Council on Foreign Relations
@cfr.org
🌏 CFR is a resource for foreign policy news and analysis.
CFR takes no institutional positions on policy. Follows, reposts, likes ≠ endorsements.
✉️ Subscribe to our newsletters: http://cfr.org/newsletters
CFR takes no institutional positions on policy. Follows, reposts, likes ≠ endorsements.
✉️ Subscribe to our newsletters: http://cfr.org/newsletters
"Autocrats have become more skilled in their intimidation and even harm of exiled dissidents and critics living abroad. Many countries where this repression is happening have weakened defenses against it or tolerated it because of economic ties to autocratic powers," argues Josh Kurlantzick.
Transnational Repression Grew in 2025--and It Will Only Get Worse
Autocrats have become more skilled in their intimidation and even harm of exiled dissidents and critics living abroad. Many countries where this repression is happening have weakened defenses against...
www.cfr.org
December 25, 2025 at 3:50 PM
"Autocrats have become more skilled in their intimidation and even harm of exiled dissidents and critics living abroad. Many countries where this repression is happening have weakened defenses against it or tolerated it because of economic ties to autocratic powers," argues Josh Kurlantzick.
"As 2025 winds down, it’s a good time to look back, step back, and try to see what bigger themes and lessons might be drawn from the first year of President Donald Trump’s second term," writes CFR President Michael Froman.
A Look Back at 2025: The Year in Foreign Policy
CFR President Michael Froman analyzes President Donald Trump's busy year of diplomacy and action, which perhaps forged a new brand of U.S. internationalism.
www.cfr.org
December 24, 2025 at 5:46 PM
"As 2025 winds down, it’s a good time to look back, step back, and try to see what bigger themes and lessons might be drawn from the first year of President Donald Trump’s second term," writes CFR President Michael Froman.
"The administration’s preoccupation with ideologically manufactured faux threats leaves America more vulnerable to the very real threat of Islamist militant terrorism," argues @maxboot.bsky.social.
Opinion | Trump is losing sight of America’s real terrorist threat
ISIS and al-Qaeda thrive as Trump recklessly reallocates scarce security resources.
www.washingtonpost.com
December 23, 2025 at 8:05 PM
"The administration’s preoccupation with ideologically manufactured faux threats leaves America more vulnerable to the very real threat of Islamist militant terrorism," argues @maxboot.bsky.social.
Every year, the Preventive Priorities Survey asks experts to rank thirty conflict scenarios in terms of likelihood and potential impact.
This year’s results paint a picture of a more violent and dangerous world in 2026:
This year’s results paint a picture of a more violent and dangerous world in 2026:
Five Takeaways From CFR's 2026 Conflict Risk Assessment
Every year, the Preventive Priorities Survey asks experts to rank thirty conflict scenarios in terms of likelihood and potential impact. This year's results paint a picture of a more violent and dang...
www.cfr.org
December 22, 2025 at 10:02 PM
Every year, the Preventive Priorities Survey asks experts to rank thirty conflict scenarios in terms of likelihood and potential impact.
This year’s results paint a picture of a more violent and dangerous world in 2026:
This year’s results paint a picture of a more violent and dangerous world in 2026:
The Trump administration's indefinite refugee ban and historically low annual admissions ceiling come as the number of refugees worldwide remains high.
Here are 4 charts that put Trump's refugee policy into perspective ⬇️
Here are 4 charts that put Trump's refugee policy into perspective ⬇️
Four Charts Putting Trump’s Refugee Policy Into Perspective
The Trump administration’s indefinite refugee ban and historically low annual admissions ceiling come as the number of refugees worldwide remains high.
on.cfr.org
December 22, 2025 at 7:53 PM
The Trump administration's indefinite refugee ban and historically low annual admissions ceiling come as the number of refugees worldwide remains high.
Here are 4 charts that put Trump's refugee policy into perspective ⬇️
Here are 4 charts that put Trump's refugee policy into perspective ⬇️
🎧 On this episode of the Why It Matters podcast, conflict prevention expert Paul Stares sits down with Gabrielle Sierra to discuss the concerns of 2026, the U.S. role in mitigating global conflict, and the new 2026 Preventive Priorities Survey.
