's progress in destroying Russian oil refineries. 1/4
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
October 5, 2025 at 10:57 AM
Time for an updated bingo card! Again, all credit goes to the original author of the work, @KHoholenko on Twitter.
In the quoted post, you may find my original recommendations on useful resources when monitoring Ukraine's progress in destroying Russian oil refineries. 1/4
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
In the quoted post, you may find my original recommendations on useful resources when monitoring Ukraine's progress in destroying Russian oil refineries. 1/4
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
Reposted by Pax Lusitanica
One operational A-50U (RF-94268, “Taganrog”, Red 41) arrived at the base between September 24 and 28, likely for maintenance or repair.
❗️ This is the first time such a valuable aircraft for Russia has been based so close to the frontline, within the reach of most Ukrainian UAVs.
❗️ This is the first time such a valuable aircraft for Russia has been based so close to the frontline, within the reach of most Ukrainian UAVs.
October 3, 2025 at 7:22 PM
One operational A-50U (RF-94268, “Taganrog”, Red 41) arrived at the base between September 24 and 28, likely for maintenance or repair.
❗️ This is the first time such a valuable aircraft for Russia has been based so close to the frontline, within the reach of most Ukrainian UAVs.
❗️ This is the first time such a valuable aircraft for Russia has been based so close to the frontline, within the reach of most Ukrainian UAVs.
An unidentified aircraft from Beja Air Base is currently circling over the exact area where the Russian ships 'RN Neptune' and 'Lauga' are located, possibly escorting the accident-affected (?) Kilo-class submarine 'Novorossiysk'.
Probably a P-3 Orion from 601st Squadron of the Portuguese Air Force.
Probably a P-3 Orion from 601st Squadron of the Portuguese Air Force.
September 30, 2025 at 9:52 AM
An unidentified aircraft from Beja Air Base is currently circling over the exact area where the Russian ships 'RN Neptune' and 'Lauga' are located, possibly escorting the accident-affected (?) Kilo-class submarine 'Novorossiysk'.
Probably a P-3 Orion from 601st Squadron of the Portuguese Air Force.
Probably a P-3 Orion from 601st Squadron of the Portuguese Air Force.
Reposted by Pax Lusitanica
Taiwan's foreign minister in Warsaw:
“It is high time for Europe to stand with Taiwan, to forge a robust coalition for our shared values, halt expansion of authoritarian regimes. Taiwan is ready to work with Europe; is Europe ready to work with Taiwan?”
“It is high time for Europe to stand with Taiwan, to forge a robust coalition for our shared values, halt expansion of authoritarian regimes. Taiwan is ready to work with Europe; is Europe ready to work with Taiwan?”
High time for Europe to stand with Taiwan, says foreign minister in Poland
European countries only maintain formal diplomatic ties with Beijing and not Taipei.
www.freemalaysiatoday.com
September 30, 2025 at 8:31 AM
Taiwan's foreign minister in Warsaw:
“It is high time for Europe to stand with Taiwan, to forge a robust coalition for our shared values, halt expansion of authoritarian regimes. Taiwan is ready to work with Europe; is Europe ready to work with Taiwan?”
“It is high time for Europe to stand with Taiwan, to forge a robust coalition for our shared values, halt expansion of authoritarian regimes. Taiwan is ready to work with Europe; is Europe ready to work with Taiwan?”
Reposted by Pax Lusitanica
🔻 Satellite images of 🇷🇺 Kacha Air Base as of September 25, 08:22 UTC
The airbase housed 5 Be-12 (Mail), 1 An-26 (Curl), 3 MiG-29K (Fulcrum-D), 4 Mi-8 (Hip) and 4 Ka-27/29 (Helix).
The airbase housed 5 Be-12 (Mail), 1 An-26 (Curl), 3 MiG-29K (Fulcrum-D), 4 Mi-8 (Hip) and 4 Ka-27/29 (Helix).
September 27, 2025 at 9:43 PM
🔻 Satellite images of 🇷🇺 Kacha Air Base as of September 25, 08:22 UTC
The airbase housed 5 Be-12 (Mail), 1 An-26 (Curl), 3 MiG-29K (Fulcrum-D), 4 Mi-8 (Hip) and 4 Ka-27/29 (Helix).
