Michael Brill
@michaelpbrill.bsky.social
Ph.D. candidate in Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University | Non-Resident Fellow at USAFA Institute for Future Conflict | Visiting Lecturer in Political Science at Westfield State University | Former Wilson Center Global Fellow
Pinned
Michael Brill
@michaelpbrill.bsky.social
· Oct 10
Institute for Future Conflict (IFC)
www.ifc.usafa.edu
My latest piece for the Institute for Future Conflict at the United States Air Force Academy discusses the importance of Assad regime archives and efforts to preserve them. I draw some parallels with the aftermath of the 2003 Iraq War & toppling of Saddam's regime.
www.ifc.usafa.edu/articles/dig...
www.ifc.usafa.edu/articles/dig...
Reposted by Michael Brill
In 1990, a civilian plane landed in Kuwait while the Iraqi invasion was under way. 1843 spoke to the passengers who think they might, at last, know why this happened
They thought they were going on holiday. They ended up in Saddam’s clutches
When Iraq was invading Kuwait in 1990 a British Airways plane flew straight into the turmoil. Now its passengers might finally learn why
econ.st
January 17, 2026 at 9:30 AM
In 1990, a civilian plane landed in Kuwait while the Iraqi invasion was under way. 1843 spoke to the passengers who think they might, at last, know why this happened
Reposted by Michael Brill
CFR expert James Lindsay asked hundreds of historians what they considered to be the 10 best and worst foreign policy decisions in U.S. history.
Here is what they said:
Here is what they said:
The 10 Best and 10 Worst U.S. Foreign Policy Decisions
For two-and-a-half centuries, the United States has faced a challenging world. Some of its responses have made Americans proud. Others have not. We asked members of the Society for Historians of Ameri...
www.cfr.org
January 13, 2026 at 3:13 PM
CFR expert James Lindsay asked hundreds of historians what they considered to be the 10 best and worst foreign policy decisions in U.S. history.
Here is what they said:
Here is what they said:
"All of these measures were too cautious,too late, and ultimately not credible enough to shift Putin’s calculus."
-Alan He for the Institute for Future Conflict at the United States Air Force Academy
ifc.usafa.edu/articles/ukr...
-Alan He for the Institute for Future Conflict at the United States Air Force Academy
ifc.usafa.edu/articles/ukr...
Institute for Future Conflict (IFC)
ifc.usafa.edu
January 13, 2026 at 3:28 PM
"All of these measures were too cautious,too late, and ultimately not credible enough to shift Putin’s calculus."
-Alan He for the Institute for Future Conflict at the United States Air Force Academy
ifc.usafa.edu/articles/ukr...
-Alan He for the Institute for Future Conflict at the United States Air Force Academy
ifc.usafa.edu/articles/ukr...
"The Acting President of Venezuela... The conqueror of Osterlich... The future Emperor... of the World!"
time.com/7345445/trum...
time.com/7345445/trum...
Trump Refers to Himself as Venezuela’s ‘Acting President’
Trump shared a fake image of a Wikipedia profile.
time.com
January 12, 2026 at 6:10 PM
"The Acting President of Venezuela... The conqueror of Osterlich... The future Emperor... of the World!"
time.com/7345445/trum...
time.com/7345445/trum...
"But even as we partner with Iraq, the AUMFs have remained on the books, allowing a president to justify military action in Iraq without coming to Congress to seek legal authorization." @kaine.senate.gov & Senator Todd Young (R-Indiana)
readthereporter.com/formally-end...
readthereporter.com/formally-end...
Formally ending Iraq wars is a victory for the American people
readthereporter.com
January 12, 2026 at 2:42 PM
"But even as we partner with Iraq, the AUMFs have remained on the books, allowing a president to justify military action in Iraq without coming to Congress to seek legal authorization." @kaine.senate.gov & Senator Todd Young (R-Indiana)
readthereporter.com/formally-end...
readthereporter.com/formally-end...
Reposted by Michael Brill
Huge news: after many years, my bipartisan bill with Senator Todd Young to repeal the 1991 and 2002 Authorizations for Use of Military Force against Iraq was signed into law. This is a historic win for Americans and allows us to close the book on this forever war.
December 19, 2025 at 5:46 PM
Huge news: after many years, my bipartisan bill with Senator Todd Young to repeal the 1991 and 2002 Authorizations for Use of Military Force against Iraq was signed into law. This is a historic win for Americans and allows us to close the book on this forever war.