PODCAST | Why It Matters: The Risk Report for 2026
As the second Trump administration reorders U.S. foreign policy priorities, important questions remain about the country's role in mitigating global conflict. In this episode, experts discuss CFR's 2026 Preventive Priorities Survey and the foreign polic...
www.cfr.org
December 22, 2025 at 6:07 PM
🎧 On this episode of the Why It Matters podcast, conflict prevention expert Paul Stares sits down with Gabrielle Sierra to discuss the concerns of 2026, the U.S. role in mitigating global conflict, and the new 2026 Preventive Priorities Survey.
"Will the White House learn from its counterproductive actions in Asia in 2025? It does not seem likely," writes Southeast Asia expert Josh Kurlantzick.
The White House Transformed Asia in 2025: Expect Much More in 2026
In 2025, the second administration of U.S. President Donald Trump dramatically changed the trajectory of U.S. engagement with Asia through its tariff-heavy approach, a trend that seems set to continu...
www.cfr.org
December 22, 2025 at 1:05 PM
"Will the White House learn from its counterproductive actions in Asia in 2025? It does not seem likely," writes Southeast Asia expert Josh Kurlantzick.
Reversing the United States’ slide into authoritarianism will require democracy’s defenders to recognize the twin dangers of complacency and fatalism, write Steven Levitsky, Lucan A. Way, and Daniel Ziblatt.
The Price of American Authoritarianism
What can reverse democratic decline?
www.foreignaffairs.com
December 21, 2025 at 6:38 PM
Reversing the United States’ slide into authoritarianism will require democracy’s defenders to recognize the twin dangers of complacency and fatalism, write Steven Levitsky, Lucan A. Way, and Daniel Ziblatt.
Chinese growth has relied on exports to an unprecedented extent in 2024 and 2025, argues economics expert Brad Setser.
Should that continue, or is it time to pivot? Read the full analysis:
Should that continue, or is it time to pivot? Read the full analysis:
Can China Continue to Export its Way Out of its Property Slump?
Chinese growth has relied on exports to an unprecedented extent in 2024 and 2025? Should that continue, or is it time to pivot?
www.cfr.org
December 21, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Chinese growth has relied on exports to an unprecedented extent in 2024 and 2025, argues economics expert Brad Setser.
Should that continue, or is it time to pivot? Read the full analysis:
Should that continue, or is it time to pivot? Read the full analysis:
"The pressure building in Senegal has exposed a rift between Faye and Sonko and led to widespread suspicion and finger-pointing as Senegalese try to determine who was responsible, or at least complicit, in the economic malpractice that has tanked the country’s credit rating," writes Michelle Gavin.
Debt Drives a Wedge in Senegal
Frustrations rise as newly-public debt threatens PASTEF's agenda and creates a rift between its two leaders.
www.cfr.org
December 20, 2025 at 9:35 PM
"The pressure building in Senegal has exposed a rift between Faye and Sonko and led to widespread suspicion and finger-pointing as Senegalese try to determine who was responsible, or at least complicit, in the economic malpractice that has tanked the country’s credit rating," writes Michelle Gavin.
Major global forums are scheduled next year that will cover diverse topics such as climate change, trade, and security. But the Trump administration, could unsettle the way such gatherings are held, write Ashley Ray and Alexander Sarchet.
Here are the summits to watch in 2026:
Here are the summits to watch in 2026:
Global Summits to Watch in 2026: Bracing for a New Global (Dis)order?
Major global forums are scheduled in 2026 that will cover diverse topics including climate change, trade, and security. But the Donald Trump administration, as it continues to overhaul U.S. foreign p...
www.cfr.org
December 20, 2025 at 6:07 PM
Major global forums are scheduled next year that will cover diverse topics such as climate change, trade, and security. But the Trump administration, could unsettle the way such gatherings are held, write Ashley Ray and Alexander Sarchet.
Here are the summits to watch in 2026:
Here are the summits to watch in 2026:
Washington must shore up its traditional credibility in the world and use it to steer China along a less hostile path, presenting Beijing with dilemmas rather than ultimatums and seeking to shape outcomes over time rather than dictate them immediately, writes Zongyuan Zoe Liu.
China's Long Economic War
How Beijing builds leverage for indefinite competition.
www.foreignaffairs.com
December 20, 2025 at 3:50 PM
Washington must shore up its traditional credibility in the world and use it to steer China along a less hostile path, presenting Beijing with dilemmas rather than ultimatums and seeking to shape outcomes over time rather than dictate them immediately, writes Zongyuan Zoe Liu.
