Pax Lusitanica
@paxlusitanica.bsky.social
OSINT enthusiast and armchair strategist. Reading the news, looking at maps.
🇩🇰 expatriate in 🇵🇹, married to a 🇹🇼 and closely following events in 🇺🇦.
Still on Twitter, but only active here now.
🇩🇰 expatriate in 🇵🇹, married to a 🇹🇼 and closely following events in 🇺🇦.
Still on Twitter, but only active here now.
I think this image belongs here.
November 27, 2025 at 5:26 PM
I think this image belongs here.
Pure karma. Cheboksary is a place where the local authorities will fine you for shouting "Slava Ukraini"!
November 26, 2025 at 12:10 AM
Pure karma. Cheboksary is a place where the local authorities will fine you for shouting "Slava Ukraini"!
I had hoped for my recent prediction of a Ukrainian attack against the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) in Novorossiysk to come true.
Instead it was a much older prediction of mine that hit the mark last night. Seriously, Taganrog had this coming. (But an A-60? That was admittedly unexpected.)
Instead it was a much older prediction of mine that hit the mark last night. Seriously, Taganrog had this coming. (But an A-60? That was admittedly unexpected.)
November 25, 2025 at 12:08 PM
I had hoped for my recent prediction of a Ukrainian attack against the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) in Novorossiysk to come true.
Instead it was a much older prediction of mine that hit the mark last night. Seriously, Taganrog had this coming. (But an A-60? That was admittedly unexpected.)
Instead it was a much older prediction of mine that hit the mark last night. Seriously, Taganrog had this coming. (But an A-60? That was admittedly unexpected.)
Yes, I have seen it too. We can consider the destruction of the A-60 confirmed now. The location is a clear fit and that distinctive 'humpback' (marked in yellow below) leaves no doubt.
November 25, 2025 at 8:37 AM
Yes, I have seen it too. We can consider the destruction of the A-60 confirmed now. The location is a clear fit and that distinctive 'humpback' (marked in yellow below) leaves no doubt.
Yet another prediction materialises. Ukraine hit the Shatura Power Station in Moscow Oblast hard last night.
It is close enough to Moscow to be problematic for Muscovites to lose, but too far to the east to defend.
The plant partly relies on US- and German-made equipment.
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
It is close enough to Moscow to be problematic for Muscovites to lose, but too far to the east to defend.
The plant partly relies on US- and German-made equipment.
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
November 23, 2025 at 12:40 PM
Yet another prediction materialises. Ukraine hit the Shatura Power Station in Moscow Oblast hard last night.
It is close enough to Moscow to be problematic for Muscovites to lose, but too far to the east to defend.
The plant partly relies on US- and German-made equipment.
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
It is close enough to Moscow to be problematic for Muscovites to lose, but too far to the east to defend.
The plant partly relies on US- and German-made equipment.
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
Yeah, but... the Principal Deputy Spokesperson of the US Department of State has just vehemently denied that it is *not* a US-drafted plan, after all.
The US is a clownhouse, run by clowns, elected by other clowns.
The US is a clownhouse, run by clowns, elected by other clowns.
November 23, 2025 at 1:39 AM
Yeah, but... the Principal Deputy Spokesperson of the US Department of State has just vehemently denied that it is *not* a US-drafted plan, after all.
The US is a clownhouse, run by clowns, elected by other clowns.
The US is a clownhouse, run by clowns, elected by other clowns.
Indeed. I still remember what a loss it was when Oryx Blog left. It is not entirely unproblematic to remain on Twitter, but the preservation of analytical and OSINT-related information is important.
This was my last post there, duly pinned:
This was my last post there, duly pinned:
November 22, 2025 at 9:24 PM
Indeed. I still remember what a loss it was when Oryx Blog left. It is not entirely unproblematic to remain on Twitter, but the preservation of analytical and OSINT-related information is important.
This was my last post there, duly pinned:
This was my last post there, duly pinned:
Bayterek District is in northwestern Kazakhstan, adjacent to Ozinsky District in Saratov Oblast, Russia.
The Telegram RUMINT seems to indicate that some Ukrainian drones may have strayed into Kazakh air space.