Reposted by Michael Brill
Also:
"One research firm estimated that the Venezuelan government and oil companies would need to invest more than $180bn over a decade to restore the country’s production back to its levels in the late 1990s, when it pumped about 3m barrels a day. Today, Venezuela produces a third of that output."
"One research firm estimated that the Venezuelan government and oil companies would need to invest more than $180bn over a decade to restore the country’s production back to its levels in the late 1990s, when it pumped about 3m barrels a day. Today, Venezuela produces a third of that output."
"It took until 2009, six years after the US invasion, for Iraq to provide security guarantees & attract investment from multinational oil companies that brought production levels back to those under Saddam’s rule." @mbazzi.bsky.social for @theguardian.com
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Trump is repeating mistakes of Iraq in Venezuela | Mohamad Bazzi
As it did in 2003, the US is underestimating the potential for instability as Trump resurrects one of the Iraq war’s biggest myths
www.theguardian.com
January 12, 2026 at 2:29 PM
Also:
"One research firm estimated that the Venezuelan government and oil companies would need to invest more than $180bn over a decade to restore the country’s production back to its levels in the late 1990s, when it pumped about 3m barrels a day. Today, Venezuela produces a third of that output."
"One research firm estimated that the Venezuelan government and oil companies would need to invest more than $180bn over a decade to restore the country’s production back to its levels in the late 1990s, when it pumped about 3m barrels a day. Today, Venezuela produces a third of that output."
"The Dassault aircraft apparently impressed former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, whose air force had been badly battered by the eight-year Iran-Iraq War & nearly demolished during the ensuing Gulf War." @petersuciu.bsky.social for The National Interest
nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/fr...
nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/fr...
France's Omnirole Rafale Fighter Could Soon Fly over Iraq
Iraq has long been fascinated by the Dassault Rafale fighter jet—with interest in operating the warplane dating back to the rule of longtime dictator Saddam Hussein.
nationalinterest.org
January 12, 2026 at 2:27 PM
"The Dassault aircraft apparently impressed former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, whose air force had been badly battered by the eight-year Iran-Iraq War & nearly demolished during the ensuing Gulf War." @petersuciu.bsky.social for The National Interest
nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/fr...
nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/fr...
"It took until 2009, six years after the US invasion, for Iraq to provide security guarantees & attract investment from multinational oil companies that brought production levels back to those under Saddam’s rule." @mbazzi.bsky.social for @theguardian.com
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Trump is repeating mistakes of Iraq in Venezuela | Mohamad Bazzi
As it did in 2003, the US is underestimating the potential for instability as Trump resurrects one of the Iraq war’s biggest myths
www.theguardian.com
January 12, 2026 at 2:25 PM
"It took until 2009, six years after the US invasion, for Iraq to provide security guarantees & attract investment from multinational oil companies that brought production levels back to those under Saddam’s rule." @mbazzi.bsky.social for @theguardian.com
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Reposted by Michael Brill
Always great to see it out in the wild! #aha @academic.oup.com
January 9, 2026 at 11:40 PM
Always great to see it out in the wild! #aha @academic.oup.com
"However, neither Iraq nor Panama offers a perfect match to the present situation. The use of history to shed light on current events can be dangerously misleading. The parallels are never exactly parallel." @joshschwartz.bsky.social & Paul Lendway
www.post-gazette.com/opinion/insi...
www.post-gazette.com/opinion/insi...
Joshua Schwartz and Paul Lendway: Is Venezuela Iraq or Panama? Failure or success?
The Trump administration’s audacious military action against Venezuela has split commentators into two camps, depending on how they read the situation...
www.post-gazette.com
January 11, 2026 at 7:16 PM
"However, neither Iraq nor Panama offers a perfect match to the present situation. The use of history to shed light on current events can be dangerously misleading. The parallels are never exactly parallel." @joshschwartz.bsky.social & Paul Lendway
www.post-gazette.com/opinion/insi...
www.post-gazette.com/opinion/insi...
Reposted by Michael Brill
What if Sri Lanka’s Muslim past is best read through monsoon-route pilgrims & merchants—not empires? What shifts when Arabic, Tamil, Malay, Ottoman, Urdu, Dhivehi, and Sinhala sources meet for the first time in "Serendipitous Translations"?👂🏽to Nile Green: newbooksnetwork.com/serendipitou...
January 10, 2026 at 4:55 AM
What if Sri Lanka’s Muslim past is best read through monsoon-route pilgrims & merchants—not empires? What shifts when Arabic, Tamil, Malay, Ottoman, Urdu, Dhivehi, and Sinhala sources meet for the first time in "Serendipitous Translations"?👂🏽to Nile Green: newbooksnetwork.com/serendipitou...