"Europe must take steps to restore agency where it still can. Rather than wait it out until January 2029, when magical thinking assumes the current transatlantic nightmare will come to an end, the EU needs to stop groveling and build greater sovereignty," write Matthias Matthijs and Nathalie Tocci.
How Europe Lost
Can the continent escape its Trump trap?
www.foreignaffairs.com
December 19, 2025 at 8:52 PM
"Europe must take steps to restore agency where it still can. Rather than wait it out until January 2029, when magical thinking assumes the current transatlantic nightmare will come to an end, the EU needs to stop groveling and build greater sovereignty," write Matthias Matthijs and Nathalie Tocci.
"Cold War threats led to the United States’ current approach to nuclear weapons policies, guidance, and capabilities. Today’s risks—from AI to an expanding Chinese arsenal—will guide U.S. policy in the coming decades," writes nuclear policy expert Erin Dumbacher.
Who Can Start a Nuclear War? Inside U.S. Launch Authority and Reform
The U.S. president can order a nuclear launch without consulting anyone, including Congress, and U.S. nuclear weapons have been prepared to launch within minutes since the Cold War. While reforms to ...
www.cfr.org
December 19, 2025 at 3:46 PM
"Cold War threats led to the United States’ current approach to nuclear weapons policies, guidance, and capabilities. Today’s risks—from AI to an expanding Chinese arsenal—will guide U.S. policy in the coming decades," writes nuclear policy expert Erin Dumbacher.
The Trump administration’s trade strategy has created a fiscal cushion but has also introduced significant uncertainty to the U.S. Treasury market, write economics expert Rebecca Patterson and Ishaan Thakker.
Trade, Tariffs, and Treasuries: The Hidden Cost of Trump's Protectionism
While the Treasury market is likely to remain stable next year, longer-term trade and fiscal trends--such as additional tariffs, questionable foreign demand, as well as rising deficits--risk pushing yi...
www.cfr.org
December 19, 2025 at 1:46 PM
The Trump administration’s trade strategy has created a fiscal cushion but has also introduced significant uncertainty to the U.S. Treasury market, write economics expert Rebecca Patterson and Ishaan Thakker.
"The continent needs to step up now to strengthen its defenses and regain its competitiveness. Otherwise, Europe risks reinforcing the perception that it can be divided and managed rather than treated as a global economic and strategic player," writes Douglas Rediker and Heidi Crebo-Rediker.
Europe Is Missing Its Moment
It's time to finally reform--or risk irrelevance.
www.foreignaffairs.com
December 18, 2025 at 10:10 PM
"The continent needs to step up now to strengthen its defenses and regain its competitiveness. Otherwise, Europe risks reinforcing the perception that it can be divided and managed rather than treated as a global economic and strategic player," writes Douglas Rediker and Heidi Crebo-Rediker.
Many middle power countries "gain from international stability and the observance of the rule of law and long-established norms, and see great power overreach as disruptive and threatening to an orderly system in which they can plan and thrive," writes global governance expert Esther Brimmer.
The State of Global Governance: Middle Powers and the Search for Stability
The rise of middle powers in recent decades has offered a counterweight to the strain created by the United States, China, and Russia in international affairs. But although middle powers challenge gr...
www.cfr.org
December 18, 2025 at 8:46 PM
Many middle power countries "gain from international stability and the observance of the rule of law and long-established norms, and see great power overreach as disruptive and threatening to an orderly system in which they can plan and thrive," writes global governance expert Esther Brimmer.
The U.S. military has launched a campaign that it says targets illegal drug trafficking in the Caribbean, but some experts say the operation’s broader agenda could include regime change in Venezuela.
Here's what to know:
Here's what to know:
Operation Southern Spear: The U.S. Military Campaign Targeting Venezuela
The U.S. military has launched a campaign that it says targets illegal drug trafficking in the Caribbean, but experts say the operation's broader agenda could include regime change in Venezuela.
www.cfr.org
December 18, 2025 at 2:55 PM
The U.S. military has launched a campaign that it says targets illegal drug trafficking in the Caribbean, but some experts say the operation’s broader agenda could include regime change in Venezuela.