The airbase housed 5 Be-12 (Mail), 1 An-26 (Curl), 3 MiG-29K (Fulcrum-D), 4 Mi-8 (Hip) and 4 Ka-27/29 (Helix).
I finally got around to have a better look at the fire in Novorossiysk today, which I first suspected had hit a local oil depot. Sadly, it turns out that was not the case. The fire in fact came from a residential building in flames. 1/4
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
September 24, 2025 at 7:30 PM
I finally got around to have a better look at the fire in Novorossiysk today, which I first suspected had hit a local oil depot. Sadly, it turns out that was not the case. The fire in fact came from a residential building in flames. 1/4
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
Today's Ukrainian attack against Novorossiysk appears to have hit oil installations near the inner port and the main railway station.
This video shows an easily recognisable church on the southern shoreline (44.701420, 37.788576), looking north, towards the city centre.
This video shows an easily recognisable church on the southern shoreline (44.701420, 37.788576), looking north, towards the city centre.
Ahhhh!!! That smoke sure looks like an oil fire…
🇷🇺: “all targets were shot down”
🇷🇺: “all targets were shot down”
September 24, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Today's Ukrainian attack against Novorossiysk appears to have hit oil installations near the inner port and the main railway station.
This video shows an easily recognisable church on the southern shoreline (44.701420, 37.788576), looking north, towards the city centre.
This video shows an easily recognisable church on the southern shoreline (44.701420, 37.788576), looking north, towards the city centre.
Reposted by Pax Lusitanica
Europe emerges from shadows at Taiwan’s largest defence show
"In an arms market long dominated by US, Europe raised its profile at Taiwan’s largest defence show as countries take tentative steps to help Taiwan deal with an increasingly aggressive China"
"In an arms market long dominated by US, Europe raised its profile at Taiwan’s largest defence show as countries take tentative steps to help Taiwan deal with an increasingly aggressive China"
Europe emerges from the shadows at Taiwan’s largest defence show
Taipei has long relied on the US for arms, with no major European orders in three decades due to fears of angering Beijing.
www.freemalaysiatoday.com
September 22, 2025 at 8:10 AM
Europe emerges from shadows at Taiwan’s largest defence show
"In an arms market long dominated by US, Europe raised its profile at Taiwan’s largest defence show as countries take tentative steps to help Taiwan deal with an increasingly aggressive China"
"In an arms market long dominated by US, Europe raised its profile at Taiwan’s largest defence show as countries take tentative steps to help Taiwan deal with an increasingly aggressive China"
Amidst the many recent attacks on Russian refineries, Ukrainian drones also hit an oil depot in Prokhorovka, Belgorod Oblast, on 9 September.
Comparing Sentinel-2 satellite imagery from 2 and 12 September, it is clear that the facility was almost entirely destroyed. 1/2
bsky.app/profile/noel...
Comparing Sentinel-2 satellite imagery from 2 and 12 September, it is clear that the facility was almost entirely destroyed. 1/2
bsky.app/profile/noel...
September 21, 2025 at 11:16 AM
Amidst the many recent attacks on Russian refineries, Ukrainian drones also hit an oil depot in Prokhorovka, Belgorod Oblast, on 9 September.
Comparing Sentinel-2 satellite imagery from 2 and 12 September, it is clear that the facility was almost entirely destroyed. 1/2
bsky.app/profile/noel...
Comparing Sentinel-2 satellite imagery from 2 and 12 September, it is clear that the facility was almost entirely destroyed. 1/2
bsky.app/profile/noel...