"First, American presidents have recycled these kinds of arguments for going to war for as long as I’ve been alive – these are not particular to the conflict that began in 2003. A threat to Americans? Alleged terrorism? We’ve heard this before, many times."
www.usnews.com/news/u-s-new...
www.usnews.com/news/u-s-new...
www.usnews.com
January 9, 2026 at 2:37 PM
"First, American presidents have recycled these kinds of arguments for going to war for as long as I’ve been alive – these are not particular to the conflict that began in 2003. A threat to Americans? Alleged terrorism? We’ve heard this before, many times."
www.usnews.com/news/u-s-new...
www.usnews.com/news/u-s-new...
"Since last March, teams have visited 19 locations, four of which were previously declared. They also conducted interviews with former chemical weapons experts and collected six samples as well as over 6,000 documents."
news.un.org/en/story/202...
news.un.org/en/story/202...
Syria signals renewed cooperation on chemical weapons destruction
Progress continues to be made towards eliminating remnants of the chemical weapons programme in Syria that was developed under the Assad regime, the UN Security Council heard on Thursday.
news.un.org
January 9, 2026 at 2:06 PM
"Since last March, teams have visited 19 locations, four of which were previously declared. They also conducted interviews with former chemical weapons experts and collected six samples as well as over 6,000 documents."
news.un.org/en/story/202...
news.un.org/en/story/202...
Oscar Wyatt would have loved this scheme. Meet Oil-for-Food Redux, where instead of Saddam exploiting the program to strengthen his regime, you can have both the Venezuelan and US governments as joint-drivers of corruption.
Exclusive: The Trump administration is planning to dominate Venezuela’s oil industry for years to come, and the president has told aides he believes his efforts could help lower oil prices to $50 a barrel.
Exclusive | Trump Team Works Up Sweeping Plan to Control Venezuelan Oil for Years to Come
The U.S. president believes the effort could lower oil prices to his target price of $50 a barrel.
on.wsj.com
January 8, 2026 at 7:46 PM
Oscar Wyatt would have loved this scheme. Meet Oil-for-Food Redux, where instead of Saddam exploiting the program to strengthen his regime, you can have both the Venezuelan and US governments as joint-drivers of corruption.
"War games simulations run previously by Washington on what could happen following Mr. Maduro’s ouster indicate the chances for low-intensity civil conflict are substantial." -Chris Arsenault for @theglobeandmail.com
www.theglobeandmail.com/business/com...
www.theglobeandmail.com/business/com...
Opinion: Don’t expect a big gush of Venezuelan oil onto world markets any time soon
Trump expects oil riches will soon start flowing to U.S. companies. He’s in for a rude awakening
www.theglobeandmail.com
January 8, 2026 at 3:25 PM
"War games simulations run previously by Washington on what could happen following Mr. Maduro’s ouster indicate the chances for low-intensity civil conflict are substantial." -Chris Arsenault for @theglobeandmail.com
www.theglobeandmail.com/business/com...
www.theglobeandmail.com/business/com...
"Drawing from previously secret Israeli documents, they can prove the central role played by the Israeli secret service (Mossad) in Ben Barka's assassination." @qantarade.bsky.social
qantara.de/en/article/m...
qantara.de/en/article/m...
The murder of Ben Barka: New revelations from Israel's archives | Qantara.de
The book "L'Affaire Ben Barka" reveals new details about the assassination of Moroccan opposition leader Mehdi Ben Barka. Long-secret Israeli documents show the role of Mossad in one of the 20th centu...
qantara.de
January 8, 2026 at 3:23 PM
"Drawing from previously secret Israeli documents, they can prove the central role played by the Israeli secret service (Mossad) in Ben Barka's assassination." @qantarade.bsky.social
qantara.de/en/article/m...
qantara.de/en/article/m...
"Trump is already repeating the fundamental error that doomed the US effort to remake Iraq. Just like Bush, he has failed to grasp that removing a dictator is not enough to overcome the decades-long legacy of dictatorship." @ccaryl.bsky.social @foreignpolicy.com
foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/06/t...
foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/06/t...
Donald Trump Is Channeling George W. Bush
Iraq showed that removing a dictator isn’t the same thing as overcoming a dictatorship.
foreignpolicy.com
January 7, 2026 at 2:54 PM
"Trump is already repeating the fundamental error that doomed the US effort to remake Iraq. Just like Bush, he has failed to grasp that removing a dictator is not enough to overcome the decades-long legacy of dictatorship." @ccaryl.bsky.social @foreignpolicy.com
foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/06/t...
foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/06/t...
