Environmental science
52%
Geography
18%
Pinned
ASCMO - Scheduled SIs
www.advances-statistical-climatology-meteorology-oceanography.net
Special issue on Artificial intelligence and machine learning in climate & weather science in Advances in Statistical Climatology Meteorology & Oceanography. ML/AI in atmosphere, ocean & hydrological sciences welcomed. www.advances-statistical-climatology-meteorology-oceanography.net/articles/sch...
"while econometric methods remain valuable for identifying current sensitivities to climate variability, they may be less reliable for long-term projection." But they provide insight, and can guide policy, even if not market investments. Wish I could be there...
Assessing the performance of solar radiation management geoengineering simulations - Frontiers of Earth Science
Offsetting the global warming caused by anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases by deliberate injection of aerosols into the stratosphere is the most studied of solar radiation managem...
link.springer.com
7. "SRM could exacerbate rather than ameliorate some regional changes in climate..." Seems like an understatement to me. All schemes that I examined produced seasonal drought somewhere, especially in the south. And bulk tropical cyclone metrics are highly uncertain. link.springer.com/article/10.1...
The growing inadequacy of an open-ended Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale in a warming world | PNAS
Global warming increases available sensible and latent heat energy, increasing the
thermodynamic potential wind intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs...
www.pnas.org
We discussed this a bit in our original article. Most would recognize that the SS scale is a poor warning system as it is only wind based and most deaths are due to either fresh or salt water. NHC maps/summaries are infinitely better warnings. See our last paragraph. www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1...
The growing inadequacy of an open-ended Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale in a warming world | PNAS
Global warming increases available sensible and latent heat energy, increasing the
thermodynamic potential wind intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs...
www.pnas.org
2of2 But just a discussion of cat6 raises awareness that storms are now worse than ever because of AGW. Which was the intent of our article. And for that it has served our purpose. www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1...
1of2 My thinking hasn't changed much since Jim Kossin & wrote the PNAS article. The SS scale is very inadequate for communicating imminent danger. But it is not (probably never) going away. A single number can't convey this & we encourage folks to use NHC maps instead or listen to local TV weather.
I have been to both many times. Some rooms at EGU can be a lot smaller, so if there is a session you really want to go to, I advise going early to get a seat.
Assessing the performance of solar radiation management geoengineering simulations - Frontiers of Earth Science
Offsetting the global warming caused by anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases by deliberate injection of aerosols into the stratosphere is the most studied of solar radiation management geoengineering schemes. The long-term success or failure of such schemes in achieving their stated goals is assessed by comparing simulated geoengineered temperature, precipitation and tropical cyclones metrics to equivalent fields in the simulated targeted climate simulations. Results using available data sets from three single model stabilized climate target experiments and three multimodel climate change reduction experiments are presented and compared against a measure of internal variability. While all but one experimental scheme is successful in achieving their targeted global mean annual surface temperature, their success at regional scales varies significantly and is often larger than the internal variability metric used here.
link.springer.com
New paper: Assessing the performance of solar radiation management geoengineering simulations at link.springer.com/article/10.1...
The attack on @frediotto.bsky.social was seeded years ago by Roger Pielke Jr, who started arguing that this table from a recent @ipcc.bsky.social report proved that climate science cannot attribute extreme weather to climate change.
But Roger is of course lying. And we know this for 2 reasons.
🧵
But Roger is of course lying. And we know this for 2 reasons.
🧵
IPCC
@ipcc.bsky.social
· Sep 17
📣 PRESS RELEASE
Registration for experts interested in serving as Expert Reviewers and providing scientific comments on the First Order Draft of the Special Report on Climate Change and Cities is now open!
Registration closes 30 Nov 2025.
Read more 🔗 www.ipcc.ch/2025/09/17/p...
Registration for experts interested in serving as Expert Reviewers and providing scientific comments on the First Order Draft of the Special Report on Climate Change and Cities is now open!
Registration closes 30 Nov 2025.
Read more 🔗 www.ipcc.ch/2025/09/17/p...
It would be interesting to calculate the partitioning of cooling by upwelling compared to energy converted to storm energy.