Here's what to know:
Here's what to know:
What are U.S. foreign policy experts worried about in 2026? Here are the emerging and intensifying conflicts they’re watching next year, according to our annual survey. https://www.cfr.org/report/conflicts-watch-2026?utm_campaign=pps-2026&utm_medium=social_owned&utm_source=bs
Conflicts to Watch in 2026 | Council on Foreign Relations
About the Preventive Priorities Survey For the past eighteen years, the Center for Preventive Action (CPA) has surveyed American foreign policy experts to assess the risk posed to U.S. national intere...
www.cfr.org
December 18, 2025 at 2:13 PM
What are U.S. foreign policy experts worried about in 2026? Here are the emerging and intensifying conflicts they’re watching next year, according to our annual survey. https://www.cfr.org/report/conflicts-watch-2026?utm_campaign=pps-2026&utm_medium=social_owned&utm_source=bs
"Prior terrorism classifications have been rendered obsolete by a fast-moving, freewheeling, and spectacularly cruel online community that glorifies violence and targets a broad spectrum of victims, including young children," argues @jacobware.bsky.social.
A Terrorism of Vengeance
Understanding incels, school shooters, and the new category of terrorism, “nihilistic violent extremism.”
www.lawfaremedia.org
December 17, 2025 at 9:12 PM
"Prior terrorism classifications have been rendered obsolete by a fast-moving, freewheeling, and spectacularly cruel online community that glorifies violence and targets a broad spectrum of victims, including young children," argues @jacobware.bsky.social.
The White House announced that it would expand its U.S. travel ban to include Burkina Faso, Laos, Mali, Niger, Sierra Leone, South Sudan, and Syria.
15 other countries were added to the list of countries that now face partial travel restrictions.
15 other countries were added to the list of countries that now face partial travel restrictions.
A Guide to the Countries on Trump’s 2025 Travel Ban List
The White House said that it had expanded the travel ban to include Burkina Faso, Laos, Mali, Niger, Sierra Leone, South Sudan, and Syria. Fifteen other countries were added to the list of countries …
on.cfr.org
December 17, 2025 at 5:26 PM
The White House announced that it would expand its U.S. travel ban to include Burkina Faso, Laos, Mali, Niger, Sierra Leone, South Sudan, and Syria.
15 other countries were added to the list of countries that now face partial travel restrictions.
15 other countries were added to the list of countries that now face partial travel restrictions.
Numerous countries will hold elections in 2026. Here are ten to watch for, according to U.S. foreign policy expert James Lindsay.
www.cfr.org
December 17, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Numerous countries will hold elections in 2026. Here are ten to watch for, according to U.S. foreign policy expert James Lindsay.
Disputes between China and its neighbors, including the Philippines and Vietnam, in the South China Sea have intensified in recent decades.
Trace the history of China's maritime disputes:
Trace the history of China's maritime disputes:
www.cfr.org
December 17, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Disputes between China and its neighbors, including the Philippines and Vietnam, in the South China Sea have intensified in recent decades.
Trace the history of China's maritime disputes:
Trace the history of China's maritime disputes:
The January/February 2026 issue of Foreign Affairs is now available.
The latest issue includes examinations of the global rise of authoritarianism, analysis of China's economic future, and evaluations of the strength of the United States' alliances.
Start reading: on.cfr.org/3YB5HYM
The latest issue includes examinations of the global rise of authoritarianism, analysis of China's economic future, and evaluations of the strength of the United States' alliances.
Start reading: on.cfr.org/3YB5HYM
December 16, 2025 at 9:19 PM
The January/February 2026 issue of Foreign Affairs is now available.
The latest issue includes examinations of the global rise of authoritarianism, analysis of China's economic future, and evaluations of the strength of the United States' alliances.
Start reading: on.cfr.org/3YB5HYM
The latest issue includes examinations of the global rise of authoritarianism, analysis of China's economic future, and evaluations of the strength of the United States' alliances.
Start reading: on.cfr.org/3YB5HYM
The border conflict with Cambodia could change electoral politics in Thailand, as voters could rally around the flag and abandon—at least temporarily—some of their support for economic and military reforms, argues Southeast Asia expert Josh Kurlantzick.
Thailand Calls a Snap Election During a Border War: What It All Means
The border conflict with Cambodia could change electoral politics in Thailand, as voters could rally around the flag and abandon--at least temporarily--some of their support for economic and military r...
www.cfr.org
December 16, 2025 at 9:18 PM
The border conflict with Cambodia could change electoral politics in Thailand, as voters could rally around the flag and abandon—at least temporarily—some of their support for economic and military reforms, argues Southeast Asia expert Josh Kurlantzick.