Reposted by Michael Brill
This is my first deliberately academic read of 2026, and so far my thought is to tell students researching related topics that this is their essential orientation #Iraq
I had a great time speaking with Miranda Melcher @newbooksnetwork.bsky.social about “The Iraq Wars: A Very Short Introduction.” @academic.oup.com
newbooksnetwork.com/the-iraq-wars
newbooksnetwork.com/the-iraq-wars
January 5, 2026 at 7:36 PM
This is my first deliberately academic read of 2026, and so far my thought is to tell students researching related topics that this is their essential orientation #Iraq
Reposted by Michael Brill
With the survival of Nicolas Maduro’s regime now uncertain, Iran and Hezbollah have much to lose in Caracas.
Iran’s Forward-Operating Base in the West
With the survival of Nicolas Maduro’s regime now uncertain, Iran and Hezbollah have much to lose in Caracas.
quillette.com
January 6, 2026 at 10:17 AM
With the survival of Nicolas Maduro’s regime now uncertain, Iran and Hezbollah have much to lose in Caracas.
Reposted by Michael Brill
Maduro’s arrest revives a familiar US fantasy: that removing a strongman brings stability. From Iraq to Afghanistan, history suggests otherwise, write Ibrahim al-Marashi and Tanya Goudsouzian ⬇️
With Maduro abduction US addiction to regime change is now farce
Maduro’s arrest revives a familiar US fantasy: that removing a strongman brings stability. From Iraq to Afghanistan, history suggests otherwise.
www.newarab.com
January 6, 2026 at 12:33 PM
Maduro’s arrest revives a familiar US fantasy: that removing a strongman brings stability. From Iraq to Afghanistan, history suggests otherwise, write Ibrahim al-Marashi and Tanya Goudsouzian ⬇️
Reposted by Michael Brill
Top 5 Mistakes Bush made in Iraq that Trump is making in Venezuela
Top 5 Mistakes Bush made in Iraq that Trump is making in Venezuela
The Bush administration attacked Iraq in 2003 without any foundation in international law.
dlvr.it
January 4, 2026 at 7:15 AM
Top 5 Mistakes Bush made in Iraq that Trump is making in Venezuela
"That Kamal Jumblatt twice referred, in admiration, to the Biafra scenario is terrifying, especially since he also praised the 1860 massacres, saying people 'rested' afterward." -Hicham Bou Nassif
syriacpress.com/blog/2026/01...
syriacpress.com/blog/2026/01...
The Fatal Encounter: Jumblatt / Assad (Part Two) - SyriacPress
By Hicham Bou Nassif | Weinberg Associate Professor of International Relations and the Middle East and George R. Roberts Fellow at Claremont McKenna College-California Did Kamal Jumblatt seek the anni...
syriacpress.com
January 5, 2026 at 3:01 PM
"That Kamal Jumblatt twice referred, in admiration, to the Biafra scenario is terrifying, especially since he also praised the 1860 massacres, saying people 'rested' afterward." -Hicham Bou Nassif
syriacpress.com/blog/2026/01...
syriacpress.com/blog/2026/01...
Reposted by Michael Brill
Intervention in Venezuela epitomizes U.S. way of war since 9/11: stunningly effective at the tactical and operational levels, dangerously divorced from the achievement of strategic and political outcomes that actually make U.S. more secure.
January 4, 2026 at 4:35 PM
Intervention in Venezuela epitomizes U.S. way of war since 9/11: stunningly effective at the tactical and operational levels, dangerously divorced from the achievement of strategic and political outcomes that actually make U.S. more secure.
US oil companies were wary of entering Iraq even with 100,000+ US troops occupying the country, leaving China to line up major oil contracts in 2008. There is no H.R. McMaster left in the room to explain to Trump that the US doesn't have state oil companies. @wsj.com
www.wsj.com/business/ene...
www.wsj.com/business/ene...
Trump Wants to Unlock Venezuela’s Oil Reserves. A Huge Challenge Awaits.
The president wants to put Venezuela’s viscous crude into play. The problem is the world doesn’t have much appetite for more oil.
www.wsj.com
January 4, 2026 at 11:05 PM
US oil companies were wary of entering Iraq even with 100,000+ US troops occupying the country, leaving China to line up major oil contracts in 2008. There is no H.R. McMaster left in the room to explain to Trump that the US doesn't have state oil companies. @wsj.com
www.wsj.com/business/ene...
www.wsj.com/business/ene...