A Global Increase in Nearshore Tropical Cyclone Intensification
Tropical cyclone (TC) intensification rates have increased in near coastal regions over the 42-year period 1979-2020 Increases in relative humidity along with decreases in vertical wind shear are...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Some more literature. Risk is increased near shore which is not good. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
Thanks. And btw, in our cat 6 paper, we do not see substantial risk in the open Atlantic.
Does eyewall replacement cause the expansion in size? Or is it some other physical mechanism like available energy?
Jeff, what is the mechanism causing this expansion in physical size?
I am an executive editor for a journal. I would ask now. It may be that they are having trouble finding a suitable AE. Or it may have slipped between the cracks. In any event, the editor should let you know.
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
And to consider the change in risk of near shore intense storms agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
Increased U.S. coastal hurricane risk under climate change
Future ocean warming in eastern tropical Pacific will enhance US hurricane risk through changes in steering flow and wind shear.
www.science.org
You may not want to assume that the risk of landfall remains constant at 11% www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
I presume these values are from the NOAA look up table. Recent work finds that they underestimate the heat index for very high values. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
If you are having trouble finding National Climate Assessment reports, they are here.
www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...
www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...
RealClimate: National Climate Assessment links
RealClimate: For some reason, it has become hard to locate the various National Climate Assessments (NCAs) that have been produced by the USGCRP over the decades (and it's pretty hard to find the USGR...
www.realclimate.org
Thank you for posting. I have hundreds of hours into these (2,3,4,& 5) . At taxpayer expense, I might add.
RealClimate: National Climate Assessment links
RealClimate: For some reason, it has become hard to locate the various National Climate Assessments (NCAs) that have been produced by the USGCRP over the decades (and it's pretty hard to find the USGR...
www.realclimate.org
If you are having trouble finding National Climate Assessment reports, they are here.
www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...
www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...
Data-driven upper bounds and event attribution for unprecedented heatwaves
The last decade has seen numerous record-shattering heatwaves in all corners of the globe. In the aftermath of these devastating events, there is inte…
www.sciencedirect.com
Probably not above the upper bound. But generally more than 7 standard deviations is "impossible" www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
"Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, droughts and heatwaves, are becoming more frequent and intense..." Present tense; attribution is recognized with this statement.
Congratulations Ben!!!
Reposted by Michael Wehner, Benjamin I. Cook
Tim Osborn
@timosbornclim.bsky.social
· Jul 21
Delighted to announce that Ben Santer is now an Honorary Professor @ueaenv.bsky.social & the Climatic Research Unit (CRU).
Ben is returning to his "academic home": he did his PhD in CRU before his stellar career developing "fingerprint" methods to identify human & natural effects on climate.
Ben is returning to his "academic home": he did his PhD in CRU before his stellar career developing "fingerprint" methods to identify human & natural effects on climate.
There are very few of us doing rigorous event attribution in the US. Extreme weather events are increasing but attribution scientists numbers are decreasing.😞
Reposted by Michael Wehner, Du Toit
What caused deadly landslides in Colombia? Finding out, should be easier. Tropical climates are complex, but if data are held by companies & organisations hiding them behind walls of bureaucracy it becomes impossible. @wwattribution.bsky.social study: www.worldweatherattribution.org/growing-expo...
ASCMO - Home
www.advances-statistical-climatology-meteorology-oceanography.net
And to further bridge the stats/climate gap, I started this journal to aid in cross field communication. www.advances-statistical-climatology-meteorology-oceanography.net
Reposted by Gavin A. Schmidt
Climate Science Needs Professional Statisticians - Eos
Climate science needs its own specialized “climostatisticians” as integral members of multidisciplinary research teams.
doi.org
Having engaged with numerous professional statisticians, I find this a gross over generalization. As with any cross-discipline, success requires two way communication. And there is a language barrier. But recent workshops are bridging this gap. See my opinion piece: doi.org/10.1029/2019...
When we wrote the Cat 6 hurricane article, we recognized that a single number cannot convey local danger that individuals might face & instead recommended that NHC products, especially maps, are superior. NHC warnings have also become more direct. i.e. "certain death". Such messages might help here