Struggling to keep track of - or make sense of - Ukrainian attacks against Russian oil refineries? Let me try to help:
Firstly, see this 'Bingo card' made by @KHoholenko on Twitter. Note that the effect of individual drone strikes differ. A 'hit' refinery is not necessarily a 'destroyed' one. 1/6
Firstly, see this 'Bingo card' made by @KHoholenko on Twitter. Note that the effect of individual drone strikes differ. A 'hit' refinery is not necessarily a 'destroyed' one. 1/6
September 20, 2025 at 1:22 PM
Struggling to keep track of - or make sense of - Ukrainian attacks against Russian oil refineries? Let me try to help:
Firstly, see this 'Bingo card' made by @KHoholenko on Twitter. Note that the effect of individual drone strikes differ. A 'hit' refinery is not necessarily a 'destroyed' one. 1/6
Firstly, see this 'Bingo card' made by @KHoholenko on Twitter. Note that the effect of individual drone strikes differ. A 'hit' refinery is not necessarily a 'destroyed' one. 1/6
Reposted by Pax Lusitanica
Russia recently built a new drone launch site in Bryansk oblast, just 35 kilometers from the border with Ukraine.
Imagery from Maxar via @skyfi.bsky.social
Imagery from Maxar via @skyfi.bsky.social
September 18, 2025 at 4:59 PM
Russia recently built a new drone launch site in Bryansk oblast, just 35 kilometers from the border with Ukraine.
Imagery from Maxar via @skyfi.bsky.social
Imagery from Maxar via @skyfi.bsky.social
A notorious Russia-linked shadow fleet tanker, the 'Jag', has recently changed its name to 'Sea Raker' and is now sailing under the Portuguese flag.
I hope the International Shipping Register of Madeira and the Portuguese authorities are paying attention.
war-sanctions.gur.gov.ua/en/transport...
I hope the International Shipping Register of Madeira and the Portuguese authorities are paying attention.
war-sanctions.gur.gov.ua/en/transport...
SEA RAKER; IMO 9266762
Marine and aircraft vessels
war-sanctions.gur.gov.ua
September 17, 2025 at 7:57 PM
A notorious Russia-linked shadow fleet tanker, the 'Jag', has recently changed its name to 'Sea Raker' and is now sailing under the Portuguese flag.
I hope the International Shipping Register of Madeira and the Portuguese authorities are paying attention.
war-sanctions.gur.gov.ua/en/transport...
I hope the International Shipping Register of Madeira and the Portuguese authorities are paying attention.
war-sanctions.gur.gov.ua/en/transport...
In what PM Mette Frederiksen calls "a paradigmatic shift", Denmark has stated that it will acquire long-range precision weapons. Further details were not disclosed.
"There is no doubt that Russia will be a threat to Europe and Denmark for years to come", she added.
www.reuters.com/world/denmar...
"There is no doubt that Russia will be a threat to Europe and Denmark for years to come", she added.
www.reuters.com/world/denmar...
www.reuters.com
September 17, 2025 at 11:43 AM
In what PM Mette Frederiksen calls "a paradigmatic shift", Denmark has stated that it will acquire long-range precision weapons. Further details were not disclosed.
"There is no doubt that Russia will be a threat to Europe and Denmark for years to come", she added.
www.reuters.com/world/denmar...
"There is no doubt that Russia will be a threat to Europe and Denmark for years to come", she added.
www.reuters.com/world/denmar...
Reposted by Pax Lusitanica
Unfortunately there seems to be no real competition to Boeings P8 - when it comes to surveillance of large sea areas in the Arctics = 🇬🇱
🇩🇰 has given up on loaning such airplanes - all are used a lot by NATO partners these day.
Another huge investment in defense. www.dr.dk/nyheder/indl...
🇩🇰 has given up on loaning such airplanes - all are used a lot by NATO partners these day.
Another huge investment in defense. www.dr.dk/nyheder/indl...
Korrespondent om milliardinvestering i overvågningsfly: 'Man har været desperat'
Danmark har indset, at de ikke kan vente på nabolande og selv bliver nødt til at købe flyene, fortæller DR's forsvarskorrespondent.
www.dr.dk
September 15, 2025 at 5:19 PM
Unfortunately there seems to be no real competition to Boeings P8 - when it comes to surveillance of large sea areas in the Arctics = 🇬🇱
🇩🇰 has given up on loaning such airplanes - all are used a lot by NATO partners these day.
Another huge investment in defense. www.dr.dk/nyheder/indl...
🇩🇰 has given up on loaning such airplanes - all are used a lot by NATO partners these day.
Another huge investment in defense. www.dr.dk/nyheder/indl...