If true, they are probably headed for Orenburg, Salavat or Sterlitamak.
The Telegram RUMINT seems to indicate that some Ukrainian drones may have strayed into Kazakh air space.
If true, they are probably headed for Orenburg, Salavat or Sterlitamak.
November 15, 2025 at 11:28 PM
Bayterek District is in northwestern Kazakhstan, adjacent to Ozinsky District in Saratov Oblast, Russia.
The Telegram RUMINT seems to indicate that some Ukrainian drones may have strayed into Kazakh air space.
If true, they are probably headed for Orenburg, Salavat or Sterlitamak.
The Telegram RUMINT seems to indicate that some Ukrainian drones may have strayed into Kazakh air space.
If true, they are probably headed for Orenburg, Salavat or Sterlitamak.
That is - or rather was - the Sudzhukskaya Lighthouse, located right at the entrance to Novorossiysk Bay.
Although hardly a critical structure, it still used to help vessels safely navigate the Penayskiye Banks area.
ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A1%...
Although hardly a critical structure, it still used to help vessels safely navigate the Penayskiye Banks area.
ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A1%...
November 14, 2025 at 3:12 PM
That is - or rather was - the Sudzhukskaya Lighthouse, located right at the entrance to Novorossiysk Bay.
Although hardly a critical structure, it still used to help vessels safely navigate the Penayskiye Banks area.
ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A1%...
Although hardly a critical structure, it still used to help vessels safely navigate the Penayskiye Banks area.
ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A1%...
The Shekharis Oil Transshipment terminal is big, flammable and located just across the bay from Novorossiysk, adjacent to the naval base that currently hosts most of Russia's Black Sea Fleet (BSF).
November 13, 2025 at 11:22 PM
The Shekharis Oil Transshipment terminal is big, flammable and located just across the bay from Novorossiysk, adjacent to the naval base that currently hosts most of Russia's Black Sea Fleet (BSF).
The Burgas Lukoil plant provides around 80% of Bulgaria's fuel? Insane!
But the facility really is big. It is the white area labelled 'Neftohim' in the upper left corner of this map. Note the size compared to Burgas itself - the fourth-largest city in Bulgaria.
But the facility really is big. It is the white area labelled 'Neftohim' in the upper left corner of this map. Note the size compared to Burgas itself - the fourth-largest city in Bulgaria.
November 10, 2025 at 4:04 PM
The Burgas Lukoil plant provides around 80% of Bulgaria's fuel? Insane!
But the facility really is big. It is the white area labelled 'Neftohim' in the upper left corner of this map. Note the size compared to Burgas itself - the fourth-largest city in Bulgaria.
But the facility really is big. It is the white area labelled 'Neftohim' in the upper left corner of this map. Note the size compared to Burgas itself - the fourth-largest city in Bulgaria.
The hole appears to be on the Gorodskoy beach southeast of Tuapse Port. However, the explosions reported last night allegedly took place near Pier 167 on the northwestern side of the port.
bsky.app/profile/did:...
bsky.app/profile/did:...
November 10, 2025 at 1:04 PM
The hole appears to be on the Gorodskoy beach southeast of Tuapse Port. However, the explosions reported last night allegedly took place near Pier 167 on the northwestern side of the port.
bsky.app/profile/did:...
bsky.app/profile/did:...
There is currently a handful of ships in Tuapse, including the Liberian-flagged tanker 'Chai'. It was reportedly one of the vessels damaged in the previous Ukrainian attack against the port on 2 November.
November 9, 2025 at 11:17 PM
There is currently a handful of ships in Tuapse, including the Liberian-flagged tanker 'Chai'. It was reportedly one of the vessels damaged in the previous Ukrainian attack against the port on 2 November.
Killer orchids? Perhaps Russia has a lot of John Wyndham fans.
November 4, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Killer orchids? Perhaps Russia has a lot of John Wyndham fans.
The Black Sea Fleet has up to three of these ageing Grisha-class corvettes left in their inventory. The 'Suzdalets', the 'Muromets' and the 'Aleksandrovets' constitute the 149th Antisubmarine Ship Task Force of the 68th Coastal Defence Ship Brigade in Sevastopol.
November 4, 2025 at 9:43 AM
The Black Sea Fleet has up to three of these ageing Grisha-class corvettes left in their inventory. The 'Suzdalets', the 'Muromets' and the 'Aleksandrovets' constitute the 149th Antisubmarine Ship Task Force of the 68th Coastal Defence Ship Brigade in Sevastopol.
That is the eighth (8th!) Ukrainian attack against the Saratov Refinery since November 2024.
November 2, 2025 at 11:38 PM
That is the eighth (8th!) Ukrainian attack against the Saratov Refinery since November 2024.
This is potentially VERY important. Tuapse is one of the most important ports for Russian oil exports. Ukrainian naval drones attacked a different part of the port in September.
bsky.app/profile/spec...
bsky.app/profile/spec...
November 1, 2025 at 10:54 PM
This is potentially VERY important. Tuapse is one of the most important ports for Russian oil exports. Ukrainian naval drones attacked a different part of the port in September.
bsky.app/profile/spec...
bsky.app/profile/spec...
The Zheleznogorskaya 330 kV electrical substation is a juicy target, with connections to Kursk, Orel and Bryansk. I reckon that was what they were aiming for here.
November 1, 2025 at 9:20 PM
The Zheleznogorskaya 330 kV electrical substation is a juicy target, with connections to Kursk, Orel and Bryansk. I reckon that was what they were aiming for here.
Quick gut-feeling analysis: Moscow itself is well-defended, but perhaps they can hit some of the facilities to the east of the city like the power plants in Shatura and Elektrogorsk and the electrical substation in Noginsk. There are already reports about blackouts in Zhukovsky, southeast of Moscow.
October 31, 2025 at 10:18 PM
Quick gut-feeling analysis: Moscow itself is well-defended, but perhaps they can hit some of the facilities to the east of the city like the power plants in Shatura and Elektrogorsk and the electrical substation in Noginsk. There are already reports about blackouts in Zhukovsky, southeast of Moscow.
There is a 220kV electrical substation in central Zhukovsky, 3.5 km north of Zhukovsky International Airport. I would wager that it has been hit by Ukrainian drones.
October 31, 2025 at 9:56 PM
There is a 220kV electrical substation in central Zhukovsky, 3.5 km north of Zhukovsky International Airport. I would wager that it has been hit by Ukrainian drones.
Very impressive. Vladimirskaya is not far from Moscow and an important hub in the regional electrical grid.
October 31, 2025 at 9:38 AM
Very impressive. Vladimirskaya is not far from Moscow and an important hub in the regional electrical grid.
The NS Oyl depot is a medium-sized facility adjacent to the famous Druzhba pipeline. It will not be pleasant for the Russians to lose it given their ongoing fuel shortages.
October 28, 2025 at 10:15 PM
The NS Oyl depot is a medium-sized facility adjacent to the famous Druzhba pipeline. It will not be pleasant for the Russians to lose it given their ongoing fuel shortages.
The last Ka-52 went down just 15 days ago. Dropping like flies.
October 27, 2025 at 11:28 AM
The last Ka-52 went down just 15 days ago. Dropping like flies.
Having undergone bombardments, flooding and general terror, the Ostriv (Korabl) Microdistrict in Kherson has had a hard time since the full-scale war started. It is mainly an industrial area with a shipyard, but also contains a residential zone that is home to Kindergarten No. 82 and School No. 57.
October 24, 2025 at 9:27 AM
Having undergone bombardments, flooding and general terror, the Ostriv (Korabl) Microdistrict in Kherson has had a hard time since the full-scale war started. It is mainly an industrial area with a shipyard, but also contains a residential zone that is home to Kindergarten No. 82 and School No. 57.
"...due to a lack of funding". That reminds me about how the cost of a single Russian missile attack on Ukraine can be 16 times larger than the annual budget of the city of Tambov.
Russians are rich, but choose to be poor.
Russians are rich, but choose to be poor.
October 23, 2025 at 4:04 PM
"...due to a lack of funding". That reminds me about how the cost of a single Russian missile attack on Ukraine can be 16 times larger than the annual budget of the city of Tambov.
Russians are rich, but choose to be poor.
Russians are rich, but choose to be poor.